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NPD Sales Results for September 2007
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
Omar Ismail
Banned
People claiming that 360 sales are disappointing, and that sales will drop off are going to be in for a surprise. Right now H3 has an attach rate of 50%, that is entirely absurd. Even the original Halo-box only achieved something like a 30% attach rate. Even games like NSMB and Nintendogs and Brain Training don't hit that kind of attach rate. What this means is that the attach rate for H3 will actually come DOWN to more reasonable levels. How does that happen? Through higher hardware sales. And considering that Halo will continue to sell well through the rest of the year and beyond, 360 sales will have to be quite high as well.
This is taking a completely different approach, looking at statistics and numbers instead of first principles, so we'll see how things go. But I won't be surprised if you see 400K+ in October, 1M in November, and near 2M in December.
This is taking a completely different approach, looking at statistics and numbers instead of first principles, so we'll see how things go. But I won't be surprised if you see 400K+ in October, 1M in November, and near 2M in December.
Nolan. said:
I agree; re: HS and Lair it's just that they weren't perceived as AAA/high-quality titles. Considering that right now the PS3 fanbase is fairly hardcore, it wouldn't surprise me that the negative buzz (much more so for Lair) around both titles at release seriously hurt their sales, and perhaps not unjustifiably so. But I'm sure a good portion of that fanbase is dying for Uncharted, LBP, etc. to be great and would make those games more successful provided that the quality is perceived to be there.
plagiarize
Banned
the interesting thing to me about HS, is i was expecting to see a Saints Row effect. first solid exclusive in a while... i figured it'd have healthy sales as PS3 owners leapt on the first game to come along and really show off their system even if it wasn't the best game ever... but that really didn't happen.[Nintex] said:
it makes me wonder how many PS3 owners ONLY own the PS3, or how many own it for Blu-Ray first and gaming second.
i remember when the 360 seemed to have a game each month selling really well, and all that hive mind business started, and people were saying that it was happening because there weren't many games coming out for the 360, so each solid title sold well to the people looking for something to play.
TheRipDizz
Banned
Why play Metroid Prime 3 when there's Carnival Games sitting on the shelf? The descision is fairly obvious, isn't it?Hcoregamer00 said:
First Children
Member
What about Jam Sessions on DS?Stormbringer said:
I'd pay for the full old NPD data.
TheRipDizz
Banned
How's Mario Party 8 for a compromise?Grecco said:
I'm really not suprised about Heavenly Sword tbh... that demo did it absolutely no good and the final game is rife with technical problems and overall plays like a PSone game in terms of it's mechanics and scope. The cut-scenes definitely took cinematics and direction to a new level for games but the game was lacking...and certainly nowhere near being worth paying full price for. I downloaded the Kai demo recently from the JP store and seriously lol'd.
CitizenCope
Member
Late to the party. Holy snykies 360!!
Is it safe to say that 360 now pwns the college dorms of america?
Is it safe to say that 360 now pwns the college dorms of america?
vpance
Member
PS3 userbase seems quite fucked up. Some are just buying movies, but only as much as to sustain a 2:1 lead average week-to-week over HD-DVD, some just sticking to PS2 games probably, and only a small percentage that actually buy PS3 games. HS selling only 139k to a userbase of 1.5 mil (i think) in NA is very sad. It could be the Halo effect killing it though. It'll be more clear when Oct sales results are known.
If the PS3 userbase was truly mostly hardcore buyers, they certainly arent PS3 gaming hardcore. I'd wager most aren't actually.. 360 seems to have captured that crowd, and the Sony FUD and huge negative stigma is heavily rooted in the minds of that audience effectively killing sales there.
If the PS3 userbase was truly mostly hardcore buyers, they certainly arent PS3 gaming hardcore. I'd wager most aren't actually.. 360 seems to have captured that crowd, and the Sony FUD and huge negative stigma is heavily rooted in the minds of that audience effectively killing sales there.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
That seems... a tough assumption. 90% of core gamers don't agree on squat.mr_bishiuk said:
I wonder if there's even a game more than half of this forum actually owns?
In US lifetime through PS3's age, it's above DC, but closer to it than to GameCube. By this point DC was doing really shitty on a monthly basis, even compared to what PS3 is doing now, so PS3 will continue gaining relatively.Subitai said:
vpance said:
Hardcore in the sense that they were aware of the perception that HS and Lair weren't great games and that affected a material amount of purchasing decisions. I'm not going to get into the substantive merits of either of those games or speculate on FUD conspiracy theories, but that seems like a fairly reasonable explanation. Resistance and Motorstorm have both been substantial hits, so if there's any FUD going on it's that PS3 owners don't want to buy games--reminds me very much of people chastising Wii owners for not buying every third-party title that came out on the system.
It was only up until the last month that people became weary of Lair and HS. Anytime a thread was made about these games before the reviews people were screaming GOTY. If you criticized either game you were called a troll and then lectured on how sony pumping tons of money into these studios and the hiring of new people would lead to a hit. Both games have been building hype since before the release of the PS3 and both of them bombed.AstroLad said:
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
vpance said:
After seeing skate.'s sales, my theory is that simply a large majority of PS3 users also have a 360 and prefer it for their multiplatform endeavors. This would mean that any given PS3 title is in direct competition with anything on the 360's platform and also any significant multiplatform game.
It would kind of explain a lot.
plagiarize said:
The really weird thing is this hive mind thing or whatever you want to call it still seems to be in effect even when there are better titles to be had. I just hope 3rd party publishers don't get too disheartened looking at the ps3 numbers each month though because I would like to see them put some more effort into it. Having said that though I don't know what game it will take for the ps3 base to buy in mass but I would love to see Folklore chart next week if there is any justice ;__;.
Looking back over the sales what strikes me is that
1.Halo3 sold alot, I mean alot. Kudos to Bungie.
2. Even with Halo 3, the 360 only snuck by a stock limited Wii. The Wii had MP3. Great title, but not the "It" game that Halo3 is now. IOW, Halo 3 barely moved more systems that Wii Sports did in the month.
3. The PS3 needs help. Not "let's take out BC" help. I don't think MGS4 and FF XIII can get the PS3 over the hump. Sony Moneyhats are needed stat for many, many titles. Otherwise, it looks like the PS3 is this gen's Gamecube.
1.Halo3 sold alot, I mean alot. Kudos to Bungie.
2. Even with Halo 3, the 360 only snuck by a stock limited Wii. The Wii had MP3. Great title, but not the "It" game that Halo3 is now. IOW, Halo 3 barely moved more systems that Wii Sports did in the month.
3. The PS3 needs help. Not "let's take out BC" help. I don't think MGS4 and FF XIII can get the PS3 over the hump. Sony Moneyhats are needed stat for many, many titles. Otherwise, it looks like the PS3 is this gen's Gamecube.
Comparing PS3 to GC or DC does not make sense. PS3 is just starting to roll out its AAA titles and just about to drop to a consumer friendly price. I don't think GC or DC at this point in their life had so much potential to become more appealing.
I'm just now catching up, but it is possible to have a brand secure a reputation that isn't shaken. I'm very interested to see how the latest price drop does over the next few months. The last one had this impact:Jackson said:
Code:
Weekly Sales
Jun'07 19,694
Jul'07 39,750 Price Cut
Aug'07 32,650
Sep'07 23,880Two months after Sony drops by $100, and they're almost back to their pre-drop sales rate. Could be getting to $500 just didn't get the 60 GB system down to the level that made it more attractive than it was at $600, could also be market apathy. I'm interested to see how the $400 unit does compared to MS's $400 offering last year. Will there be an uptick to ~500k and ~1m in November/December, or more muted? Their box packs a lot more in than Microsoft's did at $400, I'm curious to see how the market responds.
Omar Ismail
Banned
BenjaminBirdie said:
If that's the case then that is a VERY bad situation for Sony. There'd be essentially no point for devs to go multiplatform as the revenue wouldn't cover the costs with doing a port. I have a feeling that pubs are already sending the warning signals to Sony which is why they're taking drastic measures with the 40GB. But it may not be enough. Fortunately for Sony that devs have already invested a lot of resources into multiplatform engines, so the incremental cost of doing a port should be pretty low. But that's also why you'll never see a PS3 multiplatform title be technically better than the 360 counterpart. There's no incentive to put any extra effort.
vpance
Member
Astrolad said:
HS got better than average reviews though. If you compare it to something like Lost Planet, also a game rated average or slightly above, it did much worse comparitively speaking. The PS3 crowd cant be that fickle can it? I still think HS will do just as well as Resistance and Motorstorm and become one of those slow burn sales titles, but that's still a disappointment. Same thing kind of applies for Warhawk, different because it's multiplayer only, but still regarded as a great game.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
Omar Ismail said:
The same conversation is sort of going on in theBishop's Valve thread, but the sentiment applies here as well. skate. sold a 1/4 of what Heavenly Sword did, which would fit right in to the presumed ratio if PS3 and 360 are catering to the same general userbase.
The Heiarchy Would Be:
a) 360 Exclusive/Blockbuster Multiplatform
b) Multiplatform 360 Version
c) PS3 Exclusive
d) Multiplatform PS3 Version
Which is how the traversing from Halo to Madden to Heavenly Sword to skate. PS3 seemed to work out, basically, this month.
Hunter D said:
Right, and I think that point is actually quite material to what I'm saying. Both were hugely hyped among the hardcore, and both did seem to fall short of those expectations. Of course short of pre-orders (and even with the hype most people were still wary enough to hold off for a review or two), you can't sell copies exclusively during the pre-release hype period. And a week into release, the hype on both was already deflating.
It's a bit of a nuanced point, but I'm not implying that HS was perceived as a bad or below-average game by any means. Of course, discussing what caused people not to buy certain games is the height of speculation.
I agree with you. HS is far from being a bad game, but did not hit the bar that a lot of people set for it. Notice how people have forgotten about Lair, HS, and WH and have moved on to RnC and the ND game.AstroLad said:
Edit: I would set the PS3 high for dec or nov at 750000. The 360 and Wii are going to ruin the PS3 this holiday season IMO.
Pureauthor
Member
schuelma said:
Freudian slip?
Opus Angelorum
Member
Gadfly said:
Not a chance.
Yeah, it should. $400 with what it packs is a tremendous deal, and MS moved a lot of hardware at the same price last year. It will be the first real test, now that price point is down to where other systems have been, whether the PS3 will be adapted at a faster clip.Gadfly said:
Gadfly said:
Whoops yeah.
Looking at your list one by one
FF- I have grave doubts as to whether that will make it out to N.A by next year.
KZ2- Looks great, but I wouldn't call it a guaranteed system seller yet.
GT- I'll give you that.
GTA- Not exclusive.
And no doubt that PS3 will get a big boost by 08, but I think it might be too late for Sony to recover from what the perception of PS3 is right now. Guess we'll see.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
Gadfly said:
If I'm right, though, the big multiplatform titles of '08 are just as much a threat to Sony as MS' exclusives. This month certainly seems to back up the notion.
GhaleonEB said:
It is the first real test, but I don't see it happening. Casuals will still be flocking to Wii, and the traditional hardcore will be flocking to the 360. Someone has to lose this holiday, and I can't see it being the 360 or Wii.
Gadfly said:
And I (respectfully) think you're making the mistake of assuming that the current PS2 base 1) Hasn't already started to move towards the 360/Wii and 2) that when they do move they will move to the most expensive system.
BravoSuperStar
Member
Gadfly said:
:lol
Pureauthor
Member
Gadfly said:
The PS2 base and the PS3 base are not the same base, and neither can be considered a 'Sony' base.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Nothing sells 2.5 million in the US in November+December easy. GCN dropping to $99, packing in the Zelda disc, and having $79 Black Friday deals got it about 1.9 million in November+December. Halo 2 got Xbox to about 1.7 million that holiday season. To get to 2.5 million PS3 would have to go from doing worse than they ever did to much better than they ever did, over a matter of $100.Gadfly said:
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
schuelma said:
Especially when the cheapest version doesn't allow them to upgrade in the same way the PS2 did. I remember what a massive selling point that was for the PS2, "A library of hundreds of playable games from Day 1, with enhanced graphics to boot".
Just posting now.
Wii - It's doing amazing ,and more importantly, it's doing it with no games. That right their is the proof that the controller and Wii Sports alone is selling the console. I suppose the price point is a factor as well. It will be interesting to see how man units they get out their for the holidays. If they don't ship enough, the 360 could leave again with most sold during November/December.
360 - Very strong. It's kinda crazy to read all of the people here spinning this into something not that impressive. It's proof that Halo sells systems. I believe the 360 will have a very strong holiday and the pace will be kept through December. Especially seeing how good their lineup is for the next few months.
PS3 - They're in trouble. There's really no other way to say it. I'm pretty confident they'll remain in 3rd place for the remainder of this generation for North America. It's kinda sad. I love the Playstation brand, it just seems Sony really missed their mark this time around and didn't focus on the things they should of from the start. They're gonna get pummeled this holiday.
Wii - It's doing amazing ,and more importantly, it's doing it with no games. That right their is the proof that the controller and Wii Sports alone is selling the console. I suppose the price point is a factor as well. It will be interesting to see how man units they get out their for the holidays. If they don't ship enough, the 360 could leave again with most sold during November/December.
360 - Very strong. It's kinda crazy to read all of the people here spinning this into something not that impressive. It's proof that Halo sells systems. I believe the 360 will have a very strong holiday and the pace will be kept through December. Especially seeing how good their lineup is for the next few months.
PS3 - They're in trouble. There's really no other way to say it. I'm pretty confident they'll remain in 3rd place for the remainder of this generation for North America. It's kinda sad. I love the Playstation brand, it just seems Sony really missed their mark this time around and didn't focus on the things they should of from the start. They're gonna get pummeled this holiday.
I know quite a few PS2 owners waiting for a price drop (yes I know, anecdotal evidence) . and $400 is a reasonable entry price in particular during holiday season.schuelma said:
Sony in their financial statement (and NOT PR) predicted they will sell 11 million in the current fiscal year (I believe ending June 08). and I yet to see they revising it (as MS had to do last January). If they were not on track to meet this goal, they would have said something.
vpance
Member
The size of the hardcore PS3 gaming crowd must be tiny judging from the sales. And the casual market for them is small, turned off by price and lack of knowledge of the platform due to poor marketing. It's just a fractured and uninformed userbase. Seems this wont be fixed until there's a combination of price drop, defacto AAA games and good marketing. So in other words when MGS4 comes out we'll truly be able to paint a picture of the future and potential PS3 market & userbase.