It isn't silly but I think it's unlikely. Phil Spencer said that they would wait until the next inflection point in technology to release their next console and not try to release on a predetermined schedule like what is done in the mobile device market. Also, Microsoft is trying to cut back on their devices and cloud is where the most opportunity is for them. Making new consoles is risky because they may not see a return on investment. It'll be more profitable for them to sell Xbox as a cloud infrastructure as a service platform that can stream games you buy off Windows marketplace to any device. That's where Microsoft should be taking things. Releasing more physical hardware is an outdated way of thinking that will frustrate consumers.
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VentureBeat: Microsofts Xbox and gaming sales decline 9%
- Thread starter Rymuth
- Start date
MilkyJoe
Member
Your posts just get more and more bizarre.
To be fair, he's not gonna come out and say "and a new console every 2 years!" even if that was in their plan.
But I don't think it'll be called Xbox 4 anyways, it's gotta have Xbox One in its name because of the game cases have Xbox One otherwise that's just gonna confuse people (parents etc). Xbox One 4K maybe, not Xbox 4. Saying that I wouldn't be surprised if they start rebranding cases to just say "Xbox" since generations are done by the sounds of it.
Releasing physical hardware will frustrate consumers? What twilight am I living in?
Copying the cell phone release model in the console market will frustrate consumers is what I meant to say.
Holy crap.
Sony representatives have commented that they believe Apple's approach to announcing a shortly before availability is something they'd like to emulate. So I think it's not at all surprising that this would be a situation where they'd do so.
There's also a chance Scorpio will be delayed. I don't think either of us are in a position to handicap either possibility. It seems reasonable to believe there will be a year-long gap between their release dates.
I said 3 years from next year and now it's like a cell phone?
You do realize that phones come out with new one every year and some even more than that.
It's a more frequent release schedule that is pre-determined, just like cell phones. It doesn't make sense for Microsoft to say we are going to come out with a console every 3 years. It costs too much money for them to develop and bring new hardware to market.
I never stated that MS would come out and say that. I said this is what I think will happen. And for further clarity I think the difference in power between what I think 4 and 5 will be the same difference between xbo and 4. It would be an upgrade. Not a new gen but can play both xbo/4 games and xb4 can xb5 games.
So if we get upgrades like iphone/android for sony and MS, the wow effect would be gone in gfx term. The steps would be so small that you don't even noticed enough anymore. Most important detail for both companies. Wonder what would happen with the hardware sales.
Uhm, yea but they aren't going to be that small as those updates are every year. Not the same thing, nor am I saying that it will be ever 3 years we will have an update to our consoles. I just stated what I think will happen in opposite of what the other user stated with ps5 coming out in 2018.
I agree, sony wouldn't go for a ps5 before 2019. If they planning to release one in 2019, it will just be another upgrade. I doubt they can support both (this and their vr). It probably will get just default games with vr support. It's otherwise too much to handle.
For MS is it different story. They have enough recourses and can support hololens, but rather for pc. For xbox, there is no single reason for not going for a pcbox. They can see that the current xbox isn't working for them like it should be. And bringing 3rd party like mine craft would do them good.
Thinking on this more I think this could still work out well. Offering competing stores like GOG, Steam, etc. would guarantee a big (the biggest?) selection of software and be a huge differentiator from what Sony and Nintendo are doing.
Microsoft could still make a lot of money from exclusive games sold from the Windows Store, sales from people who choose the Windows Store version of new games (I believe Windows Store will be more competitive over time), hardware and accessories, disc sales royalties, and I think they could even make the Gold sub work (keep reading).
They could change the Gold subscription to something like EA Access, where it's $5 per month (maybe more?) and you get access to a set of games that stay in the vault, early access to try new games, discounts on new purchases, plus monthly offers. If they had the right mix of games available that way then I think it'd be a no brainer for a lot of people to keep a subscription.
The Artisan
Member
well apple also releases shit every fuckin year. i thought sony said the Ps4 isn't supposed to turn into a yearly thing. if it's only every 3 years, which is something appleheads aren't used to, i don't know if it'll pan out the same way
you have a point, but if they plan on releasing it in Q4 next year, that gives them a whole year & half of r&d, it's not as likely that it'll be delayed as the Ps4K imo. but who knows, you know.
slavesnyder
Member
If scorpio is high-priced and selling only to an exclusive circle of gamers, MS would make profit on hardware. But would 3rd parties be interested to go the extra mile for this small base after the honeymoon?
Bitch Pudding
Member
If you really think that MS will allow competing storefronts on a dedicated XBOX device you haven't paid any attention within the last 30 years how MS deals with competitors.
Furthermore, why on earth would one of the biggest companies on it focus on a small niche market within a market which for all we know is declining? If that's what they do, they might as well launch a high-end Win10 smartphone for business people while they are at it.
I've been paying attention to what they've been doing for the last 2 years since Nadella took over and how they've embraced more competitive offerings with partnerships, particularly with their Office and Azure businesses.
If they tried to cut ties with Xbox One next year & start all over while PS4/Neo has a user base of 60 million they would die where they stand & devs would go exclusive to PS4 & not waste money trying to make games for a beast of a console that will have less than a 10 million user base.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Given that Sony wants to sell another 20mn units within their current financial year, we are indeed talking about an install base of close to 70mn units once Scorpio launches. PS will continue to set the pace in the forseeable future, and Neo ist going to set the benchmark for those additional bells and whistles we all are hoping for.
I should clarify, In my book the Scorpio 2 would be the upgraded version of the Xbox two. I think MS' family paradigm will be as follows:
Xbox One family:
Xbox One
Xbox One S
Xbox One Scorpio (code name)
Xbox Two family:
Xbox One Scorpio (code name)
Xbox Two
Xbox Two Scorpio (code name)
Xbox 3 family:
Xbox two Scorpio
Etc
Etc
The last entry into each family, will be the first entry into successive families... If we are still doing consoles this far into the future.
I think the idea is that developers will target the Xbox one OG, until it's time for a generational shift. Until then Scorpio would just see the benefits of games with dynamic scaling. Years later when Scorpio becomes the base model Xbox, it will have already have a decent enough installed base to target directly.
wapplew
Member
It make too much sense for them not to do it.
Talk about unification, make Xbox a PC box is the ultimate unification MS can ever dream of. Dev no need to make another version, they can sell games on their own store, MS can stop forcing UWA on our throat.
Not to mention, the dream BC of all BC, almost the entire library from Atari, NES, arcade, Wii, PS2 are available on that box. Xbox will have the best lineup of all history.
Yea, it does make sense for them to not do it. The reason why they can sell Windows OS to manufacturers is because they get money from selling the OS. Windows has over a billion users across their OSes. Even if all console gamers flock to Xbox...it would still only be around 100 mill and that would be a one time fee to MS...not continual...which is what they want. So this dream scenario that people keep coming up with won't work unless it was UWA through the Windows Store only. Like I said before, how would it be any different than what we have right now with PCs. The only thing that would make sense for MS is letting any user have an "Xbox mode" like Steam to have that UI.
Khalifa Jayy
Banned
Relevant, and not sure if posted... But worthy of its own thread:
Xbox One has a new price of $249
Ignore if posted and discussed.
Xbox One has a new price of $249
Ignore if posted and discussed.
ethomaz
Banned
About the Scorpio price my take...
Xbone's APU ~363mm2
RX 480 ~232mm2
While I don't believe Scorpio will use RX 480 chip in the GPU part due power drawn and heat it is possible they will choose more CUs clocked way lower to avoid these same issues found in RX 480. At 1000Mhz a Polaris chip needs 48CUs (3072SPs) to reach these theoretical 6TFs.
While the die size of course don't scale proportionally with CUs it is close to that and we can draw a estimate size of die for Scorpio's APU. ~310mm2 is my estimate for the GPU part of Scorpio's APU. Add the CPU part and we can work with a APU a bit bigger than original Xbone but not so much... ~380mm2.
Said that I can say the minimum price for Scorpio without MS lose money per unit with a APU a bit expensive than original Xbone...
$449
I can see MS taking some lose from the costs... $399 but I can see they going to profit with $499.
My point is Scorpio will be in 2017 a bit more expensive to produce than Xbone in 2013.
Edit - Just to be clear the cost of the wafer barely have any change from 2013 to 2017... what make a chip more or less expensive is the size that allow have more or less units per wafer... a bigger chip will cost more while a smaller one will cost less.
Xbone's APU ~363mm2
RX 480 ~232mm2
While I don't believe Scorpio will use RX 480 chip in the GPU part due power drawn and heat it is possible they will choose more CUs clocked way lower to avoid these same issues found in RX 480. At 1000Mhz a Polaris chip needs 48CUs (3072SPs) to reach these theoretical 6TFs.
While the die size of course don't scale proportionally with CUs it is close to that and we can draw a estimate size of die for Scorpio's APU. ~310mm2 is my estimate for the GPU part of Scorpio's APU. Add the CPU part and we can work with a APU a bit bigger than original Xbone but not so much... ~380mm2.
Said that I can say the minimum price for Scorpio without MS lose money per unit with a APU a bit expensive than original Xbone...
$449
I can see MS taking some lose from the costs... $399 but I can see they going to profit with $499.
My point is Scorpio will be in 2017 a bit more expensive to produce than Xbone in 2013.
Edit - Just to be clear the cost of the wafer barely have any change from 2013 to 2017... what make a chip more or less expensive is the size that allow have more or less units per wafer... a bigger chip will cost more while a smaller one will cost less.
MilkyJoe
Member
The Kinect cost as much as the console to make, so they might have some wriggle room...
Omnistalgic
Member
Just came to say Ill be down for an official PC called Xbox.
No room in the house for two gaming machines anymore, I just dont have the time to take full advantage of one let alone 2 with such similar libraries.
No room in the house for two gaming machines anymore, I just dont have the time to take full advantage of one let alone 2 with such similar libraries.
Citation? Given that when they unbundled it the console was selling for $399 and the Kinect for $150, I think that's clearly inaccurate. Were they making a killing on the console? Taking a bath on Kinect?
Given it was announced with literally nothing to show and there's no indication any devs have gotten kits for it yet I'd be willing to bet 'Scorpio' misses 2017.
Third price cut in 2 months? Damn... I don't want to say 'fire sale', but...
Third price cut in 2 months? Damn... I don't want to say 'fire sale', but...
Why not go the other way?
A console-like box called a "Windows 10-Box" or whatever. MS store, obviously.
That sounds dubious. Source?
E: According to IHS the Xbox One combined cost was $471 and the console itself (not including the Kinect, the controller or anything else) cost $322.
ethomaz
Banned
I didn't use Kinect in my guesses... $399 was the Xbone price I used.
anothertech
Member
Much more likely:
2013-Xbox One
2013-Playstation 4
2016-Playstation 4.5
2017-Xbox One.5
2019-Playstation 5
2020-Xbox 4
I mean, Phil wouldn't be telling us there's no exclusives on the thing if its supposed to be the next gen of Xbox. Just imo.
LordRaptor
Member
MS (and Sony) are telling people there will never be exclusives on their upcoming more powerful hardware because of the Osborne Effect.
I think it's pretty naive to not expect titles making use of that extra power.
It's just a naming scheme imo. I think it would be wise for them to just go to 4 with the next one. Or even name it Xbox 4K. Then the next xbox would be called Xbox 5, right there with PS5.
MilkyJoe
Member
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...s-almost-as-much-as-xbox-one-to-make-says-dev
Well xBone minus the Kinect would have cost a lot less than that to make.
ethomaz
Banned
It is really a hard call to believe.
PS4 is cheaper to produce than Xbone because the APU is small and less complex and Sony sold it at launch with little to no profit at $399.
Xbone without Kinect was sold at $399 and Kinect alone was sold at $150... MS didn't have profit on Xbone but I believe Kinect was being sold at profit.
There is no evidence to think the opposite.
BTW your article is based in somebody that says to be a Xbone developer in Reddit... this is the same than non-proof.
serversurfer
Member
lol Kinect 2 cost $75 to build at launch.
~$396, so not "a lot" less, plus you gotta factor in shipping the extra-large boxes and stuff.
Yep, it's pretty short sighted to think there won't be exclusive games that take advantage of a system at least 4x as powerful as its predecessor. Maybe not in the first year, but by year two of Scorpio I doubt if many games (besides the typical Madden/COD) will be dual releases.
anothertech
Member
Ah I see, just for naming scheme then. That actually makes sense. To ditch the whole 'xbone' naming scheme would be smart I agree.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Year 2 is being extremely generous if this were to happen. It is called install base. That will be the determining factor.
You can also 'still take advantage of dat power' with the both version on the disc. Just like the PC, developers build to scale, thus there will be higher end assets at their disposal. That would be more realistic by 'year 2', than cutting the Xbox One or PS4 cord in that timeframe (which I still do not think will ever happen until the consoles after Neo/Scorpio, if there are any that is for either camp).
1. Overpriced
2. Linux
3. Multiple configs instead of ONE base config.
GEE, I WONDER WHY THEY FAILED!
LordRaptor
Member
Early adopters of more expensive SKUs are going to demand bells and whistles to justify their purchase, third parties are going to want to flex their muscles and not be tied down to lower spec requirements.
I don't see anything other than the "Man, fuck crossgen" attitudes we saw at the beginning of this hardware cycle.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
I will add an important one as well.
4. Little to no advertising, etc..
A lot of people on here did not even know they 'officially released', lol. Here of all places where people fish for leaks, try to get the know of the know about things coming out soon or in the distant future. I see it all the time, people in a thread whenever a Steam Machine is mentioned, "they officially released?", "thought we were still waiting for them!"
The unexpected install base, and low sales on the previous gen curated the "Man, fuck crossgen" attitude. Remember, the publishers are still pulling the strings ultimately more often than not.
But this is also different...
This will be the same disc... there will be no room to say, "Man. fuck crossgen", especially when the platform license holder mandates it.
They can still 'pump up the volume' of graphics with the Neo/Scorpio versions, as they do with the PC already. And the first party will still shine, regardless.
MilkyJoe
Member
Year 2 might be stretching it, I'll give you that. Also I should of clarified my post was aimed only at Scorpio.
Scorpio has a much wider power gap from Xbone than Neo -> PS4. Scorpio actually has a chance of building an install base that competes with xbones..I really can't see that happening with Neo.
serversurfer
Member
$75.00
http://press.ihs.com/press-release/...rdware-cost-comes-below-retail-price-ihs-tear
"Some guy"? Who are you going to trust over IHS? =/
dragonelite
Member
You also need to factor in R&D, software api design and development.