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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

Yeesh. I know it's early but damn. With BF pretty much have price parity. Seems most retailers are going $299 for both consoles. It really just comes down to how many games you can bundle with the system.

Sam's Club Black Friday Ad just leaked. They have the Xbox One Gears of War Bundle for $299.


So another Black Friday ad where the prices are staying at $299 (except the nice Meijer deal with the extra $50 coupon). Seems so far, the deals now are better than Black Friday, at least for the Xbox 1. Cant wait until WalMart, Best Buy, Target and Toys R US ads leak.
 
If no one picks the game up, they aren't.

Edit: The point I'm trying to make is, we don't need numbers for it to make sense. We just need to see which game has more demand currently PS4 FO4 has more demand for obvious reasons over XB1 version but RoTTR can have more demand that FO4 version because it is more genre oriented on XB1 instead of an RPG.

Pick up rate percentages are extremely high.

Are you telling me you think there is even a 10% chance RotTR will outsell FO4 on Xbone

Curious what you believe FO4 launch numbers will look like.
 

Somnia

Member
Microsoft made a mistake choosing the 1TB console for new bundles.

The standard bundle for holidays is with Gears Ultimate, a remaster/remake of a 2006 game that is out since august. Last year the standard bundle was much better with two Assassin's Creed including a new one.

Bundles with Fallout 4, Rise of the Tomb Raider and Holiday w/ 3 games at $349 and $299 on BF would be much better.

Most places are doing $50 off for black friday so the fallout 4, tomb raider and holiday bundle are 349.
 

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
Either way, it's probably in MS' best interest to throw in the towel on Xbox One and speed up development of the next one for a 2017 release. That Xbox One reveal, we laugh at it now, but MS basically ceded this generation to Sony.

It's probably time to consider Xbox One a lost cause and move on to the next one ASAP.
 
Pick up rate percentages are extremely high.

Are you telling me you think there is even a 10% chance RotTR will outsell FO4 on Xbone

Curious what you believe FO4 launch numbers will look like.

Don't get me wrong FO4 will kill RoTTR demand heavily. I just don't see RPG's selling well on XB1 than average genre games. Remember this is just one shop we are talking about (in NY) and FO4 has better chance of having legs while RoTTR is more front loaded.
 

Boke1879

Member
Either way, it's probably in MS' best interest to throw in the towel on Xbox One and speed up development of the next one for a 2017 release. That Xbox One reveal, we laugh at it now, but MS basically ceded this generation to Sony.

It's probably time to consider Xbox One a lost cause and move on to the next one ASAP.

No lol. The XB1 can be a profitable machine and a good console. Just because they aren't "winning" in global sales doesn't mean the console is doomed.

If that was the case the PS3 wouldn't have lasted 7-8 years
 

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
No lol. The XB1 can be a profitable machine and a good console. Just because they aren't "winning" in global sales doesn't mean the console is doomed.

If that was the case the PS3 wouldn't have lasted 7-8 years

If Sony can beat MS in a month where a major Halo game gets released, then it has to be considered.

Throw in the towel, clean sheet design, start over.
 
Don't get me wrong FO4 will kill RoTTR demand heavily. I just don't see RPG's selling well on XB1 than average genre games. Remember this is just one shop we are talking about (in NY) and FO4 has better chance of having legs while RoTTR is more front loaded.

Fallout 4 is going to launch absolutely gigantic on both consoles. It will dwarf TR even on the Xbone
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Don't get me wrong FO4 will kill RoTTR demand heavily. I just don't see RPG's selling well on XB1 than average genre games.

We aren't talking about a JRPG.

The game should do fine. PS4 version will have higher sales for obvious reasons though.
__________________

If Sony can beat MS in a month where a major Halo game gets released, then it has to be considered.

Throw in the towel, clean sheet design, start over.

No. Too over the top. The system is nowhere close to being in that much trouble. They made a huge amount of money from Halo's launch regardless of if they win or lose October NPD.

The console will remain relevant in the territories it's doing solid in and MS will just build things up from there when it comes to creating more support for people who own the console and people who don't that may be eventually interested in it.
 
If Sony can beat MS in a month where a major Halo game gets released, then it has to be considered.

Throw in the towel, clean sheet design, start over.
I'm sure they have already started that before the release of Halo. Even so, they can still get some use out of the system. Get as much profit as possible before heading into next gen.
 

Boke1879

Member
If Sony can beat MS in a month where a major Halo game gets released, then it has to be considered.

Throw in the towel, clean sheet design, start over.

nah lol. It may not win this gen but it can still make money. It's still a viable console and one many people are interested in. Yes their reveal was a clusterfuck, but now it's an attractive alternative.
 

Somnia

Member
So I use to run gamestop locations for 5 years a long time ago, been out of retail for quite awhile. Decided to pick up some hours this holiday by helping an old friend out at his store.

Xbox Ones fucking went off this weekend in my town (there's 3 stores). I know at the store I help out we sold all 12 of our elite bundles, all 10 of our holiday bundles and when I left we had 5 gears of war bundles left and started with I believe 15 (could be wrong).

We also sold 10 PS4 COD systems, no idea on uncharted ones.

Was a crazy weekend period for everyone.
 
So I use to run gamestop locations for 5 years awhile ago, been out of retail for quite awhile. Decided to pick up some hours this holiday by helping an old friend out at his store.

Xbox Ones fucking went off this weekend in my town (there's 3 stores). I know at the store I help out we sold all 12 of our elite bundles, all 10 of our holiday bundles and when I left we had 5 gears of war bundles left and started with I believe 15 (could be wrong).

We also sold 10 PS4 COD systems, no idea on uncharted ones.

Was a crazy weekend period for everyone.

I believe that fo sho
 

Purest 78

Member
No lol. The XB1 can be a profitable machine and a good console. Just because they aren't "winning" in global sales doesn't mean the console is doomed.

If that was the case the PS3 wouldn't have lasted 7-8 years

Ps3 survived with worldwide sales, but still got destroyed By 360 in the US. X1 Is losing in the US and has no chance of WW sales to save it. So it's really not the same scenario At all.
 

Boke1879

Member
So I use to run gamestop locations for 5 years a long time ago, been out of retail for quite awhile. Decided to pick up some hours this holiday by helping an old friend out at his store.

Xbox Ones fucking went off this weekend in my town (there's 3 stores). I know at the store I help out we sold all 12 of our elite bundles, all 10 of our holiday bundles and when I left we had 5 gears of war bundles left and started with I believe 15 (could be wrong).

We also sold 10 PS4 COD systems, no idea on uncharted ones.

Was a crazy weekend period for everyone.

This month and holiday by extension will be insane.
 

Boke1879

Member
Ps3 survived with worldwide sales, but still got destroyed By 360 in the US. X1 Is losing in the US and has no chance of WW sales to save it. So it's really not the same scenario At all.

My overall point is that MS can and still will be profitable with this. Of course they are looking into their next console. Sony is as well.

But to say MS should cut their losses and essentially abandon the XB1 is crazy.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Ps3 survived with worldwide sales, but still got destroyed By 360 in the US. X1 Is losing in the US and has no chance of WW sales to save it. So it's really not the same scenario At all.

It's not the exact same scenario but both situations are no where close to "doom" (a la Wii U).
 

gaming_noob

Member
Either way, it's probably in MS' best interest to throw in the towel on Xbox One and speed up development of the next one for a 2017 release. That Xbox One reveal, we laugh at it now, but MS basically ceded this generation to Sony.

It's probably time to consider Xbox One a lost cause and move on to the next one ASAP.

They could release a new console in 2017, then in 2019 when Xbox starts to hit its stride PS5 comes out.
 

donny2112

Member
It did when Halo 2 launched. OGBox was the best selling console in Nov+Dec 2004, but the PS2 was pretty close to it.

PS2 was in the midst of shortages during the transition to PSTwo at that time. Note that Jan and Feb were way higher than normal for PS2 in 2005, which was a result from pent-up demand being satisfied.
 

Somnia

Member
What? I believe you. Seems.......accurate

It's hard to tell with your post if you actually believe me or if you're being a smart ass :)

Unlike the guy you quoted earlier who's numbers seem weird. Tomb Raider has 7 reserves in our store and over 200 on fallout (almost split 50/50). Battlefront is over 250 with over 60% on PS4.
 
It's hard to tell with your post if you actually believe me or if you're being a smart ass :)

Unlike the guy you quoted earlier who's numbers seem weird. Tomb Raider has 7 reserves in our store and over 200 on fallout (almost split 50/50). Battlefront is over 250 with over 60% on PS4.

Everything in this post sounds on point.

Read it peeps
 

Elandyll

Banned
Sam's Club Black Friday Ad just leaked. They have the Xbox One Gears of War Bundle for $299. The PS4 is not listed in their ad.


So another Black Friday ad where the prices are staying at $299 (except the nice Meijer deal with the extra $50 coupon). Seems so far, the deals now are better than Black Friday, at least for the Xbox 1. Cant wait until WalMart, Best Buy, Target and Toys R US ads leak.

According to what I' ve seen the PS4 -is- listed as an online only deal, but it doesn't add up.

They have a bundle Battlefront PS4 (regular ed) + 2nd controller (the game doesn't have local co-op afaik) for ... $389. .. no deal at all pretty much.

EDIT: Actually the PS4 is in the front page of the Sam's club BF ad, so nm.

Their "Event Deal" is the Uncharted bundle at $299, along with a vizio 58" at $698 and a HP 15.6" laptop @ $499.

http://www.bfads.net/Black-Friday/Sams-Club/Ad?page=1#viewer

The PS4 is going to sell BOAT LOADS.
 

samar11

Member
It's hard to tell with your post if you actually believe me or if you're being a smart ass :)

Unlike the guy you quoted earlier who's numbers seem weird. Tomb Raider has 7 reserves in our store and over 200 on fallout (almost split 50/50). Battlefront is over 250 with over 60% on PS4.

I thought you needed to be mod certified or something like that for that kind of stuff?
 

donny2112

Member
Welcome to GAF! Just wanted to say I appreciate your well explained analysis and I agree on most every accounts.
...
Anyways, always nice to see promising new members join the discussion. Look forward to your continued presence in SalesGAF.

Agreed. Always welcome to have more contributions with good supporting analysis!
 

Somnia

Member
To be fair years ago when I ran stores I wouldn't mention shit and beyond those last couple posts I probably won't post much more. I'm just helping out for a couple months so it's whatever to me.
 
but now it's an attractive alternative.

Says who? Xbone doesn't have anything to offer in 2016 (I know the lineup, 5-6 games so far. A bit jelly about Scalebound). Look at what Sony is bringing in.

It already looks like MS is trying to do damage control and save up for the possible next console.
 

Boke1879

Member
According to what I' ve seen the PS4 -is- listed as an online only deal, but it doesn't add up.

They have a bundle Battlefront PS4 (regular ed) + 2nd controller (the game doesn't have local co-op afaik) for ... $389. .. no deal at all pretty much.

EDIT: Actually the PS4 is in the front page of the Sam's club BF ad, so nm.

Their "Event Deal" is the Uncharted bundle at $299, along with a vizio 58" at $698 and a HP 15.6" laptop @ $499.

http://www.bfads.net/Black-Friday/Sams-Club/Ad?page=1#viewer

The PS4 is going to sell BOAT LOADS.

Walmart and BB need to release theirs. Just to confirm $299 at those stores.
 
We aren't talking about a JRPG.

The game should do fine. PS4 version will have higher sales for obvious reasons though.

He was talking about RPG's, in general, which includes WPRG's. Though unlike Dragon Age: Inquisition and The Witcher III, Fallout 4 has FPS qualities.
 
We aren't talking about a JRPG.

The game should do fine. PS4 version will have higher sales for obvious reasons though.
__________________



No. Too over the top. The system is nowhere close to being in that much trouble. They made a huge amount of money from Halo's launch regardless of if they win or lose October NPD.

The console will remain relevant in the territories it's doing solid in and MS will just build things up from there when it comes to creating more support for people who own the console and people who don't that may be eventually interested in it.

I agree. However, I do think we will see a redesigned XB1 soon, though (maybe at one of the next two E3s). I think they can make the system much smaller and still not have to worry about heating issues. I assume that's the reason why it was so big in the first place (even with having a power brick). They absolutely wanted to avoid another red ring fiasco. If they do a redesign, I wonder if they would drop some things. For instance, I wonder if they would axe the HDMI Out feature and, if so, I wonder how much money and space they'd be saving if they did so.
 

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
nah lol. It may not win this gen but it can still make money. It's still a viable console and one many people are interested in. Yes their reveal was a clusterfuck, but now it's an attractive alternative.
It's still a major stigma, the ghosts of Mattrick. I think Spencer said in the past few weeks that people still ask him if the X1 is always online. That, plus the resolution stuff and the parity clause for indies, Forza 6 failing to chart on the NPDs and RotTR being sent out to die... if Nintendo is no longer playing with house money, MS should follow their lead too.
 

Somnia

Member
It's still a major stigma, the ghosts of Mattrick. I think Spencer said in the past few weeks that people still ask him if the X1 is always online. That, plus the resolution stuff and the parity clause for indies, Forza 6 failing to chart on the NPDs and RotTR being sent out to die... if Nintendo is no longer playing with house money, MS should follow their lead too.

We still get people in the store asking if XB1 plays used games or if you have to be online. It's something that will last the entire generation. They just have to do what they can to fight that stigma over the entire generation to get ready for the next.
 
Welp, there goes MS only marketing deal.

Swerving around marketing deals are like the expected norm these days. MS/Sony will both pull "moves" against the stuff that gets their boots shaking.

The question is of course which deals manage to be effective despite competition undercutting the deal with a freebie. Last year's Destiny deal was a strong example of a huge win for Sony, where the more expensive marketing deal bundle won over the freebie bundle significantly.
 
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