The Horror the horror
Banned
The fact that it's going to be offline sort of gives Nintendo a bump in this race. If it were going to have strong online features, the least likely home would be a system with the weakest online infrastructure.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Yuji Horii: Dragon Quest 11 will be an offline game, for home consoles
- Thread starter Aeana
- Start date
- Status
OrbitalBeard
Member
sörine;171241649 said:
Holy shit...for real?
lol....are you aware of Dragon Quest X's existence
Mass_Pincup
Banned
More like he want the franchise to be big in the West, and for that the PS4 is his best choice.
sörine;171241649 said:
55% of what though? Software sales have really decreased since the PS2/GBA days.
Infernostew
Member
Didn't stop the Wii from getting Dragon Quest X.
mejin
Member
Is DQ11 on NX likely at all? I mean I'll buy DQ11 no matter what system it's on, but the Nintendo fanboy in me wants it on a Nintendo platform.
I just want to play the damn game. Too old to learn japanese and too tired to see people worshiping games they can't/won't play.
Cbajd5
Member
but wouldn't it being big in the west require someone to release dragon quest games here
maybe he should start with that
there's already a bunch people want to play
Is DQ11 on NX likely at all? I mean I'll buy DQ11 no matter what system it's on, but the Nintendo fanboy in me wants it on a Nintendo platform.
It should be on PS4 and NX.
Infernostew
Member
Uhh... DQH is coming this fall.
Yep.
01. 3DS - 23.387.031 <54,32%>
02. PS3 - 7.510.433 <17,44%>
03. PSV - 5.062.082 <11,76%>
04. WIU - 2.826.564 <6,57%>
05. PS4 - 2.441.876 <5,67%>
06. PSP - 1.053.282 <2,45%>
07. WII - 477.334 <1,11%>
08. 360 - 198.677 <0,46%>
09. XB1 - 96.009 <0,22%>
00. ALL - 43.053.288 <100,00%>
Also keep in mind that PS4 figure includes 400k free copies of Knack. Which is still the best selling PS4 game, and likely to remain that way until FFXV/KH3/DQXI/FFVIIr releases, whichever comes first.
OrbitalBeard
Member
sörine;171242069 said:
Mother of god....
The Horror the horror
Banned
It'll never happen unless he makes some changes that could potentially damage its value at home. You don't try to fix something that isn't broken, and when you have a consistent multi-million seller on your hand, tampering with its formula is the last thing you want to do.
"...I'd be on everyone's ignore list by now."
Well I would say DQX was more damaging to the brand than attempting to rekindle interest in the series on home consoles.
The Horror the horror
Banned
And it's a mistake they'll never repeat.
DQX has, surprisingly, been doing decently with its expansions. So someone seems to like it, lol.
Did you think our discussion on this was based on nothing?
The problem here is that home consoles represent a very very small percentage of dedicated gaming devices in Japan. Gamers have abandoned consoles.
Free to question it, I don't think it's unreasonable at all, but without knowing the platform(s), the specific deals in place and the kind of game they're making, I don't know what kind of discussion we can have right now, it just feels a bit premature.
For example I don't think that they will release the game only on PS4 in Japan and it's not like they're trying to revitalize the japanese console market because they're either fools or trying to be heroes.
But again a discussion where everyone can make his own different assumptions because we have no facts, will bring nowhere.
Anyway it's funny that some people are so concerned about japanese sales instead of being concerned about having the best possible game, which is what Verendus was laughing at.
Not to mention I have the impression that some people are still simply refusing/denying what Horii is saying clinging to the same japanese sales argument.
That's why the chose Xbox for Dragon Quest X?
Infernostew
Member
Not a huge install base and no pokemon, yukai watch or monster hunter.
Cbajd5
Member
OrbitalBeard
Member
DQX has, surprisingly, been doing decently with its expansions.
Did you think our discussion on this was based on nothing?
Well, I knew 3DS was doing very well relatively speaking...I did not realize it sold that much software compared to all other platforms. I also cannot believe, even with 400,000 free copies of Knack, that Wii U managed to sell more software than PS4. Insane.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Which is a very bad thing for Sony/Square Enix and its something that they have decided to do something about.
Mature. That IS where the "best experience" is for those that claim that argument, whether you like it or not. The reality is that if this game isn't on mobile or handheld, there are bags of money involved. Not "best experience" nonsense.
Infernostew
Member
They've released DQ1-6 on IOS and Android so they're doing something.
Overall yes, but 3DS is still moving competitive amounts of software versus previous successful platforms. For example DS in 2009 (the year DQIX released) was ~27m, and PSP maxxed out at ~16m in 2010 (the year MHP3rd released). The issue is more that everything else is a relative failure (Vita, Wii U, PS4, One, even PS3 really), 3DS is holding up it's end but the rest of the market has utterly collapsed.
Cbajd5
Member
Yeah, but those aren't on a console. Or even a handheld console. Or even a personal computer/console.
Last year the WiiU had Mario Kart and Smash Bros. What Japanese games did the PS4 have last year that can compare to that? Like come on, these comparisons are getting worse and worse.
Hey what's wrong with releasing the game with biggest install base? hehe.
If DQXI is a PS4/PS3 exclusive - which Horii is making seeming more and more likely to be the case - it will break a lifelong series tradition in 2 major ways:
1. DQ has always gone to the system with the highest Japanese install base. Horii has gone on record to flat out say this.
2. Enix/Square Enix have historically built up the DQ fanbase on each respective system which received a new mainline game. In addition to the occasional spinoffs, they've done this by releasing remakes of prior games as a "preparation" for the next mainline game.
SNES: DQI-III
PSX: DQIV
PS2: DQV
DS: DQIV, V, VI
3DS received/ is receiving remakes of the next 2 games which have yet to be remade, DQVII and DQVIII (although this is more of an update). In addition to that, since its very first year, it has received more DQ spinoffs than any other current gen system. All signs have pointed to 3DS following the exact same pattern as its predecessors (that being DQ mainline systems). The only game(s) that PS4 (and PS3) have are the Musou games, a Koei collaboration.
If I had to wager a bold guess, I would say DQXI originally started out as a 3DS game. Which would be why SE remade DQVII for the system and created a plethora of spinoffs for it, following the pattern the series has followed since the SNES.
1. DQ has always gone to the system with the highest Japanese install base. Horii has gone on record to flat out say this.
2. Enix/Square Enix have historically built up the DQ fanbase on each respective system which received a new mainline game. In addition to the occasional spinoffs, they've done this by releasing remakes of prior games as a "preparation" for the next mainline game.
SNES: DQI-III
PSX: DQIV
PS2: DQV
DS: DQIV, V, VI
3DS received/ is receiving remakes of the next 2 games which have yet to be remade, DQVII and DQVIII (although this is more of an update). In addition to that, since its very first year, it has received more DQ spinoffs than any other current gen system. All signs have pointed to 3DS following the exact same pattern as its predecessors (that being DQ mainline systems). The only game(s) that PS4 (and PS3) have are the Musou games, a Koei collaboration.
If I had to wager a bold guess, I would say DQXI originally started out as a 3DS game. Which would be why SE remade DQVII for the system and created a plethora of spinoffs for it, following the pattern the series has followed since the SNES.
Okay, let's play your game.
So, we'll go with three hypotheticals. I'll exclude the 3DS obviously, since it's not about that.
You have PS4 only, PS4/PS3, and PS4/PS3/Wii U. These are the current viable home consoles for Dragon Quest XI. I'd say Wii U only or Xbox, but since you're a bunch of haters...
First:
When is Dragon Quest XI releasing? You have to decide on this. We'll go with late 2016, since it'll be too difficult for you if I make it longer than that, and kind of pointless. Using this, you'll have to first get a gauge on the install bases on the consoles in question.
Now you have some data, so you should be able to get an idea of this. This is obviously important, since you need to know this before you can start making a projection on how well Dragon Quest XI could sell.
Of course, you don't know the release schedules of any upcoming titles on PS3, PS4, or Wii U over the next 17 months, so this'll affect your projection. In the case of PS4, this is quite important since you have FFXV, KH3, DQH2, and also the price cut which are all going to help in various ways, and you don't know when DQXI could hypothetically release between all that. We'll ignore the games, and I'll just tell you to do your best to factor in a price cut since that's going to happen prior to DQXI's release anyway.
Now, you might be thinking, why do I need to do all this when I know it's just going to sell less than it would on 3DS? But this is quite simple, and it has to be done. A cat could probably tell me Dragon Quest XI would sell less on PS4 only than on 3DS, but it wouldn't claim to have an informed opinion about an unannounced game, or what makes business sense, either. And if you're going to start talking about what makes sense, then you need to be able to do at least this much.
Other sales age people do it. There's that dude with the graphs and everything. They obviously put a lot of effort into what they discuss.
Now, in the case of the Wii U, you don't have any Dragon Quest titles that you can use to really make sense of what you could sell with a direct comparison. But you do have Dragon Quest Heroes on PS4. However, there's one issue you have to take into account. It's a spin-off title, and won't reflect exactly how much a mainline title on either of the three consoles could sell. But since I'm sure you're aware of this, you just need to factor in a split, and account for a percentage of error for me. I'm sure there's historical data for you based on sales of remakes, and spin-offs, and you can compare them to mainline releases, and go from there. It's not ideal, but I'm sticking to what you might have available to you. In this instance, if it was me, I wouldn't worry too much about the Wii U being affected by the platform split hurting it, because I don't believe the crossover between the two audiences would be as strong. Not to mention, you can just go to the sales split you saw with DQH, account for the mainline difference you expect, and go from there. DQ is like Fifa in Europe, and there's been plenty of successful DQ titles on the 3DS, and Wii U is going to be owned by a lot of Nintendo fans. It's not difficult.
You do have to account for PS3/PS4 since the split will matter there, and there's going to be crossover.
Now that you've done all this, you should be able to provide me three separate figures for each scenario.
And when you think about it, this is easy really, because this is the bare minimum you should be able to do based on what you have available to you via Media Create. Also, because you've not had to consider any of the following:
- Potential financial incentives
- Any assisted marketing
- Any international outlook at all
- The creative vision (because who gives a shit what they think)
- Why Dragon Quest Heroes probably exists
- Production budget, ROI
- Future plans for the title
And basically, all of the actual hard stuff when it comes to determining what makes business sense. In this instance, Dragon Quest Heroes exists for a very specific purpose, but you don't even have to worry about how successful that title was, it's ROI, and what that ultimately meant for all the parties involved. Forget DQH2 which is going to cost less, and do pretty well too.
I'll just point out one thing though. You think a Dragon Quest XI not releasing on the 3DS would mean the lowest series sales in franchise history. I'm not saying it's not releasing on the 3DS, but I'm not sure you realise just what the sales figures for some of the early title's original releases were when you don't take into account remakes etc. I've seen the figures, and although I may not have them in front of me, I'm pretty comfortable saying that in each of these three scenarios, even if the title was PS4 alone, that would not happen. So you're starting off pretty badly there.
Now consider that it might just end up releasing on 3DS for all you know, and you realise why I'm just laughing.
Because you know nothing, and that's why I find it hilarious to see a dozen posts worrying about what makes business sense when no one seems to have even made any effort, aside from "it would sell less than if it was on the 3DS".
I legit can't stop laughing. This is probably the best thread I've been in all year. Easily. I can feel the hurt from you, and I don't even know why, but it's there.
They can try all they want but based on the realities of the market their attempts at doing something is going to be futile.
OrbitalBeard
Member
No, I get it. I'm still surprised though.
When's the next big Japanese title hitting PS4?
And what software house in their right mind would want a market monopolized by one player, especially if that player is Nintendo. It is in the interest of producers of non-smartphone games to have competition for their products. I mean, what kind of deal is capcom going to be able to cut for monhun5, lol.
Father_Brain
Banned
Stupidity and/or a delusional savior complex are the only reasons why anyone would think the Japanese console market can be saved at this point. But I guess we're about due for the "wait for _____" game to begin in earnest.
The subjective appeal of a DQ game with broader scope and higher production values than would be possible on 3DS is obvious enough, and is perfectly reasonable to discuss here.
That doesn't make sales irrelevant in a thread about what's also a major business decision with significant ramifications for the future of SE and the Japanese market.
Infernostew
Member
So? They're making a effort to get these titles into the western market.
Metal Gear Solid V and Persona 5 are coming this year. It's still not a great lineup though. 2016 should be better if Square finally follows through and releases FFXV and KH3.
Father_Brain
Banned
...and that proves my point nicely. Thanks.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Not sure how I forgot about MGS V.
I really hope Persona 5 makes it out this year. I would assume it probably will, at least in Japan.
Cbajd5
Member
In the mobile westen market. So in that scenario, we must believe DQXI is only going to release as a smartphone game. (At least in the west.)
That just doesn't make sense to me...
What about Dragon Quest X?
That you can't read?
I'd like for you point out where I've said the Japanese console market is going to be saved, or that there's going to be some big turnaround. I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but I'm a big supporter of mobile gaming.
That's also why I know you're hurt from my comments, and why it's hilarious. If you make that kind of assumption based on a gif of someone laughing, you're not approaching this from a "I'm sensible, and trying to understand what really makes sense" perspective. Because if you were, that's not what you'd assume.
You could assume that person is a dick, or rude, or a bunch of other things, but your first inclination wouldn't be that, unless you had an axe to grind.
Different business model. Pointless to consider.sörine;171243461 said:
Father_Brain
Banned
No, the bolded really is the main thing.
If you want to insinuate that I'm a Nintendo fanboy (which is how many of those Vita threads circa 2012 and 2013 went, hmm), just come out and say so rather than making vague implications about what my agenda is. But I think you'll find I'm a pretty shitty one, given that I think they'd be better off going third party than bothering with NX.
Infernostew
Member
Don't be obtuse. Brand recognition from mobile will help other products in the franchise.
More pointless than Dragon Quest Heroes? A game which undersold DQX?
The only handheld beating 3DS in software sales is DS. It's tracking ahead of GB, GBA and PSP.
Like I said upthread, the issue is less with 3DS and more with literally every other current system.
return on investment is definitely one thing i kind of take pause at. is it possible dqh was made so that assets and models were available for use in dqxi? like, well we made all these so far, so why not contact k-t and have them do a thing with them so we can keep funding development?
i think the general health of the ps4 will improve in 2016, especially with the death of the ps3 and the vita (and the wii u) happening all around the same time as the release of final fantasy versus xiii and other gen 8-exclusive rpgs, thereby consolidating japanese fanbases to really two kinds of userbase - the more mainstream nintendo one, and the more hardcore sony one. i actually think it's fairly unreasonable to expect dqxi on the wii u at all, even though it received dqx and all of its expansions. perhaps the nx becomes the next home of dqx, but i think if any nintendo platform were to get this new game, it would probably be that machine.
Yup. If you include mobile game revenue + hh, total console game sales (wiiu, ps3/4, Wii, x1) would probably be 5-7% of the market on a dollar basis.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
sörine;171244066 said:
The GB almost sold almost twice as much software as the 3DS (albeit it's not over)
Actually if you include mobile then total gaming dedicated device sales (3DS, Vita, WiiU, PS3/4, Wii, X1, software and hardware) take up less than half of Japanese market (yes mobile side is software alone).
- Status