gundamkyoukai
Member
Then he is naive since matt already knew about it anyway .
So even if it took longer to get the numbers here it would have not matter .
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July 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, August 8th
Then he is naive since matt already knew about it anyway .
So even if it took longer to get the numbers here it would have not matter .
bryanee
Member
As has already been said, Matt from NPD already knows where its being leaked. Any one can figure it out with a 2 second google search which makes the leakers request all the dumber. The leaker is being ridiculous and naive.
Like I said if the leaker is that concerned about his well being, job or whatever then he should stop.
ethomaz
Banned
Because it is public.
That is ignorance because I'm in any way being disrespectful to the leaker talking about the data that he made public. The opposite I'm glad that somebody is leaking the data and I even thanks the leaker for doing that here, there or any other place.
Edit - I just imagined an outdoor on time square where you read "I ask that nobody read this text..."
The leaker said that the delay until the leaks hit GAF it's good for his own protection, so even if someone think it doesn't matter, why not respect a simply wish of a person that is helping us for nothing?
I'm pretty sure 100% of people that like to follow sales will have access to the numbers, there's no need in run to post on GAF if the leaker thinks it's better not do.
Anyway, mods will probably say that this matter should not be discussed in the thread, so...
Mikey Jr.
Member
Because npd leak lists the top 3 hardware.
The lowest selling is 3ds with 105k. So people are saying XB1 must be 104k or lower, most likely 100k or lower.
I have absolutely no idea if this is true or not. No idea how these leaks work.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Well to be honest I would have just went with his request. Hopefully the NPD ninjas don't hurt the guy.
Looks like I was right in my assessment but off with my numbers. Splatoon debut is ok but it still is very much a Japanese centric pheneonon. Switch numbers lower than I anticipated and Ps4 higher. Been a good year for the dedicated market.
Sammy Samusu
Member
I love when talent wins!
Gogogo Switch!
Third parties rushing their games. Porting everything. 1080p/30fps for all. Fire everywhere!
Gogogo Switch!
Third parties rushing their games. Porting everything. 1080p/30fps for all. Fire everywhere!
mejin
Member
Mister Megative
Banned
So Switch stock gettin better, still not enough to meet demand? Sound right? My local GameStop and BB still can't keep em on shelves.
FinaruDensetsu
Member
Ah I see. I had thought those were just the three that had been leaked so far. Didn't know it was the top 3.
Eh in the grand scheme of things though 100k would still be respectable. That's only a difference of 120k or so between PS4 and XB1. I think nobody here is really surprised considering the XB1X is coming and is probably hurting demand for the regular model in the present.
Sounds like it, yes.
Primethius
Banned
I'm sorry but that's dumb as hell.
Posting the data is a risk so he put it on a public website? This is the Internet.
GAF was going to discuss the numbers regardless. If the leaker is concerned with risk, don't post it on a public website and rely on anonymous users.
For me the last E3 was the definitive proof of how Xbox is weak at the moment. They don't have big third-party deals anymore, they don't have a strong first part. $500 for play multiplat tittles a litte better than on PS4 Pro will be a hard sell.
It's strange how the things came to this point, sounds a bad planning or simply they doesn't have the money anymore.
Graphics Horse
Member
Although Japan Stock was disproportionate in July, they sold more than the US!
Shambala
Member
Y r u hoping for crashs downfall. U said the same thing in the other chart thread and got shot down by the very next post. U want the game to fail or something?
Primethius
Banned
Its Noobie. Ignore him.
Obliterator
Member
100k is not a respectable number if it ends up being accurate
SneakersSO
Member
X1X has been coming since June 2016; didn't stop Xbox One S from beating PS4 in a few NPDs. This is the result of a much larger issue. 100k is an absolute disaster. There is no way to spin that figure, even with the X1X launch looming, which is a product whose preorders haven't even gone up, meaning users haven't been able to put money towards it yet.
If consumers were indeed waiting for X1X in large quantities, then PS4 would also be down YoY, but they aren't; PS4 is up YoY & by surprising percentages if i'm being honest.
bigedole
Member
What are you suggesting is the issue? Seems like it was less than a year ago that the 1S beat the PS4 for a month or two, what is causing a decline like this? Seems unlikely that it's due to customers withholding a purchase until the 1X release since the biggest volume of buyers seems to be dominated by price conscientious consumers.
Shin
Banned
Lack of exclusive games IMO is the cause of this, 1st, 2nd or 3rd party.
Perhaps it finally caught up to them, who knows really we'll see next month.
Obliterator
Member
I think people are just losing faith in it as a platform. A lot of those S sales were from original Xbox One users upgrading (though I'm sure it brought in some new buyers as well)
But at this point? If you are a middle of the road gamer who doesn't feel any sort of personal attachment to the Xbox Brand why would you buy one in terms of upcoming software? Crackdown 3? State of Decay 2? Sea of Thieves? I'm not shitting on these games and saying they are or will be bad, they may he great. But I really don't see how any of those titles really grabs and brings in New purchasers especially in comparison to the huge amount if software PS4 has been and will be receiving this / next year
FinaruDensetsu
Member
But we're now 3 months out. Wouldn't the affect on the current model be stronger as we get closer to release of the X?As for the effect on the PS4, maybe it's because the potential purchases for the X don't really overlap with potential purchasers of the PS4.
I dunno, but I think MS is still going to sell an absolutely HUGE number of Xbox Ones (regular and X models) during holidays. Selling a bit fewer during the slow summers months I don't think is a big deal to them as long as they sell big during holidays.
It was the perfect storm. The industry grew so quickly last gen that Western AAA third party exclusives were not a viable option moving forward. Few developers would be willing to forgo half the market and even if they were willing to do so the game would need to be a massive hit in order to break even. For all its faults the Kinect offered them a new market where they could still make money due to relatively low development costs but that market disappeared this gen. So all MS has now are the first party tent pole franchises that also have been going through some serious soul searching this gen. FH has been their best franchise. It is ashame that we don't much care for racing in the US. It is a tough uphill battle for them. I think the best they could do is prepare for next gen except they have a new console coming out in 3 months.
SneakersSO
Member
They haven't just been selling fewer in the summer months - they've sold fewer this whole year compared to earlier years, and this is coming off the strong holiday season the Xbox One S had in 2016. MS is absolutely going to do stronger numbers in the holiday season - they have new hardware coming that is tailor made for their hardcore audience. But as we have seen every year for MS this generation: selling high in the holidays does not offset the sales delta for the rest of the year in NA or UK.
And no, if the X1X was siphoning away users who were looking to purchase into this console generation, then both numbers (PS4 & X1) would be affected, chiefly because the X1X's key marketing pitch is meant to disarm one of the PS4's perceived strongest points, which is that they were the strongest console on the market. Sony's doing fantastic numbers & MS is doing some of their worst, and this has basically been the sales narrative for NA/UK for almost the whole year.
They planned wisely if you ask me!
gundamkyoukai
Member
I think you have to ask your self is why do think the people looking to spend $250 are waiting to spending $500 instead .
You have the core that going to upgrade but how long is that going to last .
Also unless MS sell a huge amount of consoles during holidays they going to down YoY by a good amount.
Which is also there strongest market .
Obliterator
Member
And this is one of the most important metrics. Its not a sign of hardware / the generation in general slowing down. PS4 is putting up its strongest numbers YTD of any year since it launched in 2017, and Xbox One is on track for a very very poor year.
That alone pretty much shows you there is something very wrong going on specifically with the Xbox brand itself
Katana_Strikes
Member
Great to see numbers.
If MS were serious about being competitive, they'd have heavily invested in 1st party this gen. It's funny how some say Sony are doing nothing yet they have such strong software from both 1st and 3rd party across the globe and it's selling systems. MS are the ones that have fell asleep and sales are slowing in their best market and none existent mostly everywhere else. Adding nice features to your system and having stuff like GamePass is all well and good but those aren't system sellers. Software is always king and the one with the most and best always wins.
I hope they've got something up their sleeves beyond their new expensive upgrade, because come January it'll be back to square one for the system and they'll be back to hyping Halo/Gears/Forza for the fall. If they aren't investing big in 1st party for the end of the gen and trying to gain Japanese support, then next gen is probably going to be worse than this gen for them. Sony have created some big new IP this gen and their tentpole franchises are going from strength to strength. There are no new big IPs MS have so far this gen, and their tentpoles are weakening and that's only going to hurt more as time goes on if they don't get their finger out.
If MS were serious about being competitive, they'd have heavily invested in 1st party this gen. It's funny how some say Sony are doing nothing yet they have such strong software from both 1st and 3rd party across the globe and it's selling systems. MS are the ones that have fell asleep and sales are slowing in their best market and none existent mostly everywhere else. Adding nice features to your system and having stuff like GamePass is all well and good but those aren't system sellers. Software is always king and the one with the most and best always wins.
I hope they've got something up their sleeves beyond their new expensive upgrade, because come January it'll be back to square one for the system and they'll be back to hyping Halo/Gears/Forza for the fall. If they aren't investing big in 1st party for the end of the gen and trying to gain Japanese support, then next gen is probably going to be worse than this gen for them. Sony have created some big new IP this gen and their tentpole franchises are going from strength to strength. There are no new big IPs MS have so far this gen, and their tentpoles are weakening and that's only going to hurt more as time goes on if they don't get their finger out.
Jarod McChicken
Member
So at this point of time the PS4 is up year on year at least in the US and in Japan.
[USA] 1,997,423 in 2017 vs 1,741,362 in 2016 (NPD)
[Japan] 1,047,994 in 2017 vs 776,849 in 2016 (Media Create)
[USA] 1,997,423 in 2017 vs 1,741,362 in 2016 (NPD)
[Japan] 1,047,994 in 2017 vs 776,849 in 2016 (Media Create)
Graphics Horse
Member
Yeah it just lowers my expectations for global shipments a little, thinking it will be around equal for Japan and The Americas now.
Dark Cloud
Member
Splatoon 2 with 332K with just physical is very good.
DriftingSpirit
Member
X will do fine in the holidays but it is sustaining that after the holidays that is the problem. The same thing happened with S. MS has no problem getting an uptick in sales. They just aren't able to keep momentum going afterward.
So, after X is out, what will they be able to do in order to keep any momentum steady? With their current console exclusive software, I don't see anything that can carry the weight. Sony may not have introduced and handled Pro all that well but they did a good job associating it with big titles that can sell the platform - Spider-Man, Days Gone, God of War, Horizon. All those titles compliment the Pro. X needs software like that but it won't have them. There is stuff like RDR2 but I don't think X will receive maximum benefit because of the sales difference and the marketing rights of PS4.
So, after X is out, what will they be able to do in order to keep any momentum steady? With their current console exclusive software, I don't see anything that can carry the weight. Sony may not have introduced and handled Pro all that well but they did a good job associating it with big titles that can sell the platform - Spider-Man, Days Gone, God of War, Horizon. All those titles compliment the Pro. X needs software like that but it won't have them. There is stuff like RDR2 but I don't think X will receive maximum benefit because of the sales difference and the marketing rights of PS4.
Ms is most likely relying on xb1x to relaunch their brand and I honestly think xb1x preorders were being held back because they wanted to see how the reception after e3 will go once they went with 500. A big corporation like MS not having preorders ready at e3 sounds ridiculous. They might be looking to sweeten the deal closer to launch. I believe crackdown 3 and super lucky tales will be free for launch.
joe_zazen
Member
I thought it had something to do with regulatory approval. Have they started manufacturing yet?
Preorders being unavailable for the XB1 in the US were most likely to due to a delay in FCC certification. The same thing happened to the SNES Mini.
It's disappointing, but it's not a deliberate strategy.
Mister Megative
Banned
If you guys want some discussion, remember Mat is on our podcast every month for NPD talk. He'll be on this Thursday.
Stilton Disco
Member
Given how utterly the XO's sales have stalled, and how the PS4's very much haven't, I'd be extremely surprised if this sales collapse was simply a portent of some huge oncoming surge of demand for the XOX.
At this point, I'm expecting matching the PS4Pro's launch numbers to be the absolute best case scenario for the XOX, and quite honestly, I'd not be shocked if the Pro even ended up outselling the XOX this year.
The complete lack of software support this year and perceived failure of the brand (regardless of what people believe it to actually be doing sales and profit wise) seems to have finally caught up to Microsoft, and I'm not sure a shiny new premium version is going to be enough to turn things around.
I mean its facing an uphill battle on every front:
PS4Pro is almost as good, and at least $100 cheaper.
Switch is the new hotness with the best exclusives and a far better selling point/gimmick than just power.
All PS4's have far more games, more varied genres/output, generally better perceived exclusives, and a VR option.
PC has all the same exclusives, plus millions more titles, and can potentially piss on it from a great height power wise.
And then there's the old model. Playing all the same games, but costing at least half the price, you still have the XO S, which is still another sale for the brand, sure, but will be taking customers away from the new system they'll want to look to be as much of a success out of the gate as can be.
Of course it could blow everyone's socks off and sell ridiculous amounts, but I'd be amazed, especially given just how high the odds look to be stacked against the system at this point.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it do well and the whole Xbox brand be rejuvenated by the success, but that's a hell of an ask for a system that's main selling points are a very few, mostly disappointing exclusives and playing some of the PS4's games with prettier graphics.
Mikey Jr.
Member
Dark Cloud
Member
I still can't wait to come back to that Reggie topic and the topic that predicted how man units the Switch would sell by 2020...The amount of people who crapped on the Switch and said it would fail because "OMG $300??!!" will be funny to read again in a couple of years.
And_Gignac
Member
Switch numbers seem super low considering Splatoon launched.
Probably Nintendo prioritizing Japan.
Probably Nintendo prioritizing Japan.
Welfare
Member
I read this at first as of July, so here's that. YTD 2016 was 1279K. Worldwide would be something like 2.2M
Full 2016 was 4733K. WW would be ~8M.
2017 will be worse, no doubt. 2018 could be slightly up this year or even worse.
AdventureRacing
Member
Pretty good switch sales. Stock slightly improved this month, hopefully that continues moving towards the holidays. SW sales seem pretty good but I'm not sure how it compares to other launches.
PS4 continues to surpass expectations as it has all year. I wouldn't be surprised to see it do the same this holiday.
The xbone looks like it's continuing to struggle and I dare say the strength of the PS4 is a good reason for that. I'm not sure that the rebranding this holiday is going to be as successful as they want. The PS4 had become the runaway leader this gen and I think it's going to start pulling away more and more.
Judging by European SW charts I think it's likely that numbers there are going to be up as well. Depending how the holiday goes this may end up being the peak year for the PS4.
I think it's kind of in the middle. It's more than double the original on a smaller user base. So in that sense it's hard to be disappointed. Still I think the legs will really determine how big of a success splatoon 2 is.
PS4 continues to surpass expectations as it has all year. I wouldn't be surprised to see it do the same this holiday.
The xbone looks like it's continuing to struggle and I dare say the strength of the PS4 is a good reason for that. I'm not sure that the rebranding this holiday is going to be as successful as they want. The PS4 had become the runaway leader this gen and I think it's going to start pulling away more and more.
Judging by European SW charts I think it's likely that numbers there are going to be up as well. Depending how the holiday goes this may end up being the peak year for the PS4.
I think it's kind of in the middle. It's more than double the original on a smaller user base. So in that sense it's hard to be disappointed. Still I think the legs will really determine how big of a success splatoon 2 is.
mejin
Member
Obliterator
Member
I feel like September/ Destiny 2 launch is really when we will have a good idea if PS4 will finish the year up YoY.
If they are able to move a pretry large chunk of more units this September than last and are still up in July and August I think that will give them enough of a lead built up that even if Q4 is down they can finish ahead of 16.
If they are able to move a pretry large chunk of more units this September than last and are still up in July and August I think that will give them enough of a lead built up that even if Q4 is down they can finish ahead of 16.
SneakersSO
Member
I think its a combination of factors, honestly. There is no doubt that the platform's perception is absolutely playing a part in this, but its not the only one; software is absolutely a part of this discussion.
Lets start with perception. For people who have followed me talking about MS on this board this may sound like i'm repeating myself but I believe this bears repeating - from E3 2016 to E3 2017, for the first time in the Xbox's history, they went a full year without announcing any major AA or triple A titles for their platform. This may sound like its no big deal, but I want you to consider this scenario: if another platform holder, like say Netflix, went a year without announcing any major exclusive content coming to the platform, don't you think their perception would suffer for it?
A lot of fans dismissed this in the lead up to E3 with the notion that MS was basically saving all of their software efforts for E3 2017, but now that it came & went with nothing really on the level of first party announcements that matches the kind of quality that both Sony & Nintendo are bringing to their respective platforms, the notion that 'something isn't quite right' has definitely settled into the core gaming demographic & has even more seriously seeped into the hardcore Xbox fanbase, which is a big problem; if MS starts bleeding that particular userbase to either PC or the PS4 ecosystem, they're basically toast.
In terms of software, MS is a mess on multiple fronts, but I honestly feel there is one that bears discussing: Xbox has to now share its exclusives with PC is killing the value proposition of the box itself. Now, there are a myriad of examples of Windows Store PC games that are Xbox titles originally not really selling that well, but I think this needs to be looked at from another angle.
I'm of the position that the idea alone that Xbox games are coming day & date to PC is contributing to the lowered perception on the necessity of the Xbox. After all, if i'm getting my games day & date on PC, and won't need a subscription for MP, and i'm a part of the core gamer demographic, why wouldn't I just wait & play it on my PC or save up & build a PC that would then allow me access to those games as well as others. By having the option available, I believe the value of the library as a means to sell consoles has become increasingly diminished as time has gone on.
bitbydeath
Gold Member
^^^
Some good points, what and when did MS last announce a big console (not timed) exclusive that wasn't the usual yearly Halo and Forza shenanigans?
Some good points, what and when did MS last announce a big console (not timed) exclusive that wasn't the usual yearly Halo and Forza shenanigans?
I think it was Scalebound and Sea of Thieves.
Nice.
A temporary price-cut this holiday season would do wonders for YoY numbers, in the face of NSW and X1X competition.