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[SkyMasterson]

Not sure why they couldn't have done this with the NES Classic.

Great news though. I love mine a lot and cannot wait for some more games.

 

[The_Lump]

Remember how everyone was laughing at this image:



Looks like Nintendo is gunning to surpass those WW Xbox one numbers. And it'll probably happen a lot sooner than people think.

Seriously tho its a smart move for them. They have no competition in Japan. With the right price and the right software the Switch could probably push Gameboy/DS #s over there. Sony should really consider a successor to the PSP/Vita or else Nintendo will dominate that region for the foreseeable future.

That's pretty much inevitable unless Sony were to drop home consoles or create a hybrid like Nintendo. Switch is viable because it combines their game production under one umbrella; they no longer have to support two platforms. A Vita 2 would't work unless it could easily accept ports from from PS4/5 - and as we've seen with Switch (which could feasibly do this for current gen) it would end up an expensive piece of kit to produce. Not impossible, but unlikely given Sony's current position (they're making bank, no need to take risks like that).

 

[Always-honest]

Holy shit, they have some massive confidence in this system.
Makes me wonder how many big hitting games they haven't announced yet...

Hopefully a shitload.. because i can't see this happening, to be honest.
But maybe i'm just a Gaffer without a cue these days.

 

[Philippo]

The combo of MK8 Deluxe + Splatoon 2 + rumored Pkmn Stars + Mario Odissey is one hell of a lineup that will push a shit ton of units throughout the year.

 

[jariw]

Sweet, guess a new Metroid is confirmed then!

2-3 Metroid icons compared 12 AC icons? 25% confirmed, compared to an AC title.

 

[TanookiTom]

Holy shit, they have some massive confidence in this system.
Makes me wonder how many big hitting games they haven't announced yet...

Remember that Nintendo also had massive confidence in the WiiU all the while not having a whole lot of secret big hitting games up their sleeves?

I would really suggest people remain calm and skeptical of Nintendo's rather bad track record of predicting sales success.

The combo of MK8 Deluxe + Splatoon 2 + rumored Pkmn Stars + Mario Odissey is one hell of a lineup that will push a shit ton of units throughout the year.

I expect only a mild sales bump of MK8 Deluxe as it already sold what? 8 million units on WiiU? Splatoon 2 should at least do great numbers in Japan where it'll surely be a system seller. Not sure that it has this status in the western world yet besides good sales. Then there is Pokemon Stars which is really just a rumor and nothing more at this point. And the GameFreak comments made it sound a bit unlikely imo. And Mario Odyssey - well that might just suck. We know nothing about this game.

So at this moment, also taking into consideration the near inexistent 3rd party support regarding AAA games, I'd say it's not quite "one hell of a lineup that will push shit tons of units". Japan should be doing quite well as they are getting other games catered better to their tastes. But in Europe and the US... Let's say I hope they have someting good for E3.

 

[Inuhanyou]

16 million isn't 1/3 of the 3DS and I'm not sure why the Japanese ltd is relevant.

20 mil is, i rounded up

 

[Matbtz]

2-3 Metroid icons compared 12 AC icons? 25% confirmed, compared to an AC title.

I would bet for a Metroid announcement for E3 or maybe later this year. Reggie seemed overly confident when he said "We will talk about it in one year and we will see what happened". I really think there is a Metroid in the works otherwise Reggie would not have say that to be lynched later. But we will see

 

[oti]

Remember how everyone was laughing at this image:



Looks like Nintendo is gunning to surpass those WW Xbox one numbers. And it'll probably happen a lot sooner than people think.

Seriously tho its a smart move for them. They have no competition in Japan. With the right price and the right software the Switch could probably push Gameboy/DS #s over there. Sony should really consider a successor to the PSP/Vita or else Nintendo will dominate that region for the foreseeable future.

Let's not get crazy just yet.

 

[ggx2ac]

20 mil is, i rounded up

#AlternativeMaths

 

[Ombala]

Nice now lets release some games too.

 

[jdstorm]

I would bet for a Metroid announcement for E3 or maybe later this year. Reggie seemed overly confident when he said "We will talk about it in one year and we will see what happened". I really think there is a Metroid in the works otherwise Reggie would not have say that to be lynched later. But we will see

There was a Samus teaser in Federation Force and Retro is due to release a new game

Spoiler

It wont be Metroid

 

[oti]

This shows, to me, that they are likely to start putting 3DS aside and release Pokemon and Monster Hunter on the Switch. With this, they would have a two front strategy with Mobile phones as the other.

You couldn't be more wrong I believe. Nintendo will, in your words, have a three-front strategy with Mobile phones, 2DS/3DS and Switch. They want mobile users to upgrade to their own hardware. Asking mobile users to pay 400 for a Switch + game is unrealistic. 100 for 2DS + game though? Could work.

 

[Katana_Strikes]

Remember that Nintendo also had massive confidence in the WiiU all the while not having a whole lot of secret big hitting games up their sleeves?

I would really suggest people remain calm and skeptical of Nintendo's rather bad track record of predicting sales success.



I expect only a mild sales bump of MK8 Deluxe as it already sold what? 8 million units on WiiU? Splatoon 2 should at least do great numbers in Japan where it'll surely be a system seller. Not sure that it has this status in the western world yet besides good sales. Then there is Pokemon Stars which is really just a rumor and nothing more at this point. And the GameFreak comments made it sound a bit unlikely imo. And Mario Odyssey - well that might just suck. We know nothing about this game.

So at this moment, also taking into consideration the near inexistent 3rd party support regarding AAA games, I'd say it's not quite "one hell of a lineup that will push shit tons of units". Japan should be doing quite well as they are getting other games catered better to their tastes. But in Europe and the US... Let's say I hope they have someting good for E3.

I agree. I think some people are pinning too much hope on MK and Splatoon to take it through till Xmas. Who knows what else Nintendo have just yet but while I'm sure Mario won't suck, it could be delayed. And we know third party isn't picking up the slack. I'd be still conservative and not get carried away over what seems to be a stronger launch than most anticipated and nothing more yet. We all should know by now launch numbers never ever provide the whole picture.

 

[Shiggy]

Nice now lets release some games too.

They'll continue with the drip feed due to the lack of third party support. Look at the 3DS: games like Mario Sports Superstars or Majora's Mask were finished and localised but then kept lying in some shelf for 6-12 months because otherwise there wouldn't have been any game in the respective release month.

Same here: March had Zelda, April has MK8. May maybe Arms. Don't expect more than two games per month.

 

[Cerium]

I'm actually pretty confident there's a Metroid in development but the question is what style?

2.5D or Prime?

 

[Soul of the Beast]

Finally I can get one, Fuck Yeahhhhhhhhhh
It's completely sold out in my country.

Edit: Never mind, it looks like I still have to wait quite a bit.

 

[gtj1092]

We'll know soon enough if Nintendo forecasts 16 million at their next quarterly meeting. I don't expect them to though. Don't think they want a repeat of the 3DS where they consistently missed their forecasts.

 

[Matbtz]

There was a Samus teaser in Federation Force and Retro is due to release a new game

Spoiler

It wont be Metroid

Yeah I would prefer a new IP from Retro and Metroid developed by another studio (don't know which one though)

 

[Ansatz]

They'll continue with the drip feed due to the lack of third party support. Look at the 3DS: games like Mario Sports Superstars or Majora's Mask were finished and localised but then kept lying in some shelf for 6-12 months because otherwise there wouldn't have been any game in the respective release month.

Same here: March had Zelda, April has MK8. May maybe Arms. Don't expect more than two games per month.

Difference being they had to sustain two platforms using this method in the past, now it's only one.

 

[TLZ]

I agree. I think some people are pinning too much hope on MK and Splatoon to take it through till Xmas. Who knows what else Nintendo have just yet but while I'm sure Mario won't suck, it could be delayed. And we know third party isn't picking up the slack. I'd be still conservative and not get carried away over what seems to be a stronger launch than most anticipated and nothing more yet. We all should know by now launch numbers never ever provide the whole picture.

I think Dreamcast sold a whole lot at first then struggled later. Also didn't the Wii u sell like 3 million in about 2 months?

I'd wait 2 years first before jumping the gun.

 

[mugwhump]

Twice the production? That's some confidence.

I don't think they made that decision in the last few days based on launch reception, they probably wanted to do this even before.

 

[RulkezX]

This seems wildly optimistic.

 

[Shiggy]

Difference being they had to sustain two platforms using this method in the past, now it's only one.

Their current lineup doesn't indicate that they intend to release more than two games a month.

 

[TanookiTom]

Difference being they had to sustain two platforms using this method in the past, now it's only one.

And yet - despite the fact that the WiiU got basically nothing in the past two years - look at the lineup for the Switches first year...

 

[andythinkpad]

I think Nintendo just want round number to make good news. They can still change the production demand easily.

Look at niche movie that open really well but drop off sharply after 1-2 weeks, you really can't tell the market demand until you have more console and games available to sell.

 

[D.Lo]

While software sells hardware, if the hardware itself is incredibly undesirable, the best software on earth can't really fix that, especially once a negative stigma has taken hold. Wii U was seen as a joke within months of its release and that never went away.

I've been saying this in so many threads.

The Wii U was such a poorly executed, overpriced for its whole life console that it was a testament to the power of Nintendo's brands that it managed to sell even as much as it did with such huge handicaps. The exact same games on a desirable, or even neutral, system, I believe could sell more of that console than they could have sold Wii Us.

I think there's an excellent chance even older Wii U ports could outsell the Wii U version very very easily. How many Mario Karts will be bought if the Switch sells 10 million this year?

 

[Oregano]

We'll know soon enough if Nintendo forecasts 16 million at their next quarterly meeting. I don't it. Don't think they want a repeat of the 3DS where they consistently missed their forecasts.

I too doubt it but keep in mind this is apparently a production target, not a shipping target. For instance we heard they had three million units produced for March but only expected to shop two million of those.

 

[Ansatz]

Their current lineup doesn't indicate that they intend to release more than two games a month.

What is your argument exactly? 1-2 notable games per month is enough to sustain a healthy and financially viable platform.

 

[Shiggy]

I too doubt it but keep in mind this is apparently a production target, not a shipping target. For instance we heard they had three million units produced for March but only expected to shop two million of those.

That doesn't make any sense. Where'd you get that "info"?

 

[Buzzi]

Without a price cut I don't think there's a way to reach 12m, let alone 16m.
Sure, there are system sellers (Splatoon, MK8, Zelda, Mario) but nothing seems the new Brain Age or Wii Fit, and it totally looks like they'll sell not so great (like a couple millions imho) until fall due to the lack of software.

We'll see, there's certainly room for a cut, but planning it this early would be strange and not so different from the panic move of July 2011. Other than that I don't know, 16m is a great amount for something which still has to prove itself as a desired product in the mainstream market.

 

[Milly Osworth]

Good good good.

I love a healthy industry.

Shut up and put on your helmet. We are in console wars.

 

[Bluth54]

Isnt switch slated to sell 50% of n64 lifetime sales in its first year, if they sell the units they ship?

If you look at Nintendo hardware sales and take out the Wii/DS, which were lighting in a bottle and captured the casual market that's likely moved on to mobile games, there's a pretty clear downward trend. The consoles usually lose around 10 million users per generations and the handhelds can lose 20 million or more. It's not to say Nintendo can't turn things around, or even have another lighting in a bottle type system like the Wii/DS but the trend is there.

Since the Switch is a handheld and console hybrid it's really hard to peg what sort of sales it will have. It could certainly go higher than N64 (though I think close 3DS levels is probably the ceiling).

 

[JaffeLion]

Remember how everyone was laughing at this image:



Looks like Nintendo is gunning to surpass those WW Xbox one numbers. And it'll probably happen a lot sooner than people think.

no. just no.

 

[Oregano]

That doesn't make any sense. Where'd you get that "info"?

Which bit?

Nintendo said they expected the ship 2 million and Japan Display said they were producing three million Switch displays for March.

 

[jdstorm]

Yeah I would prefer a new IP from Retro and Metroid developed by another studio (don't know which one though)

Arent Bluepoint and Armature studios both full of former Retro developers who worked on the Metroid Prime series.

Dontnod would also be a great option. Proven history with AAA action games (Remember Me) and good writing (Life is Strange)

Nintendo or the Indie Studio the did the best most recent Metroid like (AR2M?) Could assist with level design.

Tantalus might also be worth a shot, but they seem to be a studio built on ports.

 

[Kysen]

Pretty high expectations considering the announced software so far.

 

[Shiggy]

What is your argument exactly? 1-2 notable games per month is enough to sustain a healthy and financially viable platform.

Well, what's your point then? Why did you quote me even to begin with when you weren't questioning my statement about the amount of software from Nintendo and their drip-feeding?

I didn't make any evaluation in terms of whether that makes a healthy platform.

 

[Shiggy]

Which bit?

Nintendo said they expected the ship 2 million and Japan Display said they were producing three million Switch displays for March.

Oh, that you mean. The 3 mio displays are for this fiscal year. Displays shipped on March 31 will not lead to Switch systems in shops on the same day. There's always a delay between shipment of production input and retail availability.

You made it sound as if they were producing systems for warehouses and deliberately not shipping a third of production. That's definitely not the case.

 

[Principate]

20 mil is, i rounded up

Not even 30 million is the 3DS is at 65. You don't round up by 4 fucking million that alone is a quarter of the initial value.

It's a bit over a quarter of what the has probably sold.

 

[Principate]

no. just no.

It'd be a major disappointment if they don't the 3DS is way way past that currently.

 

[Joelstinton14]

If you look at Nintendo hardware sales and take out the Wii/DS, which were lighting in a bottle and captured the casual market that's likely moved on to mobile games, there's a pretty clear downward trend. The consoles usually lose around 10 million users per generations and the handhelds can lose 20 million or more. It's not to say Nintendo can't turn things around, or even have another lighting in a bottle type system like the Wii/DS but the trend is there.

Since the Switch is a handheld and console hybrid it's really hard to peg what sort of sales it will have. It could certainly go higher than N64 (though I think close 3DS levels is probably the ceiling).

I wish people would stopped using the lightning in the bottle argument. They were two consoles that sold incredibly well. They're not exceptions. They are actual consoles that Nintendo released, put R&D into, marketed and thought about. You could label them as Risky, but the success of those consoles are results of decisions that Nintendo made. Are The PS2, PS4 lightning in the bottle successes? The 360?

Out of Five of the best selling consoles of all time, 3 of them are Nintendo. Despite the odd mishap, maybe they actually know how to bring a video game console to market and sell it. No one can ever predict what a console will do. Most of the market does not care about arbitrary statistics that gamers wet them selfs over - it is down to the overall package.

 

[Usobuko]

To whoever that guy was, it's not going to do DS number in Japan.

30 millions in Japan against a big, healthy and fast-growing mobile market? Nah.

 

[Oregano]

Oh, that you mean. The 3 mio displays are for this fiscal year. Displays shipped on March 31 will not lead to Switch systems in shops on the same day. There's always a delay between shipment of production input and retail availability.

You made it sound as if they were producing systems for warehouses and deliberately not shipping a third of production. That's definitely not the case.

Yeah, that's exactly what I meant. Production has to happen first(obviously).

 

[Matbtz]

Arent Bluepoint and Armature studios both full of former Retro developers who worked on the Metroid Prime series.

Dontnod would also be a great option. Proven history with AAA action games (Remember Me) and good writing (Life is Strange)

Nintendo or the Indie Studio the did the best most recent Metroid like (AR2M?) Could assist with level design.

Tantalus might also be worth a shot, but they seem to be a studio built on ports.

Maybe yeah i'm not too familiar with those. Yes I only know tantalus for their ports.

Pretty high expectations considering the announced software so far.

Or is it ? Mario Odyssey, Zelda BotW, Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2, Arms and all. Pretty great lineup for everyone that don't bought a Wii U, pretty hard to top that in 9 months.

 

[geordiemp]

The real question is this

What production numbers are Nintendo committing to ?

Maybe they commit to 20 million with options to ramp up to 30 million at months notice or decrease back to 8 million ?

Or maybe they have given out orders to suppliers for 16 million and there is no pulling back ?

 

[Cerium]

Maybe yeah i'm not too familiar with those. Yes I only know tantalus for their ports.



Or is it ? Mario Odyssey, Zelda BotW, Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2, Arms and all. Pretty great lineup for everyone that don't bought a Wii U, pretty hard to top that in 9 months.

It's entirely possible they'll be adding Xenoblade 2, Pokemon Stars, and possibly a Smash port along with that.

And that's just first party alone. Imagine if Japan gets a Monster Hunter for the holidays.

 

[Possumowner]

Interesting figures,can only mean more games coming to the system I'd of thought

 

[mavericktopgun]

This holidays : Mario Odyssey, Zelda BotW, Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2, Arms, a huge amount of indies and maybe Xenoblade 2 not too far away + potential bundle
= This thing will sell like hotcakes imo (I would bet 10M at the end of 2017)

You forgot Smash Bros 4 Deluxe

 

[D.Lo]

If you look at Nintendo hardware sales and take out the Wii/DS, which were lighting in a bottle and captured the casual market that's likely moved on to mobile games, there's a pretty clear downward trend. The consoles usually lose around 10 million users per generations and the handhelds can lose 20 million or more. It's not to say Nintendo can't turn things around, or even have another lighting in a bottle type system like the Wii/DS but the trend is there.

Since the Switch is a handheld and console hybrid it's really hard to peg what sort of sales it will have. It could certainly go higher than N64 (though I think close 3DS levels is probably the ceiling).

I don't want to target you particularly because you're not saying it in a particularly negative way, but I do always love the 'it was lighting in a bottle' argument to conveniently removing the Wii to 'prove' Nintendo is in perpetual decline.

First up, you can't use the 'lightning' metaphor when they did it more than once.

And secondly, their handhelds had been on the rise dramatically before the DS. GBA sold 81 million consoles despite the DS launching only three years into the GBA's life. The Game Boy line is listed as selling 118 million, but that's over 12 years and includes the Game Boy Color. 3DS is the first ever genuine decline they have had in handhelds ever.