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[Welfare]

Yea, I remember that but the Halo month had pretty poor sales for that sorta launch (as we found out, due to loads being in November).

Still a solid showing for XB1, it's mainly PS4 that's not doing well.

Halo only had one week in October and the weekly average went up 30% from September 2015. 303k is actually really good in October and the last time October saw sales above 300k was the Xbox 360 back in 2011. In fact, the Xbox One has been the only console so far to sell >300k in October this gen, and it has happened 2 years in a row.

PS4 was the only console that experienced poor October sales in 2015 because of waiting for the special bundles. Xbox didn't suffer that has it had a standard increase in November 2015.

 

[Kill3r7]

Remember that last year was Halo month. +8% YoY means that momentum for the XB1S has improved significantly from September. September weekly average was 66,560 and using ~327k for October the weekly average is ~81,750. That is a 23% improvement and almost matches Septembers total month sales.

Yea, I remember that but the Halo month had pretty poor sales for that sorta launch (as we found out, due to loads being in November).

Still a solid showing for XB1, it's mainly PS4 that's not doing well.

Those early lifetime sales (front loaded) are coming home to roost after all. I would not be surprised if PS4/Pro end up being down YoY for November and December. Sony had such unprecedented success last year beating even its highest selling PS2 month. Tough to top that even when launching a new console. The real question is where do Sony and MS go from here. If trends continue Winter/Spring sales are bound to be slow again. We are slowly but surely approaching that $200 price point at worse we will certainly hit it next year during the Holiday sales. After that it is basically coasting.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

A 8% increase for XB1 HW over last year is slightly less then I was expecting. It's still doing fairly well for itself but given how poor the PS4 has been doing the past few months, the console HW market as a whole doesn't seem that much improved over last year.

That's not really something I was expecting. I think in the past three months, the two consoles have only outsold last year by something like ~50k. I was expecting more from this year, even in the smaller months. Sony really dropped the ball with how unaggressive they were in matching the XB1. I do wonder how many sales got shifted to the holidays again.

Is it really "dropping the ball" if the holidays are going to be huge? The same thing was said last year when Sony had a rather poor October and then they proceeded to have massive holiday sales.

 

[Liabe Brave]

...the only options available to report on sales data are revenues and units. And revenues is better....

But revenue and units is better still. A list by units, with an accompanying ASP, would give the best picture of differing publisher strategies and the level of success they're seeing. ...I know it won't happen.

In an older post you said quality accounted for 28-35% of sales variation the last time you checked. Would you be able to share more results from that analysis? If it was multivariate, what other factors most exhausted variation? What was the pool of data you were drawing from? Any further insight would be great.

Thank you very much for so generously participating in the discussion. Having someone on hand with full access to this rich mine of info, and expertise interpreting it, helps assuage dissatisfaction with the sere character of the bare list.

 

[Welfare]

Is it really "dropping the ball" if the holidays are going to be huge? The same thing was said last year when Sony had a rather poor October and then they proceeded to have massive holiday sales.

I'm actually talking about this in my monthly weekly average comparisons and November was pushed massively thanks to the Black Ops 3 and Battlefront bundles.

Total November | Battlefront | Black Ops 3 | Rest |
   1.539M      |     375K    |     251K    | 913K |

41% of sales came from those and this year the only equivalent would be the Pro, and I doubt that is making up over 600k sales. The trend so far has been the PS4 is down YoY so we can't just assume they will have such a big boost this year with a comparatively worse holiday offering.

 

[viHuGi]

I'm actually talking about this in my monthly weekly average comparisons and November was pushed massively thanks to the Black Ops 3 and Battlefront bundles.

Total November | Battlefront | Black Ops 3 | Rest |
   1.539M      |     375K    |     251K    | 913K |

41% of sales came from those and this year the only equivalent would be the Pro, and I doubt that is making up over 600k sales. The trend so far has been the PS4 is down YoY so we can't just assume they will have such a big boost this year with a comparatively worse holiday offering.

It's confirmed, Ps4 is doomed and will sell 0 units on November, let's all forget they gave IW away with Uncharted 4 bundle AND Pro just came out. Plus 249$ on Black Friday and Sony expecting its biggest holiday ever for Ps4.

And yes I agree, Sony is being unagressive right now, they seem to not care alot about the American market, they could have a Cod Bundle or Watch Dogs like they do in Europe but they seem happy having only one bundle right now, maybe European sales are too strong right now and they rather focus there.

 

[Welfare]

It's confirmed, Ps4 is doomed and will sell 0 units on November, let's all forget they gave IW away with Uncharted 4 bundle AND Pro just came out. Plus 249$ on Black Friday and Sony expecting its biggest holiday ever for Ps4.

And yes I agree, Sony is being unagressive right now, they seem to not care alot about the American market, they could have a Cod Bundle or Watch Dogs like they do in Europe but they seem happy having only one bundle right now, maybe European sales are too strong right now and they rather focus there.

I really can't tell if you think I think the PS4 is going to do bad this holiday or not. You say you agree but that seemed a bit aggressive

Spoiler

unlike Sony this holiday

. Getting mixed signals here.

 

[viHuGi]

I really can't tell if you think I think the PS4 is going to do bad this holiday or not. You say you agree but that seemed a bit aggressive

Spoiler

unlike Sony this holiday

. Getting mixed signals here.

I expect huge holiday sales and Sony could do more sales on holiday if they were more aggressive.

Still 6m this holiday is a lock since they did 5.1m last year and they expect to ship 12.3m Consoles this next 2 quarters.

 

[Welfare]

I expect huge holiday sales and Sony could do more sales on holiday if they were more aggressive.

Still 6m this holiday is a lock since they did 5.1m last year and they expect to ship 12.3m Consoles this next 2 quarters.

If you are talking about worldwide then sure it should be up YoY.

 

[Primethius]

Halo only had one week in October and the weekly average went up 30% from September 2015. 303k is actually really good in October and the last time October saw sales above 300k was the Xbox 360 back in 2011. In fact, the Xbox One has been the only console so far to sell >300k in October this gen, and it has happened 2 years in a row.

PS4 was the only console that experienced poor October sales in 2015 because of waiting for the special bundles. Xbox didn't suffer that has it had a standard increase in November 2015.

Your right but I just don't find the original Halo month anything special. It gave a boost but nothing big.

But yea, the data you pointed out is pretty clear.


Edit: As for the Nov/Dec talk, I'm thinking PS4 will be down YoY despite Pro.

I'm currently thinking Pro will do <400k across Nov/Dec.

 

[allan-bh]

Edit: As for the Nov/Dec talk, I'm thinking PS4 will be down YoY despite Pro.

I'm currently thinking Pro will do <400k across Nov/Dec.

Will be disappointing if that happen because with Slim for $249 in BF and Pro, nov/dec 2016 has all potential to be the biggest for PS4.

Maybe the lack of better bundles can hurt sales, last year had CoD and Battlefront.

 

[Welfare]

Edit: As for the Nov/Dec talk, I'm thinking PS4 will be down YoY despite Pro.

I'm currently thinking Pro will do <400k across Nov/Dec.

That sounds very low. It should do at least 400k in November or there is no way PS4 will be up YoY. I'm thinking 450k-500k in November and ~400k in December.

At best though I'm expecting PS4 to be slightly up from last year for November + December.

 

[Loris146]

Will be disappointing if that happen because with Slim for $249 and Pro, nov/dec 2016 has all potential to be the biggest for PS4.

Sony needs a better entry level bundle anyway. Uncharted 4 is not enough.

 

[blakep267]

Will be disappointing if that happen because with Slim for $249 in BF and Pro, nov/dec 2016 has all potential to be the biggest for PS4.

Maybe the lack of better bundles can hurt sales, last year had CoD and Battlefront.

I doubt that. Star Wars and COd were 2 of the biggest games last year and that helped push the PS4. The standard bundle is UC4. You would need the pro to be massive which I don't see it being

 

[Primethius]

Will be disappointing if that happen because with Slim for $249 in BF and Pro, nov/dec 2016 has all potential to be the biggest for PS4.

Maybe the lack of better bundles can hurt sales, last year had CoD and Battlefront.

The bundle this year sucks compared to last. Combined with XB1 having a pretty great bundle in BF1, I don't see the PS4 being up YoY without the Pro.

And as for Pro, I'm thinking a 250/150k split across the two months.

It's all subject to change of course given details that pop up as we get closer to the holidays but that's just the sort of feeling I'm getting.

 

[allan-bh]

I doubt that. Star Wars and COd were 2 of the biggest games last year and that helped push the PS4. The standard bundle is UC4. You would need the pro to be massive which I don't see it being

I still believe Sony will introduce PS4 Slim CoD bundle in december.

 

[allan-bh]

And as for Pro, I'm thinking a 250/150k split across the two months.

That's very low, I thought that PS4 Pro was doing great.

 

[Welfare]

And as for Pro, I'm thinking a 250/150k split across the two months.

It's all subject to change of course given details that pop up as we get closer to the holidays but that's just the sort of feeling I'm getting.

Unless Sony shipped <100k units to every major country, based on Japan and UK results the Pro should have opened ~200k in the US. Add 200k to both months and that looks more realistic.

 

[Boke1879]

Sony needs a better entry level bundle anyway. Uncharted 4 is not enough.

Uncharted 4 is fine. That $250 price point on Black Friday is going to be awesome.

 

[Primethius]

Unless Sony shipped <100k units to every major country, based on Japan and UK results the Pro should have opened ~200k in the US. Add 200k to both months and that looks more realistic.

I suppose we'll see. As a Pro owner, I'll be happy to be wrong.

 

[Vena]

Uncharted 4 is fine. That $250 price point on Black Friday is going to be awesome.

Uncharted 4 and price matching the X1S hasn't been enough, why would price matching the price of X1S on Black Friday suddenly be enough?

 

[Primethius]

Speaking of pricing, have we gotten the Average Selling Price in the last few months. I'm curious to see what, if any gap, remains in the pricing.

 

[Vena]

Speaking of pricing, have we gotten the Average Selling Price in the last few months. I'm curious to see what, if any gap, remains in the pricing.

Probably obfuscated by gift card deals and such, no?

 

[sense]

Uncharted 4 and price matching the X1S hasn't been enough, why would price matching the price of X1S on Black Friday suddenly be enough?

Sony might believe it is enough if ms isn't running away with it. Depends on how you look at it. Slim is a cheap PS4 with a first party title bundled so Sony is most likely making a good amount of money compared to xb1 s which has a premium look with 4K player and a third party title like bf1 alongside another pack in or gift card most times so I doubt they are making money and I would say they are most likely losing money. I predict the slim and the xb1 s would basically be a wash in sales during Black Friday with pro numbers giving Sony the edge.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Uncharted 4 and price matching the X1S hasn't been enough, why would price matching the price of X1S on Black Friday suddenly be enough?

Because most of the months during which that hasn't been enough have also included other factors in Microsoft's favor: deep discounts and big bundles on the original One, a slim revision versus no Sony equivalent, the launch of Gears, etc. With those not operative in November, plus the addition of Pro as an upgrade option, a reversal is possible. Definitely not inevitable--Microsoft have done a good job raising their stature recently--but not easy to dismiss out of hand.

 

[Curufinwe]

Sony might believe it is enough if ms isn't running away with it. Depends on how you look at it. Slim is a cheap PS4 with a first party title bundled so Sony is most likely making a good amount of money compared to xb1 s which has a premium look with 4K player and a third party title like bf1 alongside another pack in or gift card most times so I doubt they are making money and I would say they are most likely losing money. I predict the slim and the xb1 s would basically be a wash in sales during Black Friday with pro numbers giving Sony the edge.

It seems like the default opinion here is selling a few more consoles is always good, even if you generate less actual revenue.

 

[noobie]

I have asked it earlier also. But doesnt Sony have a deal with Activision for CoD? so why dont they have a bundle this year? That bundle did quite good all year long.. or bundle deal was only for 1 year?

 

[Jarod McChicken]

Where and when is that 250$ PS4 bundle supposed to be active ? Unlike Xbox Wire, the US PS Blog did not announce any Black Friday global promotion I think (or bundles, of course).

 

[Welfare]

I have asked it earlier also. But doesnt Sony have a deal with Activision for CoD? so why dont they have a bundle this year? That bundle did quite good all year long.. or bundle deal was only for 1 year?

Will most likely have one in December. The standard Black Ops 3 bundle came out December 2015 and became the default bundle. Sony will probably have a CoD and Watch Dogs bundle.

 

[noobie]

The bundle this year sucks compared to last. Combined with XB1 having a pretty great bundle in BF1, I don't see the PS4 being up YoY without the Pro.

And as for Pro, I'm thinking a 250/150k split across the two months.

It's all subject to change of course given details that pop up as we get closer to the holidays but that's just the sort of feeling I'm getting.

I doubt that. Star Wars and COd were 2 of the biggest games last year and that helped push the PS4. The standard bundle is UC4. You would need the pro to be massive which I don't see it being

Sony needs a better entry level bundle anyway. Uncharted 4 is not enough.

Sums up nicely.

Look like Sony try to be a litttle aggressive every alternate year.

 

[Banjo-Kazooie]

Perhaps the phrase "Play early, digital bundles are all working very well." needed a "the data suggests to me that" at the front of it. Certainly impossible to "know" this as fact.

However, there are more titles that featured digital bundling (think beyond play anywhere, think about packaging with season passes digitally, etc) and more titles that allowed for early access than just MS titles. Obviously, I can't get into the by title detail, but that's what I'm seeing. I could be wrong.

Appreciate the reply!

 

[Banjo-Kazooie]

Yea, I remember that but the Halo month had pretty poor sales for that sorta launch (as we found out, due to loads being in November).

Still a solid showing for XB1, it's mainly PS4 that's not doing well.

I wouldn't say PS4 isn't doing well, but it seems obvious the Slim isn't lighting the world US on fire...at least not what you would expect for the market leader.

 

[Primethius]

Probably obfuscated by gift card deals and such, no?

Probably. Still interesting to see.

I do think there's still a general price disparity between the two boxes and I just kind of want to gauge where it's at right now.

Edit: ^ Banjo: I would say the PS4 is doing poorly, and when you consider it's market leader, it looks even worse. It was up the first few months, fell and never really recovered. And while last year showers the holidays are MASSIVE, I'm not convinced they are big enough to offset the sales loss in the smaller months.

We'll see. My number predictions are barely right in the NPD threads to begin with so who knows how wrong I am. &#128517;

 

[hollomat]

Disappointing to see mafia 3 so high and Titanfall 2 so low. Mafia 3 was by far the worst game I've played this year.

I loved the presentation and the start of the game, but repeating the same style of mission over and over just got so boring.

 

[Banjo-Kazooie]

Probably. Still interesting to see.

I do think there's still a general price disparity between the two boxes and I just kind of want to gauge where it's at right now.

Edit: ^ Banjo: I would say the PS4 is doing poorly, and when you consider it's market leader, it looks even worse. It was up the first few months, fell and never really recovered. And while last year showers the holidays are MASSIVE, I'm not convinced they are big enough to offset the sales loss in the smaller months.

We'll see. My number predictions are barely right in the NPD threads to begin with so who knows how wrong I am. &#65533;&#65533;

Ya, I know what you mean . I just would personally classify it as "meh" (insert shrug gesture here)
...and also, that is why I don't make predictions in that thread...my guesses are horrible lol

I guess I'm waiting to see what November numbers are, since everyone keeps saying, "wait for the Pro!". I guess it will be interesting to see if MS beats Sony with PSPro and Slim on the market with just the XB1S. Something tell me people might be shocked.

 

[Square2015]

DQ Builders?
DQVII?

Sales update maybe?

 

[Welfare]

Sales update maybe?

Follow Astronaut Claire on Twitter for any sales updates that will be posted on the 21st. She says she will talk about 15-20 games.

 

[Square2015]

Follow Astronaut Claire on Twitter for any sales updates that will be posted on the 21st. She says she will talk about 15-20 games.

Thanks. (Her posts should make it to GAF too I would assume)

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I'm actually talking about this in my monthly weekly average comparisons and November was pushed massively thanks to the Black Ops 3 and Battlefront bundles.

Total November | Battlefront | Black Ops 3 | Rest |
   1.539M      |     375K    |     251K    | 913K |

41% of sales came from those and this year the only equivalent would be the Pro, and I doubt that is making up over 600k sales. The trend so far has been the PS4 is down YoY so we can't just assume they will have such a big boost this year with a comparatively worse holiday offering.

What does that 600K number represent?

It doesn't have to be as big a boost as last year though. I think as long as they see a healthy rise, it'll be all good.

 

[Kill3r7]

What does that 600K number represent?

It doesn't have to be as big a boost as last year though. I think as long as they see a healthy rise, it'll be all good.

Roughly the combined number of Battlefront and BLOPS3 bundles sold last year.

 

[Welfare]

What does that 600K number represent?

It doesn't have to be as big a boost as last year though. I think as long as they see a healthy rise, it'll be all good.

Above 600k is referring to the combined sales of the CoD and Battlefront bundles (626k). Pro would need to perform similar to that in addition to regular PS4 sales improving by a larger amount than usual to be up YoY.

However, like you said they don't need to be up YoY for sales to be good. November 2015 was amazing for the PS4. Between 6th, 7th, and 8th gen, 1,539,000 is 3rd only behind the Wii's record 2,040,000 in 2008 and the Xbox 360's 1,688,000 back in 2011, both consoles peak years. If anything, 2015 could be the PS4's peak year.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Roughly the combined number of Battlefront and BLOPS3 bundles sold last year.

Above 600k is referring to the combined sales of the CoD and Battlefront bundles (626k). Pro would need to perform similar to that in addition to regular PS4 sales improving by a larger amount than usual to be up YoY.

However, like you said they don't need to be up YoY for sales to be good. November 2015 was amazing for the PS4. Between 6th, 7th, and 8th gen, 1,539,000 is 3rd only behind the Wii's record 2,040,000 in 2008 and the Xbox 360's 1,688,000 back in 2011, both consoles peak years. If anything, 2015 could be the PS4's peak year.

Okay, I see. I really doubt that will happen too.

Those 2015 numbers feel peak-ish to me. I think being remotely close to those numbers would be great. They just need to see sizable growth compared to the last few months more than anything else and I think they can do it.

 

[RexNovis]

The 3DS is doing so much better than I expected it would given how few new games it gets. New 3DS is a great system though, and I'm picking up the smaller version on BF. I highly recommend it, and the 3D effect remains dope and one of a kind. There is potentially SO much more money to be made with 3DS, especially with it's amiibo capabilties, 3D, and dirt cheap price ($99 on BF). I'm sure Nintendo will find a way to mess it up, but I see no reason the system can't continue for years to come.

For instance, why hasn't there been any attempt to convert ANY full length 3D feature films for 3DS and sell them on the eShop? If memory serves me correctly, the demo units at launch had clips of the latest Dreamworks 3D animated movie (I forget which one). Even if it was a Pokemon movie, just put it on there and see how well it sells! ey yei yei

Why on earth would anyone ever want to watch a movie on the shitty little 3DS screen? The resolution on that thing is absolutely horrid. I'm baffled at anybody claiming the 3DS is a "great peice of HW." People buy a 3DS because it plays great games they don't buy it for 3D and they sure as hell don't buy it because it's some incredible piece of HW. There were smartphones with better quality displays when the 3DS first came out now it's basically a joke in that department. I wish I could play 3DS games on a half way decent display and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

I realize this is harsh but every time I have to use a 3DS to play a game it makes me wish I could play it on any other device. The crappy screen never fails to annoy me. Playing anything on it is immedisteky less enjoyable and it's become one of my biggest gaming pet peeves this gen.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Why on earth would anyone ever want to watch a movie on the shitty little 3DS screen? The resolution on that thing is absolutely horrid. I'm baffled at anybody claiming the 3DS is a "great peice of HW." People buy a 3DS because it plays great games they don't buy it for 3D and they sure as hell don't buy it because it's some incredible piece of HW. There were smartphones with better quality displays when the 3DS first came out now it's basically a joke in that department. I wish I could play 3DS games on a half way decent display and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Dont think many are comparing the 3DS to smartphones - the new 3DS is a great upgrade compared to the regular 3DS, which is why people feel more comfortable purchasing the system.

 

[RexNovis]

The bundle this year sucks compared to last. Combined with XB1 having a pretty great bundle in BF1, I don't see the PS4 being up YoY without the Pro.

And as for Pro, I'm thinking a 250/150k split across the two months.

It's all subject to change of course given details that pop up as we get closer to the holidays but that's just the sort of feeling I'm getting.

Between the lack UHD drives in Pro and the total lack of compelling third party bundles SIE is making some truly baffling decisions that are sure to cost them dearly when it comes to consumer interest during the holiday stretch especially in the face of Battlefield 1 and Minecraft XB1S bundles.

Without some more compelling bundles I fully expect to see them down significantly YoY in both November and December. Bundles are the bread and butter of the increasingly discount and budget minded holiday shoppers.

I never would've expected them to go into the holiday season without a CoD bundle after the massive success that the BOpsIII bundle turned out to be for them. Perhaps they are cutting back on the bundles due to having other SKUs on the market (Pro & VR) but that doesn't really make much sense imo.

Dont think many are comparing the 3DS to smartphones - the new 3DS is a great upgrade compared to the regular 3DS, which is why people feel more comfortable purchasing the system.

But he said he wanted to watch 3D movies on that horrible screen hence my reaction.

 

[Welfare]

Without some more compelling bundles I fully expect to see them down significantly YoY in both November and December. Bundles are the bread and butter of the increasingly discount and budget minded holiday shoppers.

I never would've expected them to go into the holiday season without a CoD bundle after the massive success that the BOpsIII bundle turned out to be for them. Perhaps they are cutting back on the bundles due to having other SKUs on the market (Pro & VR) but that doesn't really make much sense imo.

Abdiel did say they would be told about holiday bundles after the Pro launch so we will probably see bundles launched in early December with announcements after Cyber Monday.

 

[RexNovis]

Abdiel did say they would be told about holiday bundles after the Pro launch so we will probably see bundles launched in early December with announcements after Cyber Monday.

True but I feel like that would be too late to move the needle much in the way of holiday sales. They really should provide more appealing options during the sakes rush that is November. Their refusal to do so will cost them imo

 

[Nightengale]

US is the only country where Sony doesn't sell a vanilla no-game version of PS4 Slim, and UC4 comes packed-in. For the rest of the world, 299 grants you no-gaems.

I'm guessing that global-US discrepancy due to the extra layer of competitiveness is what's causing US to be more conservative at being proactive pricing-wise.

In Europe, the 1TB IW+MW & WD1+WD2 bundles are basically priced at the 399 price range, but I'm guessing if both of the models are introduced in the US, they'll need to be at 349 or less to be more competitive in the marketplace.

And there's also the part where Sony is looking and gauging how the market is responding to Pro, as well, I guess.

I could see their angle at how they're approaching their US-strategy, but like RexNovis, if I was John Koller, I wouldn't do it the way Sony is doing it right now.

What I would had done instead:

Nov 2016:
299 500GB Uncharted + Ratchet bundle
349 1TB Uncharted Saga bundle
349 1TB WD1+WD2 bundle
349 1TB IW+MW4 bundle
399 1TB LE FFXV bundle (the standard game, not the Deluxe Edition)
399 1TB Pro

Dec 2016:
All of the above, but introduce a 500GB version without the 2nd game.
299 500GB IW bundle
299 500GB WD2 bundle
299 500GB non-LE FFXV bundle

The above strategy could easily end up bleeding Sony a lot of money, so maybe I'm wrong, but I do think they're not being aggresive enough with volume pushing. Profit margins are clearly the priority here, but I wish they could also balance the volume piece better.

 

[Primethius]

The only way the profit based strategy makes sense to me is if the PS4 is doing better WW (even a small bit) to offset the decrease in US numbers.

Otherwise, the strategy employed by Sony regarding the base PS4 and the strategy last year is a night and day difference.

Last year the pretty much went for the jugular coming off a year of consistently beating the XB1. This year seems more of a repeat of 2014 but with XB1 doing way better then XB1 usually does and winning months.

The discrepancy in strategy is odd to me unless the WW numbers are doing better but I don't think thats the case either (likely the same).

Missed opportunities all in all.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

The only way the profit based strategy makes sense to me is if the PS4 is doing better WW (even a small bit) to offset the decrease in US numbers.

And is that really unlikely? I'm trying to figure out why this being made out to be a big deal when we already know what the PS4 does WW.