True. Nintendo isn't out of the fire yet. If I had to guess, the next couple of months are going to look like gloom and doom since there isn't a ton coming out. Once Splatoon 2 hits, it'll get a nice boost, and then the holidays are going to do very well. Maybe not incredible, but solid.
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NY Times report Switch sales in North America (from interview with Reggie)
- Thread starter LordKano
- Start date
Okami Haundo
Member
It does seem worth noting that Wii and Wii-U had fall releases though! I'd argue that the timing of Switch's launch makes these numbers even more impressive by comparison. That being said, this holiday will be make or break time for Switch. It needs to do incredibly well given the software they'll have out by then.
The Main Event
Member
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is next month. It'll do decently with that.
That's a remake though
- Pokemon
- Splatoon
- Dragon Quest
now only missing:
- Monster hunter
- Yokai Watch
- shadowverse and other android/ios games. (But switch got the rhytm game, so I think there is a chance)
With this, Nintendo is ready to conquer Japan.
JB2448
Member
Of a game that previously only came out on a system that had already lost the mainstream line of sight. This is coming out during the Switch's second month on the market, and with all of the DLC included. With the proper marketing of being able to play Mario Kart with a friend anywhere with nothing extra required, it could do really, really well.
Many people sold their Wii U version attendre Gamestop will buy it again.
Chill Penguin
Member
We'll get a better idea once it's not supply constrained, but the switch seems to have an excitement behind it that the Wii u did not. My local best buys Nintendo switch area looks like it was rampaged and looted, not even any accessories left.
ZombiePlatypus
Member
Wait, it surpassed Wii's launch numbers?? That...seems unreal. The Wii hype was absolutely palpable. Might have been the xmas frenzy, but no console launch has ever felt like it had that level of excitement surrounding it from my experience.
I think it really depends on what Nintendo has planned. They have been vague about releases.
Right now Mario Kart 8 is in April and you can expect that to do well.
But Arms is announced as Spring, and Splatoon 2 as summer.
If that means
ARMS - June
Splatoon - September
You have a big problem with a drought..
If that means
ARMS - May
Splatoon - June
and more titles announced at E3 to pad out July-whenever Mario (and hopefully Pokemon) is out in the Holidays, then things will be fine.
If there really is a Pokemon stars that + Mario + Zelda + Splatoon + Kart will carry this thing into next year
Honestly though I think the former (no Splatoon until September, and a big drought during the summer) is somewhat likely and that worries me...
Right now Mario Kart 8 is in April and you can expect that to do well.
But Arms is announced as Spring, and Splatoon 2 as summer.
If that means
ARMS - June
Splatoon - September
You have a big problem with a drought..
If that means
ARMS - May
Splatoon - June
and more titles announced at E3 to pad out July-whenever Mario (and hopefully Pokemon) is out in the Holidays, then things will be fine.
If there really is a Pokemon stars that + Mario + Zelda + Splatoon + Kart will carry this thing into next year
Honestly though I think the former (no Splatoon until September, and a big drought during the summer) is somewhat likely and that worries me...
Square2015
Member
I have the Sept 96 NPD (FW sales of N64, last week of month):
1. Super Mario 64 282,000
4. Pilotwings 64 64 85,000
N64 326,000
Any more NPD #s I'd be glad to share.
TheDinoman
Member
Fall off a cliff until Splatoon 2, (which releases sometime in the summer) you mean?
darkazcura
Member
Yeah because Mario Kart and Splatoon have no appeal at all..
What month is it right now?
I forgot those historic months when MK8 and Splatoon released and drove the Wii-U sales through the roof. Oh wait a second
TheDinoman
Member
We don't know, all we've been given is a tentative summer release date. If I had a guess, it'd be sometime in July.
Rgeardless, you can't really say that sales will "fall off a cliff until the holidays" considering that Nintendo will already have at least one big game out before that period.
What game?
I can't imagine Splatoon 2 releasing after July. No way does Nintendo plan on missing summer vacation in Japan.
it's almost like the Wii U was an unappealing machine that people didn't want to buy regardless of the games that it had on it not to mention said games released at a very slow clip
The Wii had major stock problems, I remember it not readily being available for months.
I agree that it was an unappealing system but it's still a game that already released. It's not a system seller
Lionel Richie
Member
Mario Kart isn't a system seller?
Not a re-release no way. MK8 did nothing to boost Wii U sales. It sold within a closed eco system which is absolutely what this one will do
ArtHands
Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
Lots of people said that for Zelda BOTW and look what we have now.
Well MK Wii had a big impact on the Wii (another system people were hyped about) and Splatoon turned the Wii U story around for several months in Japan (and didn't sell too bad in other regions).
Not saying that will happen again, but we shouldn't use WiiU as a precedent and ignore the Wii.
Launch days sales don't matter much in the grand scale (Switch sales in the first 18 months are more telling about its future for instance).
However for the markets we have the sell-through for the launch, Switch performed better than WiiU, markedly so in Countries like UK and France (at least 100% more):
France
Switch: 105K
WiiU: 45K
UK
Switch: 80K
WiiU: 40K
Japan:
Switch: 331K
WiiU: 309K
maybe, it's hard to say.
But considering the the way they've been advertising MK8D so far (with it so far out), they seem to think it will be big.
They don't seem to through marketing weight around very often, so for now, I'll agree with them that it has good sales potential. All we really have to go off so far is Comgnet preorders, so we'll see.
Those people are nuts. An open world Zelda come on. I haven't been a Nintendo fan since the Wii but even I knew I was day1 for switch and OW Zelda.
Of course they are nothing else is releasing. That's not a indication of confidence but necessity
Yes you should. The Wii should never be used as a barometer as it was a gimmick that caught the attention of the main stream and casual market and in a way that hasn't happened since. Nothing about the Switch is even remotely close to mirroring that casual excitement. A new amazing Zelda came out on a new system nothing more nothing less.
ArtHands
Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
I think Mario Kart is going to do fine, since it is on a brand new system, and people will be looking for a reason to buy a Switch which is doing well currently. It didn't become a reason for many as Wii U has been out for quite a while by then, and the future of the Wii U back then isn't as bright as Nintendo Switch now.
I've learned to never say this stuff about Nintendo. They'll release it in 2018 if the fuckin want to.
I think with the large swath of diehard fans that will double dip and a very, very big market that had no idea the Wii U even existed, Mario Kart will do fine.
The Wii U was essentially already dead by the time Mario Kart, Smash, Mario Maker, and Splatoon came out. If the Switch gets all of those games in its first year, in addition to BotW, Mario Odyssey, and maybe a Pokemon game, that will go a long way towards averting the Wii U's failure.
True. NSMBU didn't seem to have the effect they desired. Probably due to NSMB2 and SM3DL existing so 3DS owners maybe not having a reason to get the console.
So it took a year for 3D Mario to come out and then 1.5 years for Mario Kart. And then 2 for Smash.
If Switch manages to get Pokemon, it'll have a multiplat Zelda with obvious Switch focus as shown by sales splits, MK8D which may drive sales we'll see, Splatoon 2 which will be big, ARMS which is a wildcard, Pokemon which is fire, and Mario Odyssey which is huge.
Within 9 months.
The key things are Zelda doing to expectations, Pokemon existing, Mario doing expectations, Splatoon 2 likewise, MK8D doing well, and a game to do better than expectations (FE W, ARMs, etc)
If we agree to not use the Wii as a barometer we should also not use the WiiU. As both are outliers.
But we shall see I suppose.
I don't see how anyone can make absolute statements this early. Either positive or negative. There just aren't enough data points.
NoMoreTrolls
Banned
The GameCube, then?
How was Wii U an outlier? If anything the Wii was an outlier. Nintendo hasn't been at the forefront of the console market in more than a decade. The Wii U was a return to form. Hardware that was if were going to be kind - subpar with a fair number of excellent first party games and pretty much a barren 3rd party landscape. It continued the downward trend that had been going on since the N64, the Wii is a freak scattershot.
Earthbound64
Banned
Pokken with DLC would've been the perfect stop gap game. Either for now until MK8, or for MK8 until Splatoon (if ARMs doesn't sell). It just makes too much since, especially given the DLC situation.
It'd be up to Namco though.
I feel like all they would need is the DLC, and a better resolution (rez is already dynamic). It wouldn't be ideal for remaster content, but getting games out is the priority imo.
It'd be up to Namco though.
I feel like all they would need is the DLC, and a better resolution (rez is already dynamic). It wouldn't be ideal for remaster content, but getting games out is the priority imo.
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
digital?
maybe they rented?
BuggyDClown
Member
To a very small number of people.
Anecdotal but I know so many Wii owners who are itchingg for this console and didn't even know the Wii u existed. It's crazy.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
I think Arms can be big if Nintendo markets it right.
I didn't get it right away because it was $80. I think I rented games for the first month until I had enough for Mario.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Them Pilotwings gamers
Version 3.0
Member
Yeah, trying to predict Nintendo is foolish. In the case of release schedule, though, they're not bonkers like they are about many other things. They're just really slow.
The Wii U was as much of an outlier as the Wii. You're hawking some seriously revisionist history here. From a hardware standpoint, the Wii U philosophy was most like the Wii but without a compelling hook for the expanded audience. Its design philosophy was nothing like the GC, 64, SNES, or NES. Wii U was also the first nintendo console to not have strong third party support. The Wii did not get many major multiplats because of hardware limitations but it got a substantial amount of third party content because of its installed base alone. The GC even had great third party support with multiplat parity being the norm until the last 1-2 years or so when it dried up. Get your facts straight.