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WSJ: Nintendo now to manufacture 16 million Switch consoles next FY, up from 8m

Davey Cakes

Member
I feel like I WILL eventually get one. Maybe even this year in wave 2 or wave 3. Hopefully it won't be too much of a hassle. I'm expecting the holidays to be messy, of course, so it's a matter of deciding to act before or after the release of Mario Odyssey.

In any case, I'm glad that Nintendo is showing some confidence here.
 

Celine

Member
A bit different in the u.s. and Europe though when the genesis was winning because of games until sega sloped up that u.s. lead.

b9Br4QO.png

For more charts:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1059657&page=1
 

Celine

Member
This doesn't actually disprove my post.
It's shipment data from the manufacturers for markets outside Japan through fiscal years (America, Europe and so on).
Sell-through for that time period was too unreliable to attest who was "winning" and when (for example I'm referring about NPD and the US market).
 

NolbertoS

Member
Good on Nintendo. Switch off to a rock solid start. Might make Sony and MS rethink their portable plans, if they have any. Glad Nintendo is selling hotcakes again
 

ArtHands

Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
Good on Nintendo. Switch off to a rock solid start. Might make Sony and MS rethink their portable plans, if they have any. Glad Nintendo is selling hotcakes again

Sony got burned twice heavily in the portable industry and Microsoft has got no interest in that, so I doubt they will rethink their plans.
 
Good on Nintendo. Switch off to a rock solid start. Might make Sony and MS rethink their portable plans, if they have any. Glad Nintendo is selling hotcakes again

Vita was a huge failure and MS attempts on the mobile market have been ever bigger failures (last I checked Windows Phones doesn't even have 1% of the phone market).

Neither are making a handheld anytime soon, if ever.
 

Maxinas

Member
Ohh I'm praying Sony and Ms... have plans for a portable .. it would be dope.

Microsoft? Never. Sony, less than 0.1% chance. I actually think the way things are now works well. Nintendo has always been king in mobile/handheld gaming, so they might as well stick with what's worked out with them. Sony still makes the best home consoles, so why risk it?

The failure of the Vita made it clear that releasing a aesthetically, and technically superior handheld won't be enough to compete against Nintendo in the handheld market. Even when it worked well for them with the PSP, the DS still sold almost twice as much.
 

NeonBlack

Member
It's the usual song and dance.

"I'll buy it for $300 bucks if it's bundled with $130 worth of games/peripherals" (which is kind of ludicrous in itself) will turn into "I'll buy it for 250 bucks with Mario and Zelda + a set of joy cons" when the former offer happens.

Then you'll get the infamous "where are all the Switch's" thread.
 
In a year I would say Sony would be in a really good position to shrink the PS4 into a <15W portable tablet. It's not really far fetched. But this isn't the thread for that, neither would I really be interested unless it was also an Android tablet.
 

z0m3le

Banned
In a year I would say Sony would be in a really good position to shrink the PS4 into a <15W portable tablet. It's not really far fetched. But this isn't the thread for that, neither would I really be interested unless it was also an Android tablet.

How could AMD accomplish that? They just did their shrink to 16nm, jaguar cores alone draw around 10watts in this form, gpu and GDDR5 consumes a fair bit too. It won't be ready until 7nm, and by then, ps5 will make such a device irrelevant.
 
At best we'll see a Playstation branded Android tablet with game controls and remote play. But even then that won't seriously compete with the Switch.

If it had decent controls I would pay a stupid amount of money for that and use it more than my switch.

Hell I use my vita for remote play all the time even with having to make huge control sacrifices due to the shit sticks and lack of buttons.
 

Jacce

Banned
In a year I would say Sony would be in a really good position to shrink the PS4 into a <15W portable tablet. It's not really far fetched. But this isn't the thread for that, neither would I really be interested unless it was also an Android tablet.
Sony has for a decade now failed to be able to compete with Nintendo in the slightest in the portable market. They know better than to try.
 
In a year I would say Sony would be in a really good position to shrink the PS4 into a <15W portable tablet. It's not really far fetched. But this isn't the thread for that, neither would I really be interested unless it was also an Android tablet.

You would say that based on what? Have you had a look at the power draw of jaguar and the GPU in the PS4? Even on smaller nodes and huge cuts to speed and other sacrifices, we're talking about big time power draw. There is a reason the Switch uses the components that it does.
 
This thing isn't selling 16 million a year, that's near PS4 levels.

PS4 sold that well in a category with fierce competition.

Nintendo Switch exists in a category with virtually zero competition.

edit: If anyone wants to know the real reason Nintendo stayed very quiet about Switch until October, that's exactly why.
 

ramparter

Banned
It's the usual song and dance.

"I'll buy it for $300 bucks if it's bundled with $130 worth of games/peripherals" (which is kind of ludicrous in itself) will turn into "I'll buy it for 250 bucks with Mario and Zelda + a set of joy cons" when the former offer happens.
I dont see Switch dropping price before another sku takes its place (weather its a lite version or a stronger)
 
Anecdotally this thing is really getting quite a lot of buzz like the Wii did. Maybe not "Today Show" levels of buzz but really anyone who sees it in person is very intrigued and at the very least interested in learning more. The "how bad is the stock" thread and the Switch launch thread have a lot of other stories of people seeing a Switch at work and immediately going to look to buy one.

16 million sounds crazy but it could be possible. That would give it a total of ~18 million by next April which is encroaching on Gamecube LTD sales. That'd be nuts.
 

Markoman

Member
PS4 sold that well in a category with fierce competition.

Nintendo Switch exists in a category with virtually zero competition.

edit: If anyone wants to know the real reason Nintendo stayed very quiet about Switch until October, that's exactly why.

Hm ok, so the Switch is mainly a handheld and Nintendo has no home-console anymore, is that right?
 

MTC100

Banned
PS4 sold that well in a category with fierce competition.

Nintendo Switch exists in a category with virtually zero competition.

edit: If anyone wants to know the real reason Nintendo stayed very quiet about Switch until October, that's exactly why.

The Switch has enough competition: The 3DS, Smartphones and of course a really well selling PS4. However it's a new system and it's a unique system. The only thing holding the Switch back somewhat is its rather high pricetag(especially outside the US).

That said, I still expect the system to sell around 50-70 million units in the end, it's just so much better than the WiiU was, it's almost a Wii. -I wonder though what will happen to the handheld division, I guess the 3DS will be Nintendos last HH-only device.
 

Zedark

Member
Anecdotally this thing is really getting quite a lot of buzz like the Wii did. Maybe not "Today Show" levels of buzz but really anyone who sees it in person is very intrigued and at the very least interested in learning more. The "how bad is the stock" thread and the Switch launch thread have a lot of other stories of people seeing a Switch at work and immediately going to look to buy one.

16 million sounds crazy but it could be possible. That would give it a total of ~18 million by next April which is encroaching on Gamecube LTD sales. That'd be nuts.

I agree that the interest seems to be there much more than for the Wii U at least, so that's already a boon. Still, the system won't (imo) reach that number just by name recognition + current lineup alone: I think a pokémon game and maybe something else (like monster hunter) needs to be there in the next fiscal year in order to reach this high number. After next fiscal year, assuming they managed to sell through something like 15-16 million out of 18 million, I expect the role of exclusives in pushing momentum to decrease as more third parties will start jumping on board, so sustained high levels of sales (even if not 16 million a year high) should be more easily achievable in later years.
 

Jacce

Banned
I wonder though what will happen to the handheld division, I guess the 3DS will be Nintendos last HH-only device.
There is no handheld divisions at Nintendo anymore. They merged all their handheld teams both the hardware and software teams with their console teams about a year back.
 
It would be hard for me to believe the Switch reaches those numbers without more 3rd party support. Those types of numbers reqiore consistent report and the thing os already in a retail drought.
 

LordRaptor

Member
Hm ok, so the Switch is mainly a handheld and Nintendo has no home-console anymore, is that right?

It's both, and nothing else* is.
I still can't fathom how that is such an alien concept to parts of GAF.

*outside of - arguably - gaming laptops, but they still have a worse form factor for portability
 

Hilarion

Member
You think that tablet shares the same portability as the last few Nintendo, atari, Bandai, Sony, and snk portables over the years?

Parents are big buyers of consoles for kids, a lot of which play Pokemon, and you think fragility would have no impact? What country are you in?

It's every bit as portable as the tablet I carry with me everywhere.

Switch isn't that fragile, either. It can survive a pretty fair amount of abuse. Sure, it's not Gameboy durable, but nothing is.
 

phanphare

Banned
Anecdotally this thing is really getting quite a lot of buzz like the Wii did. Maybe not "Today Show" levels of buzz but really anyone who sees it in person is very intrigued and at the very least interested in learning more. The "how bad is the stock" thread and the Switch launch thread have a lot of other stories of people seeing a Switch at work and immediately going to look to buy one.

16 million sounds crazy but it could be possible. That would give it a total of ~18 million by next April which is encroaching on Gamecube LTD sales. That'd be nuts.

they're also doing a great job marketing the system. I've seen tons of commercials for it and recently I've been seeing one that pushes zelda, arms, and splatoon 2 plus a standalone mario kart 8 one on top of the two zelda commercials and two 1-2 Switch commercials that have been around since launch

they've been essentially knocking it out of the park since the october reveal, it's been nice to see
 

TAS

Member
PS4 sold that well in a category with fierce competition.

Nintendo Switch exists in a category with virtually zero competition.

edit: If anyone wants to know the real reason Nintendo stayed very quiet about Switch until October, that's exactly why.

Actually I would argue the opposite. The conditions were ideal for Sony to dominate at the time. MS screwed up big time with the whole DRM fiasco which they never seemed to recover from and WiiU..well that's that. Not to take anything away from Sony's victory. They did everything right and they deserved to be in first place.
 

TheFuzz

Member
Anyone else seeing those "glossy" spots show up on the back yet? The matte black material came off when I used some toothpaste on a scratch. Luckily it's not huge, but I worry about the longevity and durability of the finish.
 

Sapiens

Member
I came here expecting to see positive news for Switch forecast and such but I see console warrior arguments instead.

Alien Soldier was the Crysis of the 16bit era. Nothing cant top it #SegaDoesWhatNintendont #TeamTreasure

I know...but it needed to be said.
 

13ruce

Banned
they're also doing a great job marketing the system. I've seen tons of commercials for it and recently I've been seeing one that pushes zelda, arms, and splatoon 2 plus a standalone mario kart 8 one on top of the two zelda commercials and two 1-2 Switch commercials that have been around since launch

they've been essentially knocking it out of the park since the october reveal, it's been nice to see

Yep agreed marketing is a huge step up and they should keep this way of marketing the kiddy commercials were cringeworthy and gave them that kiddy brand vibe. Using young adults is a huge step up imo, kids look up to those anyway so they will still like it.

Also the thing will market itself when you play in public. Especially after even more big titles are out like Zelda, Mario kart and oddyssey, Splatoon, Pokemon, Smash, Animal Crossing and more.

Also the more sleek design is great the Wii U looked like a freaking fisherprice toy.
 

Markoman

Member
It's both, and nothing else* is.
I still can't fathom how that is such an alien concept to parts of GAF.

*outside of - arguably - gaming laptops, but they still have a worse form factor for portability

The point is, Nintendo is competing with MS and Sony, no matter how people on Gaf try to twist this.

Average Bill walks into the video-games department of a store with 400$ in his pockets.
"Hm, what am I going to buy? This thing that plays games and I can carry it around...or this thing that plays games , those games looking great with my 4K TV? Or the cheaper version with 2 games?", "Or will I spend my hard earned cash on something completely else, something that doesn't play games"

Some people on Gaf should really try the average person's view for once. Imagine telling a non-gamer that you bought a Switch and a PS4/X1 in quick succession. Most people will say: "But why? You just bought a gaming thing 2 weeks ago"
 

Futureman

Member
how many units did the Wii sell in it's first year?

Maybe I'm wrong, but from my memory Wii wasn't a crazy phenomenon until the Spring or so after launch. Yea it was impossible to find during the holiday launch but that would have been true of any system. It wasn't until the spring when people still couldn't find it that it was obvious it was something out of the norm.

I remember finding one for rent at a Blockbuster and playing Wii Sports all week with friends n college.
 

Seik

Banned
Hm ok, so the Switch is mainly a handheld and Nintendo has no home-console anymore, is that right?

It's a handheld if you want it to be a handheld and it's a console if you want it to be as well.

It's the basic concept of a hybrid. IDK why some are digging for some kind of a 'definitive' answer to this.
 

Comet

Member
Sony has for a decade now failed to be able to compete with Nintendo in the slightest in the portable market. They know better than to try.

Um no, the PSP was definitely major competition for Nintendo. Unless you only consider beating Nintendo being "competition." The PSP was just shy of outselling the GBA in lifetime sales. If you would have told Nintendo in 2005 that Sony's upcoming PSP was going to sell 75 million units they would have shat the bed.
 
You would say that based on what? Have you had a look at the power draw of jaguar and the GPU in the PS4? Even on smaller nodes and huge cuts to speed and other sacrifices, we're talking about big time power draw. There is a reason the Switch uses the components that it does.

How could AMD accomplish that? They just did their shrink to 16nm, jaguar cores alone draw around 10watts in this form, gpu and GDDR5 consumes a fair bit too. It won't be ready until 7nm, and by then, ps5 will make such a device irrelevant.

I say that because AMD already has plans for a sub-15W APU based on 4x Zen cores and high-performance GPU parts based on Vega for release to the consumer market late this year, and a further die shrink next year. The only problem would be the way certain games were coded and speed of mddr4/availability of HBM2, so there would have to be some patching support, but they definitely aren't in a terrible position to miniaturize the PS4 further in the coming couple of years.
 

zelas

Member
PS4 sold that well in a category with fierce competition.

Nintendo Switch exists in a category with virtually zero competition.

edit: If anyone wants to know the real reason Nintendo stayed very quiet about Switch until October, that's exactly why.

Revisionist history before literally denying the impact of mobile on the handheld market.
 
Um no, the PSP was definitely major competition for Nintendo. Unless you only consider beating Nintendo being "competition." The PSP was just shy of outselling the GBA in lifetime sales. If you would have told Nintendo in 2005 that Sony's upcoming PSP was going to sell 75 million units they would have shat the bed.

75 million is good..but I wouldn't call it exactly competitive with 150 million+
 

brad-t

Member
The point is, Nintendo is competing with MS and Sony, no matter how people on Gaf try to twist this.

Average Bill walks into the video-games department of a store with 400$ in his pockets.
"Hm, what am I going to buy? This thing that plays games and I can carry it around...or this thing that plays games , those games looking great with my 4K TV? Or the cheaper version with 2 games?", "Or will I spend my hard earned cash on something completely else, something that doesn't play games"

Whenever a poster here imagines the hypothetical "average" consumer they make them out to be some braindead neanderthal. Average Bill doesn't go to the store with $400 to burn and nothing in mind to spend it on — he's likely already decided what he wants based on what he's looking to do, whether it's to play Destiny, or Zelda, or watch Netflix, or whatever.

Seriously, people other than "hardcore gamers" are capable of making informed purchasing decisions based on their individual preferences. Yes, Nintendo is competing with Microsoft and Sony, in that they're competing for consumers' money. But they're making different value propositions entirely — it's easy to see how Nintendo's offering is different and makes them less of a direct competitor, just like they were doing with the Wii.

The Switch's value proposition is not so complicated that people can't understand the benefits (and tradeoffs) versus a "standard" console.
 
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