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[harrisk954]

Hello again, NeoGAF forums.


Forgive me as I am not familiar with forums, and I am unaware of the conventions of this community. I enjoyed participating in the 'NPD (U.S. Hardware Predictions)' game that the NeoGAF forums offered before the Report was finalized and released. The Neo GAF seems like a fun, intelligent community, so I would like to help the NeoGAF out by disclosing a few immaterial data points from Thursday's Report, although I do not have the time to participate in your 'console war' topics or respond to queries on a regular basis.


The Report in question is The NPD Group's October 2015 U.S. Games Industry Sales (New Physical Channel) Report which was released to its important clients on Thursday. It is my understanding that the NeoGAF community regularly discusses and analyzes U.S. Console Hardware point-of-sale data from these reports and would appreciate further disclosure to be able to use in 'console war' discussion.


Please keep in mind that the October 2015 U.S. Games Industry Sales (New Physical Sales Channel) Report tracks a 4-week month with a Reporting Period of 28 days (10/04/15 through 10/31/15), because The NPD Group follows a traditional 4-4-5 retail calendar. This is to ensure that weekly / quarterly periods can be properly compared relative to performance from previous years.


In Thursday's October 2015 Report, The NPD Group reported that Sony's 'PlayStation 4' U.S. Console Hardware had unit sales of 275K. In the same October 2015 Report, Microsoft's 'Xbox One' U.S. Console Hardware had unit sales of 303K. Also, Nintendo's 'Wii U' U.S. Console Hardware had unit sales of 65K.

You can refer to the following Excel bar graph I produced for the Neo GAF which conveniently contextualizes the above point-of-sale data in reference to data from previous NPD Reports:

It is important to note that NPD's monthly point-of-sale data reports on U.S. Games Industry sales occurring from new physical purchases at retail which is the largest channel for games sales, but does not represent 100% of industry sales; it does not account for consumer purchases made via digital distribution, used game sales, subscriptions, mobiles, rentals, or social network games. NPD's Games Market Dynamics: U.S. is issued quarterly and is NPD's official estimate of the consumer spend on the industry and it does include estimates of the size of those other monetization methods.

So, XB1 "won", but this is effectively a loss for them. only a 28,000 difference (assuming that this is real) in Halo month, with Halo selling at a record low number. MS made up ZERO ground on Sony with their biggest exclusive title. It was over for MS this generation before this, but this has to be the last nail in the coffin as far as MS's chances of even keeping step with Sony in MS's home territory. The gap will be far wider by this time next year.

 

[Japanmanx3]

Yoshi did great, actually. Given its stumbles, Nintendo is still one of the top publishers of the year in terms of software revenues and share. They're doing great at maximizing a small base.

 

[Steverulez]

My reasoning is that they need to get their biggest studio on making that new IP, it's not a guarantee that it will sell 6-7 million, but it's more likely if their biggest studio is the one that's making the IP.

Biggest doesn't always mean best, 343 need to find a good concept that they can go and make, all the while they have a whole massive studio with nothing to do, that process could/would likely take years

At best they should get an incubation team in there to start looking at what they could do for post Halo 6 but even then, I don't really wholly see the benefits of having 343 do that over building another separate team in Seattle

 

[Nirolak]

Yoshi did great, actually. Given its stumbles, Nintendo is still one of the top publishers of the year in terms of software revenues and share. They're doing great at maximizing a small base.

I'm curious to see how their profits look next generation. They actually seem to be embracing service games a lot better than I expected them to at this point in time and even with a pretty reserved line-up of games this year, they're clearly still appealing well to their audience.

As they shift toward digital revenue as well, that should give them a good lift.

 

[DarthWalden]

I get your point, but would MS be satisfied with Halo being a B-tier AAA game (in terms of sales)? It is their biggest IP after all, if 343i can make a new IP that sells 6-7 million, it would be a much better long-term business decision.

They shouldn't give up this early yet though, one game doesn't make a trend, if Halo 6 performs similarly, then they definitely need another IP to carry the reigns.

This is crazy talk. B tier? Lol

Halo is still extremely profitable, it's not going anywhere at least not for a few years.

 

[Hanmik]

I'm curious to see how their profits look next generation. They actually seem to be embracing service games a lot better than I expected them to at this point in time and even with a pretty reserved line-up of games this year, they're clearly still appealing well to their audience.

As they shift toward digital revenue as well, that should give them a good lift.

I REALLY would like to hear your opinion on George.. ;O)

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Black friday will give a boost in sales, but not so much in revenue because of heavy discounts.
No way it will top any release numbers though.

But that's my point. IOf course Black Friday will help and all, but it won't sell like this month.

 

[Japanmanx3]

A wild mod appears...guess things cooled down...

George still alive too.

 

[Ricky_R]

MCC definitely bred a lot of resentment in even the most avid fans of the franchise. No doubt that it was toxic for the IP. This was just compounded by the thin ice the series was already on with fans following Halo 4. But I honestly don't think anyone would be predicted these figures. This is far lower than even the most negative predictions made on GAF. The worst was Conduit's 900k retail sales. I mean it literally defied every expectation.

I believe that, while MCC was definitely toxic, many fans could understand the circumstances (MS's pressure, different devs, too ambitious for their own good, etc.). Halo 4, however, was a proper release with not many hiccups that presented a shift in gameplay that many resented and had no way of knowing if they were going to be resolved for the next game.

I imagine that many people just passed on this one for those reasons, combined with the MCC mess. Now that Halo 5 seems to be better than Halo 4 (online), many people may return for Halo 6.

That may very well be wrong of course.

 

[BadWolf]

It didn't do much because $50 is nothing

This.

Been saying this since the beginning of the year, $50 is pointless and now they have wasted it.

 

[teiresias]

I mean, I know it's hard to admit, but it's pretty obvious given these sales levels. Software and hardware isn't selling to the level needed to sustain current development platforms and costs on home, tv-bound platforms. I believe the only solution for the industry is to invest in high-end retro-style consoles and return game development completely to 2D pixel-based art styles and focus on platformers and run and guns, with the occasional large-scale 2D rpg.

Spoiler

/s

 

[Kill3r7]

What are the chance of Halo 5 sold better in second NPD? Black Friday and longer tracking etc.

Slim to none. The only way that happens is if MS 1) throws Halo 5 in as an additional free game during BF with every console they sell or 2) a major price cut during BF like AC Syndicate.

 

[Fady K]

If ms continues it's momentum from the 360 days, without A DOUBT xbox would be ahead.

That's an assumption, there is no basis for this really.

Oh yeah, launch a console less powerful than PS4 for $500 is play the cards right.

If one of us is a fanboy, it's not me.

One that isn't much less powerful and one that dropped in price to the point it became even cheaper? And still barely scrapes past the competition? You seemed to sound sure of what would have happened, but the fact is you can never be sure or know since it hasn't occurred that way.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Black friday will give a boost in sales, but not so much in revenue because of heavy discounts.
No way it will top any release numbers though.

Doubt it black friday going to be about COD and the force .

 

[Alo0oy]

This is crazy talk. B tier? Lol

Halo is still extremely profitable, it's not going anywhere at least not for a few years.

<5 million is B-tier in the current market climate, Resident Evil & Final Fantasy games do better than that.

 

[CosmicQueso]

I'm curious to see how their profits look next generation. They actually seem to be embracing service games a lot better than I expected them to at this point in time and even with a pretty reserved line-up of games this year, they're clearly still appealing well to their audience.

As they shift toward digital revenue as well, that should give them a good lift.

Rule #1 of the video game business - never, ever, count Nintendo out.

Agree with all your points. They are definitely on the path back, and very quietly making many really good decisions. A lot hinges on NX of course, but they are diversifying. A healthy Nintendo is good for the industry for sure.

 

[shoreu]

935k including bundles

Previous entries sold 3million +

Is this confirmed and sourced. I'm sorry if asked before, the thread is going so fast I can't find it.

 

[Japanmanx3]

Rule #1 of the video game business - never, ever, count Nintendo out.

Agree with all your points. They are definitely on the path back, and very quietly making many really good decisions. A lot hinges on NX of course, but they are diversifying. A healthy Nintendo is good for the industry for sure.

What I like to hear!

Is this confirmed and sourced. I'm sorry if asked before, the thread is going so fast I can't find it.

Read pages 57-59..

 

[slavesnyder]

But that's my point. IOf course Black Friday will help and all, but it won't sell like this month.

Sometimes I answer not to disagree, but to add.
You were fine as always.

Spoiler

As long as it's not about Splatoon...

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I mean, I know it's hard to admit, but it's pretty obvious given these sales levels. Software and hardware isn't selling to the level needed to sustain current development platforms and costs on home, tv-bound platforms. I believe the only solution for the industry is to invest in high-end retro-style consoles and return game development completely to 2D pixel-based art styles and focus on platformers and run and guns, with the occasional large-scale 2D rpg.

Spoiler

/s

Crazy talk .
This month COD , Fallout and BF going to clean up .

 

[RexNovis]

A safe range for estimating digital is giving it 15-35% share of early sales. That's a big range, but will likely get you in the area.



Yoshi did great, actually. Given its stumbles, Nintendo is still one of the top publishers of the year in terms of software revenues and share. They're doing great at maximizing a small base.

I'm sore Amiibo is doing wonders for their profit margins as well. Apparently YWW was bundled with an exclusive Amiibo of some sort that Id imagine played no small part in its sales for the month.

I honestly do not understand the draw for toys to life stuff. Maybe I'm just getting to old. I'm not hip with the minecrafts and skylanders. It's a weird feeling to see them blowing sales charts up and yet seeing them as some sort of newfangled sales sorcery that defies comprehension. I imagine this what my parents generation felt like about video games in general.

 

[Pancakes R Us]

People need to stop being shocked at Yoshi's chart position. This is the long-awaited follow-up to the awesome Yoshi's Story.

 

[wapplew]

Slim to none. The only way that happens is if MS 1) throws Halo 5 in as an additional free game during BF with every console they sell or 2) a major price cut during BF like AC Syndicate.

Maybe they'll let retail do discount or give away? Given they likely stuff the channel with plenty Halo copy (400m revenue after all).

 

[timlot]

Fascinating thread. Lot of Halo talk to cover up the fact PS4 had it price drop and was meet with shoulder shrugs. First month both base systems were the same price and XB1 came out on top. Preseasons over fellas.

Spoiler

Its a trap!

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

Doubt it black friday going to be about COD and the force .

You forgot about fallout

 

[RexNovis]

Is this confirmed and sourced. I'm sorry if asked before, the thread is going so fast I can't find it.

Yes it is confirmed by multiple insiders. It's legit. Which doesn't make it any less unbelievable I know. But it's true.

 

[In Service]

The collective tanking of Halo 5, Assassins Creed, Xbox 1 and decline of console gaming with subpar PS4 sales, provides myself as NeoGeo gamer great gratification and sense of inner warmth.

This is what you heathens get for disowning most beautiful handheld of all time with your AAA games and shooters. I've been waiting for this moment my whole life and now I'm basking in its glory.

I liked this post.

 

[tomhan]

The one thing that has become clear in the past couple months is that the NPD numbers are becoming more and more irrelevant. There is significantly less hard data now and that just fuels baseless speculation and wild assumptions.

I think it's now more and more important to look at how Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo report quarterly earnings and the directions of the companies as a whole. Those numbers / reports will have a much bigger impact on how all these companies approach the console space in the future.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

You forgot about fallout

yep and fallout also going to do huge numbers .
There really is no space for anything else in Nov .

TR numbers next month going to be so bad .

 

[BokehKing]

This.

Been saying this since the beginning of the year, $50 is pointless and now they have wasted it.

Exactly, especially when you think about how Xbox one dropped $150 since launch, probably another $50 soon


What are the chances tomb raider sells more than halo

 

[RexNovis]

I believe that, while MCC was definitely toxic, many fans could understand the circumstances (MS's pressure, different devs, too ambitious for their own good, etc.). Halo 4, however, was a proper release with not many hiccups that presented a shift in gameplay that many resented and had no way of knowing if they were going to be resolved for the next game.

I imagine that many people just passed on this one for those reasons, combined with the MCC mess. Now that Halo 5 seems to be better than Halo 4 (online), many people may return for Halo 6.

That may very well be wrong of course.

Honestly we could also see positive WOM for Halo 5 garner some decent sales in Nov and Dec. It's just not feasible to count on it nor dues it change the startlingly low debut performance for a mainline entry in the franchise. Things could definitely improve in the moths to come but the early signs are bleak indeed.

 

[foxbeldin]

Does someone has the hardware sales difference between PS4 and XB1 from january till now? I can't find old results.

 

[Alo0oy]

Fascinating thread. Lot of Halo talk to cover up the fact PS4 had it price drop and was meet with shoulder shrugs. First month both base systems were the same price and XB1 came out on top. Preseasons over fellas.

Spoiler

Its a trap!

Both consoles under-performed, there's nothing to celebrate about 303k or 275k.

 

[DarthWalden]

<5 million is B-tier in the current market climate, Resident Evil & Final Fantasy games do better than that.

I guess our definition of B tier is wildly different as both of those franchises you mentioned are easily A tier in my eyes.

Plus you completely glossed over my second point, besides the recently acquired minecraft and despite the drop in sales halo is still the most profitable franchise that MS owns and it's not going anywhere, not for a whole anyways.

 

[harSon]

Every time I've popped into this thread in past NPD months, bundles and digital sales have been used as a positive excuse/lifter - but that seems to have gone out the window for Halo 5 Lol.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Sometimes I answer not to disagree, but to add.
You were fine as always.

Spoiler

As long as it's not about Splatoon...

please, can you stop talk about Splatoon? I know you are joking and i like you, but now stop.
I already said my prediction, so, wait and see. If it won't sell as much as i predicted ( 5.5 million ) i will say i was wrong.

------------------------------------------------

Back in the OP, what do you guys believe Halo 5 will sell in november NPD?

935,000 this month, maybe 700,000 / 800,000 in November ?

 

[In Service]

A wild mod appears...guess things cooled down...

George still alive too.

George is still running around trying to fake his credentials and spoof his email account.

Spoiler

/s or maybe not, who knows!

 

[leeh]

I don't know why a few on here keep promoting preloading like it's some super enticing thing. It's not. Getting a game early however, as in a whole day, two or three early, and at a cheaper price, now that's enticing.

The Halo OT/review threads made this even clearer. Where so many who ordered retail were playing the game early whilst digital buyers, most of whom had paid more for the game, were twiddling their thumbs waiting for that midnight launch.

That's a privilege what isn't available to the masses. I know it isn't with me. I'd rather pre-order it on my sofa and have the privilege knowing it's ready to play when midnight turns. If you pick it up from a store, you have to go through that laborious install and imminent day one patch.

All pre-loading will do is lower the numbers of pre ordering, and therefore, increase the split.

 

[tiredheadcrab]

The PS4 didnt do too bad during October. I am sure a lot of people were holding off for the CoD and BF bundles and such. I can see PS4 doing really well during this month.

 

[Japanmanx3]

The one thing that has become clear in the past couple months is that the NPD numbers are becoming more and more irrelevant. There is significantly less hard data now and that just fuels baseless speculation and wild assumptions.

I think it's now more and more important to look at how Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo report quarterly earnings and the directions of the companies as a whole. Those numbers / reports will have a much bigger impact on how all these companies approach the console space in the future.

Bruh we got hard number in this thread about 3 consoles and 2 major franchises...straight up NPD numbers...

 

[Ricky Ricardo]

What I like to hear!


Read pages 57-59..

I'm sorry, I must've missed where a mod came in an gave NPD_George the all-good.

Could you perhaps point me to that post?

 

[Mister Megative]

Maybe the industry is just in a slump? My younger cousins spend their time on tablets and phones. They aren't sitting at home around televisions, they've got phones and tablets, they're streaming twitch, watching let's plays, doing other stuff. Who knows. If AAA and consoles struggling this much, gonna be a huge shakeup. Let's see next month's numbers though.

Consoles are not struggling, nor are they in a slump. Stop this.

 

[slavesnyder]

The one thing that has become clear in the past couple months is that the NPD numbers are becoming more and more irrelevant. There is significantly less hard data now and that just fuels baseless speculation and wild assumptions.

I think it's now more and more important to look at how Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo report quarterly earnings and the directions of the companies as a whole. Those numbers / reports will have a much bigger impact on how all these companies approach the console space in the future.

For software - maybe.
For hardware - no.

 

[Nirolak]

For Halo, I said this way back in the UK thread:

I would say the main issues the game faces would be as follows.

1.) Obviously the position of the Xbox One lowers the amount of sales it can possibly have, so that's an initial headwind.

2.) However, I think the bigger issue is how much the market has changed since 2012. First party games in general are way less relevant as third parties have taken over through economies of scale. In the same ~1 month period, each of the three biggest third party publishers is releasing a major competitive online FPS with astronomical sales expectations. Black Ops 3 is 20+ million, Battlefront is 13+ million, and Rainbow Six is 7+ million, and they all have development, outreach, and promotional investment to match. To note, by development, I don't necessarily mean cost (though that can certainly apply), but also staff who have a good feel for openings and trends the market. I'd view Rainbow Six as the shakiest of those, but they are trying to find an opening in the market by releasing a Counter-Strike like game on consoles.

3.) Halo hasn't been seen as a seminal franchise for a while. Halo 5's reception seems better than Halo 4's, but since it's not seen as the game from which other shooters derive, it's harder to generate an astronomically high attach rate result like Halo traditionally has. Instead, it's now simply another high quality shooter you can buy from all the other good options this Fall.

I feel this holds here as well. We've seen it move from a standout phenomenon to a game that's selling like other big-but-not-tremendous shooters like Battlefield: Hardline, Medal of Honor 2010, or really like just about any game that's moving 5 million units LTD these days.

~1 million in the US is still a good number, 150K in the UK is still a good number, but they're the types of sales of a popular game instead of an industry dominating game that's primarily limited by being single platform.

Halo in 2015 is another good shooter instead of "The Shooter To Get".

 

[Steverulez]

That's an assumption, there is no basis for this really.

One that isn't much less powerful and one that dropped in price to the point it became even cheaper? And still barely scrapes past the competition? You seemed to sound sure of what would have happened, but the fact is you can never be sure or know since it hasn't occurred that way.

Things are still pretty close in the US (vs PS4) despite launching at $100 more with the DRM, Kinect, TV and other issues at the reveal... had they been more focused, produced a box that was cheaper with more power, you don't think the Xbox One would be selling more than it has? And if its selling more than there isn't that much room before its selling as much as if not more than the PS4 has.

The 360 was an absolute behemoth in the US compared to the PS3, people switched for a variety of reasons but I think their [MS] screw ups were the significant part of XB1 selling less, whether it was DRM, price or otherwise

 

[Hoo-doo]

This has been the wildest NPD ever.

NPD_George, you're a honorary Sales-GAF member now. May you post eternal.

 

[FunkyPajamas]

This.

Been saying this since the beginning of the year, $50 is pointless and now they have wasted it.

I tend to agree with this. Two years for a $50 drop is pathetic. Then again, holiday deals will carry that extra $50 to $299 so it's almost like a $100 drop.

 

[Ivan Amiibo]

For connoisseurs of passive aggression, NPD threads are filet mignon

 

[Catdaddy]

I'd be interested to hear some theories as to why no one bought games or consoles in October.

Information leaking about the November sales on bundles. I saw the Best Buy deals sometime in October. Even with the PS4 price drop people holding out for those special November deals.

On a side note, several people here in my department (60-ish people) that are planning on buying either PS4 or X1 this year cause the game library has increased enough for them to pull the trigger and justify the purchase. Some are for their kids and some for their personal use. Not that my little corner of the world means anything, but who knows.

 

[Ricky_R]

I'm sorry, I must've missed where a mod came in an gave NPD_George the all-good.

Could you perhaps point me to that post?

The closest we got is Cosmic, but no mod yet. He's not banned though.