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RoadtoVR: John Carmack Has Doubts About PSVR 2’s Chance for Success

R6Rider

Gold Member
Welcome to the world of software. A better way to estimate the health of a system is to look at tie ratios. The $1.5B is from the summer and so the userbase was probably at 15-18M then. Considering an ASP of $20, we can assume that 75M units of software have been sold on the Quest 2 store.

75M units / 15-18M = Tie ratio of 4.16-5 games per unit

That's a pretty healthy tie ratio and in-line with other portable consoles. Almost the same tie ratio as the Gameboy or 3DS. Here's a comparison with Nintendo devices.

y2N8Nnh.png
You're assuming the entire revenue is from software sales. That's not how that works.

And could you have picked an uglier chart?
 
There has been numerous thread here how you can build a PC that is better than Series X (stronger than PS5) for the same price or possibly less than $500.

But for the VR pricing argument this has for some reason been forgotten.
 

DaGwaphics

Member
There has been numerous thread here how you can build a PC that is better than Series X (stronger than PS5) for the same price or possibly less than $500.

But for the VR pricing argument this has for some reason been forgotten.

I don't see how you build a PC on par with the XSX/PS5 with new parts at $500. A consistently comparable GPU still sets you back too much (some of the comparable GPUs are too bandwidth limited in some situations to hold up, etc.). I've been considering doing a $500 overhaul on my old gaming PC and just the MB, CPU and GPU are in that range (and that's reusing the existing storage, memory, case, and PSU).
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
If Sony had some kind of step down model like Series S that would come bundled with VR2, that would probably help a lot with sales.

It'll be the worse idea ever for Sony!

I wouldn't put a specific number on it, I'd look at VR gaming as a whole and judge based on the VR industry's ability to sustain AAA development in a profitable way. Once it's possible to put enough financial backing into the software to create top-tier content and do that reliably at profit, I'd say it might be on its way (the whole VR segment seems to be a huge money sink at the moment though).

See this isn't really fair then. Because you "could" if you wanted just keep moving the goalpost going forward. And keep saying it's niche and not mainstream by this post.

People can't see past their hate of Meta to know that Quest is the only game in town when it comes to VR. All the other platforms are way too niche to support developers. PSVR took 5 years and multiple holiday sales just to get to 5M. Wired VR is never going to be heavily supported.

You're honestly insane dude. Do you work for Facebook or something?
 

Baki

Member
You're assuming the entire revenue is from software sales. That's not how that works.

And could you have picked an uglier chart?
The $1.5B is 100% software revenue.

It'll be the worse idea ever for Sony!



See this isn't really fair then. Because you "could" if you wanted just keep moving the goalpost going forward. And keep saying it's niche and not mainstream by this post.



You're honestly insane dude. Do you work for Facebook or something?

LOL. Just speaking facts friend. I would love for Sony to release a Quest competitor because I don't like the idea of Quest being the only game in town but unfortunately Sony isn't willing to take that kind of financial risk. I don't blame them. It's a shame, VR is definitely the future.
 
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Crayon

Member
I don't see how you build a PC on par with the XSX/PS5 with new parts at $500. A consistently comparable GPU still sets you back too much (some of the comparable GPUs are too bandwidth limited in some situations to hold up, etc.). I've been considering doing a $500 overhaul on my old gaming PC and just the MB, CPU and GPU are in that range (and that's reusing the existing storage, memory, case, and PSU).

Same. Someone in one of these threads specced out a decent vr pc that should still be behind (for vr without the benefit of foveated rendering) a ps5 and it was over $1000 usd. I thought the whole thing was still a good deal and a pc I would build, but $500 sounds like an exageration. Much less a pc that is going to play a game that looks like horizon in vr. Not to mention a headset that would be commparable.
 
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Baki

Member
Same. Someone in one of these threads specced out a decent vr pc that should still be behind (for vr without the benefit of foveated rendering) a ps5 and it was over $1000 usd. I thought the whole thing was still a good deal and a pc I would build, but $500 sounds like an exageration. Much less a pc that is going to play a game that looks like horizon in vr. Not to mention a headset that would be commparable.

Agreed. You're not going to build a PC that can perform like a PS5 on $500. PS5 benefits from an SOP design that allows it to pack a punch when compared to the equivalent spec on PC.
 
$600 and what games? I agree this thing is DoA. And I already have a PS5.

With that $600 I would buy an Xbox before getting a PSVR. The thing needs to be like $350 and even then I don't know that I'd jump on it.
 
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Gamerguy84

Member
Psvr 1 was good for uts time but not good enough. It never had a killer app. Good enough for me I enjoyed it and it's hooked up still.

PSVR does have what should be 3 killer apps out of the gate. Word of mouth is going to sell this. I don't mean 50% ownership but an increase from 1.

It would sell more if Sony woukd take a bigger hit and sell it for $300.

This is a premium device. It's specs are great. Foveated rendering is perfect for VR.

This is going to be bigger and better than psvr1.
 

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
You'll need some sort of Usb c to DP adapter.

You're going to make a big mistake with that wire. As someone with a wire, don't do it.
The PSVR2 is USB C only.
Ive got native USB C support on my motherboard, I wont need an adapter so Im totally fine with a long USB cable.
Its tech is too good to pass up at that price......if it works on PC.
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
My god the irony.

Hi Fi rush alone is worth the price of an xbox. Then there's all the other games coming this year and game pass so no need to be cute.

I'd legit buy a psvr2 for gran turismo if it was cheaper but with no real commitment to any future releases from Sony and a line up of games that are literally ancient software I own across meta store and steam what is the point?

If they made it officially PC compatible I'd grab it to replace my aging Rift S but man, it feels like they really half assed this launch.
 

Crayon

Member
Hi Fi rush alone is worth the price of an xbox. Then there's all the other games coming this year and game pass so no need to be cute.

I'd legit buy a psvr2 for gran turismo if it was cheaper but with no real commitment to any future releases from Sony and a line up of games that are literally ancient software I own across meta store and steam what is the point?

If they made it officially PC compatible I'd grab it to replace my aging Rift S but man, it feels like they really half assed this launch.

Hifi rush is worth the price alone,
Especially with all the other games. Game pass.

I'd buy a psvr2 if was cheaper, but if it was I wouldn't because I don't know about unannounced games.

I'd get it if it was PC compatible but if it was I wouldn't because the launch is half assed.

I wanted to respond but that was hard enough just to parse out.
 

RJMacready73

Simps for Amouranth
I don't think Sony has poured the money it has into VR for them to go half in, sure the PSVR2 is one expensive peripheral in a niche category but isn't that their whole ethos with gaming and tech, they want to offer variety and with the tech built into this thing compared to the PC competition it's extreme value for money and built for the long term life of the console, I for one applaud them offering me choice
 

K2D

Banned
Well, yeah. It requires a 500-dollar console and a 500+ dollar VR set.

That's a lot of money for a gimmick experience.
The perception of VR as a mere gimmick and being limited to niche applications will be challenged by its demonstrated value.

While I cannot personally vouch for, for instance the much acclaimed Half-Life: Alyx, my experience with Skyrim VR completely NEGATES the notion of VR being mere gimmickry.

In my opinion, it represents the optimal method of playing first-person RPG games, with the conventional, 'flat' experience likely to be considered inferior in comparison.

The only real threats for VR in the long run is the overall health of the industry (threatened by consolidation and stagnation) and the financial market. In the short term; surviving the hardware's need to metamorph into something that is not as obtrusive to user experience as the first generations were.
 

mdkirby

Member
for it to stand a chance of being successful I think it needs to also be PC and Mac compatible. Which given PlayStation's movement into the PC gaming space it would make even more sense now than before.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Hifi rush is worth the price alone,
Especially with all the other games. Game pass.

I'd buy a psvr2 if was cheaper, but if it was I wouldn't because I don't know about unannounced games.

I'd get it if it was PC compatible but if it was I wouldn't because the launch is half assed.

I wanted to respond but that was hard enough just to parse out.

It's funny seeing people who don't want a VR device, talk about how PSVR2 won't be successful. Yet many of them have talked about buying a Steam Deck or want one. That device sold like 1 million units in 9 months and NOBODY seems to question if it's a success or not.

:pie_thinking::pie_thinking::pie_thinking:
 
It's funny seeing people who don't want a VR device, talk about how PSVR2 won't be successful. Yet many of them have talked about buying a Steam Deck or want one. That device sold like 1 million units in 9 months and NOBODY seems to question if it's a success or not.

:pie_thinking::pie_thinking::pie_thinking:

Steam Deck is a device targeted toward a specific niche audience they were not expecting to sell as much as it was, and despite myth was never meant to compete in the handheld space proper with Switch.

In fact, all the Steam Deck competitors, whether they run android, linuxs, or Windows, are aiming for the same market, knowing it's money on the table but not a wide audience.

PSVR2 is trying to expand VR, trying to generate growth, and convince as much people as possible to buy-in, they are not the same.

Sony had that desire with the first PSVR1, but much of its sales were front-loaded earlier into the life span, they didn't have the software, or interest form consumers to keep using it long-term so sales dropped off. Not to mention no discount for much of it's life outside ONE time, which only dropped it by $50, which is STILL it's current msrp, even when the Quest 2 first came out and was similarly prices after, with better specs.
 

Crayon

Member
Steam Deck is a device targeted toward a specific niche audience they were not expecting to sell as much as it was, and despite myth was never meant to compete in the handheld space proper with Switch.

In fact, all the Steam Deck competitors, whether they run android, linuxs, or Windows, are aiming for the same market, knowing it's money on the table but not a wide audience.

PSVR2 is trying to expand VR, trying to generate growth, and convince as much people as possible to buy-in, they are not the same.

Sony had that desire with the first PSVR1, but much of its sales were front-loaded earlier into the life span, they didn't have the software, or interest form consumers to keep using it long-term so sales dropped off. Not to mention no discount for much of it's life outside ONE time, which only dropped it by $50, which is STILL it's current msrp, even when the Quest 2 first came out and was similarly prices after, with better specs.

PSVR is targeting exactly tha similar type of audience. How many of these do you think sony is trying to push? My guess is that 10 million would be considered a success. PSVR1 was know to be a success among that first wave of headsets at 5 million, but many comments still declare it a failure. Argumentation via declaration, otherwise known as bs.
 
PSVR is targeting exactly tha similar type of audience.

PSVR is not aiming for the same audience as the Steameck, the dang PS5 isn't aiming for the same audience as the Steamdeck. Based on annouceed games, PSVR2 is trying to get the Quest 2 audience they missed out on.

PSVR1 was know to be a success among that first wave of headsets at 5 million,

Sony has not given us any update on PSVR performance or whether it met their metrics as of now. We haven't gotten a sales update in a long time either.

Maybe we might get some info on that after PSVR2 launches, if not we may never know.

It won't be seen as a failure because every early headset has been given a pass automatically, however most of those sales were frontloaded, and the last several years the PSVR was selling slow until that 5 million announcement and then radio silence.

Sony clearly saw they had a path upwards which is why they have the PSVR2, but based on the low margins, the price, and their lineup, I do wonder what their new expectations are.
 

Crayon

Member
PSVR is not aiming for the same audience as the Steameck, the dang PS5 isn't aiming for the same audience as the Steamdeck. Based on annouceed games, PSVR2 is trying to get the Quest 2 audience they missed out on.



Sony has not given us any update on PSVR performance or whether it met their metrics as of now. We haven't gotten a sales update in a long time either.

Maybe we might get some info on that after PSVR2 launches, if not we may never know.

It won't be seen as a failure because every early headset has been given a pass automatically, however most of those sales were frontloaded, and the last several years the PSVR was selling slow until that 5 million announcement and then radio silence.

Sony clearly saw they had a path upwards which is why they have the PSVR2, but based on the low margins, the price, and their lineup, I do wonder what their new expectations are.

It's a similar type of audience in that it's people deeper in the ecosystem who are willing to jump out with $500 for a new toy. If 2 million steam decks can be a success for valve then 7 million psvr2's can be a success for sony.

5 million psvr's was a success among competing headsets. I believe it was the best selling. You can handwave that success by saying everything got a free pass, you can arbitrarily declare the steam deck targed at a niche and do the same for psvr2 targeting... again, some closely guarded personal estimate that shall not be spoken, but the common thread is that none of those have the kind of evidence to warrant making such confident projections at it falling short.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
PSVR is not aiming for the same audience as the Steameck, the dang PS5 isn't aiming for the same audience as the Steamdeck. Based on annouceed games, PSVR2 is trying to get the Quest 2 audience they missed out on.



Sony has not given us any update on PSVR performance or whether it met their metrics as of now. We haven't gotten a sales update in a long time either.

Maybe we might get some info on that after PSVR2 launches, if not we may never know.

It won't be seen as a failure because every early headset has been given a pass automatically, however most of those sales were frontloaded, and the last several years the PSVR was selling slow until that 5 million announcement and then radio silence.

Sony clearly saw they had a path upwards which is why they have the PSVR2, but based on the low margins, the price, and their lineup, I do wonder what their new expectations are.

See it's people like you that make this conversation frustrating. The bar you all set for certain things is so silly. Sony clearly wants to expand the type of games that PlayStation gamers play and "HOW" they interact with the same game that is on 2D screens (i.e. GT7, RE8, and No Mans Sky). This solves two problems......

1. Keeps engagement high for current PS gamers.
2. Brings in new people to the PlayStation fold (from Nintendo and Xbox).


But there's no way they are expecting PSVR2 to outsell the Xbox Series consoles or something crazy like that. It's all additive. It's a new pillar. Selling 10 million units at an average price of $500 equals $5 Billion! Now imagine a world where they sold 10 million units in 3 years. How would that not be considered a success?
 
It's a similar type of audience in that it's people deeper in the ecosystem who are willing to jump out with $500 for a new toy. If 2 million steam decks can be a success for valve then 7 million psvr2's can be a success for sony.

Or, Sony has completely different metrics for success with PSVR than Valve has for the Steam Deck?

5 million psvr's was a success among competing headsets. I believe it was the best selling.

Samsung.

But there's no way they are expecting PSVR2 to outsell the Xbox Series consoles or something crazy like that.

I didn't say this anywhere in the psot you quoted, are you seeing things?
 

Crayon

Member
Or, Sony has completely different metrics for success with PSVR than Valve has for the Steam Deck?



Samsung.



I didn't say this anywhere in the psot you quoted, are you seeing things?

By metrics you mean numbers? Because we are talking generally about the type of buyer. Sony and valve both have many, many customers. Both the deck and psvr2 are pricey companion devices for the minority of the audience who are willing to splash out some cash. Really and truly, what is this secret threshold of units sold that makes it a success or not. With precious little info, I'm putting my guess out there that it's 7-8 million lifetime. Maybe we'll know if I'm right or wrong but I will not be having to move the goalposts if I'm wrong and that's why I'm willing to put that on the table.

Samsung. Ah, corrected.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Or, Sony has completely different metrics for success with PSVR than Valve has for the Steam Deck?

I think you are missing the point. I was specifically talking about video game talking heads on podcasts stating that PSVR2 won't succeed (while they were supposed to be talking about a simple PSVR2 launch game article), while at the same time being head over heels talking about their Steam Deck experience.

Some in the media lead with "PSVR2 will fail" first and then talk about the news story. Yet, they don't do that with Steam Deck stories.
 
By metrics you mean numbers? Because we are talking generally about the type of buyer. Sony and valve both have many, many customers. Both the deck and psvr2 are pricey companion devices for the minority of the audience who are willing to splash out some cash. Really and truly, what is this secret threshold of units sold that makes it a success or not. With precious little info, I'm putting my guess out there that it's 7-8 million lifetime. Maybe we'll know if I'm right or wrong but I will not be having to move the goalposts if I'm wrong and that's why I'm willing to put that on the table.

Samsung. Ah, corrected.

The difference is VR had a cluster even for entry level around the same price the $349 Quest 2 which is now $400 was an outlier, and we are looking at $400-500 entry level with the higher-end of that price closer to a half-step and not really appealing to the same demographics, and for $700+ you can get even better headsets now/upcoming for those that don't mind the cost.

The Steam Deck is a niche market that's still attached to PC's and PC gaming, basically just an evolution (kind of) of the mobile phone PC concept where you can use linux/android/windows on the go and hook it to a screen for desktop use. Which the last Windows Phones actually had a name for pushing WIndows 10, continuum.

It's not gong to appeal to anything more or less. There's no entry-level, it's all enthusiasts and trying to convince that audience with features to buy a handheld PC at a certain price, it's not in the Switch market, there's no entry-level, it's primarily for those who want a PC like experience or a handheld Ouya.

VR is targeting different demographics with the only real limited overlap being across high-end PCVR and the Steamdeck, but only for a small percentage.

For VR to be a success, you need multiple different demographics to opt-in that the Steam Deck isn't aiming for, and vice versa.
 
I think you are missing the point. I was specifically talking about

That was to Crayon...

My guess is that 10 million would be considered a success. PSVR1 was know to be a success among that first wave of headsets at 5 million, but many comments still declare it a failure. Argumentation via declaration, otherwise known as bs.
specifically talking about video game talking heads on podcasts stating that PSVR2 won't succeed (while they were supposed to be talking about a simple PSVR2 launch game article),

huh...

Anyway, a lot of people think VR is dead, expect failure to be on headsets other than just the PSVR2 being thrown around by these podcasts, journalists or "experts" and such
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
The difference is VR had a cluster even for entry level around the same price the $349 Quest 2 which is now $400 was an outlier, and we are looking at $400-500 entry level with the higher-end of that price closer to a half-step and not really appealing to the same demographics, and for $700+ you can get even better headsets now/upcoming for those that don't mind the cost.

The Steam Deck is a niche market that's still attached to PC's and PC gaming, basically just an evolution (kind of) of the mobile phone PC concept where you can use linux/android/windows on the go and hook it to a screen for desktop use. Which the last Windows Phones actually had a name for pushing WIndows 10, continuum.

It's not gong to appeal to anything more or less. There's no entry-level, it's all enthusiasts and trying to convince that audience with features to buy a handheld PC at a certain price, it's not in the Switch market, there's no entry-level, it's primarily for those who want a PC like experience or a handheld Ouya.

VR is targeting different demographics with the only real limited overlap being across high-end PCVR and the Steamdeck, but only for a small percentage.

For VR to be a success, you need multiple different demographics to opt-in that the Steam Deck isn't aiming for, and vice versa.

Not true! VR can be a success with Playstation gamers and PCVR enthusiasts. The games have to be there first and foremost though. At the moment, that's the main problem. In the PSVR days, the control scheme and power of the PS4 was holding things back. Not now.

Anyway, a lot of people think VR is dead, expect failure to be on headsets other than just the PSVR2 being thrown around by these podcasts, journalists or "experts" and such

You're right. Alot of them do think it's dead. The next 2-3 years will show us if that's true or not. I'm betting it's not dead. Do you or anybody else know how powerful the Meta Quest 2 is in power? And how powerful the Meta Quest 3 is rumored to be? Do we have Teraflop or Gigaflop numbers for either of those mobile VR devices?
 
I don't know what definition of success is being used here but anybody with even a passing interest in VR should be happy that Sony continues to support it. The last thing anybody should want is Meta to be the only big player in the VR scene, especially seeing as how they have poured basically all of their resources into standalone VR headsets and left PCVR behind. I'm excited to see what Sony does when it comes to the games they release for VR.

Of course PSVR2 isn't the cheapest option but it's a good price for the tech included. Hell, you can get a PSVR2 and a PS5 for just a little bit more than a Valve Index alone (with no PC to run it with). Still can't figure out how that thing still costs that much.

Anyways, I definitely want a PSVR2 at some point. I've got a XSX and don't play it that much and can't justify buying a PS5 right now but will get one eventually to catch up on exclusives that I've missed. Hopefully someday they allow it to be used with PC as well as PS5--I know that would speed my timetable up.
 
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Not true! VR can be a success with Playstation gamers and PCVR enthusiasts.

You need demographics from groups within a general audience to be a success, you can't sell profitable amounts of headsets with just hardcore people that want to spend $1000+. Especially with current margins, it's not actually possible

PSVR1 sold 5 million because they got some of that audience in the early stages of this wave of VR. They were able to appeal to them on top of the enthusiasts. You can't sell 5 million or more headsets without them.

PCVR sales are atrocious for PCVR exclusive headsets, because the access level is too high, even for some enthusiasts.

Also PS4 power has nothing to do with it, PSVR had a decent price and the base console had a price cut to supplement VR adoption, PS5 and PSVR2 are in the exact opposite situation whether you don't own a PS5/PSVR2, or already own a PS5. The PSVR2 is launching with much of its opening library to use attract casuals to the new features of PSVR2, and I'm sure they will have demos in stores again (maybe not as many since some stores only did it for the novelty years ago) because Sony KNOWS they need to get those audiences to come to PSVR2 for it to sell well, grow and succeed
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
You need demographics from groups within a general audience to be a success, you can't sell profitable amounts of headsets with just hardcore people that want to spend $1000+. Especially with current margins, it's not actually possible

PSVR1 sold 5 million because they got some of that audience in the early stages of this wave of VR. They were able to appeal to them on top of the enthusiasts. You can't sell 5 million or more headsets without them.

PCVR sales are atrocious for PCVR exclusive headsets, because the access level is too high, even for some enthusiasts.

Also PS4 power has nothing to do with it, PSVR had a decent price and the base console had a price cut to supplement VR adoption, PS5 and PSVR2 are in the exact opposite situation whether you don't own a PS5/PSVR2, or already own a PS5. The PSVR2 is launching with much of its opening library to use attract casuals to the new features of PSVR2, and I'm sure they will have demos in stores again (maybe not as many since some stores only did it for the novelty years ago) because Sony KNOWS they need to get those audiences to come to PSVR2 for it to sell well, grow and succeed

Well yeah, I didn't mean for you to think "PS5 gamers" were all hardcore gamers. Some of them will be from the general PS5 audience. The general audience isn't more than likely going to get PSVR2 this year though.
 
Well yeah, I didn't mean for you to think "PS5 gamers" were all hardcore gamers. Some of them will be from the general PS5 audience. The general audience isn't more than likely going to get PSVR2 this year though.

That's sort of a problem with the influx of competition releasing this year.

I suspect Sony is hoping to sell it's 2 million shipment by later in the year, and then ship more for the last quarter, but that may be easier said than done unless they have some surprise moves middle of the year and later.

But first we have to see how the launch window does.
 

Techies

Member
Saw some people mentioning that the cable is not detachable from the headset. If that's true then Sony messed up big time.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
That's sort of a problem with the influx of competition releasing this year.

I suspect Sony is hoping to sell it's 2 million shipment by later in the year, and then ship more for the last quarter, but that may be easier said than done unless they have some surprise moves middle of the year and later.

But first we have to see how the launch window does.

I agree. I'm curious how powerful MetaQuest 3 will be and how much it'll cost. To me, no way it cost less than $600. And also.......what will they do with MetaQuest 2, when MetaQuest 3 is out?
 
what will they do with MetaQuest 2, when MetaQuest 3 is out?

Quest 2 is probably already near dead, they are still the best selling headset, but they didn't do to hot last year, and had a passable Q4, and they have gone radio silent o reporting more sales numbers, or even any other helpful metrics.

Most likely, they won't say anything about Quest 2 until Quest 3 is out to replace it, unless they reach a milestone number before then.
 

Dream-Knife

Banned
The PSVR2 is USB C only.
Ive got native USB C support on my motherboard, I wont need an adapter so Im totally fine with a long USB cable.
Its tech is too good to pass up at that price......if it works on PC.
You plug your VR headset into your GPU, not your motherboard.
 

midnightAI

Member
Saw some people mentioning that the cable is not detachable from the headset. If that's true then Sony messed up big time.
And once again people are wrong

Or rather, misinformed, it is detachable but it does require some disassembly of the head strap as the cable is routed through that, but unlike PSVR1 it isn't directly soldered to the board, it is an actual plug in connector this time.
 
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