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[Biker19]

The Xbone wasn't designed for core gamers in the first place. Microsoft thought that they were already in the bag - all of their excessive design choices were meant to entice non-gamers; hence their messaging at the reveal was about anything but the games.

This. Unlike with systems such as the Original Xbox, Xbox 360, & PS4, Xbox One was heavily designed as an entertainment/media hub machine first in mind, & not a gaming machine.

Their 1st commercial for Xbox One wasn't about games, it was about the NFL.

 

[Superman00]

I would be very surprised if it can keep up a 15m/year momentum, yes.

But I like to be surprised, so we'll see what happens.

What? You think it would flatten out at 15M a year? It can hit 20M easily with the right movers. Some of the biggest franchises haven't even been release yet. FFXV, GTA6, GT7, Uncharted 4, etc. Let alone $300, $250, $250 price point.

 

[kyser73]

The Xbone wasn't designed for core gamers in the first place. Microsoft thought that they were already in the bag - all of their excessive design choices were meant to entice non-gamers; hence their messaging at the reveal was about anything but the games.


For the first five years of its existence, the 360 enjoyed about a 2:1 sales advantage over the PS3. Currently, the Xbone is sitting at 45:55 compared to the PS4, and the latest NPD was at 3:4. The Xbone is nowhere close to matching the 360's market share.

The question wasn't market share it was unit volume.

Serious question, how likely is it to be able to match?

Microsoft had to drastically cut prices just to keep PS4 within their sights. That suggests a serious disconnect in terms of customers' perceived value of the Bone. I have to admit, I'm not familiar with the US/UK market, but it didn't seem to me that the 360 suffered from the same problem.

If they keep the price competitive relative to the PS4, MS can shift units. They aren't going to win, even in the US, but I reckon they can make a decent fist of at least keeping up with PS4 sales in the US. The UK the same to an extent, but I suspect that there is less appetite for dual-ownership in the UK than the US.

 

[rokkerkory]

40% more power too

 

[Pathfinder]

What? You think it would flatten out at 15M a year? It can hit 20M easily with the right movers. Some of the biggest franchises haven't even been release yet. FFXV, GTA6, GT7, Uncharted 4, etc. Let alone $300, $250, $250 price point.

That would definitely be something to see.

I just don't feel consoles in general have as much pull now as they did generations ago since there's lots of other options for gaming.

 

[TomShoe]

40% more power too

We've come full circle.

 

[IndoAssassin]

This. Unlike with systems such as the Original Xbox, Xbox 360, & PS4, Xbox One was heavily designed as an entertainment/media hub machine first in mind, & not a gaming machine.

Their 1st commercial for Xbox One wasn't about games, it was about the NFL.

I wonder how powerful the X1 could have been if it were designed for gamers first.

 

[Biker19]

I wonder how powerful the X1 could have been if it were designed for gamers first.

Possibly much greater than even PS4, I imagine. Microsoft, however was so busy chasing a very outdated model for the living room in an attempt to grab the casual market, especially considering that the war for the living room was over a long time ago thanks to mobile products such as Smartphones & Tablets.

Now because that didn't work out, they reverted to being "all about gaming" & "all about the gamers" again, copying Sony within PS4. But it's too little, too late, as first impressions mean a lot to a certain product within consumers, nor can they change on what they have put inside of the hardware, as they're stuck with it for the rest of this generation.

 

[4Tran]

The question wasn't market share it was unit volume.

With a big drop in market share, Microsoft is going to see a significant drop in unit volume as well unless the overall customer base sees massive growth. The most optimistic projections only estimate a modest growth, so the Xbone is be well short of the 360's sales in the U.S.

 

[SolicitorPirate]

If they keep the price competitive relative to the PS4, MS can shift units. They aren't going to win, even in the US, but I reckon they can make a decent fist of at least keeping up with PS4 sales in the US. The UK the same to an extent, but I suspect that there is less appetite for dual-ownership in the UK than the US.

How big is dual ownership in the US? I can imagine a lot of core gamers getting both systems, especially with the Bone being as cheap as it is, but it seems to me that a lot of casual and semi-casual consumers are just getting the PS4 and sticking with that. Am I wrong here?

 

[Pathfinder]

Possibly much greater than even PS4, I imagine. Microsoft, however was so busy chasing a very outdated model for the living room in an attempt to grab the casual market, especially considering that the war for the living room was over a long time ago thanks to mobile products such as Smartphones & Tablets.

Now because that didn't work out, they reverted to being "all about gaming" & "all about the gamers" again, copying Sony within PS4. But it's too little, too late, as first impressions mean a lot to a certain product within consumers, nor can they change on what they put inside of the hardware, as they're stuck with it for the rest of this generation.

They can still have a good run even though their console isn't as powerful as their competition this time around. Making the best of what they have is all they can do, and they're definitely pushing forward.

And if they're smart, they're making notes for next generation.

How big is dual ownership in the US? I can imagine a lot of core gamers getting both systems, especially with the Bone being as cheap as it is, but it seems to me that a lot of casual and semi-casual consumers are just getting the PS4 and sticking with that. Am I wrong here?

That's a hard question to answer. But if I had to guess, I'd say dual ownership isn't as strong this gen since there are more options for gaming platforms out there now. One console may be good enough for casual gamers, especially if they already have a smartphone, tablet, 3DS, or Vita.

 

[demigod]

57m xbone is laughable. By the time they reach that number, xbox 1080 will be out.

 

[kittoo]

Holy shit WTF hahahaha

 

[Katana_Strikes]

40% is too high. 20% more likely. The US will be super close between the two through the entire generation.

Believe it or not the World consists of more than just the US. Outside the US, the XBone is getting completely crushed. 20% would be a miracle and extremely wishful thinking from MS.

 

[Louis Cyphre]

Yeah I agree about PS3 sales helping. I don't expect PS5 to be on par with PC but I think you make a good point about being a hardware provider vs service provider. I think they will have a hybrid hardware system, that won't have blu-ray or physical but just a small media box or built in to a TV. And a physical box with blu-ray for those who don't have great internet. lol at least I think that's where the future is headed..

With consoles there is only so much headroom to work with and developers continue to favor graphics over gameplay for the most part. The PS5 will be more powerful than the PS4 but they will push graphical fidelity to the max and compromise frame rates, it has always been the case with few exceptions where some game developers care about frame rate more depending on the category of game and what is more important to them. Sony will not mandate 60 frames per second. I would love to see all game have the option to tweak settings like PC games do but most are simply plug and play which is what console gamers prefer for the most part.

What's good is the PS4 selling so well which means they will be more inclined to keep console gaming alive. Nintendo will also make another console because they pretty much have to. Microsoft who knows. The Xbox department hasn't been their brightest sector but they do want to have the living room entertainment market and they can afford to keep plugging away because other services like XBox Live, Skype and Windows all play a role in it.

 

[The Artisan]

IGN's doing an article on it now.
http://www.ign.com/articles/2015/02/19/ps4-to-outsell-xbox-one-by-23-million-by-2019-report-suggests

Pretty much. At the least, I wouldn't put money on it.

Europe is ignoring the Bone and in Asia, it might as well not exist. The 57 million being predicted would have to come almost exclusively from the UK and US, and I don't see that happening, especially when those markets are still skewing PS4.

Edit: Anecdotally, while I was working in Malaysia, stores didn't even bother to stock the Xbox One or games for it. No one was buying the thing. In Australia, the Bone is much more visible, but personally, I don't know a single person who owns one, whereas nearly all my core gamer friends own a PS4. The situation is worse with more casual audiences, who with the exception of those who played Halo and CoD on the 360, don't seem to be aware of the Xbox One.

as ZhugEX suggested then, this prediction is probably a little wrong.

That's stretching things just a little bit.

Quite a few people think it is possible. Who knows. It definitely seems to be the only console capable of doing so this gen.

This.

Plus this year some of those Japanese PS4 games actually start coming out for those of us who favor those games too (Disgaea 5, Bloodborne, Type-0 HD, Persona 5 is also 2015 even outside Japan according to Atlus USA's website, and a good number more, etc). Those finally starting to come out should further push the PS4.

And then in the future Gran Turismo is also still in the waiting.

Let's hope the Ps4 can actually pick up some steam this year in Japan

40% more power too

I thought it was 50?

 

[Neuromancer]

Let's hope the Ps4 can actually pick up some steam this year

I hope you're not implying that it didn't pick up steam last year.

I don't see why the numbers wouldn't continue to grow. A price drop around E3 time or Holiday would go a long way, if Sony felt the need.

 

[Pathfinder]

Quite a few people think it is possible. Who knows. It definitely seems to be the only console capable of doing so this gen.

I just think lots of people's heads are in the clouds regarding this, and they're not taking into consideration that console gaming isn't the same as it once was, so one shouldn't expect the same results as seen in the past.

 

[Disaster Nebraska]

If Xbox One can pass 40m worldwide I would be surprised. 57m is fanboy-tier numbers.

 

[The Artisan]

I hope you're not implying that it didn't pick up steam last year.

I don't see why the numbers wouldn't continue to grow. A price drop around E3 time or Holiday would go a long way, if Sony felt the need.

I meant to say pick up steam in Japan** sorry

I just think lots of people's heads are in the clouds regarding this, and they're not taking into consideration that console gaming isn't the same as it once was, so one shouldn't expect the same results as seen in the past.

This is true, but I think it's been stated that the Ps4 at points has been on par with the Ps2 in terms of sales-pacing. I don't think it's ridiculous to suggest that it's possible it'll cross the 100m mark and then some.

If Xbox One can pass 40m worldwide I would be surprised. 57m is fanboy-tier numbers.

So you think this article could be biased, downplaying the potential gap come 4 years?

 

[Disaster Nebraska]

So you think this article could be biased, downplaying the potential gap come 4 years?

I think this article could've been written pre-E3 2013. Not really sure if I'd call it biased, just incredibly naive and out of touch with reality in favor of a particular company...

 

[Inuhanyou]

That would definitely be something to see.

I just don't feel consoles in general have as much pull now as they did generations ago since there's lots of other options for gaming.

And yet, so far that is not the case considering its pace. So where does your viewpoint come from?

Just because PC is there doesn't mean there is no console audience anymore. Same with mobile(although in japan obviously that isn't true just as a result of people not being at home as much at all)

Many of these things can coexist

 

[Pathfinder]

And yet, so far that is not the case considering its pace. So where does your viewpoint come from?

The console has only been out for a year and three months. The pace we have seen thus far is not necessarily indicative of the continued pace of sales. Once the initial boom of interest and excitement for the new console generation wears off, I feel the sales pace is going to decrease and turn into a slower climb.

Now, if another year goes by and sales pace keeps up at the same rate it is now, then that will probably start changing my mind.

 

[The Artisan]

I think this article could've been written pre-E3 2013. Not really sure if I'd call it biased, just incredibly naive and out of touch with reality in favor of a particular company...

it was published yesterday, why would they release an article written 2 years ago?

 

[Tidus_Great]

ps4 has so much potential.

the best graphics and the most likely console to get JRPGs winning the market. so nice

 

[Thunder Monkey]

If Xbox One can pass 40m worldwide I would be surprised. 57m is fanboy-tier numbers.

Based on current sales rates my predictions are between 40-45 million units for XboxOne.

30 million with a top of 35 million units from NA alone. I'm expecting PS4 numbers to be around 35-40 million units in NA. It's Europe where the hurt for MS will come from. Given current margins on the PS4 side I expect a minimum of 45 million units in Europe. Probably closer to 50 million units. With a max of 55 million units. For MS over a six year span I expect their best to be 15 million units. Realistically it's going to top out around 12 million units.

Japan will pad Sony's unit tally, but little more than. I expect the high end of lifetime sales there to be around 6 million units. MS won't reach 100k units.

An absolute maximum of 50 million units for XboxOne. With my minimum being 35 million units.

My maximum in six years for the PS4 is right around 105 million units. My minimum is 90 million units.

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Based on current sales rates my predictions are between 40-45 million units for XboxOne.

30 million with a top of 35 million units from NA alone. I'm expecting PS4 numbers to be around 35-40 million units in NA. It's Europe where the hurt for MS will come from. Given current margins on the PS4 side I expect a minimum of 45 million units in Europe. Probably closer to 50 million units. With a max of 55 million units. For MS over a six year span I expect their best to be 15 million units. Realistically it's going to top out around 12 million units.

Japan will pad Sony's unit tally, but little more than. I expect the high end of lifetime sales there to be around 6 million units. MS won't reach 100k units.

An absolute maximum of 50 million units for XboxOne. With my minimum being 35 million units.

My maximum in six years for the PS4 is right around 105 million units. My minimum is 90 million units.

That's a really good estimate. What would you add in your estimates if PS4 is somewhat succesful also in China?