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June 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, July 11th

N

noshten

Member
Shin said:
Always looks better if you lower expectation then exceed them in the end, looks better for investors (though it's not how it really works I reckon).
They recently got a white PS4 Slim and there's DQXI coming out soon which should push it a lot.

But yeah it's rather strange that expected to ship/sell less this year when it's already well ahead of last year so 22-24m incoming?
Click to expand...

Last year had the PS4Pro launch, Y5,00 price drop in Japan in September and FFXV.

Outside of DQXI there is not really any game on the PS4 that's expected to sell over 500K from August till December in Japan. PS4 has had a steller lineup thus far this year much better than the first 6 months of 2016. Still PS4 could very well do a little better in 2017 in Japan compared to 2016 but it would only be between 100-300K more so it's not as substantial. In the end Japan is just another market for Sony and it's not really key in terms of yearly hardware targets.
 
K

kyser73

Member
noshten said:
Last year had the PS4Pro launch, Y5,00 price drop in Japan in September and FFXV.

Outside of DQXI there is not really any game on the PS4 that's expected to sell over 500K from August till December in Japan. PS4 has had a steller lineup thus far this year much better than the first 6 months of 2016. Still PS4 could very well do a little better in 2017 in Japan compared to 2016 but it would only be between 100-300K more so it's not as substantial. In the end Japan is just another market for Sony and it's not really key in terms of yearly targets.
Click to expand...

Yeah, for Sony sales people need to look at Japan as a mid-top level EU market.
 
A

AdventureRacing

Member
The PS4 looks like it could potentially have its biggest year to date (or at least go close). With all the heavy hitters next year it's hard to see a steep decline. It's going to blow right past 100 million worldwide. I guess he question now is how close it ends up to the PS2.

The Xbox one is running on fumes and that's in the one market where it's really still relevant. It's WW sales must be very small right now. 50 million lifetime sales is starting to look like a pipe dream.

The switch keeps on chugging. Whilst it's disappointing that Nintendo is missing out on so many sales it's still selling pretty well considering the time of year. I was worried we would see it dip even lower prior to release considering how barren the SW line-up is. Nintendo still has so many heavy hitters left to come I can only imagine sales are going to go way up.
 
Samanosuke Akechi

Samanosuke Akechi

Member
So if North America is its strongest market, and its only sold 16m consoles here, where would that put its total for the other markets? Enough to brings its ww total to 30m? I can't see that being the case. I used to see xb1 selling 50-60 million WW LT but I don't see that happening now.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
Nice that we get some numbers .
Very interesting to see if this can be PS4 peak year .
They are doing really well so far .

MS really need XB1X to do well to try and gain some momentum .
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Samanosuke Akechi said:
So if North America is its strongest market, and its only sold 16m consoles here, where would that put its total for the other markets? Enough to brings its ww total to 30m? I can't see that being the case. I used to see xb1 selling 50-60 million WW LT but I don't see that happening now.
Click to expand...

I'd say it's at ~29M as of June.

US represents just above 31% of total PS4 sales as of the 60.4M number. At the end of June PS4 is probably ~61.5M.
 
K

Katana_Strikes

Member
Great to see actual numbers :) Thanks to whoever leaked them.

PS4 really doing the numbers and deservedly so. Some great games on the platform this year really doing work. And set up nicely for the rest of the year with big marketing tie ins and a potential Pro price cut. There's also lots of momentum going in to next year with a solid line up.

Xbox is falling hard. And again deservedly so. MS strategy is a poor one and it's certainly biting them now. And this is in their strongest market. Going off software sales in the UK, I wouldn't be surprised that it's suffering big time there too. The rest of the World it must be a whitewash. One X might do decently out of the gate and help boost end of year numbers but into Jan and beyond I'm predicting grim numbers as that momentum, much like the S, is killed thanks to a poor lineup ahead. In fact I feel X hype is all rather quiet. I'm sure come launch the fireworks will be out but soon after E3 (or even at E3 itself), the silence was a bit deafening. That price point probably sealed it though. Or the fact it wasnt a game changer. Or the lack of first party. But not good news for MS.
 
panda-zebra

panda-zebra

Member
Did not come in here expecting numbers, let alone such a great whack of them - cheers to whoever that was (and good luck).

gundamkyoukai said:
MS really need XB1X to do well to try and gain some momentum .
Click to expand...

Where is the momentum potential at $500? Only potential it has is for an initial burst and tail off to some kind of ticking over level.

Sony's current performance in US seems "almost unfair".
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Samanosuke Akechi said:
So that would mean it sold 1.1 million ww since E3 correct? My god.
Click to expand...

I believe the 60.4M was as of June week 1, so in 4 weeks about 1.1M. Basically on pace with the rest of the year, where it was selling on average ~318K a week assuming that is 7M in 22 weeks. Doing that x4 would be ~1.3M but I think 1.1M is a safe bet if you factor in sales dropping as we get into the summer and factoring in that the high average could be thanks to a high Q1 but somewhat slow April and May.
 
wapplew

wapplew

Member
gundamkyoukai said:
MS really need XB1X to do well to try and gain some momentum .
Click to expand...

Why would MS need hardware sale momentum, they are beyond hardware unit numbers long time ago.
They want to secure high spending customers and 1X will help them do that. Recent Ubi 80% revenue from digital told us MS is on the right track.
It's all about service and ecosystem.
 
O

OléGunner

Member
Sooo PS4 381K vs XB1 153K. Finally some numbers in an NPD thread.
I think the exclusive software and variety on offer is really just helping PS4 dominate XB1 since January.

Nearly 400k consoles sold during summer is pretty nuts.

gundamkyoukai said:
Nice that we get some numbers .
Very interesting to see if this can be PS4 peak year .
They are doing really well so far .

MS really need XB1X to do well to try and gain some momentum .
Click to expand...

At £450 in the UK, they're fucked I can say that.
When looking at the US, I expect hot numbers out the gate through the holidays but going into Jan 18 I think the numbers could crater.

MS would be wise to drop X1S to like $200 permanently to help stimulate sales after Christmas.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
wapplew said:
Why would MS need hardware sale momentum, they are beyond hardware unit numbers long time ago.
They want to secure high spending customers and 1X will help them do that. Recent Ubi 80% revenue from digital told us MS is on the right track.
It's all about service and ecosystem.
Click to expand...

The more people in your ecosystem the more money you get it's rather simple .
Unless you think MS is the only ecosystem that has high spenders ?
Also no company that sells hardware does not want hardware sale momentum .
Even more so when it can mean more subs and DD money .
 
Shambala

Shambala

Member
wapplew said:
Why would MS need hardware sale momentum, they are beyond hardware unit numbers long time ago.
They want to secure high spending customers and 1X will help them do that. Recent Ubi 80% revenue from digital told us MS is on the right track.
It's all about service and ecosystem.
Click to expand...
Damn so you are saying that they don't care about having sold less hardware then the competition? Which if they sold more would lead to more revenue with digital sales from said hardware?
 
Samanosuke Akechi

Samanosuke Akechi

Member
Thought this gif was pretty appropriate for Sony's huge June numbers :)


anigif_enhanced-buzz-24643-1370961259-25.gif
 
K

kyser73

Member
wapplew said:
Why would MS need hardware sale momentum, they are beyond hardware unit numbers long time ago.
They want to secure high spending customers and 1X will help them do that. Recent Ubi 80% revenue from digital told us MS is on the right track.
It's all about service and ecosystem.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm certain MS are happy that Sony have almost as many PSN subs as Xbone's global unit sales to date and are pursuing a similar strategy of digital engagement & services provision.
 
S

samar11

Member
Welfare said:
Now that we actually have numbers for the year, this is my updated prediction for full year 2017 from 2016.

PS4: 5.05M (-1%)
XB1: 3.95M (-17%)

I believe 2H 2017 for PS4 will drop -7% from 2016 thanks to a weaker November and December, and Xbox One 2H 2017 will be down -18% thanks to the One X only releasing in November, while One S launched in August.

Also, this is the LTD I have for each console, rounded.

PS4: 19.29M
XB1: 16.84M

Gap is 2.45M
Click to expand...

FUck I remember that one holiday when Xbox beat PS4 by a big margin on Nov + Dec and poeple thought that it could over take PS4 lol
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Welfare said:
Oh that is a juicy leak.

PS4
Jan: 210,665
Feb: 398,407
Mar: 396,726
Apr: 206,247
May: 187,182
Jun: 381,196

XB1
Jan: 157,545
Feb: 215,418
Mar: 243,514
Apr: 109,950
May: 109,130
Jun: 153,389

Switch
Mar: 910,545
Apr: 280,897
May: 165,038
Jun: 215,582

Thanks go to jal356
Click to expand...
Leaks again.

PS4 is doing even better than my estimates of 5% up YoY.
 
J

JonnyDBrit

Member
So if those leak numbers are accurate, combined with Japanese sales (I realise we're about to get new MCS numbers in a few hours), then the Switch is at around 2.6 million in terms of NA + Japan. Depending on sales in Europe, probably somewhere in the range of 3.5-4 million globally, almost certainly to be over the line by the end of the month thanks to Splatoon 2. Just imagine if it wasn't so supply constrained.
 
G

gtj1092

Member
Welfare said:
Xbox One YTD is down 11% YoY, PS4 up 13%.

Pro is helping PS4 sales here. Using that 1 in 5 comment from Sony, we can assume ~350K Pro's have been sold this year, leaving 1.43M PS4's for a 9% drop from 2016. Looks like the general theme of the year will be XB1 down until maybe November, PS4 up until November at least.

Like, I'm having trouble thinking of a scenario where Xbox One 2017 isn't below 4M units.

But hey, maybe this means 2018 will be a better year for XB1 thanks to X?



XB1 2015: 4,933,000
PS4 2015: 5,728,000

XB1 was barely down in 2016 -4% and PS4 down 11%
Click to expand...

So if you take away ps4 sales ps4 sales are down?
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
gtj1092 said:
So if you take away ps4 sales ps4 sales are down?
Click to expand...
Yes.

I wasn't trying to imply something like Pro shouldn't count as a PS4, just an observation that if Pro wasn't a product then it's possible we could see PS4 down to a degree similar to XB1. It's obvious Pro was a smart decision for Sony and it paid off well in the end.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
Welfare said:
Yes.

I wasn't trying to imply something like Pro shouldn't count as a PS4, just an observation that if Pro wasn't a product then it's possible we could see PS4 down to a degree similar to XB1. It's obvious Pro was a smart decision for Sony and it paid off well in the end.
Click to expand...

I don't think it would be down that low since some people would have upgraded to a slim model .
I normally do that but bought a Pro since they were so close together in date .
So i am sure it the same for others .
Still Pro help get extra sales the question how much more .
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

Member
jroc74 said:
More like eh XBO.

My god at that PS4 bump. Like wtf...
Click to expand...

Have these numbers been confirmed by another source? Because that bump seems to be a little bit odd, as in "too big". Nothing against CB-R or a Golden PS4, but I never thought those would be enough to give PS4 such a YoY boost in June.
 
K

Kenzodielocke

Banned
Bitch Pudding said:
Have these numbers been confirmed by another source? Because that bump seems to be a little bit odd, as in "too big". Nothing against CB-R or a Golden PS4, but I never thought those would be enough to give PS4 such a YoY boost in June.
Click to expand...

If it doesn't get denied by the usual suspects, we can assume they are real.
 
B

bombshell

Member
Bitch Pudding said:
Have these numbers been confirmed by another source? Because that bump seems to be a little bit odd, as in "too big". Nothing against CB-R or a Golden PS4, but I never thought those would be enough to give PS4 such a YoY boost in June.
Click to expand...

There was also the Days of Play sale promotion which had some bundles, both Slim and Pro.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Bitch Pudding said:
Have these numbers been confirmed by another source? Because that bump seems to be a little bit odd, as in "too big". Nothing against CB-R or a Golden PS4, but I never thought those would be enough to give PS4 such a YoY boost in June.
Click to expand...
Remember that the 1TB gold PS4 was $249. The MSRP for PS4 is $299. Limited edition SKUs always do well so that plus it being the cheapest model is going to sell out. Well over 100K were probably sold.
 
B

bombshell

Member
Welfare said:
Remember that the 1TB gold PS4 was $249. The MSRP for PS4 is $299. Limited edition SKUs always do well so that plus it being the cheapest model is going to sell out. Well over 100K were probably sold.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that guy who leaked the numbers did highlight the Gold PS4 sales.

I can't post a link, I got these through a friend. I do track this information. I have zero incentive to come on this forum and make up random numbers.
The PS4 number is very high indeed, the gold edition w/ 1TB and $250 price tag drove massive sales. Despite Sony's guidance of y/y declines in shipments it appears that they are on track to grow hardware sales again this year.
Click to expand...

It just dawned on me now, if the posted June numbers are correct, then we have PS4 > Switch+XB1 for June. :O
 
Shin

Shin

Banned
Bitch Pudding said:
Have these numbers been confirmed by another source? Because that bump seems to be a little bit odd, as in "too big". Nothing against CB-R or a Golden PS4, but I never thought those would be enough to give PS4 such a YoY boost in June.
Click to expand...

Days of Play, Gold PS4 Slim, Crash, all 3 combined warrants such a boost.
A lot of people under estimate Crash but come holiday if it's bundled with Ratchet & Clank it should keep on pushing numbers.
There's also the White PS4 Pro that's launching soon-ish that should help as well + all them bunduru.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Oh my at this info. I'm still waiting to see if this gets confirmed though. Or rather, waiting for Matt not to say anything if the numbers are true. :p
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
bombshell said:
It just dawned on me now, if the posted June numbers are correct, then we have PS4 > Switch+XB1 for June. :O
Click to expand...

...wow...

Dont know whats more amazing, the big PS4 number or the low XBO number...

Gotta agree with others, and I mentioned it a few times. Wouldnt be surprised if MS made the One X next gen.

That would probably help get it more sales vs calling it a mid gen refresh with that price.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
I don't think I see the point in trying to start a new gen with X. That price has already limited any real potential and MS' market situation isn't going to change regardless (US skewed). They should keep X as a premium model to gain more revenue and prepare for next gen. And by prepare, I mean an attempt to improve upon their marketshare. Not just releasing a stronger console and calling it a day. They need an effective strategy out of the gate that they stick with.
 
M

Miniature Kaiju

Member
DriftingSpirit said:
They should keep X as a premium model to gain more revenue and prepare for next gen. And by prepare, I mean an attempt to improve upon their marketshare. Not just releasing a stronger console and calling it a day. They need an effective strategy out of the gate that they stick with.
Click to expand...

MS is in a tough position in the gaming market: their current product is performing mediocrely and failed to capitalize on the previous gen success, their mid-gen refresh is late to the market with no clear path forward. They can't afford to let Sony get an early start to next gen, network effect is too strong in the gaming market.

Their next gen console has to arrive close to the PS5 launch, priced competitively and with a pretty clear, strong game lineup, else they'll flop even harder than this gen.
 
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