Herman Cain
Banned
ESO?
-
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April 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
ESO?
Obliterator
Member
Elder Scrolls Online
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
It is doable for sure, I think 325k would be good over/under point. PS4 is likely to do less than 200k for April and possibly May, so it would need a huge spike to get north of 300k. I do wonder how much holding back is happening right now as people reserve their purchases for a better value in June.
Yeah I don't see a point in seeing it as something significant that COD sells more on the XB1 in NA alone per say - it's trivial. The final tally is what goes into balance sheets. An euro is worth as much as a dollar, and so is the British pound to Activision - money simply put.
That is a really good point. I hadn't really thought about price related market saturation and its potential effect on sales in June. It could very well have an impact on total sales but while I agree it could temper sakes I do think the presence of a limited edition bundle will bump sales up YoY when the previous year had no limited bundle debut in the sabe month. Consumers love limited bundles. They tend to be fairly additive and boost sales significantly in their debut month. Like I've said numerous times in this thread I think, above all else, it will boil down to production and how limited the limited edition bundle will actually be.
Welfare
Member
Hey now, I only said March. PS4 was up in February. Overall though PS4 is down YOY when comparing the first 3 months.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
That's the key. How many of those thing will be made. I think it will be fairly limited as they don't want to risk those sitting on shelves.
Also you got to give kudos to Sony for sticking to their price point and value adding to it, they might be down YoY but I imagine their profit margins are improving this year so far with reduction in manufacturing cost. Also I think that will make the official price cut for the PS4 have tremendous impact, whereas MS's next cut will land like a wet noodle.
Oops sorry,
Edit just realized infamous was March last year so maybe that explains that.
Welfare
Member
It released in March.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Lol just realized and edited my post.
Herman Cain
Banned
Does anyone know why the Assassin's Creed Xbox One is doing so good this month? Wasn't that a discontinued thing? The PS4 bundle with the last of us is a new thing and also is sold from Amazon.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Tell that to MS with the AC Bundle xD
Poor guys in retail trying to get rid of them, the new AC is gonna be announced soon, don't think it'll make people want to buy Unity Bundle
Herman Cain
Banned
Well this indirectly answered my question, I though the AC Xbox was discontinued, so I guess they shipped more to some places than others.
But it's not in stock on Amazon and is 5 months old so I still don't know why it's doing so well.
Sangetsu-II
Member
This was Microsoft Chad first mistake, all he had to do was ask for PS4's last June sales to see that 350k was possible with both the limited edition and regular edition of Arkham Knight, maybe he is still reading this thread though.
Edit:
Actually Amazon still has Stock of the AC Bundle, not the main one but the one with the free controller:
Still Counts towards the same SKU
Herman Cain
Banned
But why is it(5 months old) doing better this month than a newer Playstation Bundle (last of us) with more games in the top 40? What's increasing demand for a game who's sequel is about to be announced?
I feel like this gets said every few pages in NPD threads but:
Hourly Amazon charts are not useful for making any sort of predictions. Seriously.
Sangetsu-II
Member
That's an easy answer...Deals!
Look at the three SKUs, the AC SKU has had:
$350
-Free Controller
-Free Game + Controller
-Free 1 Year Live + NBA2K15
-Free 1 Year Live
MCC SKU:
$350
-Nothing
TLOU SKU- ($400 alone)
with $450 (Not really a deal)
-I think it had The Order 1886
-I think it had Bloodborne
AC Bundle having these many deals and other retailer deals make me think retailers want to get rid of the overstock they have in their DC's.
Around two weeks ago stock issues with PS4 on Amazon. Then Amazon replaced litlle later with TLOU PS4. Anyway, Witcher 3 for PS4 surprises me. It's so high.
Herman Cain
Banned
I'm talking about The Last Of Us, which doesn't have stock issues, AC Xbox is 5 months old, Halo Xbox one is one month old, so I'm trying to figure out what's making people buy AC.
I am on the AC page and I don't see any option for NBA. I don't see many reviews for Controller or live either, but those have been there for awhile though so it's still a bit confusing.
I'm using Hourly and Monthly for May.
panda-zebra
Member
Don't waste your time, we're not really even a week in. Even then, there's only so much one can learn from Amazon sales history.
Herman Cain
Banned
Ok, I just find it weird why people would still want to buy a broken game that hasn't really improved that much in 5 months. But it's probably to early like you said so i think Humanity may not be as insane as I thought it was lol.
Grrrrrrrrr!
Sangetsu-II
Member
Never use hourly to determine positions only use hourly to see where demand is. Also on Monthly PS4 TLOU is beating Xbox One in May for sales so idk where you get Xbox One is in front of TLOU this month?
Edit:
lol
Herman Cain
Banned
Now to be fair i also said monthly in that post you cut off lol.
They were different earlier so I guess it updated. But like I said, I just found it to hard to believe people would still be buying that 5 month old broken game that still isn't fixed 5 months later.
Watch out for Zhuge is going to light fire to your ships!
Edit: I guess I should say blow the fire towards your ships
Bwahahaha~ poor Zhuge!
Sangetsu-II
Member
Well I guess it's easier to buy a broken old game than buy a collection of broken games?
Herman Cain
Banned
Well I guess it's easier to buy a broken old game than buy a collection of broken games?
Well Halo MCC SP was ok or so I have heard, never played it. Unity never worked anywhere. But you are right that is also a 5 month old broken game. Both are doing well, how odd.
The Mad Draklor
Member
LOL. Don't anger the Zhuge, Hermain xP
I don't know why some people were pissed at that. I found the perfume ad hilarious because it was so random.
Context is very important, man. I simply meant that it's better to have more units available so that it does not run out in June. Of course Sony could do it just to artificially boost sales like Microsoft XD
But it's an hourly chart. TLOU PS4 was in top 20, Xbone AC :U was in top 20 when there was a stock issues with PS4 ( before TLOU replacement ).
Prototype Viktor
Member
fry's was selling PS4's for $300 the other day through their email blast on promo sales
Birgitte2004
Member
I don't know what the math Amazon uses for Hourly, but it is not a snapshot of how the item actually performed during the last hour. It's more like how it's performed on average per hour over the last few months.
Items which were successful but are now completely sold out stay on the hourly charts for weeks.
Any idea how well or fast those PS4's sold?
Herman Cain
Banned
Negative, TLOU was never a replacement it was always there, and that still doesn't tell me why a 5 month old game bundle is doing better than a 1 month game bundle with the deals it's had for a month.
Edit: Xbox has a Destiny Bundle now, but $383 isn't really that much of a deal and I'd say that's regular price.
Amazon had a separate digital code for TLoU. It was never the official bundle from Sony. That bundle showed up recently........around the same time the standard PS4 was getting low on stock. It's a replacement.
Where are you seeing the AC bundle doing better than PS4?
Herman Cain
Banned
All day yesterday, and earlier this morning. Doesn't make sense.
Halo MCC collection isn't even getting brought but a 5 month old broken bundle is constantly doing well. I just looked at last motnh and that's even more insane.
Has not everyone who wanted the game brought it already?
Are you using hourly charts?
Yesterday i saw PS4 TLOU bundle in 20st place ( highest ), Xbone AC:U bundle little lower for majority of the day.
theprodigy
Member
I don't think I've thrown up a prediction yet....
[PS4] 200k
[3DS] 170k
[XB1] 140k
[WIU] 60k
not sure about 3DS
[PS4] 200k
[3DS] 170k
[XB1] 140k
[WIU] 60k
not sure about 3DS
The hourly fluctuates all the time. It doesn't really mean anything. The monthly gives you a better indication for total sales. But even with that, Amazon is only one retailer.
Edit-
I see you ment the Halo bundle. Well there could be many reasons why the AC bundle is doing better there. It has more deals associated with it.....it comes with 2 free games instead of one......nobody wants the MCC.
For the last time stop trying to make inferences from hourly charts! If you are going to use Amazon charts at all use the monthly charts . The ACU bundle has had significant added value in attempts to sell off stock (Controllers, gift cards, live cards, games) while the MCC bundle has been at standard price as has been explained to you multiple times. Why do you insist on trying to connect dots that don't exist? We answered this line of questioning the first time you asked. Nothing has changed! Why do you continue to ask? It's infuriating! Stop.
Herman Cain
Banned
NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In Hourly for a lot of the time I saw ACU on top but that's hourly and I'm not talking about that, that changes every 5 seconds.
Those deals are old though and the game is 5 months old and did poorly when MCC bundle was new looking back to march.
I was not talking about hourly charts, Monthly has updated like 5 times, it was on monthly where the AC bundle was ahead.
You also need to clam down, you are using old deals as an excuse for the ACU doing better than the Halo Bundle, which doesn't make sense. Look at Amazon March.
Also I'm not insisting anything and I'm not entirely sure you know what I'm actually talking about, I am saying that it's strange that the ACU bundle, a broken 5 month old game bundle, is not only doing better than Halo, but has also done better, and is currently close to the NEWER The Last of US Bundle. (Also I never seen you reply to me before so i think you may have me confused or something)
It can't only be just deals, and in my area I can't even find a ACU on the ground if I wanted to so maybe there's a bug or something?
Anyway I hope MS gets fixed games in bundles next time.
Odd, i saw the opposite.
Herman Cain
Banned
Lol, I don't know what's going on with it, but it seems there's some bugs going on so best to not use Amazon at all for now.
The Mad Draklor
Member
The Amazon talk needs to be put to rest. Even using monthly charts isn't satisfactory as there are a lot of deals unique to Amazon and the retailer only encompasses ~5% of the US sales.
It would be justifiable if buying habits on Amazon are the same as those in other retailers, but just going by the deals, this is clearly not the case. We're much better off waiting for Abdiel's assessments and hopefully, we hear something from other people like Cornbread. It's too bad that The Shogun is gone T_T
It would be justifiable if buying habits on Amazon are the same as those in other retailers, but just going by the deals, this is clearly not the case. We're much better off waiting for Abdiel's assessments and hopefully, we hear something from other people like Cornbread. It's too bad that The Shogun is gone T_T