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September 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Did something change? Last few entries are way higher on PS3/360/3DS than earlier ones, I believe. Maybe I'm just seeing things.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
confuziz said:
GTA? I don't know why people keep forgetting this.
Click to expand...
Right, but I don't think that people see that this is going to shift hardware. The system prices are still stubbornly high, there are a combined 60mm+ HD consoles sold in the US already, and there wasn't any bump for GTA4 when it came out. Also new systems on the horizon, and the long-term trends in both systems are strongly negative.
 
C

confuziz

Banned
jvm said:
Right, but I don't think that people see that this is going to shift hardware. The system prices are still stubbornly high, there are a combined 60mm+ HD consoles sold in the US already, and there wasn't any bump for GTA4 when it came out. Also new systems on the horizon, and the long-term trends in both systems are strongly negative.
Click to expand...

I realise that. I just think that *some* people are going to buy the console just for GTA. I think 30-50k increase for each system is not unreasonable for a game that probably sold around 10 million copies just in the US.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Goldmund said:
I adjusted my numbers as well. Donny mentioned it:
Click to expand...
Eh. Not sure that's hitting on much.

confuziz said:
I realise that. I just think that *some* people are going to buy the console just for GTA. I think 30-50k increase for each system is not unreasonable for a game that probably sold around 10 million copies just in the US.
Click to expand...
On a base of, what, 64mm systems?

Also, I understand giving it a small bump from the game, but are you also taking into account the rate of erosion of sales that is already apparent in the trajectory? That is, if it gets a 30K bump but sales are decreasing at a rate of 10K each month, then you don't really get the full benefit of the 30K...

Edit: And, just to be clear, I would love to see sales move up a bit. I don't want anyone to fail or beat anyone else -- but I am naturally pessimistic about this whole enterprise right now, and I see GTA5 as a software win, not necessary a hardware win.
 
C

confuziz

Banned
jvm said:
Eh. Not sure that's hitting on much.

On a base of, what, 64mm systems?

Also, I understand giving it a small bump from the game, but are you also taking into account the rate of erosion of sales that is already apparent in the trajectory? That is, if it gets a 30K bump but sales are decreasing at a rate of 10K each month, then you don't really get the full benefit of the 30K...

Edit: And, just to be clear, I would love to see sales move up a bit. I don't want anyone to fail or beat anyone else -- but I am naturally pessimistic about this whole enterprise right now, and I see GTA5 as a software win, not necessary a hardware win.
Click to expand...

I think this is like the last hoorah for the systems. It will go downhill fast from here, this will be the last real jump in sales (well except with significant pricecuts that is)
 
A

airmangataosenai

Member
The sub-50k predictions are interesting here. If you guys think the bundle and price cut will have no effect, how are some still optimistic that the system can recover?
 
D

donny2112

Member
airmangataosenai said:
If you guys think the bundle and price cut will have no effect, how are some still optimistic that the system can recover?
Click to expand...

People have differing opinions. Nothing really surprising about that. Some people think Vita's going to recover, too.

Just under 22 hours left to predict for September.
 
H

hatchx

Banned
[360] 145k
[3DS] 160k
[PS3] 120k
[PSV] 35k
[WIU] 55k


Not a terrible month.

I really wonder if Nintendo will drop the WiiU to 249.99 in November alongside 3D World. It sort of makes sense.
 
M

michaelius

Banned
airmangataosenai said:
The sub-50k predictions are interesting here. If you guys think the bundle and price cut will have no effect, how are some still optimistic that the system can recover?
Click to expand...

Wii U was selling at <8k per week.
And that was before Nintendo killed sales for first 3 weeks of September with price cut and much more atractive bundle annoucement.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
michaelius said:
Wii U was selling at <8k per week.
And that was before Nintendo killed sales for first 3 weeks of September with price cut and much more atractive bundle annoucement.
Click to expand...

that, and you'd think there would have been some pr announcement about how console sales increased due to the price drop and bundle or something.

on the other hand, below 40k seems pretty low given recent averages. 40k is staying the course despite a price drop and new bundle. below that would be declining sales despite a price drop and new bundle.
 
E

Elios83

Member
My predictions haven't been really good this year so I've nothing to lose going a bit crazy a this point :D

[360] 160k
[3DS] 180k
[PS3] 170k
[PSV] 45k
[WIU] 60k
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Roughly four hours until we start getting NPD PR, Microsoft PR, and some kind of comment from Nintendo!

Remember, this reporting period is a 5-week month (compared to last reporting period's 4-week month), so in order for a platform to do "better" than last time, they have to beat the following numbers:

3DS - around 168K
360 - around 120K
PS3 - around 89K
WIU - around 39K
PSV - around 36K
 
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