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Strategy Analytics report: PS4 to outsell Xbox One by 40% through 2018


so all through out this year, the Ps4 will be getting exclusive games from some of its biggest franchises and arguably THE biggest (uncharted at this point probably if playstation's biggest, and yes the xbone is also getting several many exclusives but it seems the playstation's getting more attentio), but the year will end with less of a gap in sales than last year?
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
so all through out this year, the Ps4 will be getting exclusive games from some of its biggest franchises and arguably THE biggest (uncharted at this point probably if playstation's biggest, and yes the xbone is also getting several many exclusives but it seems the playstation's getting more attentio), but the year will end with less of a gap in sales than last year?

It's a prediction.

Predictions are most of the time, wrong.
 
40% sounds about right and that is only if Microsoft continues to keep a lower price of $50. If Sony drops it to the same level or Microsoft's continuous 'promotions' end and it ever becomes the same price as the PS4 that number will be drastically higher in favor of the PS4. Microsoft continues to struggle outside of the US for the Xbox brand and there looks to be no signs of that changing.

What's become clear is Nintendo has fallen off the grid and even those who like Nintendo more than Microsoft have for the most part ignored them as any sort of competition.
 
Hmm? Are those numbers right? PS4 shipped 18.5mil and XBO 12.4 in the first year? I thought the XBO was at like 10 million or something.
Also I don't see the XBO selling more than 50 million personally.

The extra 2.4 million shipped are Xbones literally shipped between two warehouses, back and forth.
 

Freeman

Banned
I don't get how it could change so much. PS4 didn't even take off in Japan like it probably will at some point(even if the market there is shrinking), PS4 never had a price cut, there was never a Uncharted or GT on PS4.

MS also doesn't have Kinect novelty to push their console sales mid gen, if anything they run the risk of VR taking off on PS first.

2:1 is still a safe bet.
 
latest


obligatory

How did this take 471 posts?

And why do they call the first 14 months on sale including 2 decembers as 'the first year'? No wonder Ubisoft have such lofty expectations for the next 12 months.


And why does the Wii U line start inside 2011 and the PS4/XBO line start inside 2012?
ZiYQiP5.jpg

wtf
 
Way too high for XboxOne.

Total sales may hit 50 million units, but I still think that's around ten million units too many.

And given current trajectories that's too low for PS4.
 

GobFather

Member
Why does Sony printing money make you happy? Are you a stockholder?

Why do you care? I was only saying how PS plus has changed Sony financially, learning from the success of Live. With the high prediction of hardware sales by the Analysts, the PS plus amount will go up. That is all. OMG >_<..

Because we all want a PS5 with possibly even more better specs, & to guarantee future games in both Native 1080p w/60 FPS.

:D yes please.
 

rpg_fan

Member
And why do they call the first 14 months on sale including 2 decembers as 'the first year'?

This is the part that bugged me about it. I don't know who this company is, but how could they take 14 months (including 2 holidays), call it a year, then extrapolate from that.
 
Why do you care? I was only saying how PS plus has changed Sony financially, learning from the success of Live. With the high prediction of hardware sales by the Analysts, the PS plus amount will go up. That is all. OMG >_<..



:D yes please.

Plus is definitely going to help but before the PS3 Sony made a ton of money without charging for online. As for expecting the PS5 to have 60fps that will never become standard on consoles and why anyone that truly cares about specs and performance should be looking into PC gaming. Of course it will have better specs than the PS4, that much is obvious. What is unknown is if the console will be what we expect it to be or will Sony change from hardware provider to service provider.
 

Duxxy3

Member
Besides price, what did the PS4 have?

Not saying it didn't have anything, but still, it's a silly question

A positive public image. Or rather it didn't have a negative image. The xbox one still hasn't built up its image to the level of its predecessor. Aside from the graphics upgrade, it's seen as worse than the 360. OS, chat, party, controller. All of them are considered a downgrade by more than a few xbox one owners.
 

Javin98

Banned
LOL, 57 million seems way too high. I think the XB1 will reach about 50 million at the end of its lifetime while the PS4 will be ~120 million. Doesn't seem realistic at all for the XB1 to be selling more than 10 million a year, especially after the PS4 gets a price drop.
 

Purest 78

Member
I wonder how much the pre-launch DRM drama hurt the Xbox One's numbers versus the simple fact that it was initially priced at $100 more than the PS4.

I think being so heavily focused on kinect hurt it the most. Can you imagine what the x1 could have been, if kinect resources went into the console. They severely misread what core gamers really wanted.
 
PS4 only enjoying a 40% advantage over Xbone just doesn't seem feasible. The Bone only has two viable markets, both of which it's still losing. To get this result, the Bone would have to crush the PS4 in the US and UK.
 

joecanada

Member
oh god THANK YOU

You get it. I'm going to make you a 'getting it' badge and mail it to you.

Wrong you just stated a couple pages ago that 1080p ps4 was not noticeable difference to xbox 720

Now it's 480 is a whole generation gap from 720. Lol nothing you say is even remotely credible

Edit - nevermind he is gone
 
so you think the estimation is really far off?

Pretty much. At the least, I wouldn't put money on it.

Europe is ignoring the Bone and in Asia, it might as well not exist. The 57 million being predicted would have to come almost exclusively from the UK and US, and I don't see that happening, especially when those markets are still skewing PS4.

Edit: Anecdotally, while I was working in Malaysia, stores didn't even bother to stock the Xbox One or games for it. No one was buying the thing. In Australia, the Bone is much more visible, but personally, I don't know a single person who owns one, whereas nearly all my core gamer friends own a PS4. The situation is worse with more casual audiences, who with the exception of those who played Halo and CoD on the 360, don't seem to be aware of the Xbox One.
 

kyser73

Member
For those of you just joining us, let me play Lionel Mandrake and do a summary


Yeah this.

Their prediction just sounds like 'Here's a line. We will continue the line at that angle until we reach the end of our graph's x-axis.'

HERE! Expensive Corporate report! Please buy

PS4 only enjoying a 40% advantage over Xbone just doesn't seem feasible. The Bone only has two viable markets, both of which it's still losing. To get this result, the Bone would have to crush the PS4 in the US and UK.

If it can match 360 sales in US/UK and then whatever chump change from the ROW it could probably do it.
 
If it can match 360 sales in US/UK and then whatever chump change from the ROW it could probably do it.

Serious question, how likely is it to be able to match?

Microsoft had to drastically cut prices just to keep PS4 within their sights. That suggests a serious disconnect in terms of customers' perceived value of the Bone. I have to admit, I'm not familiar with the US/UK market, but it didn't seem to me that the 360 suffered from the same problem.
 

4Tran

Member
I think being so heavily focused on kinect hurt it the most. Can you imagine what the x1 could have been, if kinect resources went into the console. They severely misread what core gamers really wanted.
The Xbone wasn't designed for core gamers in the first place. Microsoft thought that they were already in the bag - all of their excessive design choices were meant to entice non-gamers; hence their messaging at the reveal was about anything but the games.

Serious question, how likely is it to be able to match?
For the first five years of its existence, the 360 enjoyed about a 2:1 sales advantage over the PS3. Currently, the Xbone is sitting at 45:55 compared to the PS4, and the latest NPD was at 3:4. The Xbone is nowhere close to matching the 360's market share.
 

GobFather

Member
Plus is definitely going to help but before the PS3 Sony made a ton of money without charging for online. As for expecting the PS5 to have 60fps that will never become standard on consoles and why anyone that truly cares about specs and performance should be looking into PC gaming. Of course it will have better specs than the PS4, that much is obvious. What is unknown is if the console will be what we expect it to be or will Sony change from hardware provider to service provider.

Yeah I agree about PS3 sales helping. I don't expect PS5 to be on par with PC but I think you make a good point about being a hardware provider vs service provider. I think they will have a hybrid hardware system, that won't have blu-ray or physical but just a small media box or built in to a TV. And a physical box with blu-ray for those who don't have great internet. lol at least I think that's where the future is headed.. :p
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
That's stretching things just a little bit.

At the rate its going, matching or beating PS1 numbers is feasible. Beating PS2 numbers is pie in the sky. The rest of the world is much more intune with PS these days than ever before. Its not a 3 region sect anymore
 
At the rate its going, matching or beating PS1 numbers is feasible. Beating PS2 numbers is pie in the sky. The rest of the world is much more intune with PS these days than ever before. Its not a 3 region sect anymore

It's a different world now than in the PS1 days.

I'm sure it'll get close to or break 80m, but definitely not 100m.
 

Javin98

Banned
It's a different world now than in the PS1 days.

I'm sure it'll get close to or break 80m, but definitely not 100m.
I seriously think that ~100 million is easily doable for the PS4. I personally predict ~120 million at the end of its life cycle and I think a few others would agree with me. Keep in mind that the PS4 is just slightly behind the Wii in sales and is very unlikely to drop off in a few years.
 
so all through out this year, the Ps4 will be getting exclusive games from some of its biggest franchises and arguably THE biggest (uncharted at this point probably if playstation's biggest, and yes the xbone is also getting several many exclusives but it seems the playstation's getting more attentio), but the year will end with less of a gap in sales than last year?

This.

Plus this year some of those Japanese PS4 games actually start coming out for those of us who favor those games too (Disgaea 5, Bloodborne, Type-0 HD, Persona 5 is also 2015 even outside Japan according to Atlus USA's website, and a good number more, etc). Those finally starting to come out should further push the PS4.

And then in the future Gran Turismo is also still in the waiting.
 

Superman00

Liverpool01
It's a different world now than in the PS1 days.

I'm sure it'll get close to or break 80m, but definitely not 100m.

PS4 is already at 20M shipped. 60M more in 4 years mean an average of 15M shipped per a year. It already shipped more than that last year. With way more games coming out, price cut, and much lower price point in the end. You don't think they can shipped an average of 15M per year? Just because the generation may end in 4 years doesn't mean the PS4 will stop selling. If the PS3 was at $100(still around $200 after 8 years) and lower, it would be easy to get to 100M+.
 
PS4 is already at 20M shipped. 60M more in 4 years mean an average of 15M shipped per a year. It already shipped more than that last year. With way more games coming out, price cut, and much lower price point in the end. You don't think they can shipped an average of 15M per year? Just because the generation may end in 4 years doesn't mean the PS4 will stop selling. If the PS3 was at $100(still around $200 after 8 years) and lower, it would be easy to get to 100M+.

I would be very surprised if it can keep up a 15m/year momentum, yes.

But I like to be surprised, so we'll see what happens.
 
40% is too high. 20% more likely. The US will be super close between the two through the entire generation.

The U.S. is less than half of Sony's market and Xbox isn't even competitive in most of the other places. Xbox dominating the U.S. last generation led to a virtual tie worldwide. Being close in the U.S. is a dream come true for Sony because PlayStation owns the rest of the world.
 
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