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WSJ: Nintendo now to manufacture 16 million Switch consoles next FY, up from 8m

KahooTs

Member
The comparisons to the Wii U, I think the pertinent question is if that's the right comparison to be making or if it should be to the 3DS.
 
That would explain the confidence to up the shipment to 16 million (that & the rumored Smash 4 port). I personally would have increased it to 12 million, but I'd be inclined to agree with Nintendo's choice if Pokémon Stars is an actual thing.

Plus a one-two punch of Pokémon & another major Nintendo IP isn't entirely unheard of (Ex: Smash 4-Wii U & OR/AS back in 2014).

Imagine all of that combined with a temporary Black Friday price dip, like the $99 New 3DS this past year. So much easy money for Nintendo.
 

Elios83

Member
I don't think they have enough elements to make such a bold revision with only two weeks of market feedback.
What are they going to do if sales slow down? They halve the forecast again?
But let's see when they announce their forecast officially.
 
You've got it backwards. Nintendo didn't wait until they knew for sure it was going to be a hit and then decide to figure out how to double production. Any competent business will have any number of plans in varying degrees of preparedness depending on what they believe to be likely. They also don't slavishly adhere to a business plan if circumstances change. The initial production number was likely contracted with some amount of leeway making it possible to increase or decrease production depending on launch. The drawback here is that Nintendo is leaving some money on the table by not having a larger initial shipment. Now, whether or not they believe scarcity is good for business like some people like to say, I have no idea.

Interesting, thank you for this explanation!
 

Kthulhu

Member
bu bu bu it's shitty hardware.

So happy to see it doing so well. The Switch has been the most exciting console in years.

Hardware has never mattered, the PS4 being the best selling system this gen is an anomaly.

(I know that wasn't your point, but I figured I'd point it out anyway.)

Really looking forward to seeing how this all plays out. Fingers crossed for something interesting gets announced at E3. I personally think that all of the Switch's major titles for this year have already been announced. I predict E3 will focus on 3rd parties, indies, 2018+ games, and DLC.
 
This is pretty telling, as this points to much greater demand than Nintendo expected and shows how confident they are. They must have some heavy hitters lined up in the software front that aren't announced yet.
 

jdstorm

Banned
Pokemon, Smash and Retro coming this year.(Hopefully) Id imagine they probably expect 12M ish sales and then a nice stockpile.
 

Neoxon

Junior Member
16 million is a crazy amount of units, and they're really going to need their first party titles to hit hard to keep that demand there over the next few months. They really need Splatoon 2 and ARMS to kick ass to carry over the summer doldrums and into the Fall/Holiday where their lineup could potentially be incredible.

For Holiday, I don't have doubts it'll be a big ticket item. If Pokemon Stars and Smash for Switch alongside Mario Odyssey hit this Holiday, they can definitely do it. The prospect of a handheld Skyrim and NBA 2K should also help for that big holiday push. A small Black Friday discount will probably happen too. By this time next year this system could seriously have a monster of a lineup, both already out and on the way.
I do think that it's possible for Mario & Pokémon (if Eurogamer's on the money) to launch together, but I feel like Smash 4 Deluxe (if it's a thing) could come out in October. I'm basically imagining the rest of 2017 going like this...
  • April: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
  • May: ARMS
  • June or July: Splatoon 2
  • September: Fire Emblem Warriors
  • October: Smash 4 Deluxe*
  • November: Super Mario Odyssey & Pokémon Stars*
  • December: Xenoblade 2**
* = If the rumors are true
** = If it doesn't get delayed
 

random25

Member
The comparisons to the Wii U, I think the pertinent question is if that's the right comparison to be making or if it should be to the 3DS.

The software aligns more with Wii U than the 3DS, and Nintendo has been marketing this as a home console that you can take anywhere. So the comparison to the Wii U first is well suited.

The 3DS comparisons will come once it gets the software that the 3DS/DS/GB gets, like a mainline Pokemon or a new MonHun.
 

Neoxon

Junior Member
The software aligns more with Wii U than the 3DS, and Nintendo has been marketing this as a home console that you can take anywhere. So the comparison to the Wii U first is well suited.

The 3DS comparisons will come once it gets the software that the 3DS/DS/GB gets, like a mainline Pokemon or a new MonHun.
I mean, Fire Emblem is jumping ship & Pokémon is rumored to be doing the same. It's only a matter of time before Monster Hunter jumps on the Switch bandwagon (though I feel like MH5 may be a Switch/PS4 release to make the most of the HD assets).

In short, wait until E3. Or in the case of Pokémon, sometime this spring (as TPC tends to do dedicated Directs for reveals).
 
The comparisons to the Wii U, I think the pertinent question is if that's the right comparison to be making or if it should be to the 3DS.

Yup. As a portable it already has more appeal than simply a home console. That aspect more than its home use will be right drives sales.
 

ultrazilla

Gold Member
Hoping it continues to sell well so it'll entice third parties to come out and support the system if they're on the fence(EA). With almost 2 million sold already, they'll have some great P.R. going into E3 in 3 short months.
 

Cipherr

Member
Just give me the next mainline Mario Kart entry. I had so much fucking fun last gen playing MK8 online. It was my literal Game of the Generation. I need a new entry with MOAR stuff, MOAR tracks and everything that goes with it.
 

Neoxon

Junior Member
Just give me the next mainline Mario Kart entry. I had so much fucking fun last gen playing MK8 online. It was my literal Game of the Generation. I need a new entry with MOAR stuff, MOAR tracks and everything that goes with it.
It's honestly a bit too soon for Mario Kart 9, considering that the dev team is probably putting the finishing touches on ARMS right now (that plus Mario Kart 8 Deluxe). That's not even mentioning the possibility of DLC for ARMS or MK8D.
 

Lingitiz

Member
I do think that it's possible for Mario & Pokémon (if Eurogamer's on the money) to launch together, but I feel like Smash 4 Deluxe (if it's a thing) could come out in October. I'm basically imagining the rest of 2017 going like this...
  • April: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
  • May: ARMS
  • June or July: Splatoon 2
  • September: Fire Emblem Warriors
  • October: Smash 4 Deluxe*
  • November: Super Mario Odyssey & Pokémon Stars*
  • December: Xenoblade 2**
* = If the rumors are true
** = If it doesn't get delayed

That's a very realistic lineup, although I still think Xenoblade 2 will release in Japan this year and make the US in February/March 2018. Either way I still think that's a great year one lineup when you account the few third parties that will be around and the nice batch of indies on the system. Zelda DLC 2 (the big one) will be out in Holiday too.

E3 will be a really interesting time this year. We'll hopefully see what Retro's been up to. Maybe we'll get a look at Fire Emblem Switch. There's a lot of teams traditionally working on handhelds that we'll see working on new games for the system. I think they'll have a ton of momentum coming out of this year.
 
Seems overly ambitious. Demand is outstripping supply so far but that won't last for long (and in many markets we've already reach that point). I think everyone agrees the switch could be selling more right now with more supply but that doesn't mean Nintendo need to produce that many.

I feel like they must have a few aces up their sleeve to be that confident. If they pull it off then the switch will have surpassed even the most optimistic of predictions and will be a return to form for Nintendo. I'm not sold yet.
 

Mrbob

Member
Brace yourselves Pokemon is coming for doubling production.

Switch is a cool hybrid device, hope it does well. It's the WiiU device I wanted.
 

RM8

Member
The comparisons to the Wii U, I think the pertinent question is if that's the right comparison to be making or if it should be to the 3DS.
This is marketed as a home console, and 3DS was never $300. I still think we'll see another handheld from Nintendo (like a Switch Mini or something along those lines).
 

random25

Member
I mean, Fire Emblem is jumping ship & Pokémon is rumored to be doing the same. It's only a matter of time before Monster Hunter jumps on the Switch bandwagon (though I feel like MH5 may be a Switch/PS4 release to make the most of the HD assets).

In short, wait until E3. Or in the case of Pokémon, sometime this spring (as TPC tends to do dedicated Directs for reveals).

For now. Just wait until E3 (let a man dream)

That's what I'm saying lol.

As of right now, the current 1st party software lineup announced are basically was or what would have been Wii U games had it been successful. We'll just have to wait for confirmation of the usual handheld-only franchises coming to the Switch. The new Fire Emblem is a start.
 

jholmes

Member
I just do not understand what is going on with this industry. Why didn't Nintendo try giving this much of a shit when they made the Wii U?
 
Mario and Pokemon for the holiday season will blow this thing wide open.

Cash money for Nintendo. Can't wait to see what else they have in store for us! The Switch has been an amazing product for me so far! :)
 
I took my Switch to work and during my break one of my coworkers decided she was going to go out and get one but I had to remind her that there are none in stock. People you wouldn't expect are getting excited for the system which is great. Now they need to release lots and lots of games for it



I just do not understand what is going on with this industry. Why didn't Nintendo try giving this much of a shit when they made the Wii U?

"Nintendo is Doomed" is a meme but they really need The Switch to sell. Also, it's hardware worth giving a shit about.
 

KahooTs

Member
The software aligns more with Wii U than the 3DS, and Nintendo has been marketing this as a home console that you can take anywhere. So the comparison to the Wii U first is well suited.

The 3DS comparisons will come once it gets the software that the 3DS/DS/GB gets, like a mainline Pokemon or a new MonHun.

But I don't think it's Nintendo's decision to make, by design. I think they hedged their bets, hoped that the system would be seen and bought as a pure hybrid, while at the same time talked it up as a console and kept back their handheld IPs in case the market decided it wasn't a suitable handheld system and the demand was Wii U like, as then they still had the option to release a dedicated handheld successor to the 3DS.

It might be that they've decided, based on its initial performance, that this is it.
 

random25

Member
I just do not understand what is going on with this industry. Why didn't Nintendo try giving this much of a shit when they made the Wii U?

I believe they made a forecast that the Wii U to sell about 10 million on its first year. And yeah we knew what happened after that.
 

ArtHands

Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
Man, I just don't know how anything works. How could any information gained in the past few weeks lead to DOUBLING the amount of units they were planning to make?

Was the inital 8 million there just to be there to make sure it wasn't a complete bust? Were they always planning to up the number?

Maybe they inked some major deals behind the scene that's going to sell more systems?
 
Switch is definitely going to outsell WiiU, right? At this point, GCN numbers once all it's said and done would be pretty okay.

It has to sell their entire production run this year and half of next year's to outsell the Wii U. Not even in that time frame, just do it ever.
 

Sandfox

Member
The software aligns more with Wii U than the 3DS, and Nintendo has been marketing this as a home console that you can take anywhere. So the comparison to the Wii U first is well suited.

The 3DS comparisons will come once it gets the software that the 3DS/DS/GB gets, like a mainline Pokemon or a new MonHun.

If anything I would say the software aligns more with the Gamecube or the Wii than the Wii U..
 

Bluth54

Member
Do we have any indication of how this thing is selling?

It seems to be selling pretty well but that's to be expected for a system launch with a highly anticipated game. How well it sells over the next year and how easy it is to find on store shelves will of course be the real test - just like with any system.
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
Anecdotally, my lapsed gamer friend ( since ps2) bought a Fucking switch for Zelda. Never would have happened for wiiu, or even wii or GameCube. The hardware itself is somewhat desirable.

Third parties gonna leave money on the table again?
 

jholmes

Member
"Nintendo is Doomed" is a meme but they really need The Switch to sell. Also, it's hardware worth giving a shit about.

I mean, I gave a shit about it, and the controllers worked to boot.

Maybe I'm just bitter that Nintendo keeps doing this scorched earth thing with its consoles and that's blinding me here.
 
If anything I would say the software aligns more with the Gamecube or the Wii than the Wii U..

Feels like the Wii U right now. Hopefully they bring over Kirby, Pokémon, and other handheld games. They have big games coming out for it this year but we saw this with the Wii U where they'd release a big game followed by months of drought cause there were no third parties


I mean, I gave a shit about it, and the controllers worked to boot.

Maybe I'm just bitter that Nintendo keeps doing this scorched earth thing with its consoles and that's blinding me here.

Seems like people outside of their core audience seem to like it. At least from my experience when they actually see it
 

120v

Member
i think they just want to cover their bases,100% insure shortages can't be an issue. sure its overly bullish but why take chances.
 
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