Support NeoGAF

[Bits N Pieces]

A can smell a big drop for Gears 4.

Here's hoping, eh.....


lol

 

[Shin-chan]

A can smell a big drop for Gears 4.

Certainly not from Judgement? I don't see it doing under 100K but I think it might find it hard to beat 200K due to various factors, amongst them brand fatigue, the lack of interest in linear shooter campaigns on Xbox (regardless of multiplayer) and the fact that even Halo underperformed this gen.

We also don't know if The Coalition are any good yet either. The game might be shit, in which case 200K would be good for the title.

 

[Bruno MB]

Gen 7 last mainline entry:

[Week 45, 2012] HALO 4 (MICROSOFT) - 336,000 / NEW
[Week 38, 2011] GEARS OF WAR 3 (MICROSOFT) - 323,000 / NEW

Remake 1st chapter:

[Week 46, 2011] HALO: COMBAT EVOLVED ANNIVERSARY - 48,000 / NEW
[Week 35, 2015] GEARS OF WAR: ULTIMATE EDITION (MICROSOFT) ~ 40,000 / NEW

Gen 8 main entry:

[Week 44, 2015] HALO 5: GUARDIANS (MICROSOFT) - 150,000 / NEW
[Week 41, 2016] GEARS OF WAR 4 (MICROSOFT) - ?

 

[SEGAvangelist]

I'll be really surprised if somehow ReCore somehow managed to get legs without bundling: Shit ton of technical issues, bad reviews and more importantly being a short SP only game should make good legging almost impossible.

It's definitely not short. Took me 24 hours without even doing all the side stuff.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

I am expecting 100-150k for Gears 4.

 

[Javin98]

Gen 7 last mainline entry:

[Week 45, 2012] HALO 4 (MICROSOFT) - 336,000 / NEW
[Week 38, 2011] GEARS OF WAR 3 (MICROSOFT) - 323,000 / NEW

Remake 1st chapter:

[Week 46, 2011] HALO: COMBAT EVOLVED ANNIVERSARY - 48,000 / NEW
[Week 35, 2015] GEARS OF WAR: ULTIMATE EDITION (MICROSOFT) ~ 40,000 / NEW

Gen 8 main entry:

[Week 44, 2015] HALO 5: GUARDIANS (MICROSOFT) - 150,000 / NEW
[Week 41, 2016] GEARS OF WAR 4 (MICROSOFT) - ?

Any chance you can post the Uncharted version of this?

I am expecting 100-150k for Gears 4.

That sounds low? If it does end up around that ballpark, is it unreasonable to be worried about Microsoft's first party titles?

 

[Chobel]

It's definitely not short. Took me 24 hours without even doing all the side stuff.

Nothing against it, just going with what I read in reviews.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

That sounds low? If it does end up around that ballpark, is it unreasonable to be worried about Microsoft's first party titles?

I am basing my numbers on the performance of Halo 5.

 

[Primethius]

Any chance you can post the Uncharted version of this?


That sounds low? If it does end up around that ballpark, is it unreasonable to be worried about Microsoft's first party titles?

You should be worried about MS first party titles regardless. They have very few success' this gen.

Gears is shaping up just like Halo. I see a lot of excitement for it with Gears fans but muted in much of the way Halo's was. But let's see how the marketing shapes up, though I'm not entirely confident in MS's ability to replicate the success of the OG games.

 

[Shin-chan]

The marketing for Halo always completely eclipsed everything else as well. Even with Halo 5. I haven't seen that kind of push for Gears at all and its out in a few weeks.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Gears of War 4 should be about Halo level or most likely a bit lower so yes, maybe not 100-150K, but i think a 120-150K range seem more likely.

 

[Javin98]

You should be worried about MS first party titles regardless. They have very few success' this gen.

Gears is shaping up just like Halo. I see a lot of excitement for it with Gears fans but muted in much of the way Halo's was. But let's see how the marketing shapes up, though I'm not entirely confident in MS's ability to replicate the success of the OG games.

Agreed. Based on GAF alone, Gears 4 just doesn't seem to be generating much hype. Not sure about this E3, but last year's E3 showing was pretty mixed IIRC. Doesn't the game released in just a little over a month? Shouldn't marketing ramp up around now? Also, it's releasing in the same month as Battlefield 1 and Titanfall 2. Can't see the competition going well in favor of Gears.

All the new IP's from Microsoft this gen have also been performed poorly. I wonder if they are planning a next gen, what their first party output will look like. People will no doubt get bored of Gears, Halo and Forza eventually.

I am basing my numbers on the performance of Halo 5.

I can see that, but Gears didn't have a remaster collection that was poorly received. Of course you may be right, but 100K-150K for the sequel to Microsoft's second biggest IP is shocking.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Keep going, UC4.

 

[Guymelef]

Certainly not from Judgement? I don't see it doing under 100K but I think it might find it hard to beat 200K due to various factors, amongst them brand fatigue, the lack of interest in linear shooter campaigns on Xbox (regardless of multiplayer) and the fact that even Halo underperformed this gen.

We also don't know if The Coalition are any good yet either. The game might be shit, in which case 200K would be good for the title.

I mean 3 to 4 numbers.

 

[Chobel]

That sounds low? If it does end up around that ballpark, is it unreasonable to be worried about Microsoft's first party titles?

Not really, all MS franchises suffered this gen, so we shouldn't expect the old huge numbers for Gears 4.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Any chance you can post the Uncharted version of this?

First week sales

Uncharted 2 - 84,000
Uncharted 3 - 116,000
Uncharted 4 - 192,000

 

[Primethius]

The marketing for Halo always completely eclipsed everything else as well. Even with Halo 5. I haven't seen that kind of push for Gears at all and its out in a few weeks.

I found Halo 5's marketing extremely poor, just personally. It was a mainline sequel to Halo 4, widely considered to be a terrible Halo game by the fanbase. Yet the way they marketed the game was sort of like nothing had changed and they had nothing to prove.

It was marketing that essentially relied on Halo being a big name, rather then making and ensuring Halo was the big name.

Agreed. Based on GAF alone, Gears 4 just doesn't seem to be generating much hype. Not sure about this E3, but last year's E3 showing was pretty mixed IIRC. Doesn't the game released in just a little over a month? Shouldn't marketing ramp up around now? Also, it's releasing in the same month as Battlefield 1 and Titanfall 2. Can't see the competition going well in favor of Gears.

All the new IP's from Microsoft this gen have also been performed poorly. I wonder if they are planning a next gen, what their first party output will look like. People will no doubt get bored of Gears, Halo and Forza eventually.


I can see that, but Gears didn't have a remaster collection that was poorly received. Of course you may be right, but 100K-150K for the sequel to Microsoft's second biggest IP is shocking.

Gears didn't have a poor remaster collection but it also didn't have it's equivalent of Halo 4, a mainline title that was received extremely poorly.

 

[Javin98]

Not really, all MS franchises suffered this gen, so we shouldn't expect the old huge numbers for Gears 4.

Yep, true. But like I said, pretty shocking to see the sequels of once mighty franchises selling less than half of their predecessors.

First week sales

Uncharted 2 - 84,000
Uncharted 3 - 116,000
Uncharted 4 - 192,000

Thanks for this, but I was asking for the LTD comparisons.

Gears didn't have a poor remaster collection but it also didn't have it's equivalent of Halo 4, a mainline title that was received extremely poorly.

Yep, which is why I was shocked to see that people are predicting it to sell less than half of the previous mainline entry. But then again, you guys have a good point and Microsoft exclusives have indeed been doing relatively poorly this gen.

 

[wapplew]

I think Gears 4 first week will be higher than Halo 5 base on Xbox one install base higher than last year.

 

[Shin-chan]

I found Halo 5's marketing extremely poor, just personally. It was a mainline sequel to Halo 4, widely considered to be a terrible Halo game by the fanbase. Yet the way they marketed the game was sort of like nothing had changed and they had nothing to prove.

It was marketing that essentially relied on Halo being a big name, rather then making and ensuring Halo was the big name.



Gears didn't have a poor remaster collection but it also didn't have it's equivalent of Halo 4, a mainline title that was received extremely poorly.

I didn't mean necessarily the quality of the marketing, but the quantity and how in your face it is. You couldn't watch a TV show or YouTube video or Twitch stream without seeing Locke standing over a defeated Chief last year for like 3 months before launch.

I don't even know what this new Gears is about. Only that it's set during the night time and doesn't look that great the marketing has been nonexistent in comparison, which is weird for their tentpole release of FY2016.

 

[Hydrargyrus]

What are the numbers for reCore?

 

[OléGunner]

If Gears can do 150k+ that's a win in my book considering how MS exclusives haven't set the world on fire in UK all that much.

 

[AnthonypUK]

What are the numbers for reCore?

5-6k-ish.

 

[Nightengale]

It's hard to gauge where Gears is at right now in terms of metrics of interest and excitement.

With the exception of the 16mil views Tomorrow trailer, Gears4 related content has not exactly been highly exciting stuff with a lot of attention or traction in terms of views or engagement. On YT, view count for E3 demos, Horde reveal, etc has been middling at best.

On the other hand, the Behind the Scenes and Gears Ink has over 1mil views, so what the heck is up with that?

Amazon US Sep monthly and 2016 yearly also hasn't exactly painted a very positive picture for Gears 4 pre-orders. Yes, software is not properly reflected for Amazon, but Gears is still a core gamer game that I would imagine tracks highly at places like Amazon. Gears is hugely popular with a large base that aren't necessarily Amazon-audience, but it should still be higher than it is.

All the easily accessible numbers seem to suggest purchasing interest for Gears 4 right now isn't high. But ultimately it's really hard to tell just based off these metrics.

Let's see if the Launch trailer racks up high view counts.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

I can see God of War being the bigger franchise now. But both, GoW or Gears 4 haven't released yet, so I might be dead wrong.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

If gears does Halo numbers that would be good for MS .
Still MS has a very big problem .
There IPs are selling less and they don't have any new ones that selling good.
Guess we will have to see if PC will help them get back some sales.

 

[pixellated_man]

I'm sorry but I just imagine movie like montage from 90's where you go around town, small kids gather around you and ask you about UC4, old sheepfarmer asks about Sully's moustaches and lady in store is interested on Nate lovelife.

Lol

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Thanks for this, but I was asking for the LTD comparisons.

You said the "Uncharted version of this", all numbers Bruno posted for Gears and Halo were first week.

 

[Slayven]

go NMS go!

 

[Javin98]

You said the "Uncharted version of this", all numbers Bruno posted for Gears and Halo were first week.

Oh, shit, my bad. Haha, I don't even know what I want. Haha! Anyway, I suppose I wanted the LTD figures as well.

 

[Kill3r7]

If Gears can do 150k+ that's a win in my book considering how MS exclusives haven't set the world on fire in UK all that much.

Agreed, 150k would be a really good number for Gears 4. The franchise is not at its peak anymore. My best guess is that it will be somewhere between 100k-120k.

 

[Welfare]

I think >130k debut for Gears would be good. Not as "strong" as Halo 5 but still a really good opening in the current environment of first party titles on Xbox One.

 

[Shin-chan]

Some incredibly "lowered expectations" here. I guess Halo 5s poor performance has really impacted things.

There's no way, before that, that people would consider a drop of over 50% between mainline entries "good".

 

[small44]

SInce PES can't compete with Fifa I think it would be a great idea to make in a PSVita exclusive IP because they is no competition there.

 

[freefornow]

Some incredibly "lowered expectations" here. I guess Halo 5s poor performance has really impacted things.

Install base?

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Install base?

Halo 3 sold 370,000 and the install base was super low............

 

[chaosmaster(1)]

Looking at the performance of xbox one exclusives this gen and the decline of halo with halo 5 which looks to have had a marketing budget that dwarfs gears 4. I think gears 4 will do less than 200k and more close to halo 5 performance

 

[DeadOnions]

Halo 3 sold 370,000 and the install base was super low............

Yeah the install base argument is a non starter. I personally expect it to do 150k though.

 

[Mase Gumble]

SInce PES can't compete with Fifa I think it would be a great idea to make in a PSVita exclusive IP because they is no competition there.

Assuming this is a joke right?

 

[viHuGi]

SInce PES can't compete with Fifa I think it would be a great idea to make in a PSVita exclusive IP because they is no competition there.

Lmao.

 

[Nightengale]

Install base argument is flawed when Titanfall can sell Halo 5 numbers almost 2 years earlier or when Nintendo games do ridiculous sales on the lol dead platform WiiU.

If a game is desirable to the audience, there are enough of an install base right now for games to match sales of their predecessor heights of higher install base.

 

[Alo0oy]

PES is not indicative of how XB1 is performing at all in my opinion. If a game is made in Japan it gets a percentage bump on Playstation just for the sole purpose of being made in Japan. Even if the game looks as Western as possible (see Bayonetta & Resident Evil last gen), it's just a weird unexplainable quirk.

I think the ratio is still around 55/45.

 

[Welfare]

Hasn't PES always leaned significantly to PS? Also did the PS4 slim come out this week?

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I never expected DQ to sell in the UK but that's a great debut compared to past games, no?

Yo-kai Watch slaying the 🌍 .

 

[Rymuth]

Install base argument is flawed when Titanfall can sell Halo 5 numbers almost 2 years earlier or when Nintendo games do ridiculous sales on the lol dead platform WiiU.

Correct - otherwise, GT6 or Judgment would've outsold their predecessors, due to the size of the install base alone.

 

[Obliterator]

If Gears 4 performs at 150k I would consider that an absolute catastrophe

 

[Primethius]

If Gears 4 performs at 150k I would consider that an absolute catastrophe

It's starting to look like that may end up being the high end unless MS starts to go crazy with the marketing soon (and how it reviews).

 

[Lagspike_exe]

If Gears 4 performs at 150k I would consider that an absolute catastrophe

MS flagship franchises are on a downward trajectory since late 360 era. Other than significant reboots, trend likely won't stop. It'll stabilize in the best scenario. Product relaunches are a common thing in business. Simply, there's a point in product's lifecycle when it becomes stale and needs a refresh.

Sony has similar issue with GoW and GT but both seem to be going the reboot route (GoW especially so). On the other hand, Sony has the luxury of experimenting because even if both bomb, they can still rely on 3rd parties to prop them up since they're the lead console.

MS needs blockbuster to generate momentum.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Only because a terrible result is expect, this doesn't change is a terrible result.

I personally expect Geras to do a bit over 125k, even if it sells 150k first that's still a terrible result for the Gears series.

So yes, it's sad to say, i love Gears, but it's just going to flop...

 

[Nirolak]

While the game has very positive previews, I'm not convinced a (large) market still exists for a traditional third person shooter.

I think I would have doubled down even harder on the MP than they seemed to do.