3rdamention
Member
NPD for November will be won on Black Friday, so who knows..But Sony does have a ton of momentum headed into November with those Star Wars and COD Bundle preorders...
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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
NPD for November will be won on Black Friday, so who knows..But Sony does have a ton of momentum headed into November with those Star Wars and COD Bundle preorders...
PS4 will win november. Black Friday ads show that PS4 will also be sold at $299. Xbox One will sell big, but will not outsell PS4.
The problem with this comparison is that Halo is very US-Centric, Assassin's Creed for example sells less than 1.5 million on NPD (aside from AC3), and most Assassin's Creed games end up selling 10+ million. That's why 1.5 million for Halo on NPD is bad, if the US can't pull its weight, the franchise has no hope of selling anywhere near as well as it used to, like not even close.
Well what XB1 is doing now is what PS4 did last year, that is, to keep the price as is (or even make some premiere package for Halo5) to ensure some profit. Last year the goal was to expand the market as the first priority. I'm sure Microsoft isn't unhappy with the performance, at least within US, for now.
3rdamention
Member
Oh, I agree, but really we don't know yet for sure...I would predict a PS4 win as well, without much thought...I just still can't believe MS is trying to play the price parity game...
I agree with the"MS wants to maximize profits this holiday" narrative... However, it's hard to forget the sales they offered last year...I expected them to have some crazy deals this year, despite saying multiple times they would probably stick with pack ins and gift cards without big price discounts....I mean, it's post season, and they have to have some crazy deals somewhere this BF outside of the current deals right??? Maybe they simply don't....
VanCityGamer
Member
What happened to Aqua anyway?
razgriz417
Member
got caught by npd and forced to give up her gaf account or lose her job
VanCityGamer
Member
Wow, is that really what happened or are you joking? If true, I'm kind of surprised they didn't just fire her straight up for leaking the numbers.
Honestly I think that last year was kinda a "Let's save Xbox One" operation in America. Expectations were that PS4 would win big in holidays and this would lead for a terrible momentum for Xbox One in 2015.
Microsoft needed to be aggressive and they managed a huge win in holidays and builded the YoY growth in 2015.
Now with Xbox One better positioned they're targeting good sales and profit.
Because of Xbox extreme price drops last holiday, the brand perception of XBOX one console is a console that is too expensive for the price. Right now, people expect XBOX one to cost $250, cheaper than the wii U.
How crazy is that? My guess is marketing doing damage control and effect the value strategy of getting more than what you are paying for. The value proposition has worked so well for PS4.
The loss leader strategy by XBOX one actually back fired and reinforced PS4 as the superior product.
razgriz417
Member
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
They already played their price card, they need to switch focus to the games they have (which is what their marketing campaign has done). They have left themselves little room to price cut any further, and doing so temporarily for the holidays would kill their "pre-season" sales next year. They are loosing too much ground in the other 10 months, especially WW to ignore it anymore.
true unfortunately
Aqua couldn't have said where she work, became a easy target. Look at creamsugar, we know nothing about him and he's helping us with data for several years.
Unfortunately we lost her, but at least she kept her job.
FunkyPajamas
Member
If this is really going to be a five to six year gen, I can totally see how Microsoft could drop price to $299 and keep it there for another year, year and a half. I mean, we're two years in the generation and sure, they've dropped from $499 to $349 (by getting rid of the 100USD Kinect so it's actually just a $50 drop), why not go to $299 if they really want to close the gap?
Then again, their latest PR basically says "we don't care about winning, we care about having good content", so sure, they probably won't have an aggressive pricing strategy from here on. Just make sure they get their good will back and be ready for the next generation three or so years from now.
So I don't agree with the "they can't drop price", but I do think they're just not going to. They're probably all about profits and content seeing as how it's unlikely (not impossible) for them to catch up to Sony now.
Then again, their latest PR basically says "we don't care about winning, we care about having good content", so sure, they probably won't have an aggressive pricing strategy from here on. Just make sure they get their good will back and be ready for the next generation three or so years from now.
So I don't agree with the "they can't drop price", but I do think they're just not going to. They're probably all about profits and content seeing as how it's unlikely (not impossible) for them to catch up to Sony now.
Obliterator
Member
Can't disagree with that. The franchise is certainly facing a major decline. I'm just saying its not a doomed franchise or anything. It can still launch big and sell several million copies. But yeah the days of it being a juggernaut hanging with COD sell in on the Xbox platform are likely over.
HORRORSHØW
Member
[PS4] 420k
[WIU] 42k
[XB1] 420k
[WIU] 42k
[XB1] 420k
Xbox needs this month and Ps4 only needs to lose by less than 50k. Anything more than that would be considered a victory by Sony. This means they would have successfully negated the launch of a new Halo for the first time. Long story short, even if Microsoft wins, it will only be seen as a small victory. "Microsoft needed to win" "It was still close, even with their signature franchise." Instead of headlines reading "Xbox and Halo win October big." They want headlines saying " halo stops the bleeding."
You should agree though. They're still selling 349$ Xbone at loss.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Let's say they did drop the price and had similar performance to last holiday season. The same scenario would probably happen again where the PS4 outsells Xbox One for most of 2016 despite being more expensive while Xbox continues to de-value its product.
Isn't the gap also larger this year than it was going into last holiday season?
Sangetsu-II
Member
It's almost the same if I remember correctly...
slavesnyder
Member
So funny to see how much attention an NPD avatar + name and some elaborate words from the sales cookbook create.
The thirst for leakers/insiders is real.
The thirst for leakers/insiders is real.
According to Amazon, PS4 will most likely take a narrow victory. It will be close, no matter who wins.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
I wish this industry would be open and just release numbers. No need to feel ashamed.
slavesnyder
Member
If you had a monopoly on the numbers and people were willing to pay a shitload of money to get access... Would you spread them for free?
And about "no need to be ashamed "...
This is exactly the big question this month.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Yep things got worst as time went on for every where else but Japan .
Add it DD and sales age info going to be less and less.
As an hypothetical. At what point does the physical numbers being sellable become obsolete? Currently we use around 95% accuracy for npd?
As digital grows more, at what point do the numbers become irrelevant for purchase as the accuracy overall falls?
85% and lower? There must be a point where the margin of error becomes to big and the cost no longer worth it?
What then I wonder.
ZorpAttacks
Neo Member
http://venturebeat.com/2015/11/07/microsoft-works-with-gamestop-to-help-xbox-one-combat-playstation-4-black-ops-iii-bundle/
Looks like Microsoft is going with the 'Buy an Xbox, get ANY game free' strategy to combat Sony marketing deals. I assume we'll see the same with Battlefront?
Looks like Microsoft is going with the 'Buy an Xbox, get ANY game free' strategy to combat Sony marketing deals. I assume we'll see the same with Battlefront?
But deal already exists somewhere???
Abdiel, how Tomb Raider preorders shaping up?
He commented on Tomb Raider earlier in the thread.
Edit: This is about the bundle, maybe he can comment on pre-orders for the game.
I have no idea why I'm awake at 6am EST...
But, hey. Um. Tomb Raider preorders last time I checked (And if I'm wrong when I go in next, I'll update) were not looking that impressive. It has copies ordered, but the XB1 was the weakest platform for the franchise anyway, and it's releasing on Fallout Day, so to speak, as I commented earlier.
I'm sure Square will accept whatever they get because they *are* releasing other versions of the game down the line since it's not a permanent exclusive and they got a ton of money out of it (purely speculative, but I doubt the gave this deal up for a penny, despite what people seem to assume).
Basically, I don't think it's going to be utterly pathetic. But it certainly won't look great by any means the franchises has been weighted on previously from the trend I'm seeing. Bundle though? It's got some preorders, but it's got basically zero buzz around it, releasing on the same day as a much bigger title.
(I'll also clarify - These are all considerations based around Tomb Raider's brand and ability to sell. Tales of Zestiria and Dragon Quest Heroes will both almost certainly sell vastly less, but still not be considered disappointments by comparison, just due to reasonable expectations.)
I think my launch PS4 is dying, it randomly goes into sleep mode (sometimes just minutes after I turn it on) and it likes to randomly spit out discs (specially while playing).
I'm gonna have to check Gamestop today, their site says $250 trade in value for pro members, but I don't believe that lol.
In the end it might be that I buy my second PS4 this month, I guess I will have an impact on NPD for the first time in years!
I'm gonna have to check Gamestop today, their site says $250 trade in value for pro members, but I don't believe that lol.
In the end it might be that I buy my second PS4 this month, I guess I will have an impact on NPD for the first time in years!
panda-zebra
Banned
There are a few fixes for the disc-spitting. My launch ps4 did it on and off for a while, as very annoying back when I played Destiny and I'd be kicked out of multiplayer events. Some rubber feet, rather than the screw-twiddling, worked for mine. Auto sleep mode is not something I've ever encountered.
Thanks again for the infos.
I wanted to ask you if it was possible to check how the BO3 XB1 version performed against Halo 5 on that system. Would also be awesome if you can check how Battlefront and Fallout 4 are looking compared to Halo 5 (even if it's just preorders).
Yea the sleep mode thing is kinda rare but it has happened to me more than twice now, at least it never happens when I'm playing a game.
Can you link me how you fixed the auto eject thing? I've only tried the official Sony "fix".
AmaterasuOni
Banned
[PS4] 418k
[XB1] 407k
[3DS] 75k
[WIU] 62k
[XB1] 407k
[3DS] 75k
[WIU] 62k
They did the same thing with Destiny last year, I can't remember the impact it had on actual sales. And even like Destiny, Microsoft are using discreet advertising for Battlefront. They are really concerned with Sony's marketing deal.
November is a lock on PS4 for sure. October is interesting to speculate.
slavesnyder
Member
Always difficult to measure an impact if you don't know what would have happened if you had reacted differently.
Most people who state to know parallel realities are too self-confident. Or liars.
The pick-a-game during Destiny did not prevent the loss of the battle, but I am sure without it, it would have been far worse.
Expecting the same this time, too.
Also, I like these stealth marketing moves. They will not be game-changibg, but they are clever and a lifesign.
DECEMBER 2013
WW: 4,200,000
US: 2,000,000 ~ 48%
FEBRUARY 2014
WW: 6,000,000
US: 2,550,000 ~ 42%
MARCH 2014
WW: 7,000,000
US: 2,900,000 ~ 42%
AUGUST 2014
WW: 10,000,000
US: 4,000,000 ~ 40%
DECEMBER 2014
WW: 18,500,000
US: 6,700,000 ~ 36%
FEBRUARY 2015
WW: 20,200,000
US: 7,250,000 ~ 36%
RealityPales
Member
Holy shit. I forgot Tomb Raider existed. Is that being sent to die or what?
Dash_Riprock
Member
Seems once UC4 got delayed MS lost all interest in it.
razgriz417
Member
huh never saw it that way