Nightengale
Member
I said NPD first month. I don't have LTD numbers. I don't even have the ratio split for 360
S3 SKUs of Arkham City.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
April 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I said NPD first month. I don't have LTD numbers. I don't even have the ratio split for 360
S3 SKUs of Arkham City.At this point you guys are banging your heads against a brick wall that refuses to believe that install base numbers has everything to do with software sales for most games, and doesn't understand this...
All you will do is lose your mind by continuing to argue with him.
Chad your logic is on shaky ground.
1. The 360 had a bigger install base so logic dictates it would see bigger sales, what is changing this time round is PS4's userbase in comparison to the Xbox One and Sony's marketing deal are factors you can't ignore.
2. A slow month can mean more attention to that title compared to a busy period where everyone is buying dat COD and subsequently forgotten the next week when Battlefield comes out.
3. Pre-orders can help gauge a trend especially given that this is pre-order culture with shitty pre-order bullshit deals.
4.... Okay!
5. [insert every multiplatform game ever]
Magic Mushroom
Member
Not as bas as Microsoft Don though.
Then don't state it as a fact that more people played the game on 360 then PS3 if you don't have proof. Destiny has 20 million users, but not all 20 million bought new retail. The used market, digital and PS+ free games have an impact on the amount of people playing the games.
LOL, I have no clue what I'm talking about. I stated valid points which are also used by other posters. You, on the other hand, just state your assumptions without any valid points. And moving goal posts?! What? I still maintain my stance that the 360 versions sold better in the first month because of the larger install base but the PS3 versions MAY outsell it later on.
Chobel
Member
That assumes all 360 owners (or a big portion of them) will upgrade to XB1 and not to PS4, which as of now, it's not case at all.
Darth Smurf X
Member
I can't speak for every Batman fan, but I WAS on the 360. I'm on the PS4 now. So.......
Or to put it another wayYou can't buy Arkham Knight on a 360, so you can stop talking about it. You either have to buy an XBO or a PS4 to play it (ignoring the PC for this sentence). And Sony has the bundle. The PS4 will see a spike in sales (based on evidence of the Pre-orders selling out).
And here's yet another way to put it. Many gamers haven't upgraded to current gen yet because the games they want to play have been cross-gen for the most part. We are just now getting into current-gen only territory with several franchises. If you want to continue playing your favorite games, you'll need to shell out some money for a new console. The previous Arkham games did not require that. Destiny did not require that. Madden/CoD/Battlefield/etc did not require that. Batman Arkham Knight does and that will push people to upgrade.
Still, it's always fun to debate with juniors who know next to nothing about what they are talking about.
He's definitely more annoying than the console warriors duo. XD
Microsoft Chad
Banned
Below is a post leaving the thread, read the bottom quote for my admittance of this being mostly by fault and I have made many mistakes and looking to improve. This is for especially those certain users out there just looking into the conversation or who may not have tome to read everything. Look at the third paragraph below in bold and underline for full apology.
Ok Guys ok, I get it, I get it. I'm Done.
I still believe (subjective) the Xbox One will have games in 2016 (slow months) and I still believe that Batman won't break 350k, and other people have said that as well/questioned it as well (interesting) in their opinions, but it's all good.
I'll just leave the thread if you want, it's all good, clearly not working here and I see and am getting a lot of contradictions and DSdards, I also post to too many people. I also definitely don't need to have anymore of my posts put out of context or misread making it look bad to certain people who may be reading this thread so I'll leave this thread to you guys.
Personally, i probably should stop responding to every post as that just makes posts more confusing to read. Hopefully all see this, I'm gone, I don't want to be seen as the bad guy for small things, so look and see that I indeed can leave a frustrating thing behind me if I want, and will cause no more issues.
It was uh, interesting.
~Microsoft Chad
One more.
Yes they have, In fact I had a guy literally say i said something else above then what i actually said. Other people have had similar opinions here, and I had people saying I never explained anything when I explained things numerous times (including you if not mistaken). I'm done, because all that looks to certain users on the outside, who probably don't have time to read the whole thing, this is a big forum, is me looking bad for no reason and then who knows what will happen? And only being here a short time, i don't need that so it's good.
~Microsoft Chad
I will also admit for certain users who may be viewing this thread, that the majority of Mistakes were my own, don't think that I'm saying the people on here are all at fault. No, It's mostly be by a large margin, I could have just left some comments alone instead of responding to them, I could have left earlier, I'm a very defensive guy, will need to work on that hope all see this. Especially those certain users.
I am looking to improve.
Thank You.
~Microsoft Chad.
Ok Guys ok, I get it, I get it. I'm Done.
I still believe (subjective) the Xbox One will have games in 2016 (slow months) and I still believe that Batman won't break 350k, and other people have said that as well/questioned it as well (interesting) in their opinions, but it's all good.
I'll just leave the thread if you want, it's all good, clearly not working here and I see and am getting a lot of contradictions and DSdards, I also post to too many people. I also definitely don't need to have anymore of my posts put out of context or misread making it look bad to certain people who may be reading this thread so I'll leave this thread to you guys.
Personally, i probably should stop responding to every post as that just makes posts more confusing to read. Hopefully all see this, I'm gone, I don't want to be seen as the bad guy for small things, so look and see that I indeed can leave a frustrating thing behind me if I want, and will cause no more issues.
It was uh, interesting.
~Microsoft Chad
One more.
Yes they have, In fact I had a guy literally say i said something else above then what i actually said. Other people have had similar opinions here, and I had people saying I never explained anything when I explained things numerous times (including you if not mistaken). I'm done, because all that looks to certain users on the outside, who probably don't have time to read the whole thing, this is a big forum, is me looking bad for no reason and then who knows what will happen? And only being here a short time, i don't need that so it's good.
~Microsoft Chad
I will also admit for certain users who may be viewing this thread, that the majority of Mistakes were my own, don't think that I'm saying the people on here are all at fault. No, It's mostly be by a large margin, I could have just left some comments alone instead of responding to them, I could have left earlier, I'm a very defensive guy, will need to work on that hope all see this. Especially those certain users.
I am looking to improve.
Thank You.
~Microsoft Chad.
Nightengale
Member
It's fine to believe that.
I too think XB1 will have games in slow months, but I won't go parading it as if it's a fact other than QB at this moment. It's fair to think Batman won't break 350k too. Welfare thinks so as well, yet no one's jumping on him.
A lot of us just feel that your arguments are faulty/terrible and dismissive of some of the arguments made by other posters. And you choose to avoid discussing it in-depth when pressed, which doesn't give anyone a good impression of you, even more so when you say things like 'slant.'
The Mad Draklor
Member
We already know the XB1 will have games in non-holiday 2016 so there's no point in continuing to believe in that.
Your posts were not put out of context nor were they misread. We have shown our arguments in a coherent manner and it was up to you to refute our arguments. Didn't matter if we still disagree with you as long as you make fair points. However, you blew that chance and kept relying on repetition.
That 2-for-1 ban was priceless xD
And the war was amazing while it lasted XD
Birgitte2004
Member
Good lord I despise stuff like this. You don't get to play the passive aggressive "I never had a chance because you all suck" card as you leave a thread.
The Mad Draklor
Member
I was also scared to death because I was still a junior when that happened and Theodore kept trying to drag me into it >_<
No, the fact that you stated things as facts without evidence to back it up is what makes you look bad.
Damn, you're lucky you made it out, then.
Nothing wrong with these points of views, it's just when you brought in "unnannounced titles" into early 2016 like an insider was when that part of the convo went tits up, and banging on about how the Arkham games sold better on Xbox 360 when we only had first week sales and for your further point to hold relied on MS retaining their Xbox 360 marketshare which following every NPD since November 2013 shows MS leaking out marketshare like diarrhea was another trap you fell into.
The Mad Draklor
Member
I'm... very skeptical of this statement considering that this is the 2nd time that has happened and he has shown 0 improvement in his habits.
He's literally a recidivist in one thread ... and he only has 160 posts. Probably not a great sign.
He's only been posting since the fifth. Learning things takes time.
True, just give him time. At least he's not one of those all-too-common juniors that walk up in a sales thread with big eyes and a bigger mouth, constantly stating opinion as fact and doubling, tripling, quadrupling down on those statements until someone (usually a mod) finally talks some sense into them or they get banned & subsequently ridiculed by everyone else. I can also assume that username doesn't do him any favors. Quite an unfortunate choice. I wonder if he actually works for Microsoft.
Whelp I see I missed the relapse. Surprise surprise. Here's hoping we avoid bearing witness to this particular brand of confounding ignorance, childishness (all caps seriously?) and obstinate pigheadedness in future Sales GAF threads. Sorry for failing at my SALES GAF bulldog duties guys. I did not expect a relapse so soon. This is really getting tiresome to deal with in a regular basis.
Yes, I don't think we've seen one of those since the 4th.
The Mad Draklor
Member
I won't be surprised if MS opts for the eau de toilette route again xP
It's possible. They could get in contact with a few retailers and make it happen by just offering a money back credit with each copy sold in a bundle.
Herman Cain
Banned
Double post
Herman Cain
Banned
Looking at everyone elses guesses I think mine may be too high for the HD twins and too low for Nintendo.
Anybody want to look at my chart and throw in some feedback?
They are sure to do something. They have been extremely responsive to PS4 deals in the U.S. thus far this gen. No way they will just take a limited edition bundle on the chin. I think another free game with purchase of console deal is probably the most likely and it would undoubtedly give them the Arkham City NPD win since the PS4 bundles wouldn't count towards software numbers. They tend to like having a win in an otherwise devastating month so that they can perpetuated the delusion of relative success. That's what gives us these fun little exchanges in sales GAF most of the time: such strategies emphasize willful ignorance as a marketing tactic.
Remember it's a 4 week month that historically puts out slower weekly numbers than the previous month. There's also not much in the way of large AAA releases outside of MKX fir the month and while it undoubtedly sold incredibly well it doesn't strike many as a hardware pusher. So yeah I'd say you might want to rethink your figures.
Herman Cain
Banned
Are my Nintendo numbers good or also way off?
WiiU figures are ok. Mine are a bit higher but yours are well within reason. 3DS is a bit harder to reliably predict this month. There were a lot of variables the past few NPD months that undoubtedly boosted sales but we really have no idea whether that created any meaningful momentum. So for 3DS your guess is as good as anyone else's I'd say.
You are of course free to adjust your figures up until the deadline.
That ad sure caused some commotion on GAF that day.
Yeah they will have some type of deal I think. They wouldn't want Sony to have June to themselves with all the marketing and mindshare they're going to get from that game.
Edit-
What Rex said basically.
Herman Cain
Banned
So you think that a full Month of Halo MCC bundle, or the full month of BloodBorne may cause any boosts in sales?
Halo MCC bundle hasn't really been performing well at retail. All indications are that it's not going to push any sales past what would normally be expected for the month.
It's Bloodborne's second month. The vast majority of its hardware sales potential was in its opening week. Hardware sales tie ratio tends to fall rather rapidly for unbundled titles after that initial sales rush. Bundles (especially special limited edition bundles) tend to enjoy more legs hardware wise than unbundled software releases.
Herman Cain
Banned
How about Hardline? That came out maybe a bit too late last month.
Welfare
Member
April is a slow month for sales and the average drop from March to April is ~40%. Mainly due to the transition from 5 weeks of tracking in March to 4 weeks, and April kicks off the slow sales months (which lasts to around July/August)
Looking at your XB1 number for example, that is higher than what it did last month by 20k, even though it's now a 4 week month.
PS4 is also very high. Last year the PS4 did 199k and that was after it doing 371k in March. The PS4 is currently down year over year, with it doing 340k in March. 280k is highly unlikely.
The last time the Wii U was that low was back in 2013.
3DS looks alright.
Also, software only has a massive impact in the launch month.
Obliterator
Member
Wait a second, maybe I'm reading things wrong.
Are some you predicting Batman wont open higher than 350k? I have to be mis reading that
Are some you predicting Batman wont open higher than 350k? I have to be mis reading that
They are saying Batman won't cause the PS4 to sell higher then 350K consoles that month.
Obliterator
Member
Ohhhhhh ok that changes everything. I was confused as fuck
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
I don't know the history of this, but is there an E3 bump at all for console sales? If not I guess that just goes to show how "inside baseball" events like E3 are. If it does cause a bump, I think that combined with Batman AK would cause the PS4 to sell significantly better in June.
Obliterator
Member
What was PS4 last June? It will be up big time over that YoY
Chobel
Member
269K
Herman Cain
Banned
Yeah my HD twins numbers are to high.
Still not sure about the Wii U, I need a third opinion for that one.
Obliterator
Member
Really? I could see it breaking 350k then. Provided Arkham Knight is a quality product
Also you are all leaving out ESO in June. That game is likely gonna do big business on consoles
Herman Cain
Banned
Looking at last year it's the month after E3 that gets the E3 bump.
BTW, why aren't we predicting Vita/PS3/360?
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Only problem is like welfare stated, PS4 is down YoY every month. I think the market penetration at $399 has weakened significantly, in large part because MS was so aggressive during the holidays and are still discounting to $349 now. Arkham will no doubt cause a bump, but at this point the only way I think to increase YoY is to drop the price, maybe not now, but it has to at some point this year if they realistically want to sell more than last year.
I am not even sure COD sells more on XB1 vs. a platform with almost twice its install base. May be a misconception based solely on NPD - North America sales ONLY.
I would wager worldwide sales of COD on PS4 are greater than those on XB1.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
That's the thing though this is a NPD thread so WW figures don't play much into conversations. Also US is one of the few if not the only battlegrounds in this race between PS4 and Xbone. WW discussion is almost moot at this point, because as you said the lead is so significant every game should realistically sell better on PS.
Obliterator
Member
That bundle should have some big momentum, also ESO that month.
350k+ is doable imo