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[Emperor_Uriel]

If Capcom can sustain themselves by becoming a stellar B-game/AA developer (like From Software and Platinum), then more power to them.

Chasing AAA was a mistake, and it looks like they're finally coming to terms with that.

 

[Principate]

For comparison MHXX on 3DS had a 2m FY target and that was a late March Japan only launch.


MH already sold that much on 3DS. Zero western growth on PS4/XB1 would be catastrophic for Capcom given they're going to be sacrificing 2-3m Japanese sales in the platform shift. MHW will need to roughly double or triple the current western 3DS sales to make up for Japan's shortfall.

I know but fact of the matters most popular Japanese games sell in that range to be considered a success. 3+ is a very rare and lonely range for the set of titles that inhabit that range.

 

[DeuceGamer]

Dragon Quest XI did 950,315 on the first week for the PS4 and it already hit over 1 million so far.

MH3 for Wii sold 520,000 on it's first week and it's LTD is over 1 million so far. I may have used the wrong word by saying easily but hitting 1 million is very possible for Japan.

Sure it could get to a million in Japan, but it's far from a given and I have serious doubts. Especially this fiscal year as these expectations are based on.

I still think these expectations are weird. I would have thought Capcom expected to sell way more than this to switch from handhelds to consoles.

 

[NinjaCoachZ]

If Capcom can sustain themselves by becoming a stellar B-game/AA developer (like From Software and Platinum), then more power to them.

Chasing AAA was a mistake, and it looks like they're finally coming to terms with that.

That's really the thing. Most Japanese developers/publishers this gen have settled on finding a nice, cozy spot for them to be. Platinum and FromSoft are great shouts; they know what they're good at and it's been able to get them solid partnerships and successful games. Namco Bandai has Tekken as its AAA ace, the Dragon Ball license, and plenty of niche/anime-based games that have a nice, solid base to build off of. Tecmo-Koei are in a similar place, with all their Warriors partnerships, Gust RPGs and Dead or Alive having a bankable niche, and the occasional breakout like Nioh. Square Enix have been investing in plenty of mid-tier games between their AAA releases as well.

Not every single developer needs to be an endless AAA million-selling blockbuster churner and Capcom seems like it's taken this whole generation to realize that. I think MH World and MVCI, then maaaaybe DMC5 depending on how much of a budget it gets, seem like Capcom's last big Hail Maries on that front. Especially since their smaller releases and ports are the ones that end up being the most solid successes. If MHW and MVCI both underperform then there needs to be some serious soul-searching going on there.

 

[Ex-Psych]

Why even chase solely the ps4 for MH if they have such low expectations?

Capcom. What are you doing???

 

[Principate]

Why even chase solely the ps4 for MH if they have such low expectations?

Capcom. What are you doing???

Honestly sounds a lot like what at the time seemed bat shit crazy rumour said.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

That expectation is a major low ball or the game is launching very close to the end of March. 1.5m for a game in production for 4 years off a series that did those numbers in the West alone is a joke.

 

[Emperor_Uriel]

Why even chase solely the ps4 for MH if they have such low expectations?

Capcom. What are you doing???

They're being smart.

MHW might not sell phenomenally, just like Demon's Souls didn't, but it'll serve as a positive introduction to the series and get critics in the West speaking positively about it. Let's Players will latch on, it'll get streamed on Twitch, and sales will increase due to positive word of mouth.

Then, Monster Hunter World 2 (or Ultimate) will come out in a much shorter timeframe and will suddenly be on the radar of a much wider audience.

This is how From and Namco found so much success, by building familiarity instead of putting all of their resources into an introductory game and relying on it becoming an instant hit.

 

[BitStyle]

Why even chase solely the ps4 for MH if they have such low expectations?

Capcom. What are you doing???

Capcom's outlook for the industry back when MHW started development was quite different, but yeah, they aren't in the most advantageous circumstance with the series at present. I do expect there will be another portable title out by 2019. If anything, they have at least established some more assets to utilize for the next 5 or so years.

I still imagine that the game should make the 1.5 million target, but that's quite a drop off fron the series' average. It is for this FY, though, so I wonder what this target might reflect for the release date of MHW. Should be close to the end of this FY

 

[DrROBschiz]

If you ask me those MHW predictions are conservative!

 

[Tratorn]

Another answer might be that they aren't abandoning handhelds, and just want a foothold in the console sector too. That's starting to seem more likely.

Yes, that's the idea. They won't abandon HHs, they'll just bring MH to several platforms. That'll not only broaden the appeal worldwide and get new ways for monetization, but also help to prevent oversaturation of the IP on a single platform.

 

[Neoxon]

If you ask me those MHW predictions are conservative!

To be fair, the game is western-focused, so they may not get as many Japanese sales as usual. MHW will at least get the franchise's foot in the door for the west on a larger scale than before.

 

[Vena]

They're being smart.

MHW might not sell phenomenally, just like Demon's Souls didn't, but it'll serve as a positive introduction to the series and get critics in the West speaking positively about it. Let's Players will latch on, it'll get streamed on Twitch, and sales will increase due to positive word of mouth.

Then, Monster Hunter World 2 (or Ultimate) will come out in a much shorter timeframe and will suddenly be on the radar of a much wider audience.

This is how From and Namco found so much success, by building familiarity instead of putting all of their resources into an introductory game and relying on it becoming an instant hit.

Most of this stuff has been happening for years already...?

 

[LordKano]

People need to understand that if the MH brand is dropping from a 4M seller per new entry to 1.5M-2M while significantly raising the costs, Capcom is going out of business.
Literally every single of their others IP is already declining. MH is all they have left (with Resident Evil to a certain extent).

 

[Busaiku]

They're being smart.

MHW might not sell phenomenally, just like Demon's Souls didn't, but it'll serve as a positive introduction to the series and get critics in the West speaking positively about it. Let's Players will latch on, it'll get streamed on Twitch, and sales will increase due to positive word of mouth.

Then, Monster Hunter World 2 (or Ultimate) will come out in a much shorter timeframe and will suddenly be on the radar of a much wider audience.

This is how From and Namco found so much success, by building familiarity instead of putting all of their resources into an introductory game and relying on it becoming an instant hit.

Monster Hunter is already a Dark Souls level success.

 

[Ridley327]

Monster Hunter is already a Dark Souls level success.

The WW numbers I'm sure are very comparable, but Capcom wants something that's perhaps a bit more even between the two main regions, rather than having it be so lopsided. Having ~70% of your sales coming out of a single country is not the most stable of foundations to have in this market.

 

[Salty Rice]

Functions vs Functions Infinite not gonna sell more than Monster Hunter.

 

[mas8705]

Very cautious is a good way of putting it. Mind you I'm getting Monster Hunter World when it comes out next year, and even I wonder if 1.5 mil is being too generous. That and also we have to bare in mind that this is MH's return to Console gaming as well after about six years too, to which one could ironically argue how this is a bit of a "stab in the back" to those who have been playing MH on the 3DS and how there will be no "Western Switch" releases of Monster Hunter.

All in all, I'm hopeful that MHW will sell well. MvC:I is a bit harder to say, although I feel like after a while, it probably will make its rounds too. It will definitely be a concern if MHW somehow outsells MvC:I though for a variety of reasons though.

 

[Fiendcode]

To be fair, the game is western-focused, so they may not get as many Japanese sales as usual. MHW will at least get the franchise's foot in the door for the west on a larger scale than before.

1.5m means a decline in the west too though. It's really absurdly low.

MH4U did 1.5m in the west alone. MHGen did 900k.

 

[Ridley327]

1.5m means a decline in the west too though. It's really absurdly low.

MH4U did 1.5m in the west alone. MHGen did 900k.

That's over their lifetime, which isn't as short a period of where this forecast is coming from.

I feel like the OP needs to be updated to mention that this is what they're expecting these games to sell by the end of the FY, not what they expect them to sell LTD.

 

[Fiendcode]

That's over their lifetime, which isn't as short a period of where this forecast is coming from.

I feel like the OP needs to be updated to mention that this is what they're expecting these games to sell by the end of the FY, not what they expect them to sell LTD.

MH4U passed a million in the west it's first FY and it was a mid February launch. Generations did 800k it's first quarter.

1.5m globally is absurdly low for MH5 it's first Q/FY. Which is probably why it's not called MH5 anymore.

 

[Neoxon]

That's over their lifetime, which isn't as short a period of where this forecast is coming from.

I feel like the OP needs to be updated to mention that this is what they're expecting these games to sell by the end of the FY, not what they expect them to sell LTD.

If it's by the end of the fiscal year, then those numbers sound pretty feasible for both games (especially if MvCI gets good reviews).

Another thing to consider is that the PC version of MHW is coming out later.

 

[Ridley327]

MH4U passed a million in the west it's first FY and it was a mid February launch. Generations did 800k it's first quarter.

1.5m globally is absurdly low for MH5 it's first Q/FY. Which is probably why it's not called MH5 anymore.

I'm not sure what you expect when Capcom has to basically start over again with laying down a foundation on a new platform. Sure, the diehards are going to be there no matter what, but they can't expect that everyone that bought the series on 3DS to make the jump over. It seems like a very reasonable forecast, if a bit tight for the likely time period.

 

[Fiendcode]

I'm not sure what you expect when Capcom has to basically start over again with laying down a foundation on a new platform. Sure, the diehards are going to be there no matter what, but they can't expect that everyone that bought the series on 3DS to make the jump over. It seems like a very reasonable forecast, if a bit tight for the likely time period.

I'd expect a 5th PS4/XB1 game to outsell the previous 4th one on 3DS in the west at least. At 1.5m MHW will be underselling MH4/U in every market. It's not reasonable in the least.

 

[Ridley327]

I'd expect a 5th PS4/XB1 game to outsell the previous 4th one on 3DS in the west at least. At 1.5m MHW will be underselling MH4/U in every market. It's not reasonable in the least.

It took years for Capcom to get MH where it got on the 3DS in the west, and that was with help from a first party. This stuff does not happen overnight, and I don't think it's at all a scandal to suggest that there's more to making the game a success than just dropping it on a console, even one as popular as the PS4. This is a marathon, not a sprint.

 

[Fiendcode]

It took years for Capcom to get MH where it got on the 3DS in the west, and that was with help from a first party. This stuff does not happen overnight, and I don't think it's at all a scandal to suggest that there's more to making the game a success than just dropping it on a console, even one as popular as the PS4. This is a marathon, not a sprint.

At 1.5m World probably means a decrease from Tri even in the west. Capcom is the king of channel stuffing and MH is (was?) their last remaining golden goose. It's almost unfathomable they'd expect so little from this game.

BTW how well have SFV and RE7 been doing in their marathons?

 

[WhatWeLeftBehind]

They're being smart.

MHW might not sell phenomenally, just like Demon's Souls didn't, but it'll serve as a positive introduction to the series and get critics in the West speaking positively about it. Let's Players will latch on, it'll get streamed on Twitch, and sales will increase due to positive word of mouth.

Then, Monster Hunter World 2 (or Ultimate) will come out in a much shorter timeframe and will suddenly be on the radar of a much wider audience.

This is how From and Namco found so much success, by building familiarity instead of putting all of their resources into an introductory game and relying on it becoming an instant hit.

Hey guys, here's a great way to make money.

Throw money into a moneypit, take a huge loss. That way we're sure to make money NEXT TIME we throw more money away!

 

[Gotdatmoney]

It took years for Capcom to get MH where it got on the 3DS in the west, and that was with help from a first party. This stuff does not happen overnight, and I don't think it's at all a scandal to suggest that there's more to making the game a success than just dropping it on a console, even one as popular as the PS4. This is a marathon, not a sprint.

A game on 2 consoles only matching the international sales of a 3DS version when the whole point was to grow the franchise internationally is a disaster. They could sell 1.5m units of XX on Switch if they were serious about it. 100% I expect a ground up game to sell more on the X1 and PS4 in the west than on the 3DS. The 3DS was weak in the West.

If the 1.5m projection is real it's a low ball. No way in hell do you spend 4 years on a project and project 1.5m

 

[Vena]

At 1.5m World probably means a decrease from Tri even in the west. Capcom is the king of channel stuffing and MH is (was?) their last remaining golden goose. It's almost unfathomable they'd expect so little from this game.

BTW how well have SFV and RE7 been doing in their marathons?

If it launches on March 30th, the only sales numbers you'll have *will* be whats in the channel. 1.5 million in retail isn't a small number, and wouldn't be a decline from previous console figures unless you compare FW(D) to LTD sales numbers.

Yes, it is still a major decline from portable entries but that's a different matter.

Of course, if it launches March 30th or something along those lines, you should probably ask why....

 

[Fiendcode]

If it launches on March 30th, the only sales numbers you'll have *will* be whats in the channel. 1.5 million in retail isn't a small number, and wouldn't be a decline from previous console figures unless you compare FW(D) to LTD sales numbers.

Yes, it is still a major decline from portable entries but that's a different matter.

Of course, if it launches March 30th or something along those lines, you should probably ask why....

Tri did 690k in the west during it's 1Q. It depends on how World's 1.5m is split but if Japan ends up being 900k-1m that means a western decline.

The whole point of 5/World shifting to PS4/XB1 was western growth. If it can't start out doing better than a late core Wii game then that's a pretty bad sign of things to come. Nevermind 4U's 1m in the same time frame.

 

[Emperor_Uriel]

Hey guys, here's a great way to make money.

Throw money into a moneypit, take a huge loss. That way we're sure to make money NEXT TIME we throw more money away!

Throwing money away is what Capcom did all last generation, swelling the budgets of their games to catastrophic levels in pursuit of massive and unrealistic sales goals. It was totally unsustainable and almost led to them to ruin.

They're now in a tricky spot with MH, arguably their most profitable franchise. The weak 3DS is on it's way out, the more powerful Vita is dead, and there's no guaranteed portable successor in sight. Switch is unproven, even Nintendo isn't willing to say it'll take the 3DS's place yet, so Capcom needs to cover their bases.

XX on Switch is their path forward in Japan, and will determine whether they can continue to rely on their huge domestic audience for the next 5+ years.

World is their path forward in the West, and gives them the opportunity to begin cultivating a more stable foothold abroad in the event that their success in a post-3DS Japan diminishes.

They're testing the waters, it's pretty obvious. No need to shitpost without even attempting to contribute in a meaningful way.

 

[bangbang i'm a timpani]

thats not capcom, its a shitty sellside analyst that nobody cares about.

 

[WhatWeLeftBehind]

A game on 2 consoles only matching the international sales of a 3DS version when the whole point was to grow the franchise internationally is a disaster. They could sell 1.5m units of XX on Switch if they were serious about it. 100% I expect a ground up game to sell more on the X1 and PS4 in the west than on the 3DS. The 3DS was weak in the West.

If the 1.5m projection is real it's a low ball. No way in hell do you spend 4 years on a project and project 1.5m

Monster Hunter has been available on other platforms that were stronger in the west though. But both on the Wii and on PS2 it failed to do those kinds of numbers.

Even with the active userbase of the PS4 and One combined, I don't see the market for MHW to do 1,5 million LTD let alone go above and beyond that. Considering MH had zero competition on Nintendo platforms and a big push by Nintendo, MonHun now has to compete with all the Soulslike games on PS and Xbox without that strong first party push.

 

[Aostia]

MvC predictions seems spot on
The MHW one seems low but probably lying the game is releasing near the end of the FY so probably it is a conservative number for the debut WW

 

[LKSmash]

Isn't SFV south of 2 million? Don't see how they can expect MvC to better it. I bet MH:W doubles up MvC.

 

[Neoxon]

Isn't SFV south of 2 million? Don't see how they can expect MvC to better it. I bet MH:W doubles up MvC.

MvCI has much of the content SFV lacked at launch, the strength of the Marvel brand, & an Xbox One version. Assuming that it reviews well, 2 million in 6 months is pretty reasonable (unless things go sideways at launch).

Throwing money away is what Capcom did all last generation, swelling the budgets of their games to catastrophic levels in pursuit of massive and unrealistic sales goals. It was totally unsustainable and almost led to them to ruin.

They're now in a tricky spot with MH, arguably their most profitable franchise. The weak 3DS is on it's way out, the more powerful Vita is dead, and there's no guaranteed portable successor in sight. Switch is unproven, even Nintendo isn't willing to say it'll take the 3DS's place yet, so Capcom needs to cover their bases.

XX on Switch is their path forward in Japan, and will determine whether they can continue to rely on their huge domestic audience for the next 5+ years.

World is their path forward in the West, and gives them the opportunity to begin cultivating a more stable foothold abroad in the event that their success in a post-3DS Japan diminishes.

They're testing the waters, it's pretty obvious. No need to shitpost without even attempting to contribute in a meaningful way.

The Switch is the 3DS's successor, the fact that the mainline Pokémon games are moving to the system is proof of that. Though if you mean at the time of MHW's conception, maybe you have a point.

 

[Ridley327]

MvCI has much of the content SFV lacked at launch, the strength of the Marvel brand, & an Xbox One version. Assuming that it reviews well, 2 million in 6 months is pretty reasonable (unless things go sideways at launch).

It will definitely need good reviews and player impressions prior to launch. The 77 SFV has on Metacritic still sticks out like a sore thumb to this day.

 

[Neoxon]

It will definitely need good reviews and player impressions prior to launch. The 77 SFV has on Metacritic still sticks out like a sore thumb to this day.

77 isn't even that bad. Hell, 77 on Metacritic is exactly what ARMS got.

 

[yurinka]

It depends on when these game are released and the period they cover in this prediction. MHW numbers would make sense for a day one shipment, while MVCI prediction seems too optimistic even for all its lifetime.

Maybe it's their prediction is for this FY, and the MHW release is scheduled for March 30th.

MvCI has much of the content SFV lacked at launch, the strength of the Marvel brand, & an Xbox One version. Assuming that it reviews well, 2 million in 6 months is pretty reasonable (unless things go sideways at launch).

It would make sense for a non-Capcom game. We're talking about the toxic "fan"base who try to boycott a game because doesn't like a haircut, the models of a couple of faces in a fighter, etc.

 

[Sesha]

It depends on when these game are released and the period they cover in this prediction. MHW numbers would make sense for a day one shipment, while MVCI prediction seems too optimistic even for all its lifetime.

Maybe it's their prediction is for this FY, and the MHW release is scheduled for March 30th.

It would make sense for a non-Capcom game. We're talking about the toxic "fan"base who try to boycott a game because doesn't like a haircut, the models of a couple of faces in a fighter, etc.

Citation needed.

 

[PSlayer]

When was the last time capcom said we expect 2 million copies until [insert date] and they actually got it?

 

[Ridley327]

77 isn't even that bad. Hell, 77 on Metacritic is exactly what ARMS got.

You must admit that a 77 for a brand new IP is a hell of a lot different than a 77 for the premiere fighting game series.

 

[TetraGenesis]

I see I'm not alone in suspecting MvC is gonna underperform and MH will overperform.

 

[Spieler Eins]

Why even chase solely the ps4 for MH if they have such low expectations?

Capcom. What are you doing???

Why are sales more important to you than playing Monster Hunter on good hardware finally?
Either way, they will clearly milk the new MH groundwork for years/decades to come, so there's your answer.

 

[Gunslinger]

I think mvc may reach 2 mil but I don't see monster Hunter world reaching 1.5 mil.

 

[Neoxon]

I think mvc may reach 2 mil but I don't see monster Hunter world reaching 1.5 mil.

To be fair, MHW may only have 1-2 months before the end of the fiscal year.

 

[The God]

2 million for MvCI sounds like a lot considering the game looks like butt

 

[Aostia]

To be fair, MHW may only have 1-2 months before the end of the fiscal year.

It will probably have way less than that

 

[Gotdatmoney]

Monster Hunter has been available on other platforms that were stronger in the west though. But both on the Wii and on PS2 it failed to do those kinds of numbers.

What are you talking about? MHTri's ltd is 1.8 million and the only PS2 MH game released in the west is the first title and that doesn't count for obvious reasons.

Even with the active userbase of the PS4 and One combined, I don't see the market for MHW to do 1,5 million LTD let alone go above and beyond that. Considering MH had zero competition on Nintendo platforms and a big push by Nintendo, MonHun now has to compete with all the Soulslike games on PS and Xbox without that strong first party push.

Even if it does a series low point it will still do 1.5m ltd. This is not even up for debate.

 

[Sentenza]

The second sounds a bit conservative.
With a bit of luck and released at the right moment, I could see MHW selling roughly a million even on Steam alone.