Is that not what I wrote?
That would explain the relative difference. Still, I'm rather surprised.
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Black Friday 2015 sales result, hardware and software
- Thread starter Ryng_tolu
- Start date
Is that not what I wrote?
That would explain the relative difference. Still, I'm rather surprised.
Aaronrules380
Member
I'm saying that interpreting this data is really pretty useless, since we don't actually know the sample size except that it could be anywhere as high as 250000 people (but could also be significantly lower), it isn't representative, and thus it's hard to say. Not to mention since it compares by dollar value, that if you're trying to compute sales it isn't necessarily going to be one-one. And they never make it clear how they handled the sales that gave away a gift card with purchase. Did Xbone sales with a $60 gift card count as $240, or were gift card values ignored?
Orthogonal
Member
GTA V still charting in top 20 more than 2 years after release. Insane.
Mass Effect
Member
Which is why I initially didn't bring it up. I seriously doubt the bundle sold in any great numbers (relatively), and most certainly not enough to make up for the seemingly poor performance of the stand-alone game.
chromatic9
Member
neverknowsbest
Member
The sample size needed to get a +/- 1% confidence interval at a 95% confidence level for a population of 300 million is 9604. Sample size really isn't an issue here.
LordBaztion
Member
Well done MS, considering the bundles with the biggest titles were on PA4.
How would you know this? You're just throwing things at the wall.
Samurai G0SU
Member
Percents? Wtf .. Lol this is so silly.
Aaronrules380
Member
Doesn't that assume the sample is representative though? Aside from which, we have no idea how many people involved bought anything game related, let alone consoles.
pixellated_man
Member
With the results being so close for ps4 and xone and a less than perfect methodology used to measure sales, results could still go slightly in favor of xone or the margin for the ps4 win could be more than 1%.
One thing for sure though - ps4 outsold the xone for the month of November. The only way for the xone to gain a sales victory over ps4 for the month would have been a clear and decisive victory on Black Friday. That didn't happen. So yeah, I'm confident NPD results for November will show a comfortable lead for ps4.
One thing for sure though - ps4 outsold the xone for the month of November. The only way for the xone to gain a sales victory over ps4 for the month would have been a clear and decisive victory on Black Friday. That didn't happen. So yeah, I'm confident NPD results for November will show a comfortable lead for ps4.
Aaronrules380
Member
I don't. But one thing you learn in statistics is that you should never just assume a sample is representative just because you can't think of a reason it shouldn't be. There's a very good reason people stress taking random samples. And there is literally nothing random about this
They would have to take two different items on a receipt and cancel them both out...why would they do that?
Aaronrules380
Member
Because the deal was directly related, and shoppers probably took such things into account. Plus it means the amount of money the console brought in was effectively less, since the two were intrinsically linked by the deal
ethomaz
Banned
DAT 90%
hardcastlemccormick
Banned
I don't think it matters that much. We're not deducting $60 for every Uncharted bundle. It's basically the same thing as a bundled game. Money spent on a game console bundle is still money spent on a game console.
The only way the results would be skewed is if there were a very clear correlation between consumers likely to use the apps and preference for one console. It's broken down by percentages. I'm not sure what agenda you have, but you sure seem to have one in repeating yourself over and over.
Aaronrules380
Member
I mean, if you're trying to determine the amount of money it brought to the store, it's totally relevant. And if you're not, then why measure share in $ and not units sold?
Ricerocket
Member
Looks legit based on what I've read from here.
Aaronrules380
Member
I don't really care personally, I just think it's unreasonable to assume this is accurate for the larger population. But I don't have data for the app's demographics, nor do I know if this even accurately represents them since the data was taken by first responders (starting on Thanksgiving as well, so things with sales that started then would also likely be overestimated compared to things where the best sales started on black friday)
I just hope the total units isn't a huge YoY drop. All this BF decline talk has me a bit unsure,even though video games are a drop in a bucket in the overall scheme of things.
I think the assumptions are based on history more than using just this info as a single data point. There hasn't been any data brought forth to discredit the site's predictions to my knowledge. Last time there were a ton of people hugely skeptical, then NPD proved the data somewhat reliable,if not 100% accurate. I'm more interested in YoY performance myself for total HW and SW.
hardcastlemccormick
Banned
I think it evens itself out.
Because this is a PR stunt by a developer who wants to flaunt their data collection skills that they've invested in over multiple mobile apps? They're not going to give away everything they know. They're picking the least useful pieces of data that will get them into tech news headlines.
3rdamention
Member
The only way MS does that is if they keep it at$299 for good...They played that card last year with the promotional price drop...Kept it at $350 last holiday season, tried to raise it back up and sales dropped...Keeping it at $299 all of December would simply devalue it and MS worked all year trying to stabilize the system's value after that successful promotional price drop last year into this year, which became permanent..
Tallshortman
Member
Damn lol
AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
So you think an extra day will out do three weeks of pre-BF woop ass?
SmoothRunningGun
Member
The better Star Wars game did better.
statham
Member
no idea what you are talking about.
really hope this is a random pic, but I'm guessing you a hardcore fanboy who is juicing on whatever you think you are reading,
D
Deleted member 471617
Unconfirmed Member
Disappointed that Rise of the Tomb Raider couldn't crack the top twenty especially when it's far better than the majority of those games. UGH. Poor Crystal Dynamics. They develop one hell of a game that surpasses the 2013 reboot in every way but get sent out to die by Microsoft. *SMH* :'(
Lmao
gamechanger87
Member
For everyone crapping on their sample size, here is their estimate from last year. I'd say it was pretty on point.
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=942019&page=1
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=942019&page=1
Mass Effect
Member
The price for this went up today
The highest it's been in weeks
wrong thread?
lolol
Bitch Pudding
Member
Exactly. But regarding that 1% gap, we have to take the measuring inaccurancy into acount. In short, real numbers could be the other way around. Might as well be a proper tie.
That said, there shouldn't be any doubt now who won November...
statham
Member
WTF does my name has anything to do with with the topic?
Trolling it seems. It actually made me chuckle.
Mass Effect
Member
For everyone crapping on their sample size, here is their estimate from last year. I'd say it was pretty on point.
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=942019&page=1
For reference, here's Nov. 2014's NPD results:
XB1 - 1230K
PS4 - 830K
WIU - 240K
3DS - 515K
I can't find the 360 or PS3's numbers though. Surely the Wii U will be up YoY. Signs seem to point to yes. Someone from sales-GAF, did the 360 beat the Wii U last year in November?
? I don't know, I just thought your comment was funny.
Sectorseven
Member
Wasn't Microsoft giving out $60 gift cards with all their bundles?
Primethius
Banned
Only Walmart and Target had gift cards and that's where XB1 outsold the PS4 according to this data.
Fredrik
Member
One of the games I've played the most this generation, don't knock it, it's worth every sale, it's cheap, awesome and plays great on both consoles at 1080p locked 60fps with great controls. I'm playing it with my daughter, building stuff and exploring during the relatively safe daytime with her and going below to mine and kill stuff at the nights by myself. Fantastic game.
Pristine_Condition
Member
For everyone crapping on their sample size, here is their estimate from last year. I'd say it was pretty on point.
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=942019&page=1
Yeah, I remember Playstation fans deflecting these results last year, and then the NPDs came out and confirmed them to be pretty telling. If I was doing an NPD estimate, I'd feel pretty confident using this as another data point to educate my guess.
Makes me wonder how many of those PS4 bundles were sold. I noticed they were sold out at both big retailers I went to today.
That might be the saving grace for that game's performance. I certainly expected a higher chart position.
Again, bundles might help. But I saw a lot of Rise of the Tomb Raider bundles left in stacks at the same retailers that were sold out of PS4 Star Wars bundles, so I'm less inclined to make that leap of faith.
If this disappointing sales result for Rise of the Tomb Raider turns out to be the case, this might go down in history as one of the worst exclusive deals ever signed by a third-party for a major franchise, I'd think. I hope they made a shocking amount of upfront money on that deal -- like the ridiculous deal Rockstar got for GTA on 360 back in the day -- or this will be a huge blow for the Tomb Raider franchise.
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
Guys.... Please take an intro statistics course at your college. Just because this was "close" in the past doesn't mean this is a good methodology or this represents that total population. There are a lot of problems with their methodology of you're trying to say this absolutely represents the population.
The amount of people arguing with others without having even the most basic of comprehension of how statistics work, is really depressing.