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[oSoLucky]

I wonder if these deals MS strikes, such as the Target gift card end up worth it. They likely would have sold a ton without the deal, but probably not as many. I would imagine that the host store would eat some of the cost also, as it gets consumers to walk in the door there. Does anyone know particulars about these deals?

Guys.... Please take an intro statistics course at your college. Just because this was "close" in the past doesn't mean this is a good methodology or this represents that total population. There are a lot of problems with their methodology of you're trying to say this absolutely represents the population.

The amount of people arguing with others without having even the most basic of comprehension of how statistics work, is really depressing.

Where did you once see me say that I'm confident in the numbers? I stated that regardless of the method, people are confident due to the past results. Don't put words in my mouth. Statistics was required for my Management Information Systems and Mechanical Engineering degree paths, with my first one taken in my 2nd year of college in 2003. Don't talk down to me if you don't know me, especially if you are going to put words in my mouth.

 

[Intrigue]

For everyone crapping on their sample size, here is their estimate from last year. I'd say it was pretty on point.

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=942019&page=1

The story is pretty telling when you look at the results from last 2 years, the turnaround is quite remarkable.

2013: xbox1 31% vs ps4 15%
2014: xbox1 53% vs ps4 31%
2015: xbox1 41% vs ps4 42%

If the PS4 now just got some games imagine how it would do

Spoiler

/sarcasm

 

[ChoklitCow]

People doubted the InfoScout numbers last year and we all know how that turned out.

Granted, the methodology isn't exactly there. But I don't think it's fair to dismiss the hardware side of things so easily.

How did it end up? I came here to ask this question because I played it off last year and don't remember the actual outcome comparison

*edit* Well crap, this thread moved fast. Answer was above.

 

[Conduit]

No Destiny in top 20? Yikes...

And no ROTR.

 

[Pristine_Condition]

Who are the people who are buying all these sports games every year? They seem to have such little presence in gaming media yet dominate the sales charts.

Two of my cousins for sure. They buy all the big sports games every year like clockwork. Some years, it's all they buy.

Guys.... Please take an intro statistics course at your college. Just because this was "close" in the past doesn't mean this is a good methodology or this represents that total population. There are a lot of problems with their methodology of you're trying to say this absolutely represents the population.

If anything though, the results here would potentially be more accurate than they were last year, as the consumer saturation of smartphones have reached even more of the masses, especially in groups maybe less represented by the sample last year.

 

[catpurrcat]

Who are the people who are buying all these sports games every year? They seem to have such little presence in gaming media yet dominate the sales charts.

As I age, I notice colleagues buying systems day 1, then proceeding to buy the following 3 games EVERY year:
-CoD
-Madden
-NBA or NHL (it's Canada after all)

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

I wonder if these deals MS strikes, such as the Target gift card end up worth it. They likely would have sold a ton without the deal, but probably not as many. I would imagine that the host store would eat some of the cost also, as it gets consumers to walk in the door there. Does anyone know particulars about these deals?



Where did you once see me say that I'm confident in the numbers? I stated that regardless of the method, people are confident due to the past results. Don't put words in my mouth. Statistics was required for my Management Information Systems and Mechanical Engineering degree paths, with my first one taken in my 2nd year of college in 2003. Don't talk down to me if you don't know me, especially if you are going to put words in my mouth.

You've been arguing with people who have been discounting the numbers for the last page. And apparently you need to brush up on your statistics if you think that it's ok because it was "close" in the past. Just because video game journalism isn't calling out statistical methods doesn't mean anything.

 

[Sky Chief]

I don't buy these numbers at all. NBA 2K16 is third. These are way off.

 

[ChainThomp]

Guys.... Please take an intro statistics course at your college. Just because this was "close" in the past doesn't mean this is a good methodology or this represents that total population. There are a lot of problems with their methodology of you're trying to say this absolutely represents the population.

The amount of people arguing with others without having even the most basic of comprehension of how statistics work, is really depressing.

Seconded. SMH at the statistical ignorance in this thread. Sample size is essentially meaningless if it is not a random sample. This is not a random sample. This sample could systematically favor certain consoles or certain types of games, even if we don't know which types.

 

[oSoLucky]

You've been arguing with people who have been discounting the numbers for the last page. And apparently you need to brush up on your statistics if you think that it's ok because it was "close" in the past. Just because video game journalism isn't calling out statistical methods doesn't mean anything.

I discussed with Aaronrules that this is simply percentages, and a comparison between 3 manufacturers. There is no way to state that there is or is not a predominance of 1 demographic reporting without much more information. I also stated that people are confident due to the statistics being close in the past. The poster seemed to repeat himself about 5 times and I brought that up him/her. That is hardly arguing against anyone being skeptical of the results, but there is a precedent. This isn't the place for this though, and if you would like to keep discussing how much smarter you are than me, the please feel free to PM me.

 

[Night Angel]

Seconded. SMH at the statistical ignorance in this thread. Sample size is essentially meaningless if it is not a random sample. This is not a random sample. This sample could systematically favor certain consoles or certain types of games, even if we don't know which types.

Yep, it certainty could, so let's just completely ignore it and pretend it's meaningless, shall we?

 

[TheSpecialOne]

witcher 3 is number 20 but you got like 3 sport games up there? casuals disgust me. Witcher 3 is god tier, step your game up casuals.

Spoiler

im half joking

Since almost all the sports games there have a better framerate and better gameplay than the witcher 3, it's really not surprising.

 

[oSoLucky]

Yep, it certainty could, so let's just completely ignore it and pretend it's meaningless, shall we?

Not worth it. This is going down the exact same path as last time. It won't end until results are out.

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

I discussed with Aaronrules that this is simply percentages, and a comparison between 3 manufacturers. There is no way to state that there is or is not a predominance of 1 demographic reporting without much more information. I also stated that people are confident due to the statistics being close in the past. The poster seemed to repeat himself about 5 times and I brought that up him/her. That is hardly arguing against anyone being skeptical of the results, but there is a precedent. This isn't the place for this though, and if you would like to keep discussing how much smarter you are than me, the please feel free to PM me.

That IS the problem though. With statistics you're trying to disprove a null hypothesis, the burden of proof isn't on someone else to prove your methodology isn't shit. You're the one who has to prove the null that you think is wrong is actually wrong.

Again, past history and how close it was doesn't matter. I don't know why you keep bringing it up when it has zero bearing on this discussion.

 

[PuppetMaster]

Wow at Halo5 bomba! I guess no longer a driver for console sales anymore.

 

[border]

Wow at Halo5 bomba! I guess no longer a driver for console sales anymore.

It's the only game released in October that charted without huge discounts.

 

[oSoLucky]

That IS the problem though. With statistics you're trying to disprove a null hypothesis, the burden of proof isn't on someone else to prove your methodology isn't shit. You're the one who has to prove the null that you think is wrong is actually wrong.

Again, past history and how close it was doesn't matter. I don't know why you keep bringing it up when it has zero bearing on this discussion.

That is true statement. However, you're trying to make a point to me as to why the method of gathering data could be inaccurate and I have never once argued that. The entire point of my original posts was that there's no way to prove an older demographic uses the app vice a younger one, and it's maybe as likely that the data is accurate as unlikely.

The history point is important, because it is the whole reason why a lot of people are giving this particular site the benefit of the doubt, and that's why I started posting in this thread to start with. I don't give a shit about relative sales, only overall health. I have never once posted in a prediction thread, and rarely in NPD/Media Create/PAL Charts threads.

You can't definitively say the percentages gathered are wrong, and I'm certainly not trying to definitively say they're right, yet that's what you're attacking me for. Precedent absolutely mean something, however, and I would tend to fall on the side of believing in the face of utter dismissal on a trivial issue such as video game sales until a trend of being incorrect is observed.

TL;DR:
You're arguing against me for a point that I'm not trying to make, and I told you why I'm not completely dismissing the site. I keep bringing it up because that is the discussion that I was having and not on the statistical accuracy of the aggregate data.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Fallout 4 at #8 have they lost their damned minds?

 

[Skux]

Some crazy long legs on Minecraft and GTAV, damn...

 

[ANDS]

I'm saying that interpreting this data is really pretty useless

I've looked at your posts in this thread and I'm getting a massive "Intro to Stats 101" vibe here. In particular your insistence that the 250K responses "aren't random" which is a nonsense claim to make. I'm not going to suggest that I am an expert on survey methods (which this is) but dismissing the results without actually backing up your dismissal comes off a bit silly. The data on hand is hardly useless. It points to per purchase behavior of a good number of American shoppers. That isn't "useless."

. . .we don't actually know the sample size except that it could be anywhere as high as 250000 people (but could also be significantly lower), it isn't representative, and thus it's hard to say.

This sentence makes no sense whatsoever. How can you claim that their bank of users isn't a good representation of the American shopping public on Black Friday (whose behavior this report aims to estimate)? The InfoScout app is free and available on Android and Apple platforms, and smart phone use is pretty standard in the US; it is most definitely going to be standard among Black Friday shoppers. If you're going to argue that the group of people using InfoScout to report shopping habits is significantly different than the US shopping population at large, you need to back that up with more than "it isn't representative."

That IS the problem though. With statistics you're trying to disprove a null hypothesis, the burden of proof isn't on someone else to prove your methodology isn't shit. You're the one who has to prove the null that you think is wrong is actually wrong.

To to the first, no you aren't. To the second, assuming you are saying what I think you are saying, this is impossible to do.

Again, past history and how close it was doesn't matter. I don't know why you keep bringing it up when it has zero bearing on this discussion.

Depending on how often they have done this, it speaks to the legitimacy of their method.

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

I've looked at your posts in this thread and I'm getting a massive "Intro to Stats 101" vibe here. In particular your insistence that the 250K responses "aren't random" which is a nonsense claim to make. I'm not going to suggest that I am an expert on survey methods (which this is) but dismissing the results without actually backing up your dismissal comes off a bit silly. The data on hand is hardly useless. It points to per purchase behavior of a good number of American shoppers. That isn't "useless."



This sentence makes no sense whatsoever. How can you claim that their bank of users isn't a good representation of the American shopping public on Black Friday (whose behavior this report aims to estimate)? The InfoScout app is free and available on Android and Apple platforms, and smart phone use is pretty standard in the US; it is most definitely going to be standard among Black Friday shoppers. If you're going to argue that the group of people using InfoScout to report shopping habits is significantly different than the US shopping population at large, you need to back that up with more than "it isn't representative."



To to the first, no you aren't. To the second, assuming you are saying what I think you are saying, this is impossible to do.



Depending on how often they have done this, it speaks to the legitimacy of their method.

The only way I'm wrong or it's confusing is when you read half of a sentence which is clearly what you did.

 

[kittoo]

I think Battlefront was stupidly low because of no good deals on it and maybe it doesn't include PS4 bundles? I don't know it does seem like it didn't do too hot though.

I would like to think that it was because of the lack of proper single player story in battlefront.

Spoiler

I am probably wrong though

. I don't like the trend of multiplayer only or multiplayer focussed games trend

 

[nib95]

I would like to think that it was because of the lack of proper single player story in battlefront.

Spoiler

I am probably wrong though

. I don't like the trend of multiplayer only or multiplayer focussed games trend

I'm with you on that. And I agree, I hope a lack of single player is a reason that Battlefront and Rainbow Six potentially underperformed, so in future these sorts of games actually include a proper campaign. I still can't believe there isn't one in Battlefront. What a damn waste.

 

[ANDS]

The only way I'm wrong or it's confusing is when you read half of a sentence which is clearly what you did.

I propose a third option: you're not quite sure what the words you're saying actually mean. You suggested someone taken an "Intro to Stats" course; I would propose you review yours (presuming you've taken one). I bolded the portions of your reply that sink the entirety of your comment.

"With statistics you're trying to disprove the null hypothesis" - on the whole this is a silly statement, and it's just not true. Aside from a few toy examples, you can not prove or disprove an underlying population value, you can simply argue that the evidence does or does not support it's hypothesized value.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I can't find the 360 or PS3's numbers though. Surely the Wii U will be up YoY. Signs seem to point to yes. Someone from sales-GAF, did the 360 beat the Wii U last year in November?

Yup.
360 outsold Wii U in November of last year, 306k VS 242k.

Wow Super Mario Maker did better than Battlefront.

 

[Amused]

What we don't know based on these numbers, is how many bought the "not-$299-ps4s" and how many bought the "not-$299-Xbones". There were other bundles, right? Were some of them more compelling than others - resulting in more dollars, but a lower number of consoles sold?

And who won BF? The company who made more money (which is way more complicated than looking at how much money your product sold for on a given day/month/year btw) or the company who sold more units? As far as the NPD goes i guess it is the latter - and these numbers don't really tell us all that much in that respect.

That being said, and even though there are a lot of weaknesses here, I do believe that some form of trend can be observed from these numbers - especially when we know the numbers from the last few years and how they compared to the actual results.

As far as I can tell it is pretty much a given that the PS4 and the X1 are far closer in BF-sales this year than they were last year.

 

[viHuGi]

Wow NPD should be really close, Europe and Japan is what is setting ps4 apart because NA it's so close.

 

[madstarr12]

Hmm, close for PS4 and XB1. Well, although XB1 had a victory last year, it was also higher in 2013 and PS4 still outsold it in the month of November 2013. Since this was info on Black Friday sales, it all comes down to how well each system sold earlier in the month.

 

[RedAssedApe]

It's the only game released in October that charted without huge discounts.

Moral victory I guess.

 

[driver116]

Guess my prediction in the other thread was right.
I'm guessing pre-orders for BF + CoD will push PS4 to a comfortable victory in Nov - and Dec too by the looks of it.
Nice try though Microsoft.

 

[slavesnyder]

Guess my prediction in the other thread was right.
I'm guessing pre-orders for BF + CoD will push PS4 to a comfortable victory in Nov - and Dec too by the looks of it.
Nice try though Microsoft.

Microsoft can be satisfied with the BF result if it's a tie.
XboxOne was as cheap as last year, PS4 was cheaper than ever.
So a tie is a great outcome for them (also what I expected, ha!).

For complete November this is a different situation as preorders will give Sony a huge lead in the end.

 

[Cyborg]

Microsoft can be satisfied with the BF result if it's a tie.
XboxOne was as cheap as last year, PS4 was cheaper than ever.
So a tie is a great outcome for them (also what I expected, ha!).

For complete November this is a different situation as preorders will give Sony a huge lead in the end.

I thought X1 had a 299 pricepoint with a bundle?

 

[Behlel]

I thought X1 had a 299 pricepoint with a bundle?

And 60$ card from target irrc.

 

[Chobel]

That software chart feels so off. I doubt it's representative for the whole market.

And the issue is not the sample size. It's whether the sample is actually random and not biased.

 

[Occam]

If the PS4 now just got some games imagine how it would do /sarcasm

"Sarcasm: the use of words that mean the opposite of what you really want to say especially in order to insult someone, to show irritation, or to be funny"

So you are saying despite it really having games, it's still not doing better?

 

[Ryng_tolu]

That software chart feels so off. I doubt it's representative for the whole market.

And the issue is not the sample size. It's whether the sample is actually random and not biased.

Remember this is just Black Friday, not the intere month of November.
Also, i don't know if this chart including bundle... If this chart don't including bundle, seem reasonable imo.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

This is only infoscout data...

 

[Nibel]

Since no one maked a thread...

You will edit this sentence right now Ryng

 

[wachie]

How in the hell did NFS: Rivals even chart? Game was released 2 years ago..

Lots of new systems in play these days and the dads & moms picking up dont know the difference between Rivals and the new NFS. One is a lot cheaper, super easy.

 

[slavesnyder]

You will edit this sentence right now Ryng

Potrai modificare questa frase momento Ryng

 

[Chobel]

Remember this is just Black Friday, not the intere month of November.
Also, i don't know if this chart including bundle... If this chart don't including bundle, seem reasonable imo.

One day (weekend) or not, TTK should be in that top 20. And Fallout 4 and Battlefront are lower than they should be.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Potrai modificare questa frase momento Ryng

*Tu modificherai questa frase in questo momento Ryng.

One day (weekend) or not, TTK should be in that top 20. And Fallout 4 and Battlefront are lower than they should be.

Most of TTK sales are from the bundle. Like Star Wars.
And even if Fallout 4 launch was strong, i can see it selling less than many sports or kids games during Black Friday.
Remember, in UK the Second week drop was pretty huge. ( -80% ).

 

[slavesnyder]

Software charts are all over the place as people buy cheap on Black Friday.
And retailers advertise the cheap stuff, not the new stuff.
So, even newer games will be bought less when they are not discounted.
As numbers are sales, and not revenue, a price-slashed old game will outsell a newer one, while maybe revenue is higher on the latter.

 

[Kayant]

Keep in mind the sample size is not all about consoles/game software they track more than that and we don't know the percentage that is pure gaming iirc still them being so close in hardware makes sense to an extend IMO because of prices being similar although XB1 still having the better value bundles.

 

[goonergaz]

Seems Sony managed to kill the only advantage XBO had (sales wise in the calander), if this translates into NPD 'reality' then MS must be wondering what they need to do to try and keep close to PS4 because historically Sony pull away during the early months of the year and they have Uncharted out in March.

 

[kyser73]

Do Infoscout include a demographic breakdown of their users?

Because that would be astonishingly useful in this thread. I'm skeptical of any survey that's based around self-selection as the only means of creating your sample group unless the results are weighted against actual populations to account for the problem of bias inherent inherent in this kind of survey.

 

[Big Green Anus]

Wow, Battlefront sales are not high, which is what I expected from a multiplayer only game with little content. I'm still surprised to see Fallout 4 doing SO well.

 

[Asd202]

Yep Sony won November.

 

[stryke]

Even if the sample size is big, couldn't it be affected by factors such as that out of coincidence the people purchasing PS4s are more likely to have the app?

 

[Percy]

Wii U did a lot better than I dared hope. Great to see.

But... I can't help but recall how after E3 we had a lot of talk about how 'the greatest line up in Xbox history' was supposed to crush PS4 sales this holiday season because PS4 had no games this year. Admittedly I thought Xbone would sell better here as well... guess not. Though I did also predict Halo 5 would be the worst performing mainline Halo ever by a long way so one outta two ain't bad I guess.

RIP Tomb Raider too.