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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

Alo0oy

Banned
What a fuck up by MS to say the least. Halo 5 will still sell really well but the franchise most definitely ain't what it used to be anymore. Also shows how weak Sony and MS first party is when I say Halo 5 will still easily be the best selling exclusive on either console. Sony and MS don't have any big franchises to compete with the big boys, simple as that.

5 million (if the US performs similar to UK percentage-wise) is not a tall order for Uncharted at all, Uncharted 3 shipped that many in its first month alone.
 

Boke1879

Member
Ehhh.... I'd take this with a grain of salt... I think I recall him saying something similar after sunset overdrive came out on a podcast...

Well he's not going to say any game is doing badly. And I'm sure Halo is selling VERY well. Just not up to par with the series standard.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Phil Spencer is happy about Halo 5 sales, so I guess Halo 5 did really well in US (I doubt it doing that well in other countries).

Ou8pJjQ.png


https://twitter.com/XboxP3/status/661272574156902400

Well, this is nothing. He can be happy even with 1 million sold worldwide for what we know.

( Just a example )
 

allan-bh

Member
UK counts bundled games, but I don't know if they count bundled digital games. In any case, I still fully expect Halo 5 to be over 2m with digital in the U.S. with the question still being if it'll cross 3m or not. If it's less than 2m, then Halo, as we knew it in sales terms, is gone.

After UK sales I think 3 million is impossible in just 5 days. I believe will be less than 2 million in NPD and with digital maybe more than 2 million.
 

Boke1879

Member
Well, this is nothing. He can be happy even with 1 million sold worldwide for what we know.

( Just a example )

Yea it can be nothing or it can be everything lol.

That said I wonder if the talk of the UK numbers will force MS to put out some sort of statement?
 
Well the UK chart tracker is now public knowledge. I'd just be shocked if they gave us no sort of PR with it being out on the market for a week.
This really would be strange. MS always was known for aggressive PR (that's not bad, by the way) and masterful spin. Not giving any comment now almost looks like fatigue.

did fake kaz give a twitter statement yet?
 
What a fuck up by MS to say the least. Halo 5 will still sell really well but the franchise most definitely ain't what it used to be anymore. Also shows how weak Sony and MS first party is when I say Halo 5 will still easily be the best selling exclusive on either console. Sony and MS don't have any big franchises to compete with the big boys, simple as that.

I think Uncharted 4 will have massive sales if it reviews as well Naught Dogs last few games. None of Sony's biggest IPs(Uncharted, TLOU, Gran Turismo and God Of War). have released new games on PS4 yet so I don' think you can make that judgment on the strength of their exclusives. It is clear that multiplats rule now though and it has been that way for a while.
 

vin-buc

Member
I'm not sure we'll get sales numbers for Halo 5. Msft said they wouldn't be talking numbers anymore - what's not to say they are referring to all their properties (hardware/software)? Also, interesting how the tweet added "....and XBL usage" along with game sales. That's the parameter they're gauging success with. Kinda funny if you ask me.
 

allan-bh

Member
The excitement about PS4 sales and Naughty Dog is leading at some predictions for Uncharted 4 that I believe are unrealistic.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Hummm... I guess 7-8 million lifetime is fine for Uncharted 4.

That would match the average sales for the trilogy (21 million/3 games = 7 million), we also know that Uncharted 1 only sold 3 million, so there's 18 million to split between UC2 & 3, other info we have is that UC3 sold twice as much as UC2 in its debut week.
 

allan-bh

Member
I'm not sure we'll get sales numbers for Halo 5. Msft said they wouldn't be talking numbers anymore - what's not to say they are referring to all their properties (hardware/software)? Also, interesting how the tweet added "....and XBL usage" along with game sales. That's the parameter they're gauging success with. Kinda funny if you ask me.

They said that will not report quarterly HW sales.

About software, for long years MS doesn't reveal specific sales number, so nothing new.
 

allan-bh

Member
That would match the average sales for the trilogy (21 million/3 games = 7 million), we also know that Uncharted 1 only sold 3 million, so there's 18 million to split between UC2 & 3, other info we have is that UC3 sold twice as much as UC2 in its debut week.

Where did you get this info about UC3 selling twice?
 

ethomaz

Banned
That would match the average sales for the trilogy (21 million/3 games = 7 million), we also know that Uncharted 1 only sold 3 million, so there's 18 million to split between UC2 & 3, other info we have is that UC3 sold twice as much as UC2 in its debut week.
I do believe Uncharted sold more than 3 million but I'm a bit tired now to find anything lol
 
What a fuck up by MS to say the least. Halo 5 will still sell really well but the franchise most definitely ain't what it used to be anymore. Also shows how weak Sony and MS first party is when I say Halo 5 will still easily be the best selling exclusive on either console. Sony and MS don't have any big franchises to compete with the big boys, simple as that.

Halo will not sell more than GT7\GTS WW that is for certain .
Hell i say UC4 will now out sell halo WW .
 

mejin

Member
If anyone said months ago that the best lineup in Xbox history would fail to gain any momentum to Microsoft. That would be crazy, everyone would laugh.

We have a similar situation right now and that's Sony's time now. By march 2016, I think everyone expects U4 to close an amazing fiscal year for PS4. That's what's expected. If people will eat crow like some are eating now with microsoft lineup and Halo 5 we don't really know. We'll need receipts.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
I believe shipped twice more? Isn't clear in the news.

Anyway, I remember the 3.8m shipped on day one figure, to bad that Sony don't reveal other updates to have an idea about sales legs, but with combine franchise sales maybe shipped around 7 million? Don't know...

Yeah, we don't know sales for every individual title, 7 million is the minimum because it's the average across 3 titles. But it can't be 7 million because the first game sold like shit (relatively).
 

allan-bh

Member
Yeah, we don't know sales for every individual title, 7 million is the minimum because it's the average across 3 titles. But it can't be 7 million because the first game sold like shit (relatively).

The overall number doesn't includes Uncharted Vita? There's also Uncharted Dual Pack that adds sales for the first two games.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
The overall number doesn't includes Uncharted Vita? There's also Uncharted Dual pack that adds sales for the first two games.

It doesn't, in the PR for the 21 million they said it's only the titles included in the Nathan Drake Collection.
 
The overall number doesn't includes Uncharted Vita? There's also Uncharted Dual Pack that adds sales for the first two games.

It does not count the Vita game .
I would say UC is most likely around 7 to 8 million .
Either way it going to be interesting see if the IP grows again with the PS4 install base.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
The Uncharted franchise sold 8 million just one month before UC3's release according to Sony's PR in October 2011:

http://www.jp.playstation.com/info/release/nr_20111004_uncharted3.html
(It's in Japanese, but use Google translate).

Since then, the franchise sold an additional 13 million units. UC3 very likely sold ~10 million of that, the remaining 3 million can be attributed to the double pack re-release & legacy sales.

EDIT: Actually, the 8 million includes the double pack sales, since the double pack released in September.
 
Boy if Halo 5 comes in at 1.5m that would be some serious decline. 2m wouldn't be so bad especially with digital on top. Less than 1.5m... yikes. I'd prepare the bunker.

Historically, bad games in the franchise results in lowered sales in the next game in said franchise. The Master Chief Collection (and, come to think of it, AssCreed Unity) was an unmitigated disaster, and so I'd expect the sales of Halo 5 (and AssCreed Syndicate) to be noticeably, negatively affected.
 
Well he's not going to say any game is doing badly. And I'm sure Halo is selling VERY well. Just not up to par with the series standard.

No doubt, he is saying exactly what a guy in his position is supposed to see.

My point is we probably can't take anything from that comment.
 

Kill3r7

Member
Just out of curiosity outside of GTAV what other major franchises have shown significant growth over the last 2 to 3 years? I can think of Witcher 3 this year and obviously Destiny and Watchdogs did pretty well last year but those are new IPs.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Just out of curiosity outside of GTAV what other major franchises have shown significant growth over the last 2 to 3 years? I can think of Witcher 3 this year and obviously Destiny and Watchdogs did pretty well last year but those are new IPs.

Well, the game that I was talking about above.

Fallout 4 is likely to show significant growth as well, FO3 barely sold 6 million, & I think FO4 can sell 10+ million.
 

Kill3r7

Member
The Uncharted franchise sold 8 million just one month before UC3's release according to Sony's PR in October 2011:

http://www.jp.playstation.com/info/release/nr_20111004_uncharted3.html
(It's in Japanese, but use Google translate).

Since then, the franchise sold an additional 13 million units. UC3 very likely sold ~10 million of that, the remaining 3 million can be attributed to the double pack re-release & legacy sales.

EDIT: Actually, the 8 million includes the double pack sales, since the double pack released in September.

I am not sure there is anyone who could tell you what UC3 sales are. The series had a huge jump in total sales to 21M after UC3 came out yet IIRC Sony never mentioned UC3 crossing the 10M mark.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
I am not sure there is anyone who could tell you what UC3 sales are. The series had a huge jump in total sales to 21M after UC3 came out yet IIRC Sony never mentioned UC3 crossing the 10M mark.

It is weird that Sony never mentioned 10 million, but we didn't get any update on TLOU sales since August 2014 (it was 8 million), & that game has been bundled with nearly every PS4 since last holiday, so that game probably crossed the 10 million mark easily by the end of last year with no PR in sight yet.
 
I'm not sure we'll get sales numbers for Halo 5. Msft said they wouldn't be talking numbers anymore - what's not to say they are referring to all their properties (hardware/software)? Also, interesting how the tweet added "....and XBL usage" along with game sales. That's the parameter they're gauging success with. Kinda funny if you ask me.


I noticed that too, they had to get the usage stats in there, since they just stated that is their metric now....


They will have some legit Halo PR very soon, but at the latest, it will be NPD PR....Especially if Sony wins October, expect lots of Halo PR from Microsoft...
 

Alo0oy

Banned
I will never understand why Phil, Greenburg and Major Nelson interact with Tim Dog so much on Twitter, it's funny....I even think they gave him E3 passes this year...He is quite an interesting Twitter user...

He's just a harmless fan on twitter, he never did anything malicious.
 

Kill3r7

Member
It is weird that Sony never mentioned 10 million, but we didn't get any update on TLOU sales since August 2014 (it was 8 million), & that game has been bundled with nearly every PS4 since last holiday, so that game probably crossed the 10 million mark easily by the end of last year with no PR in sight yet.

Agreed TLOU should have crossed the 10M mark at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if UC3 did as well (I just thought it was kind of strange that Sony hasn't announced it yet).
 
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