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June 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, July 11th
KillerMan91
Member
Crash having only $40 price tag is also going to hurt its placement in the charts.
Obliterator
Member
Yo that is actually a damn good point. It automatically has a 1/3rd price disadvantage against many titles. It might actually not chart super high up
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Wierd, I guess I am back to being on the higher end of predictions. Optimism Gaf hoooooooooo!^^
...Destiny bundle will sell gang busters. Now make sure you make enough to last until December along with Battlefront and COD WII.
...Destiny bundle will sell gang busters. Now make sure you make enough to last until December along with Battlefront and COD WII.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Sony knows how to use marketing to their advantage, if they make s CoD and a Battlefront Pro bundle they will cruise by in the Holidays without a worry of the competition.
Obliterator
Member
At least one of those games will just be a standard PS4 bundle. While they want to move Pro's they also want an entry level bundle for the price minded consumer.
Though actually it might not be either of those, it might be Horizon Zero Dawn. The software bundle would essentially be free for them as it's 1st party and would get the game into more hands, ala UC4 last year
ethomaz
Banned
You can expect this year with PS4...
Destiny 2 bundle.
CoD bundle.
Battlefront bundle.
FIFA bundle * at least EU.
GTS bundle * at least EU.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
If I don't see a knack 2/Crash bundle..I'll be sad. It's not for me I just wanna say it happened lol
onemanasylum
Banned
Ps4 peak year this year? I can see it.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
I trust EU Sony to do just that, but NA Sony seems to be real slow to introduce bundles in the past. Or having special ones just for a short period of time. I think giving people options with both Pro and Slim and the three biggest sellers of the year (Destiny 2, BF2, and COD WII) would steal a lot of Xbox1x thunder and make a lot of kids happy on Christmas. I just do not think they will offer all of that all holiday long. Hope I am wrong.
They had PS3 Destiny bundles along with the white PS4 bundles last time and both did well for them. If they want to win holiday they should (in my humble opinion) have every option open for the holiday season. Pro or slim, big 3rd party or 1st party, black or white, let the customer have options at different price points and I think both sides leave happy. Xbox will have a Minecraft one (which will do fine) an Assassin's Creed one (which will do great) a Forza one (which will do what it always does) and a Crackdown 3 one (which will likely sell poorly, but who knows). That is not too bad, but Sony is in a position to offer a much more attractive selection of bundles if they just pulled the trigger. I just fear that they will have one of two holiday bundles and call it a day.
Humdinger
Member
It landed #1 on UK charts. But given the revenue (NPD) vs. #sales (UK) issue, I'd guess maybe #5?
freefornow
Gold Member
No, resistance is.
As much as these bundles will keep Sony in good stead for the holidays, the price tag of 449$ isn't exactly attractive so should be interesting to see how much they push in terms of pro hardware. Obviously, the vanilla PS4 slim versions of these game bundles will do very well at 249 with them going to 199 around Black Friday.
There's also that for UK the chart is weekly, so only 2 days of tracking for Crash in NPD is a much bigger disadvantage in a monthly chart.
The $449 for the D2 PS4 Pro bundle during September is not bad and allows the early adopters to grab based on want and hype. Still a few months before the holidays and pricing changes/deals are bound to go into effect. $399 for a Pro bundle and an additional free game should move units.
What's the total cost of a Pro, D2 & the season pass stuff?
I'm guessing for the audience it's aimed at it isn't that unattractive.
Here in Italy we have a PS4 slim with crash bundle, dunno if it's a thing in the rest of Europe
It's the deluxe edition of Destiny 2, which is an extry $10 on top of the base game + expansion pass.
So MSRP value of the bundle is $399.99 + $99.99 for $449.99.
ethomaz
Banned
Agreed. I meant to imply that $449 is not a bad price at all for what your getting console/game/DLC/pass. I could see deals for a $399 bundle come Black Friday.
Shin
Banned
Crash/Ratchet bundle bundle as well, since it exists already.
Those bundles should be released everywhere, not sure why a and/or situation even if a particular game sells better in a region.
I don't think so. I think it will drop a little because I think it won't have a price drop. Next year however it should be the highest with Spider, GoW, price droping and hopefully TLOU2.
MatPiscatella
Member
Peak of what?
Sangetsu-II
Member
I feel like in 2018 it will peak. Amazing exclusives + a $199 console.
Unit sales?
MatPiscatella
Member
In the US?
onemanasylum
Banned
Won't be a price drop? Dis-agree, will be 199 slim the holidays, plus big bundles.
Mass Effect
Member
Probably a family bundle too.
Knack 2 + Ratchet & Clank bundle?
I feel like that's half the reason a Knack 2 even exists, to have it as bundled game.
There's no need for sony to drop this fast imo.
hanspampel
Banned
don't think Ps4 will have it's peak this year in the US
but Ps4 should be up YoY for the year thanks to a very strong H2 Software and Bundle offering
Destiny 2, Battlefront 2, a Call of Duty people want again
MatPiscatella
Member
Does that mean you think it's already hit its peak or that it will in some future year?
ethomaz
Banned
While it is hard I guess it has a chance... the software front is really strong and it is up yoy this first half in US.
WW I'm confident it will peak because GTS is a monster in EU.
Of course we are talking up to this year... I believe PS4 will peak in 2018 and PS5 will be announced at E3 2019 and November 2019 release.
PS. Unless 7nm is not mature enough.
MatPiscatella
Member
This would make absolutely zero sense.
ethomaz
Banned
That is what I believe... end of 2019 is the right time for new hardware... 2020 is the latest I can see due issues with 7nm.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Which part? And why, if I may ask.
MatPiscatella
Member
2019 is not the right time for new hardware if in 2018 the old hardware is selling more units per year than ever before.
Think about it from the perspective of managing the business, not what you'd like to see as a customer.
It's one or the other. If you get new HW in 2019, it's because sales of the old box is in decline. If the old box is still performing better than it ever has before, the new HW is delayed a year or so to maximize return.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Peak in 2018 and new hardware in 2020.
ethomaz
Banned
The actual hardware is already showing it weakess... 2019/2020 is indeed the best time for a new generation with new CPU, GPU, etc without holding back old hardware.
That is thinking in the business perspective... PS5 in late 2019 will be a huge win for Sony.
Now about the peak I believe the software front of next year plus a price cut will make PS4 peaked.
Well you get a new hardware when the tech allow it... 2019/2020 fits perfectally a new generation by 7nm.
MatPiscatella
Member
You're making a big assumption in what defines "win" for Sony.
No. New HW is only feasible when the tech allows it... new HW only comes to market when it is determined that the timing of the release allows whatever business goals are in place to be best achieved.
Wow, it is not the same case at all given sales velocities, business goals and market trajectories at the time.
ethomaz
Banned
360 in 2005 was a huge win for MS... it is the same case.
But it could also be a potential pitfall, like XB1 was for MS when they were considered the "winner" of the gen and in prime position to become dominant. It makes sense to me that Sony will want to ride the success of PS4 as long as possible - even if that means delaying next gen for a year. They are the ones that dictate when a new gen starts, since Microsoft have backed away from generational restarts and Nintendo do their own thing, so they have every opportunity to delay next gen if PS4 is doing great numbers.