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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

Fat4all

Banned
The TR bundle isn't coming to the largest retailer in the US and thus its impact in NPD will be negligible

Also the FO4 / Battlefront / Black Ops combo in November is going to be fucking crazy. So many people getting all 3

Is the largest retailer for gaming Walmart or Gamestop?
 

Elandyll

Banned
It just ended up in the worst case scenario. No Uncharted 4 to go up against and try to divert sales and lumped between massive third party titles coming the week before and the week after. This is all the while launching on the same day as another big third party title.

I'm not sure how this will end up not being disappointing for SE and MS.
SE? Sure, it's a possible bomb in the making.

For MS? They did everything to arrive at this situation really.

It was all geared (the deal) to counter Uncharted in a way, and backfired badly, but from the beginning they were visibly privileging Fallout 4, a non exclusive (TR only gets a limited release bundle, and not even in the UK, birthplace of Eidos) which ends up releasing on the very same day with a wide release bundle.

I hope the money they got was worth it, because as far as support goes for release so far, TR got shafted imo.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
I wonder if the backlash had a lot to do with it?

Not really. The thing is now MS has to spend hard marketing dollars for Tomb Raider if it wants to grab attention vs. the onslaught of ads for Fallout 4, Halo 5, Star Wars Battlefront and Black Ops 3. The initial goal was to hype up the Uncharted 4 vs. Tomb Raider drama and piggy back that console war to the bank. That's gone.
 

Boke1879

Member
Not really. The thing is that now MS has to hard marketing dollars for Tomb Raider if it wants to grab attention from the onslaught of ads for Fallout, Halo, Star Wars and Call of Duty. The initial goal was to hype up Uncharted 4 vs. Tomb Raider and piggy back that console war to the bank. That's gone.

Yea you're right
 

allan-bh

Member
Yeah, Microsoft managed the Tomb Raider exclusivity very badly, it's something that should be much more important for Xbox One.

Don't know if the moneyhat will be enough for S-E, but for Microsoft I think the result will not be good. The game should launch in 2016 with Uncharted 4. This simple fact would give more visibility.
 

Shin-chan

Member
It feels pretty bizarre. Like they went totally all in on competing with Uncharted 4 but were more shocked than the fans by the delay. The deal, in the way we see it now, really only makes sense as a limited attempt at providing an equivalent alternative to Uncharted (while also having Halo etc). Or Microsoft were just totally grasping at exclusive third party deals and didn't really know what to do with the one they got which has poor performance in their biggest market and good performance in markets they're irrelevant in. If they're not chasing Europe and they're not growing the TR brand in America and they're now not competing with Uncharted then what's the point of the deal. I don't think either MS or SE knows at this stage.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
It feels pretty bizarre. Like they went totally all in on competing with Uncharted 4 but were more shocked than the fans by the delay. The deal, in the way we see it now, really only makes sense as a limited attempt at providing an equivalent alternative to Uncharted (while also having Halo etc). Or Microsoft were just totally grasping at exclusive third party deals and didn't really know what to do with the one they got which has poor performance in their biggest market and good performance in markets they're irrelevant in. If they're not chasing Europe and they're not growing the TR brand in America and they're now not competing with Uncharted then what's the point of the deal. I don't think either MS or SE knows at this stage.

SE checks its bank account.

credit ---- $30,000,000 (Microsoft Corp.)

As for MS, they have the best Xbox line-up in history™*
*(without COD and Star Wars marketing rights and bragging rights).
 

Boke1879

Member
It feels pretty bizarre. Like they went totally all in on competing with Uncharted 4 but were more shocked than the fans by the delay. The deal, in the way we see it now, really only makes sense as a limited attempt at providing an equivalent alternative to Uncharted (while also having Halo etc). Or Microsoft were just totally grasping at exclusive third party deals and didn't really know what to do with the one they got which has poor performance in their biggest market and good performance in markets they're irrelevant in. If they're not chasing Europe and they're not growing the TR brand in America and they're now not competing with Uncharted then what's the point of the deal. I don't think either MS or SE knows at this stage.

Yup. It seems like the TR deal was an attempt to go right up against Uncharted.
 

Javin98

Banned
Amazon Monthly Update (Not Final)

PS4 got ahead of Halo!:

23) Uncharted PS4 Bundle
24) Halo XB1 Bundle
28) Star Wars LE PS4 Bundle (Doesn't Count)
40) TLOU PS4 Bundle
48) Destiny LE PS4 Bundle
49) CoD LE PS4 Bundle (Doesn't Count)
94) Gears XB1 Bundle

So, with one more Amazon Monthly Update missing, what do you guys think? PS4 win?
Well, I'm waiting for the final update to make my predictions and hopefully more insight from posters who work in other retailers and maybe even Microsoft's PR for Halo 5. But I'm seriously getting some April vibes from the monthly charts.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Halo 5 seems to be doing pretty bad if we're looking at the Twitch viewer numbers. Overwatch beta and Blade and Soul beta are beating it. And of course Hearthstone, DOTA2, LoL and CSGO.

Overwatch has been beating it since the launch though.

Halo 5 is at 17k and even Destiny is at 14k at the moment.

Twitch means nothing, the two biggest franchises in the world (GTA & Minecraft) never came close to the top, & those are 50+ selling games, Twitch leans towards PC and/or "hardcore" games.

Meanwhile, when Bloodborne launched it was getting more viewers than LoL & CS:GO, & we know that Halo is ~3 times bigger than Soulsborne.
 

Tubie

Member
Amazon Monthly Update (Not Final)

PS4 got ahead of Halo!:

23) Uncharted PS4 Bundle
24) Halo XB1 Bundle
28) Star Wars LE PS4 Bundle (Doesn't Count)
40) TLOU PS4 Bundle
48) Destiny LE PS4 Bundle
49) CoD LE PS4 Bundle (Doesn't Count)
94) Gears XB1 Bundle

So, with one more Amazon Monthly Update missing, what do you guys think? PS4 win?

Holy shit, is it happening? It can't be happening.
 
Amazon Monthly Update (Not Final)

PS4 got ahead of Halo!:

23) Uncharted PS4 Bundle
24) Halo XB1 Bundle
28) Star Wars LE PS4 Bundle (Doesn't Count)
40) TLOU PS4 Bundle
48) Destiny LE PS4 Bundle
49) CoD LE PS4 Bundle (Doesn't Count)
94) Gears XB1 Bundle

So, with one more Amazon Monthly Update missing, what do you guys think? PS4 win?

I think this means that Halo 4 and the MCC damaged the brand more than anyone could have imagined.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
I think H5 will do the job for MS this month, did anyone check if there is a correlation between Amazon stats and monthly NPD? People like to use it and I wonder how telling is it.

About TR, why people are assuming FO4 crowd and TR are the same? I think TR can sell pretty well.

I don't think MS had the US market in mind when they made that deal, the reboot didn't do great numbers on NPD, but it did great in Europe according to Gfk. It would be stupid if MS now expects the franchise to suddenly do well in the US, especially when it's releasing within 3 games that are far more US-centric (CoD, BF, Halo)
 

Boke1879

Member
I think this means that Halo 4 and the MCC damaged the brand more than anyone could have imagined.

It doesn't mean anything yet. We still don't know how well it's selling at other retailers. But I was always of the mindset that Halo 5 would be a huge software mover but I'm interested to see how much hardware it moves.

It won't do what halo 3 did for the 360 but we'll see.

And I'd say it much more about competition than a tarnished brand. You have COD which has become huge.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
One thing is for sure.. MS won't make another deal like that for the next TR, or any 3rd party imo.

I wouldn't be so sure about that, especially since Sony just moneyhatted SF5, they're gonna need to moneyhat more games to compete, they just need to make better decisions regarding that, TR will never be big on Xbox, it's always been a Playstation/PC franchise, perhaps they should have moneyhatted Mass Effect instead, which is much more likely to do well in the US.
 

Chobel

Member
Yeah, Microsoft managed the Tomb Raider exclusivity very badly, it's something that should be much more important for Xbox One.

Don't know if the moneyhat will be enough for S-E, but for Microsoft I think the result will not be good. The game should launch in 2016 with Uncharted 4. This simple fact would give more visibility.

You assume MS actually spent a lot of money for this deal, however usually in these deals you don't give big upfront cash. Most of the money comes from marketing and less platform holder royalties. So all MS has to do is spend only small amount of money on TR2 marketing and they'll be OK.
 

hawk2025

Member
???

The game sold well and the bundle is $500.

The conclusions from Amazon stats have been really strange this month IMO. Too many bundles and split sales.

I don't understand the guy's comment either, but we really don't know how well it sold yet, and especially which reference point should be used to define "well".

Is the comparison relative to previous entries, or other games in October? What woulf be defined as selling well in your opinion?
 

Fat4all

Banned
The fact that MS hasn't boasted about day 1 sales yet should be raising a few eyebrows...

That's not necessarily true. Developers usually wait a week these days, and I'm sure they'll talk about day-one sales next Tuesday as well (or at the very least, whatever statistic sounds most impressive).
 

Three

Member
The fact that MS hasn't boasted about day 1 sales yet should be raising a few eyebrows...

The game will be a big seller. Perhaps just not as big as past games. People will claim it is a flop because it sold considerably less than past installments but will likely be financially successful and a big seller. Much like GT6.
 

Stanng243

Member
I wouldn't be so sure about that, especially since Sony just moneyhatted SF5, they're gonna need to moneyhat more games to compete, they just need to make better decisions regarding that, TR will never be big on Xbox, it's always been a Playstation/PC franchise, perhaps they should have moneyhatted Mass Effect instead, which is much more likely to do well in the US.
I believe they tried to money hat mass effect and got turned down. If I remember correctly.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
I don't understand the guy's comment either, but we really don't know how well it sold yet, and especially which reference point should be used to define "well".

Is the comparison relative to previous entries, or other games in October? What woulf be defined as selling well in your opinion?

Oh no -- I was simply commenting on the fact that he used the bundle's Amazon position to somehow show that Halo 5 was greatly impacted by 4 and MCC when yet Halo 5 is a top selling game on the same exact list he was commenting on. Just didn't make sense to me.
 

Fat4all

Banned
300k or less = flop.

350K - 500k OK.

600K> pretty good.

1m - great.

1.5m

tumblr_mziti4INvU1tq9bh9o1_400.png
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
I think this means that Halo 4 and the MCC damaged the brand more than anyone could have imagined.

That Halo 5 bundle is a freaking $500 bucks. Personally I think MS missed the boat here. Should of been priced at $349 or $399.99.

I still think Amazon on average is more skewed towards PS4 than Xbox. There has been months where the PS4 beats the Xbox on Amazon yet the Xbox One sells more for the month (namely April if I recall?). I think when it comes to retail, in places like Target and Walmart, the Xbox One does very well. I definitely think it will be close, as in a 100k difference max at best.


2m - excellent.

2.5m - orgasmic!
 
That Halo 5 bundle is a freaking $500 bucks. Personally I think MS missed the boat here. Should of been priced at $349 or $399.99.

I still think Amazon on average is more skewed towards PS4 than Xbox. There has been months where the PS4 beats the Xbox on Amazon yet the Xbox One sells more for the month (namely April if I recall?). I think when it comes to retail, in places like Target and Walmart, the Xbox One does very well. I definitely think it will be close, as in a 100k difference max at best.



2m - excellent.

2.5m - orgasmic!

I may be wrong but im pretty there were only 2 months when amazon was wrong

Pretty decent track record
 

Fat4all

Banned
That Halo 5 bundle is a freaking $500 bucks. Personally I think MS missed the boat here. Should of been priced at $349 or $399.99.

I still think Amazon on average is more skewed towards PS4 than Xbox. There has been months where the PS4 beats the Xbox on Amazon yet the Xbox One sells more for the month. I think when it comes to retail, places like Target, Xbox does very well. I definitely think it will be close, as in a 100k difference max at best.

I think it's obvious that with the $500 bundle they were looking for guaranteed sales. They know how many people are willing to pay for it, and probably manufactured only a little more than that number. It's a very profitable bundle for them.

A lot of people would of liked a lower price Halo console bundle, but I feel like MS made a smart choice here, too. Why release a $350 Halo bundle when you can instead just let people buy any of the other bundles, say the Gears bundle, and the game itself? That's more profits for MS, plus it probably bolsters add-on purchases for things like MS points, Live Gold, extra controller, because why not get one if you're getting Gears anyways?
 
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