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Jefferies Equity Analyst: Mario Kart 8D a "mega-hit on a different scale altogether"

There are the people who are happy, like you and I, and the people saying it is the most innovative and groundbreaking console ever made, and will sell 20 million in its first year.

So what? Why do you give a shit? Let people dream if they want. If they consider it innovative, then who are you or I to tell them they're wrong? I rather that than the twenty Nintendo is doomed posts.
 
Are Nintendo even bundling it? I know that help the Wii version sell ridiculously well over time. Eitherway still massively impressive and I can see it becoming the Switch's by far best seller in time.
It and BoTW are already must buys whenever I decide to get a Switch.

Nothing is bundled with it on a wide scale.
 

Son Of D

Member
Are Nintendo even bundling it? I know that help the Wii version sell ridiculously well over time. Eitherway still massively impressive and I can see it becoming the Switch's by far best seller in time.
It and BoTW are already must buys whenever I decide to get a Switch.
I think there was a leaked bundle. If that is the case I can see that being the holidays SKU.
 

Doorman

Member
Curiosity: Does the record-setting series sales of 8 Deluxe being "obvious" or not actually make it less of a business success? Does Nintendo get less of a share of the money rolling in from this game because "well not enough other things came out so people are starved for games"? How many games is the average console gamer expected to play within the first two months of a brand new system's life? Sales of Zelda exceeded the number of systems sold to play the game on. 8D is the fastest selling game in a series with some of the highest sales ceilings the industry has ever seen and have consistently proved to be some of the longest sellers (didn't Mario Kart DS continue to show up in sales charts literally like 5+ years after it released?). These are successes, "expected" or otherwise. If it's selling a ton because people are starved, then that's just money sailing over the heads of third parties and straight into Nintendo's pocket because they were (understandably) afraid of jumping in early. And...that's Nintendo's fault now? Pretty sure their massive checks will continue to clear.

As a Switch owner, I already have a backlog of more games than I have time to beat. Don't even have Mario Kart, though I suppose I'll likely get it eventually. At this point I don't personally expect the "drought" to be an issue. And either way, the cumulative library is only going to get stronger. Games like Zelda and Mario Kart will continue to be enticing to new Switch owners in September just as they are now. I don't know if 8 Deluxe will become the best selling Mario Kart ever or anything so grandiose, but financially it's already a win for Nintendo, one that's only going to become a smarter investment for them over time.
 

KahooTs

Member
I'd like to know by what 'different scale' MK8 Switch is a mega-hit. It is one of the big 3's biggest system selling franchise. This isn't new, this is just what Mario Kart is. The real question is why was it seemingly unexpected.
 

defferoo

Member
ugh... analysts don't know what they're talking about....the Switch install base is tiny compared to the Wii install base when MK was released. Here's why the attach rate of MK8D is so high: nobody bought MK8 on Wii U (relative to MKWii) and there aren't any other big games on Switch besides Zelda. Not to mention, Mario Kart is a staple Nintendo franchise. If you own a Nintendo system and not Mario Kart, you're in the minority. yes, MK8D will do well, but here's no way it'll do 5-10x better than Mario Kart Wii.
 
IMO record sales are gonna be hard given that it's racing the hardware total.

Wii had blown up months/years before MKWii, ditto on DS
If it keeps selling for years like GTA it could do it

I could see everyone buying a switch picking up Mario kart as their first game
 
I'd like to know by what 'different scale' MK8 Switch is a mega-hit. It is one of the big 3's biggest system selling franchise. This isn't new, this is just what Mario Kart is. The real question is why was it seemingly unexpected.

Because people thought "Well, if MK8 couldn't make the Wii U sell, why would it make the Switch sell?".
 
I'd like to know by what 'different scale' MK8 Switch is a mega-hit. It is one of the big 3's biggest system selling franchise. This isn't new, this is just what Mario Kart is. The real question is why was it seemingly unexpected.

It's a upgraded port of a years old game from a system most diehard fans already bought. Common consensus dictates that most of these sort of ports or remasters don't usually outpace what the original sold at, especially on an exclusive platform. Everyone expected MK8D to do well, it's Mario Kart and a critically acclaimed iteration. But they did not expect it to do THAT well.
 

ThisGuy

Member
Switch gonna surpass ps4 in no time flat. Its just too good to be stopped. If Sony makes a move ninty gonna switch it up on 'em.
 

Cuburt

Member
Yeah there's literally no other thing that switch owners could spend money on, they couldn't buy other games on other systems or spend their money on a multitude of other things, they're practically being forced at gunpoint to buy MK8 so it's no surprise the sales were that high.

Can confirm. Mario personally broke into my house, put a gun to my head, and whispered, "Let's-a go".

These 2 posts in a row had me in literal tears.
 

CrisKre

Member
Thanks for the info! I'll reply to you about 3DW here as well. I agree it may not see a port for a long time if ever. One thing I think we could see down the line though as an effort for further evergreen monetization of software is a Wii U port line for games like Tropical Freeze and 3DW, perhaps digital only, or perhaps in bundles like 3DL+3DW or DKCR+TF or WWHD+TPHD in one game apiece.

I believe 3d World might eventually get ported mainly because of its multiplayer aspect. It could become very successful due to how much of a fit it would be in tabletop mode and how ideal multiplayer gameplay is on switch.

I know I would double dip.
 

Neiteio

Member
I'd double-dip on a Super Mario 3D World + Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker collection.

3D World actually makes a ton of sense on Switch, with its built-in local multiplayer.
 

gafneo

Banned
I don't disagree one is coming, though I'm less convinced of a 3DS entry than I once was. But I wasn't disagreeing that Metroid is being made, only that Reggie said this, since he hasn't formally said so. He's only alluded to it, albeit significantly so.
I am certain that a 3DS Metroid is coming. What makes me so certain? Remember that time Nintendo made a handheld device without a Metroid adventure game? Me neither.
 

Neiteio

Member
I am certain that a 3DS Metroid is coming. What makes me so certain? Remember that time Nintendo made a handheld device without a Metroid adventure game? Me neither.
What was the Metroid title on the NDS? Are you counting Hunters and Pinball? Why count those but not Federation Force, which is already on 3DS?
 
No one is getting pissy about these games selling well.
People are having issues with delusional fanboys acting like Switch is the second coming two months into its launch.
I'm sure people are happy it's selling well. It's fantastic for the industry.

No one called out Sony fanboys that bought a PS4 early that spammed "boom" and "the king is back" everywhere while the console wasn't worth it. Now that you can't just play everything on PS3, 4 actually has the support its sales suggest. At this point I hope Switch is really the second coming so it doesn't inexplicably skip every game like the Wii U(and many consoles before it) did.
 

Neiteio

Member
Why no 3d Land?
I looove 3D Land, but I dunno... Feels a bit redundant next to 3D World. Would feel more appropriate to bundle in Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker, IMO, which began life as an offshoot of 3D World and expands upon the Toad stages in 3D World.

Also, Treasure Tracker is ridiculously pretty, and I'd love to take screenshots of it!
 

defferoo

Member
Who suggested it was going to sell over 350 million?

this Jefferies analyst:
”No, this is not just any ordinary success. The scale of this success is many times bigger than what is visible with ‘MK8D sales of 459K units exceeded MKWii sales of 405K'. Analyzing the scale, we realize that like-for-like, MK8D is mega-hit on a different scale altogether (maybe 5-10x better)."

and if that's not what they meant, they need to go take some writing classes. anyway, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is gonna sell boatloads cause Switch is doing great. It was pretty obvious given how well Switch has been selling since launch. not sure what these "analysts" were thinking.

EDIT: Here's the original article. http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nintendo-stock-switch-2017-5-1001984791

Note the emphasis on install base and attach rate.
Recall that MK-Wii was launched 17 months after Wii launch (Nov-2006). My 31Mar'08, Wii had a global installed base of 24.45m (Switch was at c. 2.74m by '17 Mar-end) and its installed base in The Americas was 10.6m (Switch was 1.2m).

This guy actually thinks that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe will be a huge success because of first month sales being higher than Mario Kart Wii with a much smaller install base (basically 10% of Wii). So being the great analyst he is, he turns this into "mega-hit that might be 5-10x better" cause you know, same sales at 1/10 of install base = at least 5, if not 10x the success. How can this be his conclusion? First of all, this is not sustainable, the Switch is supply limited, at some point the game will saturate the current install base and sales will drop, A LOT. That said, it's also an evergreen title, so it will continue selling for years. The first month of data is the worst thing to base lifetime sales off of for evergreen titles like this, especially in a market that is starved for big games like on the Switch. The game will sell well for the first month, then it will drop to some steady state for the remainder of the console's lifetime.
 
No one called out Sony fanboys that bought a PS4 early that spammed "boom" and "the king is back" everywhere while the console wasn't worth it. Now that you can't just play everything on PS3, 4 actually has the support its sales suggest. At this point I hope Switch is really the second coming so it doesn't inexplicably skip every game like the Wii U(and many consoles before it) did.
The early PS4 days were pretty barren indeed.
I assume you mean skip every game as in miss the ship on 3rd party tentpoles? It's the trouble of doing their own generational jumps. The tech is just far enough behind where it makes it not worth the trouble to port, short of moving the resolution a step down.
 

gafneo

Banned
What was the Metroid title on the NDS? Are you counting Hunters and Pinball? Why count those but not Federation Force, which is already on 3DS?
I'm talking about a full fledged single player game. It's going to be 2D. Federation Fource is a spin off. People don't seem to understand that was made for fun as a side project originally slated for DSi.
 

Neiteio

Member
I'm talking about a full fledged single player game. It's going to be 2D. Federation Fource is a spin off. People don't seem to understand that was made for fun as a side project originally slated for DSi.
But you're saying that every past Nintendo portable has a full-fledged traditional Metroid game. This isn't true, however; the NDS only had Hunters and Pinball, both spinoffs like Federation Force.
 

gafneo

Banned
But you're saying that every past Nintendo portable has a full-fledged traditional Metroid game. This isn't true, however; the NDS only had Hunters and Pinball, both spinoffs like Federation Force.
Nah Hunters is not a spin off. It's a Prime adventure game staring Samus. Federation Fource is its own thing with nods to Metroid.
 

KahooTs

Member
It's a upgraded port of a years old game from a system most diehard fans already bought. Common consensus dictates that most of these sort of ports or remasters don't usually outpace what the original sold at, especially on an exclusive platform. Everyone expected MK8D to do well, it's Mario Kart and a critically acclaimed iteration. But they did not expect it to do THAT well.

So common consensus took no consideration of the Wii U's market position or the last few months worth of Switch information. So my question remains why?
and if that's not what they meant, they need to go take some writing classes.
Yeah I agree, it's not what was meant but it is terribly worded
 

Neiteio

Member
Nah Hunters is not a spin off. It's a Prime adventure game staring Samus. Federation Fource is its own thing with nods to Metroid.
Hunters is absolutely a spinoff. The single-player in it is not structured like a traditional Metroid game.

A spinoff can still have a canon story. What constitutes a spinoff is a deviation in gameplay.
 

samar11

Member
I think every Nintendo game is going to have a amazing attach rate, I mean there isnt much to choose from apart from Nintendo games lol. Not that its a bad thing, as the only reason my girlfriend got a switch was for nintendo games, not COD, Destiny etc
 

Emu-Fred

Banned
Wow guys really beating your chest this early in the game?

So what if it's fastest selling mario kart?

Doesn't seem like anything to me.

Its waaaay to early to tell guys. It's gonna be a bigger failure than Wii-u, Believe it!
 
So common consensus took no consideration of the Wii U's market position or the last few months worth of Switch information. So my question remains why?

Because they did not consider the possibility that the mainstream market might have bought this system and not the Wii U and want a new Mario kart they never played before.
 

Ryoku

Member
Wow guys really beating your chest this early in the game?

So what if it's fastest selling mario kart?

Doesn't seem like anything to me.

Its waaaay to early to tell guys. It's gonna be a bigger failure than Wii-u, Believe it!

Okay, Naruto.
 

DMONKUMA

Junior Member
Nah Hunters is not a spin off. It's a Prime adventure game staring Samus. Federation Fource is its own thing with nods to Metroid.

Isn't FF canon tho as well?

Anyways I hope Arms is a big success as well. Looks like the coolest thing Nintendo is put out this year.
 

samar11

Member
Wow guys really beating your chest this early in the game?

So what if it's fastest selling mario kart?

Doesn't seem like anything to me.

Its waaaay to early to tell guys. It's gonna be a bigger failure than Wii-u, Believe it!

one side saying wii numbers and then you got people like this guy saying less then wii u numbers, crazies on both sides lol
 

brad-t

Member
There are a lot of people that were waiting for this game to be on a piece of actually desirable hardware — myself included. Saying that people bought it because the Switch lacks games is ignoring the obvious perspective that people bought the Switch because they wanted ]to play Mario Kart 8D (and likely BOTW too, of course) in the first place.
 

gamerMan

Member
I'd double-dip on a Super Mario 3D World + Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker collection.

3D World actually makes a ton of sense on Switch, with its built-in local multiplayer.

That's right. I really hope that Nintendo comes up with a family plan for digital purchases. Mario Kart's local multiplayer is amazing across multiple Switches, but right now everybody has to own a copy even if they are in the same family. I would love to play Super Mario 3D World across multiple Switches as you wouldn't get stuck on the edge of the screen waiting for the other players. Even Pikmin 3 would be amazing.
 
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