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Sony FY2015 Q1 (PS4: 3.0m shipped) PS4 total = 25.3m shipped worldwide
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
Good games?
Banjo-Kazooie
Member
Amazing numbers...truly amazing. Bravo to Sony
Yep, but the good thing about these numbers is that they don't need to. Look for them to create great bundles and LE consoles with their partnerships, but I don't think an *official* price drop should be in the cards any time soon.
The demand for PS4 is still insane, and this is not the time to lower the price of the console *permanently* when people are showing they are more than willing to buy it at the current price.
Yep, but the good thing about these numbers is that they don't need to. Look for them to create great bundles and LE consoles with their partnerships, but I don't think an *official* price drop should be in the cards any time soon.
The demand for PS4 is still insane, and this is not the time to lower the price of the console *permanently* when people are showing they are more than willing to buy it at the current price.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Exclusives matter just not as much as some people think and only a few unless it a genre of games.
All the big IPs that were exclusives now multi anyway .
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
It makes me pancakes for breakfast. Who knew?
We on a gaming forum breh.
The Mad Draklor
Member
It's a games console.
eerik9000
Member
Mark your calendar. October 27th ,2015. Paris, France. Just in time for holidays, on the same day as Halo 5 launch.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Of course but the other side of the argument is that a lot of people got PS4 over Xbox so the game sales will be higher, as more people own PS4's than Xbox One.
Clearly not everyone agrees but it's just an opinion. I like to see things from both sides as I'm not someone who only loves my PS4 it's easy for people to be biased towards their favourite console and while PS4 is my main console of choice this gen, doesn't mean I can't say good things about my Wii U or Xbox One. I'm a gamer who likes games on all platforms.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
That would be one for the ages.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
i liek there cameras
Omnistalgic
Member
Nice sum up top from Zhuge. I don't think Sony needs to do anything but bundle software and PSN subs at the $400 price point. I think if they are phasing out the 500gb model, then that one can be bundled at a $350 price point.
Really don't think they should get into mass market prices until they have a mass market hit. Need a Wii sports/Singstar like game to bundle in for more casual gamers to take not of consoles.
Will that be Morphesus? Meh, I'm very 50/50 on it. Potentially it really looks like Sony may have a Wii like moment (though not as crazy probably more like Kinect) but its not impulse buy yet over $300. So, even If word of mouth is saying this VR thing is amazing, people aren't going to be rushing out to spend $500 on a fun Friday night. Smartphones and tablets are different, serve way more purposes.
Really don't think they should get into mass market prices until they have a mass market hit. Need a Wii sports/Singstar like game to bundle in for more casual gamers to take not of consoles.
Will that be Morphesus? Meh, I'm very 50/50 on it. Potentially it really looks like Sony may have a Wii like moment (though not as crazy probably more like Kinect) but its not impulse buy yet over $300. So, even If word of mouth is saying this VR thing is amazing, people aren't going to be rushing out to spend $500 on a fun Friday night. Smartphones and tablets are different, serve way more purposes.
Devilgunman
Member
Banjo-Kazooie
Member
Out of curiosity, are we just narrowing down these exclusives to just what Sony and Microsoft themselves have published, or are we going to expand the scope which explains why the PS4 holds such an advantage over the Xbox One?
Ya'll just miss my post about price drops on the last page.....? Oh.... ok.... 
Oh yay! You read it haha.
I agree with your thoughts on Morpheus but don't want to comment too much until closer to launch. Right now I see it selling like EyeToy for PS2 rather than like Kinect for 360. If you know what I mean.
But ask me again in 2016 and I'll give you a more detailed answer.
Oh yay! You read it haha.
I agree with your thoughts on Morpheus but don't want to comment too much until closer to launch. Right now I see it selling like EyeToy for PS2 rather than like Kinect for 360. If you know what I mean.
But ask me again in 2016 and I'll give you a more detailed answer.
Banjo-Kazooie
Member
Totally agree about the niche and all by the way, but here are my thoughts..
Now, I don't know how this is possible, but what they need to do is get the things in people's hands. I was a huge skeptic on VR, but after trying Morpheus at E3 I was blown away. I played a game called Headmaster's which was basically me heading soccer balsl into the net and hitting targets. Something as simple as this activity brought so much joy to me.
They need to find some way to get people to try it. They are doing a great job at trade shows, but really should look into touring around college's, shopping malls, something. Again, not sure how feasible it is, but it's really something that once you try, it will just click and you can't throw away your money fast enough/
anexanhume
Member
Ya'll just miss my post about price drops on the last page.....? Oh.... ok....
Oh yay! You read it haha.
I agree with your thoughts on Morpheus but don't want to comment too much until closer to launch. Right now I see it selling like EyeToy for PS2 rather than like Kinect for 360. If you know what I mean.
Personally I try not to litter threads with "I agree"
Ya'll just miss my post about price drops on the last page.....? Oh.... ok....
*Zhuge fades away slowly, walking into the distant horizon*
Even i gotta admit from a business standpoint sony and the ps4 are in an interesting and win/win situation
A they can go thru the holiday at $399 and try to earn maximum profit of reduced hardware, releasing most big game bundles and add ons... battlefront bundle with game 2 controllers and camera for $399.
B they can drop price by $50 on bundles and gain revenue thru software and ps plus
C probably even do a combination of both 400 dollar game bundles and 349 solo console.
They guys at sony who have to make these decisions are probably going to be crunching numbers and speculating scenerios for the next few months
A they can go thru the holiday at $399 and try to earn maximum profit of reduced hardware, releasing most big game bundles and add ons... battlefront bundle with game 2 controllers and camera for $399.
B they can drop price by $50 on bundles and gain revenue thru software and ps plus
C probably even do a combination of both 400 dollar game bundles and 349 solo console.
They guys at sony who have to make these decisions are probably going to be crunching numbers and speculating scenerios for the next few months
Maybe your argument was way too ironclad for a rebuttal? Personally speaking, I think we'll see a $50 price drop for Sony.Ya'll just miss my post about price drops on the last page.....? Oh.... ok....
I'm rather curious what special deals MS will pull during the holidays. Was it Walmart or BestBuy that had a gift card with every purchase?
Yautja_Warrior
Member
My original point was that exclusives don't seem to matter as much this gen, with Sony selling much more with strong 3rd party support and in most cases the best version of a gane due to PS4 being more powerful.
This is a sales thread about Sony's popular home console. Troll less if you are not interested in this type of discussion.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Ya'll just miss my post about price drops on the last page.....? Oh.... ok....
Oh yay! You read it haha.
I agree with your thoughts on Morpheus but don't want to comment too much until closer to launch. Right now I see it selling like EyeToy for PS2 rather than like Kinect for 360. If you know what I mean.
But ask me again in 2016 and I'll give you a more detailed answer.
I was just reading it as you posted this, lol.
I agree completely with what you said.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Those games dont count(reasons)
Sangetsu-II
Member
God I love this :dead:
Bitch Pudding
Member
Ya'll just miss my post about price drops on the last page.....? Oh.... ok....
Dont worry, some of us didn't. And I do not agree with you.
There won't be an official price cut, neither for PS4 nor for XBOX One this CALENDAR year. This doesn't change the very high probability of global available holiday offers below 300 $/€ for both consoles, esp. for the rest of the 500 GB model.
I asume a PS4 price cut during CY Q1/2016 resp. FY Q4/2015. This is the time Uncharted 4 should turn up.
Concerning holiday, I see a higher probaility of a XBOX One price cut, most likely combined with Halo 5, which would give them their much needed holiday boost...
SupperCrunch
Member
The PS4 continues to exceed expectations! Considering that it hasn't even reached those price-sensitive consumers that balk at a $400 price-point, I'd say that it probably will reach around 33-34 million shipped by the end of the year, but maybe it might reach 36 or 37 million if a worldwide price cut is on the cards!
I'm not so sure if they will drop the price this year-- at least, not by 100 dollars/euros/pounds. Sony has been focusing on consolidation and profit-maximization, and I think that-- especially with these great results-- they might still be at a point where it makes business sense to keep the price as high as consumers will bear at this time.
What I'm still confused about, though, is the fact that in these "pre-season" quarters, Sony can out-ship Microsoft in terms of PS4s and XB1s by a factor of almost 3:1, but in terms of sold-through numbers, it's only outselling the Xbox One by a factor of roughly 1.9:1...I assume it's due to the differing shipping strategies between Microsoft and Sony and the regions they're in-- Microsoft has seen larger spikes in the holidays with the Xbox One compared to Sony with the PS4, and it seems that they tend to ship the bulk of their units in the holiday to last in the following quarters (as evidenced by the AC bundles), but perhaps there is something else I'm missing here?
Also, as a postscript, Zhuge, I'd like to thank you for the amount of information you've displayed on sales in this thread. I received posting privileges a couple days ago, but I have lurked since before you joined Sales-Age, I think all of us have been much better informed on the state of the console industry. Rest assured, I aim not to spread my opinion as fact like some other fallen members have!
I'm not so sure if they will drop the price this year-- at least, not by 100 dollars/euros/pounds. Sony has been focusing on consolidation and profit-maximization, and I think that-- especially with these great results-- they might still be at a point where it makes business sense to keep the price as high as consumers will bear at this time.
What I'm still confused about, though, is the fact that in these "pre-season" quarters, Sony can out-ship Microsoft in terms of PS4s and XB1s by a factor of almost 3:1, but in terms of sold-through numbers, it's only outselling the Xbox One by a factor of roughly 1.9:1...I assume it's due to the differing shipping strategies between Microsoft and Sony and the regions they're in-- Microsoft has seen larger spikes in the holidays with the Xbox One compared to Sony with the PS4, and it seems that they tend to ship the bulk of their units in the holiday to last in the following quarters (as evidenced by the AC bundles), but perhaps there is something else I'm missing here?
Also, as a postscript, Zhuge, I'd like to thank you for the amount of information you've displayed on sales in this thread. I received posting privileges a couple days ago, but I have lurked since before you joined Sales-Age, I think all of us have been much better informed on the state of the console industry. Rest assured, I aim not to spread my opinion as fact like some other fallen members have!
googleplex
Member
I think we'll see a $349 PS4 with a game included this holiday season.
Then a $499 Morpheus bundle that includes the PS4 Camara next year. No major software included but the Playroom VR update.
Pancakes R Us
Member
Well done, Sony. Hooray for dedicated console gaming!
Nobody is pre-stocking the stores for the holidays just yet. That will happen either in calendar Q3 or directly in Q4.
Sony is simply shipping more because they are selling more worldwide, while 3/4 of MS stock is going to US and UK where they still have notable sales ratios vs PS4.
Omnistalgic
Member
anecdotal of course but that's a powerful statement. I think it does mean there is a market for it at least. Just have to wait and see. There certainly has been articles about how natural and fun the soccer game was. I think the model is already set with Nintendo, Wii sports was the best thing that ever happened to them. A bundle of 4 of the best VR experiences plus some AAA stuff like NMS and Dreams could make morpheus very attractive.
Zhuge made an interesting comparison as well, eye toy was a slow and steady burner if memory serves me, I don't think Sony has a problem with that.
I'm seeing a slightly higher than expected number of people who seem to be against a PS4 price cut. There's some confusion as to what a price cut would accomplish when the PS4 is outselling the competition at $400. I'm not sure if it has been explained already, but here's a way to look at a PS4 price cut.
The price cut is not for the purpose of beating the Xbox One in console sales. That is already happening and will continue to happen for the remainder of the generation (barring any unforeseen disasters of course). The price cut is for the purpose of growing the PS4 installbase a.k.a increasing the marketshare. Why is higher marketshare important? Higher marketshare means you have a much higher opportunity to make a lot of money.
Take a second and think about how Sony makes money through software sales, PS+ subscriptions, movie and tv show downloads, accessory sales etc. When you buy a PS4, you're not just buying a console; you're buying into the PlayStation ecosystem. The exact same thing applies to iPhones, iPads, Apple TV, you name it. The more people you have in your ecosystem the higher the opportunity to make a lot of money.
NOTE: The following is a deliberate simplification of manufacturing, pricing, and consumer behavior. Hopefully it will help a few people in understanding how a price cut can benefit a business.
Let's look at the holiday season. For example (all of these numbers are hypothetical), let's say EA projects to sell 6 million copies of Star Wars: Battlefront on PS4. Let's say Sony makes $18 on each copy of Battlefront that is sold. That's $108M for Sony. Now let's say there are 2 million PS3 users who are diehard Star Wars fans who want to buy and play Battlefront on PS4, but can't afford the PS4 at it's current price. If those 2 million people had a PS4, Battlefront on PS4 would sell 8 million copies instead of 6 million, making Sony $144M instead of $108M. Do you start to see why a cheaper console can lead to more money?
Let's double-down on this hypothetical stuff and say Sony currently makes $140 on every new PS4 that is sold at $400. A price cut to $300 means Sony will now make $40 on every new PS4 that is sold. Let's say Sony projects to sell 6 million consoles, at $400, during the holiday season. That's $840M. If Sony cuts the price to $300, they project to sell 10 million consoles during the season. That's $400M. Sony have now 'lost' $440M.
How do they make 440M back?
Those 2 million diehard Star Wars fans already made Sony $36M more than they would through software sales, so the $440M loss is now a $404M loss. Those 2 million diehard Star Wars fans will need a PS+ subscription to play multiplayer. They opt for 12 months of PS+, so they pay the full $50. Sony makes a crisp $100M dollars, reducing their loss of $404M to $304M. Out of those 2 million fans, 1.7million have close friends and or siblings who will be in town for holiday eggnog, so they choose to buy an extra controller at $60. Let's say it costs Sony $20 to make a DualShock 4 controller -- $40 is what Sony pockets. Sony makes $68M through the joy of multiplayer, bringing their loss of $304M down to $236M.
Now let's say that 1.5 million out of the 4 million people (who will buy a PS4 at $300) enjoy playing games and listening to music exclusively via headphones. Those 1.5 million people choose to buy the official PS4 headset at $80. Let's say it costs Sony $10 to make the Gold headset. Sony makes $105M, cutting their loss of $236M down to $131M. Out of those 1.5 million headset owners, 500,000 of them are so impressed by the craftsmanship and functionality of the headset that they recommend the headset to their family and friends who have PS4s. 500,000 curious people go out and buy the headset, bringing in $35M to Sony. The loss is now at $96M.
$96M to make back. Let's say that 1.5 million out of that new 4 million userbase are Call of Duty fans who bought a PS4 just for BLOPS 3. Let's say Sony makes the same $18 on each copy of BLOPS 3. Sony ends up making an additional $27M on BLOPS 3 sales strictly through 1.5 million new users. The loss is now at $69M. Giggity. Out of those 1.5 million users, half of them want to play multiplayer and multiplayer alone on BLOPS. 750,000 people whip out their wallet and spend $50 on a 12 month PS+ subscription -- they're going to play COD until another COD comes out. $37.5M is what Sony makes, and this brings the $69M loss down to $31.5M. 300,000 of those who play COD multiplayer choose to do so with headphones, and since they just got a shiny new PS4, now would be the perfect time to get the official PS4 headset. At $80 a pop ($70 after manufacturing costs), 300,000 users pump an extra $21M into Sony.
The loss is now at $10.5M. Out of those 4 million new PS4 users, 350,000 of them (who could not care less about COD or Star Wars) decide to buy Rocket League due to the extraordinary positive word of mouth around the game. It's Christmas time, and a family-friendly game is just what nana can get into. 200,000 of them decide to buy 2 extra controllers to play Rocket League. At $60 per controller ($40 after manufacturing), Sony makes $16M.
There is no more loss. Now factor in sales of DLC, additional subscriptions, sales of Metal Gear Solid V, Assassins Creed, Destiny, FIFA, Disney Infinity, Madden, Fallout, Just Cause, etc. and you'll quickly realize how increased marketshare can lead to champagne-worthy financial statements.
The price cut is not for the purpose of beating the Xbox One in console sales. That is already happening and will continue to happen for the remainder of the generation (barring any unforeseen disasters of course). The price cut is for the purpose of growing the PS4 installbase a.k.a increasing the marketshare. Why is higher marketshare important? Higher marketshare means you have a much higher opportunity to make a lot of money.
Take a second and think about how Sony makes money through software sales, PS+ subscriptions, movie and tv show downloads, accessory sales etc. When you buy a PS4, you're not just buying a console; you're buying into the PlayStation ecosystem. The exact same thing applies to iPhones, iPads, Apple TV, you name it. The more people you have in your ecosystem the higher the opportunity to make a lot of money.
NOTE: The following is a deliberate simplification of manufacturing, pricing, and consumer behavior. Hopefully it will help a few people in understanding how a price cut can benefit a business.
Let's look at the holiday season. For example (all of these numbers are hypothetical), let's say EA projects to sell 6 million copies of Star Wars: Battlefront on PS4. Let's say Sony makes $18 on each copy of Battlefront that is sold. That's $108M for Sony. Now let's say there are 2 million PS3 users who are diehard Star Wars fans who want to buy and play Battlefront on PS4, but can't afford the PS4 at it's current price. If those 2 million people had a PS4, Battlefront on PS4 would sell 8 million copies instead of 6 million, making Sony $144M instead of $108M. Do you start to see why a cheaper console can lead to more money?
Let's double-down on this hypothetical stuff and say Sony currently makes $140 on every new PS4 that is sold at $400. A price cut to $300 means Sony will now make $40 on every new PS4 that is sold. Let's say Sony projects to sell 6 million consoles, at $400, during the holiday season. That's $840M. If Sony cuts the price to $300, they project to sell 10 million consoles during the season. That's $400M. Sony have now 'lost' $440M.
How do they make 440M back?
Those 2 million diehard Star Wars fans already made Sony $36M more than they would through software sales, so the $440M loss is now a $404M loss. Those 2 million diehard Star Wars fans will need a PS+ subscription to play multiplayer. They opt for 12 months of PS+, so they pay the full $50. Sony makes a crisp $100M dollars, reducing their loss of $404M to $304M. Out of those 2 million fans, 1.7million have close friends and or siblings who will be in town for holiday eggnog, so they choose to buy an extra controller at $60. Let's say it costs Sony $20 to make a DualShock 4 controller -- $40 is what Sony pockets. Sony makes $68M through the joy of multiplayer, bringing their loss of $304M down to $236M.
Now let's say that 1.5 million out of the 4 million people (who will buy a PS4 at $300) enjoy playing games and listening to music exclusively via headphones. Those 1.5 million people choose to buy the official PS4 headset at $80. Let's say it costs Sony $10 to make the Gold headset. Sony makes $105M, cutting their loss of $236M down to $131M. Out of those 1.5 million headset owners, 500,000 of them are so impressed by the craftsmanship and functionality of the headset that they recommend the headset to their family and friends who have PS4s. 500,000 curious people go out and buy the headset, bringing in $35M to Sony. The loss is now at $96M.
$96M to make back. Let's say that 1.5 million out of that new 4 million userbase are Call of Duty fans who bought a PS4 just for BLOPS 3. Let's say Sony makes the same $18 on each copy of BLOPS 3. Sony ends up making an additional $27M on BLOPS 3 sales strictly through 1.5 million new users. The loss is now at $69M. Giggity. Out of those 1.5 million users, half of them want to play multiplayer and multiplayer alone on BLOPS. 750,000 people whip out their wallet and spend $50 on a 12 month PS+ subscription -- they're going to play COD until another COD comes out. $37.5M is what Sony makes, and this brings the $69M loss down to $31.5M. 300,000 of those who play COD multiplayer choose to do so with headphones, and since they just got a shiny new PS4, now would be the perfect time to get the official PS4 headset. At $80 a pop ($70 after manufacturing costs), 300,000 users pump an extra $21M into Sony.
The loss is now at $10.5M. Out of those 4 million new PS4 users, 350,000 of them (who could not care less about COD or Star Wars) decide to buy Rocket League due to the extraordinary positive word of mouth around the game. It's Christmas time, and a family-friendly game is just what nana can get into. 200,000 of them decide to buy 2 extra controllers to play Rocket League. At $60 per controller ($40 after manufacturing), Sony makes $16M.
There is no more loss. Now factor in sales of DLC, additional subscriptions, sales of Metal Gear Solid V, Assassins Creed, Destiny, FIFA, Disney Infinity, Madden, Fallout, Just Cause, etc. and you'll quickly realize how increased marketshare can lead to champagne-worthy financial statements.
Funnily enough, in terms of early software being built, there's a lot to parallel VR with EyeToy and the other motion platforms since. But IMO the early-adopter audiences for it are completely different - both in terms of user-longevity and expectations (the later is the biggest threat to VR if things got off to a bad start).ZhugeEX said:
This is not the only price drop scenario. This is how it will play out.
<Andrew House enters the office of Kaz Hirai>
House: "Kaz... can I speak to you for a moment?"
<Kaz Hirai swivels around in his huge chair while smoking a cigar like Hannibal from the A-Team>
<Kaz nods and gestures to the cigar case which is adorned with the letters "Ba1" in the font of The Order 1886>
House: "No thanks. They give me diarrhea."
(This is the moment he has been practiced all pre-season.)
"As you know I've gone over the excel sheets and recently I checked insider forums with lots of gray usernames I have a plan and it will involve significant monetary sacrifice but listen to me and you'll understand."
<House takes a deep breath.>
House: "I want to gifs of myself on NeoGAF."
<Kaz swivels back around.>
Kaz: "I understand. Whatever it takes."
And that's how the MSRP for the PS4 is dropped to 299.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Can't argue with this either.
Kagoshima_Luke
Gold Member
Great sales, but looking at that graph, I'll be watching this year's sales performance carefully. Sales are already trending down , potentially dropping below the PS2's pace in the coming year. Sony's holiday line up is a little flat, while MS has some heavy hitters. Things will get interesting, that's for sure.
Pristine_Condition
Member
Should read: "Update Some graphs in this story were originally posted with incorrect axes, making the relative differences in console sales look incorrect. Ars regrets getting caught by sharp-eyed readers."
Have a look at this for an estimate of what that graph should look like through March 2016.
http://i481.photobucket.com/albums/rr180/jabbamk1/FORECAST PS4_zpse63ux0cs.jpg~original
PoweredByHentai
Member
If this actually happens, you will be a god amongst men.
SolidSnakex
Member
Keep in mind that at this point in the PS2's life it was already $200 cheaper than the PS4. It had its first pricedrop in May of 2002.