Support NeoGAF

[clay_ghost]

Dragon Quest XI did 950,315 on the first week for the PS4 and it already hit over 1 million so far.

MH3 for Wii sold 520,000 on it's first week and it's LTD is over 1 million so far. I may have used the wrong word by saying easily but hitting 1 million is very possible for Japan.

Won't Capcom estimation be fair if they expect MH:W to sell around 500000 copies in each region during this FY since at most they have around 3 months of sales after the game release?

1.5 for MHW?

That's just the Japanese market right? No way that's WW.

The best selling console version MHTri can't meet that amount during its 1st FY , why do you think a PS4 version which only have a single million seller can meet it.

 

[Sesha]

Reminder that these are estimates for the end of the fiscal year, not lifetime numbers.

 

[DryEyeRelief]

if MvCI sells 2 million it shows how crucial having arcade mode is.

 

[Nirolak]

It's not actually clear that these aren't Capcom's estimates as they come from the analyst firm visiting Capcom and talking to their executives about their expectations.

Similarly, the wording on other related tweets implies this is the analyst passing on what Capcom told them.

I've added a note to the OP explaining the situation.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

I can't help but feel the 1.5 million number for MHW is just what they are hoping to sell by the end of the Fiscal Year in March. Perhaps they are planning on releasing MHW in one of the last few weeks of the Fiscal year.

 

[NotLiquid]

if MvCI sells 2 million it shows how crucial having arcade mode is.

Either that or it'll also fuel the notion that fighting games need an Injustice-styled story campaign.

 

[vala]

Maybe the game is not very high budget?
They are using the old MT framework instead of the RE engine after all...

 

[clay_ghost]

I can't help but feel the 1.5 million number for MHW is just what they are hoping to sell by the end of the Fiscal Year in March. Perhaps they are planning on releasing MHW in one of the last few weeks of the Fiscal year.

Huh, i presume its just this FY lol, there is no good business sense for them to pursue MH on PS4 if they don't hope that it will meet or beat 3DS sales.

 

[Neonep]

A lot of you guys are overestimating the sales potential of MHW. That game will hit probably around 2.5-3 mil after a year of being out. They are betting on the west to really buy this game and the west probably won't buy it.

 

[Sesha]

I can't help but feel the 1.5 million number for MHW is just what they are hoping to sell by the end of the Fiscal Year in March. Perhaps they are planning on releasing MHW in one of the last few weeks of the Fiscal year.

That's exactly it. Capcom very rarely makes estimates about life time sales.

 

[Vena]

It's not actually clear that these aren't Capcom's estimates as they come from the analyst firm visiting Capcom and talking to their executives about their expectations.

Similarly, the wording on other related tweets implies this is the analyst passing on what Capcom told them.

I've added a note to the OP explaining the situation.

Thanks, helps make it clear that this sounds like it came from Capcom, even if in totality its still a bit nebulous.

I can't help but feel the 1.5 million number for MHW is just what they are hoping to sell by the end of the Fiscal Year in March. Perhaps they are planning on releasing MHW in one of the last few weeks of the Fiscal year.

These numbers are always per FY, not LTDs. This is an analyst, they care about annual successes for investor interests.

 

[Defuser]

Maybe the game is not very high budget?
They are using the old MT framework instead of the RE engine after all...

Engine plays a part of it but it's the others like creation of assets,animations and the man hours put into it that makes the budget. They more or less have to rehaul everything for MH:W.

 

[Neonep]

I can't help but feel the 1.5 million number for MHW is just what they are hoping to sell by the end of the Fiscal Year in March. Perhaps they are planning on releasing MHW in one of the last few weeks of the Fiscal year.

This has been obvious since it's announcement. Guarantee the game gets a release date of somewhere in Late January or February of next year. If that wasn't the cae MVC:I would be coming out in that time frame.

 

[schuelma]

Isn't Capcom expecting to sell 10M more this fiscal year or something like that? 1.5 for MH World makes no sense in that context.

 

[Nirolak]

Isn't Capcom expecting to sell 10M more this fiscal year or something like that? 1.5 for MH World makes no sense in that context.

I suspect we won't get this fully ironed out until their next fiscal call.

 

[clay_ghost]

Isn't Capcom expecting to sell 10M more this fiscal year or something like that? 1.5 for MH World makes no sense in that context.

Capcom secretly expect those RE ports on the Switch to overperforms again so they can announce more RE ports!

 

[lyrick]

Huh, i presume its just this FY lol, there is no good business sense for them to pursue MH on PS4 if they don't hope that it will meet or beat 3DS sales.

In all likelihood it won't, They're putting a lot more hope on a drastic increase (over 40% growth) in sales on their "Catalog" titles while actually expecting a decline in New title sales.

That really shouldn't give their investors any warm fuzzies this FY.

 

[BitStyle]

Isn't Capcom expecting to sell 10M more this fiscal year or something like that? 1.5 for MH World makes no sense in that context.

This is what threw me for a loop with these numbers, but I guess they'll be changing their forecast.

 

[Mael]

IIRC, there's been some debate as to whether XV crossed that milestone solely via physical sales. Not that there's anything wrong with getting the assist from digital, but it feels like a long time ago now that FF was a surefire million seller on the charts.

I guess FFXIV and the XIII saga really DID hurt the brand.
It feels like ages ago that a new bona fide FF surefire RPG was release if you ask me...
And the constant remaster while helping keep the brand relevant couldn't possibly help but make people feel like an old tired brand...
The quotes we got from SE saying that if XV failed, no more offline single player FF might have been even closer to the truth than we ever expected.

Huh, i presume its just this FY lol, there is no good business sense for them to pursue MH on PS4 if they don't hope that it will meet or beat 3DS sales.

There is absolutely no way that MHW will ever beat the records set by MH on 3DS in Japan.
It's not even worth trying there, MH on a handheld is Dragon Quest tier.
They're making a gamble that they can mitigate whatever loss they have in Japan with the West.
It's also about preparing the future as with the 3DS and Vita soon dying they probably expected Switch to be a failure so worst case they may end up with no platform to sell MH but mobile.
If their internals about their MH venture on mobile weren't too hot, they're probably trying to transition the market to a safer bet in their eyes.

 

[Usobuko]

Seems low.

1M for worldwide besides Japan should be viable.

 

[MetalliCabombination]

Dq gave me hope. Im gonna say it does that in japan alone.
Yes i know im being overly optimistic

 

[Empyrean Heaven]

 

[schuelma]

1M for worldwide besides Japan should be viable.

That would be a disaster

 

[Vena]

Isn't Capcom expecting to sell 10M more this fiscal year or something like that? 1.5 for MH World makes no sense in that context.

They also expect two million+ (IIRC) for RE7 this FY.

 

[Sesha]

They also expect a million+ (IIRC) for RE7 this FY.

2m, in fact.

 

[Vena]

2m, in fact.

Corrected, thank you!

But either way, nonsense.

 

[Jawmuncher]

They also expect a million+ (IIRC) for RE7 this FY.

Good Luck. RE7 ATM has slowed to a crawl even during sales. Hopefully the DLC will push numbers because aside from a new SKU or a deeper price cut can't think of anything else that will.

 

[Principate]

That would be a disaster

Most popular Japanese games this gen sell around that amount.

 

[pretty done]

Good Luck. RE7 ATM has slowed to a crawl even during sales. Hopefully the DLC will push numbers because aside from a new SKU or a deeper price cut can't think of anything else that will.

Well their sales have been pathetic. $35 is the lowest it's been, which quite frankly, isn't enough.

I liked what I played from Redbox but at this point the game is old news. Gotta be sub-20 on sales.

 

[Atheerios]

1.5M WW for the first month sounds about right.

 

[NSESN]

Dq gave me hope. Im gonna say it does that in japan alone.
Yes i know im being overly optimistic

It is already slowing down tho.

 

[Angelus Errare]

Capcom expects to sell 2mil copies of MVC:I

 

[Graphics Horse]

Well their sales have been pathetic. $35 is the lowest it's been, which quite frankly, isn't enough.

I liked what I played from Redbox but at this point the game is old news. Gotta be sub-20 on sales.

Maybe they're holding off for the eventual VR version/patch, not that that will sell millions.

 

[Skittzo0413]

I really haven't been paying much attention to MvC:I but I get the feeling that we're in a bit of a Gaf bubble regarding it. Anything Marvel related these days will sell incredibly well, at least in the US, and I think this will greatly outperform these expectations.

MH World on the other hand is a very weird one. 1.5m seems remarkably low given how hard they're trying to push it, and how long it's been in development. I wonder if they're not sorta trying to overcorrect their previous expectations that they've severely missed on and intentionally lowballing MH World.

Has Mochizuki attempted to clarify if these expectations come from Capcom or the analyst?

 

[Vena]

MH World on the other hand is a very weird one. 1.5m seems remarkably low given how hard they're trying to push it, and how long it's been in development. I wonder if they're not sorta trying to overcorrect their previous expectations that they've severely missed on and intentionally lowballing MH World.

If it launches one the last week/two weeks of March, the number makes sense. You can take such a release date as you wish, whether they rushed it to completion for the FY or if that is just coincidental.

 

[Jack The Nipper]

Could be for one market or initial sales I guess.

 

[Skittzo0413]

If it launches one the last week/two weeks of March, the number makes sense. You can take such a release date as you wish, whether they rushed it to completion for the FY or if that is just coincidental.

Well the bulk of the sales will be at launch anyway, so it would still suggest they have surprisingly low expectations for the game in general. Obviously higher than 1.5m, but I don't think many people here would expect such contraction even during the launch period.

 

[clay_ghost]

Well the bulk of the sales will be at launch anyway, so it would still suggest they have surprisingly low expectations for the game in general. Obviously higher than 1.5m, but I don't think many people here would expect such contraction even during the launch period.

There is not much contraction If you compare it to pervious consoles MH sales.

 

[Ridley327]

Well the bulk of the sales will be at launch anyway, so it would still suggest they have surprisingly low expectations for the game in general. Obviously higher than 1.5m, but I don't think many people here would expect such contraction even during the launch period.

I think it's just the realization that they have two big hurdles to overcome that don't have easy or fast solutions:

1. The game not being on a handheld in Japan
2. Having to effectively rebuild awareness for the brand in the west for themselves, since they don't have someone like Nintendo helping them out anymore

 

[Demoli]

That can't be right.

I'm a pessimist for MHW and even I think it will easily break 2m by the fiscal year.

 

[Skittzo0413]

There is not much contraction If you compare it to pervious consoles MH sales.

Right but the idea behind this has been to broaden the MH appeal. A lot of people here have rightfully questioned the idea of bringing it to stationary consoles when portability is such a huge part of what makes the series successful, but then the question becomes how does Capcom think they can broaden the appeal of the series by moving it from handhelds to consoles?

One of the answers was, well maybe they're just stupid or cocky and think it will do great just based on the PS4 install base and better visuals, but these expectations seem to run counter to that. Another answer might be that they aren't abandoning handhelds, and just want a foothold in the console sector too. That's starting to seem more likely.

I think it's just the realization that they have two big hurdles to overcome that don't have easy or fast solutions:

1. The game not being on a handheld in Japan
2. Having to effectively rebuild awareness for the brand in the west for themselves, since they don't have someone like Nintendo helping them out anymore

And again, this begs the question of why are they doing this in the first place if they expect it to sell so poorly? It's just an odd situation no matter how you look at it.

 

[MechaX]

MvC will be a weird one. It's true that the Marvel name will help it a lot, but advertising has been pretty bleak so far despite the game coming out next month. Plus, if it's trying to cater to the Injustice crowd, I would think that people are going to realize pretty quickly that it's not going to have nearly as much single player content (and probably not even multiplayer content) that usually keeps people buying NRS games, which would cut MvC's legs pretty quickly.

 

[Ridley327]

And again, this begs the question of why are they doing this in the first place if they expect it to sell so poorly? It's just an odd situation no matter how you look at it.

It needs to start somewhere, and if we're looking at it from the perspective of a maximum of having six weeks to do a number like that, I think that it would be an encouraging start. Yes, it would still be down big time from what it sold on the 3DS, but the demographics and circumstances are so different now that it can't possibly be a 1:1 comparison to begin with.

 

[NinjaCoachZ]

And again, this begs the question of why are they doing this in the first place if they expect it to sell so poorly? It's just an odd situation no matter how you look at it.

They probably started working on MH World 3-4 years ago. At that point the Switch wasn't a thing and I think they were gambling on the PS4 not floundering as badly as it is in Japan. I don't think they saw the series's big break worldwide on 3DS with 4 and Generations coming either. 4U being a New 3DS launch game in NA/EU went a long way toward giving the series a solid foothold.

Now the best they can do is hope the worldwide sales are enough to offset their lost Japanese sales, and that's a tall order. I just can't see it providing meaningful *growth* to the series. A Switch port could help the situation in Japan but it's probably too late for them to have that ready by March so it'd probably be a later updated version or something.

MvC will be a weird one. It's true that the Marvel name will help it a lot, but advertising has been pretty bleak so far despite the game coming out next month. Plus, if it's trying to cater to the Injustice crowd, I would think that people are going to realize pretty quickly that it's not going to have nearly as much single player content (and probably not even multiplayer content) that usually keeps people buying NRS games, which would cut MvC's legs pretty quickly.

Personally I don't think the Marvel name alone will be enough to bail out MVCI. Like you say, Injustice 2 is already a competitor and I think most comic fans who are interested in a superhero fighter are savvy enough to consider IJ2 more seriously. Then with kids who want a Marvel game/parents buying one for their kids there's Lego Marvel Superheroes 2. MVCI is in a weird place where I don't think kids will be all over it and more savvy players don't want it either. Even outside of GAF, the WOM is just plain toxic. It's impossible to talk about the game without the graphics or weak roster or Dragon Ball FighterZ being brought up. Even the story they're using as a big selling point doesn't seem to be driving that much interest; the story demo at E3 was a bigtime miscalculation on their part that hurt way more than it helped. Considering that SFV still hasn't broken 2m and even MVC3 barely did 2.2, I don't see MVCI meeting its goal.

 

[tuffy]

And again, this begs the question of why are they doing this in the first place if they expect it to sell so poorly? It's just an odd situation no matter how you look at it.

It might make sense if they're planning to port the game and/or its assets to a Monster Hunter game on a portable system down the line, where the series has always been more successful.

 

[WhatWeLeftBehind]

So for those doubting that 1,5 million number: do you expect MHW to sell more then that or are most of you just surprised that's the expectation for such an expensive game?

 

[Rosur2a]

at least these aren't 6 mill or something can see monster hunter easily hitting 1.5 mill MVCI I'm unsure if it will but probably depend on how it reviews and the community receive it on release.

 

[Fiendcode]

For comparison MHXX on 3DS had a 2m FY target and that was a late March Japan only launch.

Most popular Japanese games this gen sell around that amount.

MH already sold that much on 3DS. Zero western growth on PS4/XB1 would be catastrophic for Capcom given they're going to be sacrificing 2-3m Japanese sales in the platform shift. MHW will need to roughly double or triple the current western 3DS sales to make up for Japan's shortfall.

 

[Skittzo0413]

It might make sense if they're planning to port the game and/or its assets to a Monster Hunter game on a portable system down the line, where the series has always been more successful.

Yeah I would agree that this is probably the most sensible explanation at this point. When they started it Switch wasn't a thing, and for whatever reason they didn't want to add a platform during development when they learned about the Switch, so instead they might be treating it like an investment both for developing HD assets and trying to raise awareness and appeal worldwide. I could see their goal being to have the series go full multiplat after World (adding Switch to the platforms I mean).

Still I think it will surpass these expectations, though definitely depending on when it releases.

 

[Quonny]

Yeah I would agree that this is probably the most sensible explanation at this point. When they started it Switch wasn't a thing, and for whatever reason they didn't want to add a platform during development when they learned about the Switch, so instead they might be treating it like an investment both for developing HD assets and trying to raise awareness and appeal worldwide. I could see their goal being to have the series go full multiplat after World (adding Switch to the platforms I mean).

Still I think it will surpass these expectations, though definitely depending on when it releases.

This is their eventual goal, I would think. Switch/PS4/PC.

It would be easier to make a game from scratch for PS4 than it would start a game for PS4, then two years into development either scrap or compromise the product while you learn about what the Switch can do. This also allows them to release a Switch port later, with MHW2 being made from the groundwork that MHW laid out, ensuring it's a quality product on all platforms.

It's potentially a short-term sales setback for long-term gains and longevity.