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RoadtoVR: John Carmack Has Doubts About PSVR 2’s Chance for Success

Apple's headset will be WAAY too expensive.

Depends on how true the price leaks are, but then again, it also depends on whether Apple will allow carriers to carry it for installments, or offer their own across non-carriers as well like Bestbuy, Apple Store etc.

It all comes down to how many boxes apples checks, and how good their specs are. If they are 3-5 years ahead of the game then while I don't see 100 million headsets sold, i think beating Quest 2's shipments would be possible. Same with Samsung which will most likely have the cheaper solution, but is no fool to demographics and market data.

And in that Morning Consult data, I've realized that we are going to have a mix of different people wanting different headsets for different reasons. Most of those people aren't the same people Sony is targeting for PSVR2.

Sony is loading their launch with ports and interesting ads targeting the same people APPLE, HTC (low-end) and Quest are targeting to bring them in, along with PSVR1 and PS5 enthusiasts, and they are trying to grab some of the high end by offering a lower price, but premium specs that may entice someone to avoid that $1000+ PSVR headset.

Sony can't sell a lot of PSVR2's without doing that, they are using the same strategy x2 they used for the PSVR1, it's all in the ads so far, the interviews, and in the announcements.

Sony is fully aware they need certain demographics for their VR to sell which is why their launch line up is the way it is, as well as their launch window.

Are you also going into the price of the TV that we'll need to setup the PSVR2 on?

This line is used to defend the cost to entry, but it's realistically a big barrier.

Many consumers only want a headset that have some interest in VR, that does alienate a lot of potential customers. That's not something they can get away with like they "partially" did with PSVR1 because everything was new and people were trying multiple things (and PSVR1 was cheaper because PS4 had a price cut for it), the market died until ONE headset came with what they were looking for, now there needs to be that happening again a third time.

The question is, how much interest can Sony get from PS5 owners to buy PSVR2 to cover that gap?
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Many consumers only want a headset that have some interest in VR, that does alienate a lot of potential customers. That's not something they can get away with like they "partially" did with PSVR1 because everything was new and people were trying multiple things (and PSVR1 was cheaper because PS4 had a price cut for it), the market died until ONE headset came with what they were looking for, now there needs to be that happening again a third time.

The question is, how much interest can Sony get from PS5 owners to buy PSVR2 to cover that gap?

I can promise you the final question is Sony's only worry. They couldn't care less about the people that only want a headset.
 
I can promise you the final question is Sony's only worry. They couldn't care less about the people that only want a headset.

Problem is many PS5 owners who liked VR may want wireless as has been discussed before, or may also have a Quest.

The question is how much of the PS5 base can they get that won't care? They can't get ten million just on that without casuals, people who want wireless, and related groups. But, what they get from PS5 owners who don't care about standalone or don't also have Quests etc, that's going to determine how successful it is If they can get 3 million sales elsewhere and only 1 million core PS5 owners, or less of either, that would be bad. If they can get 5 million PS5 owners, that means if they don't get many of other groups they can make the minimum 6-7 million depending on how many they can attract to PSVR2.

They need a good base to jump off of as they target other group outside the PS5.
 

Crayon

Member
I also think it's crazy that they have to target the headset outside of people who would buy a ps5 anyway. It really makes no sense. They can get off their ~3 million in the first year with that base. ("their 3 million", assuming that's roundabout what they are trying for.
 

Crayon

Member
Most of the launch games aren't native.

Of course Sony is targeting the PS5 owners, or would be owners, but it's also clear they are going for a multi-audience approach as well.

Most aren't native?? That is a reach and a half. Apply that to xbox and ps5. Practically no games are "native".
 

nowhat

Member
Most of the launch games aren't native.
I guess that depends on your definition of "native".

Native, as in exclusive? At first, probably not apart from a few outliers (I'm not sure if something like GT7 counts as it's not a VR-only release). Most probably will be ports.

But native, as in particularly ported for and supporting features of PSVR 2, by the looks of it, yes. Check out this developer interview:



The fact that eye tracking is not only for foveated rendering but also for targeting seems like a game changer for me.

(I also need some justification for placing my preorder, but in my defense, I haven't bought a new toy in ages)
 
Let's take a step back. What precisley the fuck do you mean by native and why does it matter?

Did you read the posts earlier in the conversation?

I guess that depends on your definition of "native".

Native, as in exclusive? At first, probably not apart from a few outliers (I'm not sure if something like GT7 counts as it's not a VR-only release). Most probably will be ports.

But native, as in particularly ported for and supporting features of PSVR 2, by the looks of it, yes. Check out this developer interview:

The fact that eye tracking is not only for foveated rendering but also for targeting seems like a game changer for me.

(I also need some justification for placing my preorder, but in my defense, I haven't bought a new toy in ages)

Ok, this doesn't change anything though, this is an example of an exception. But most PSVR2 games announced aren't native. There are native games on it, but not that many.

The point is, Sony is clearly aiming to get more than just PS5 users interested at the jump. Sony wants PSVR2 to hit a homerun.
 

nowhat

Member
There are native games on it, but not that many.
...how would you know? PSVR games are not compatible with PSVR 2. It's not a matter of a simple recompile. So how do you know that the existing titles ported to PSVR 2 don't use those features?

The review embargo ends in like a day or so. So how about we wait for the reviews before conclusions? Just a thought.
 
...how would you know?

We have the launch lineup?

The review embargo has nothing to do with what devs have already showing us in articles and videos for many of the games launching with the headset.

The headset will however, launch with many games, so as I said, there will be native games amongst the crowd.

Hopefully the combination of both, will help PSVR 2 have a great launch month. So we can see Sony pick up support.
 
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nowhat

Member
We have the launch lineup?
Yes, and do you know what has been done to said launch lineup? Because as said (and if you'd bothered to watch the video I linked to you'd understand this better), it's not a matter of a simple recompile. Changes have to be made to accommodate both the headset and controllers. So in the process, much may have changed.

All I'm saying is, we'll be much wiser after the real review embargo ends tomorrow.
 
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nowhat

Member
Which I never argued.
But I'm not sure what constitutes your definition of "native" then.

Anyway. It's already the 15th in my timezone, so we'll probably be more equipped for this discussion within the next 24 hours, let us continue after the reviews.
 

Mahavastu

Member
Ok, this doesn't change anything though, this is an example of an exception. But most PSVR2 games announced aren't native. There are native games on it, but not that many.
Not sure what you mean with "native". You need a native PS5 game to support the PSVR2, so every PSVR2 games is "native".

If you mean "PSVR2 exclusive": why does that matter? You do not buy a Playstation ONLY for Playstation exclusive titles, but because you can be confident to also get tons of 3rd party games in addition to the exclusives.
Of course most of the games are also on other platforms. But how many people do really have several other headsets lying around? Those things are not cheap.
Most gamers will have one VR headset and only replace it after some years, when something really MUCH better arrives. So for most PSVR2 owners it is important that pretty much all relevant games are also playable on that system, since this is the place they will play it. They could not care less if it is also available on other systems in a not that much better quality.

I think a lot of people overcomplicate things: Some early adaptors will buy the PSVR2 just for what is offered at launch. Then everything will depend on if the PSVR2 delivers, the quality of the experience and the number and the quality of the games in the long run.
What I saw in the first reaction videos the PSVR2 seems to be a great piece of tech, and some of the games (e.g. Horizon, GT7, Kayak, Village) will be mind blowing for many of us, convincing more buyers.
One youtube video lists 93 already announced PSVR2 games, so the quantity and quality in the beginning is there. Whats coming after that we will have to wait and see. From what I understood Playstation made it easier to port stuff from PC or add a VR mode to existing games, so I am optimistic.
Just imagine some Sony 1st party games like Spiderman, GoW, Returnal or many more also playable in VR. As I know Sony they will do that for some games...
 
At a $500 price point on top of the $399 - $499 price of the PS5 is guranteed niche sales. Mainstream is not about to drop $1K to experience VR.
 

Loxus

Member
At a $500 price point on top of the $399 - $499 price of the PS5 is guranteed niche sales. Mainstream is not about to drop $1K to experience VR.
Weren't people dropping $1000+ on consoles at the beginning of the generation? During a pandemic no less.

People spend hundreds of dollars on driving wheels, controllers, headphones, surround sound and TVs but all of a sudden $500 for a VR headset which is cheap compared to other VR headsets with the features it has is a problem?
 
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