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[Smiles and Cries]

I wonder how Moana will do

I loved it

 

[kswiston]

I'll gladly steal your car!

The insurance payout is probably worth more than the car at this point, so go nuts!

 

[vinnygambini]

Don't worry I'm picking up the slack by not only going on the cheap weekend but sneaking into a movie afterward

C R I M I N A L

 

[Schlorgan]

I'll probably go see Assassin's Creed in the theater at least once. It looks like it'll at least have some good stunt work.

 

[kswiston]

Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Moana - $21.8M - $47M total
2) Fantastic Beasts - $18.6M - $130M total
3) Doctor Strange - $5.4M - $197M total
4) Allied - $4.9M - $10M total
5) Arrival - $4.5M - $56M total
6) Trolls - $4.2M - $129M total
7) Almost Christmas - $2.3M - $31M total
8) Bad Santa 2 - $2.3M - $5M total
9) Hacksaw Ridge - $2.2M - $49M total

Moana is more front loaded than Frozen was. Expect an $80M 5-day. I'd also guess that the total will be more in line with Big Hero 6 than Zootopia or Frozen. We'll have to wait and see though.

Fantastic Beasts is turning out to not be font loaded. I am not convinced that it will manage a 3x opening weekend multiplier (around $225M), but it will probably be pretty close.

 

[Slayven]

Trying to think of a good pun for Moana beating Harry potter

 

[milanbaros]

Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Moana - $21.8M - $47M total
2) Fantastic Beasts - $18.6M - $130M total
3) Doctor Strange - $5.4M - $197M total
4) Allied - $4.9M - $10M total
5) Arrival - $4.5M - $56M total
6) Trolls - $4.2M - $129M total
7) Almost Christmas - $2.3M - $31M total
8) Bad Santa 2 - $2.3M - $5M total
9) Hacksaw Ridge - $2.2M - $49M total

Moana is more frontloaded than Frozen was. Expect an $80M 5-day. I'd also guess that the total will be more in line with Big Hero 6 than Zootopia or Frozen. We'll have to wait and see though.

Great for Strange, Beasts and Arrival.

 

[kswiston]

Great for Strange, Beasts and Arrival.

Thor The Dark World was sitting at $180M domestic at the same point, coming off a $4.48M Black Friday.

After Sunday, Doctor Strange would hit $225M domestic if it simply made the same as Thor 2 did post Thanksgiving Weekend.

Anything over $233M domestic beats Deadpool for the best superhero legs of the year.

 

[Penguin]

Going back a page, I've seen way too many video game adaptions, I think enough to make me cynical of seeing any of them in theaters really.

And AssCreed seems to be focused on the element of the game most people just wanna get through as quickly as possible.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Thor The Dark World was sitting at $180M domestic at the same point, coming off a $4.48M Black Friday.

After Sunday, Doctor Strange would hit $225M domestic if it simply made the same as Thor 2 did post Thanksgiving Weekend.

Anything over $233M domestic beats Deadpool for the best superhero legs of the year.

Impressive if it does that. Deadpool had the benefit of having that monstrous opening weekend too get the final gross higher. It is still impressive how well that film did considering the rating and budget.

 

[FTF]

Trying to think of a good pun for Moana beating Harry potter

Moana's fantastic opening bests beasts.
Rock crushes scisserin, Disney no stranger to being #1.

 

[Slayven]

Moana's fantastic opening bests beasts.
Rock crushes scisserin, Disney no stranger to being #1.

I was thinking like Moana slays white hippogriff or something

 

[BumRush]

Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Moana - $21.8M - $47M total
2) Fantastic Beasts - $18.6M - $130M total
3) Doctor Strange - $5.4M - $197M total
4) Allied - $4.9M - $10M total
5) Arrival - $4.5M - $56M total
6) Trolls - $4.2M - $129M total
7) Almost Christmas - $2.3M - $31M total
8) Bad Santa 2 - $2.3M - $5M total
9) Hacksaw Ridge - $2.2M - $49M total

Moana is more front loaded than Frozen was. Expect an $80M 5-day. I'd also guess that the total will be more in line with Big Hero 6 than Zootopia or Frozen. We'll have to wait and see though.

Fantastic Beasts is turning out to not be font loaded. I am not convinced that it will manage a 3x opening weekend multiplier (around $225M), but it will probably be pretty close.

Good start for Moana, and nice to see Beasts and Strange holding pretty well.

 

[kswiston]

Fantastic Beasts is having a good weekend overseas as well. China opened to $11M yesterday, and might end up close to $40M for the weekend. Japan has a really strong opening holiday, and seems to be heading to a decent first weekend.

Fantastic Beasts was sitting at $357M Worldwide as of Friday. It should end up somewhere between $435-450M worldwide by the end of this weekend.

 

[milanbaros]

Fantastic Beasts is having a good weekend overseas as well. China opened to $11M yesterday, and might end up close to $40M for the weekend. Japan has a really strong opening holiday, and seems to be heading to a decent first weekend.

Fantastic Beasts was sitting at $357M Worldwide as of Friday. It should end up somewhere between $435-450M worldwide by the end of this weekend.

What do you think was the internal bar for success? Whatever it was, think they must be happy.

 

[Raxus]

Moana's fantastic opening bests beasts.
Rock crushes scisserin, Disney no stranger to being #1.

Surprised nobody went with the obvious. "Disney loves being Shiny. Beasts is a beast."

 

[kswiston]

What do you think was the internal bar for success? Whatever it was, think they must be happy.

It's always hard to know how realistic movie execs are going to be with their expectations (Sony expected ASM2 to have a shot at taking the franchise into the $1B+ club), but I can't imagine most sane people being disappointed with its run. $750M +/- $50M depending on legs overseas is a pretty solid base to work with. Especially if the next film starts to tie in more closely with Potter lore people actually care about.

The Domestic total is in the range I have been seeing from analysts for months, with the opening weekend a bit lower and the subsequent legs a bit better.

 

[milanbaros]

It's always hard to know how realistic movie execs are going to be with their expectations (Sony expected ASM2 to have a shot at taking the franchise into the $1B+ club), but I can't imagine most sane people being disappointed with its run. $750M +/- $50M depending on legs overseas is a pretty solid base to work with. Especially if the next film starts to tie in more closely with Potter lore people actually care about.

The Domestic total is in the range I have been seeing from analysts for months, with the opening weekend a bit lower and the subsequent legs a bit better.

Thanks. I have to agree. They would probably take the legs and reviews over a bigger gross or opening weekend.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

It's always hard to know how realistic movie execs are going to be with their expectations (Sony expected ASM2 to have a shot at taking the franchise into the $1B+ club), but I can't imagine most sane people being disappointed with its run. $750M +/- $50M depending on legs overseas is a pretty solid base to work with. Especially if the next film starts to tie in more closely with Potter lore people actually care about.

The Domestic total is in the range I have been seeing from analysts for months, with the opening weekend a bit lower and the subsequent legs a bit better.

I'm guessing $275MM domestic and $800MM WW for FB. Too optimistic?

 

[kswiston]

I'm guessing $275MM domestic and $800MM WW for FB. Too optimistic?

Yes for domestic. This week might be fooling you, but the weekdays next week will be down 70-85% depending on the day. A 60% drop next weekend is probably about the best case scenario as well. Thanksgiving week is majorly inflated.

Fantastic Beasts is just shy of $5M ahead of where Doctor Strange was on its second Friday, but things will quickly begin to return to normal starting today. Fantastic Beasts' second Sat-Sun gross will likely be about even or a little less than Doctor Strange's second Sat-Sun (with Sunday definitely being less). The $4-5M lead will be gone within the next 10 days, with Doctor Strange pulling ahead by several million before the X-Mas Holidays.

Given that Doctor Strange is likely to end up somewhere between $230-245M domestic, I'd say that $230-235M is about the best case scenario for Fantastic Beasts.

I suppose $525M could happen overseas. It depends on holds.

 

[kswiston]

Weekend Studio Estimates:

1) Moana - $55.5M - $81M total
2) Fantastic Beasts - $46.1M - $156M total
3) Doctor Strange - $13.4M - $205M total

 

[Penguin]

Really good hold for Fantastic Beasts,wonder if Potter fans were holding out to see if it was worth checking out before seeing it.