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[Darth Smurf X]

Those 2 million diehard Star Wars fans already made Sony $36M more than they would through software sales, so the $440M loss is now a $404M loss. Those 2 million diehard Star Wars fans will need a PS+ subscription to play multiplayer. They opt for 12 months of PS+, so they pay the full $50. Sony makes a crisp $100M dollars, reducing their loss of $404M to $304M. Out of those 2 million fans, 1.7million have close friends and or siblings who will be in town for holiday eggnog, so they choose to buy an extra controller at $60. Let's say it costs Sony $20 to make a DualShock 4 controller -- $40 is what Sony pockets. Sony makes $68M through the joy of multiplayer, bringing their loss of $304M down to $236M.

DICE just made Sony $68M by including split-screen. Take that Halo 5!

I'm joking.

But seriously, split-screen Halo was one of the best things that game had. It's a real shame to see that go.

What were we talking about again? Oh yeah, Zhuge's pretty graphs. I'd love to see you animate some. Please?

 

[orthodoxy1095]

If only Sunset sold as much as the number of times people bring it up as proof Sony has no games.

Oh damn.

 

[labaronx]

This is not the only price drop scenario. This is how it will play out.

<Andrew House enters the office of Kaz Hirai>
House: "Kaz... can I speak to you for a moment?"
<Kaz Hirai swivels around in his huge chair while smoking a cigar like Hannibal from the A-Team>
<Kaz nods and gestures to the cigar case which is adorned with the letters "Ba1" in the font of The Order 1886>
House: "No thanks. They give me diarrhea."
(This is the moment he has been practiced all pre-season.)
"As you know I've gone over the excel sheets and recently I checked insider forums with lots of gray usernames I have a plan and it will involve significant monetary sacrifice but listen to me and you'll understand."
<House takes a deep breath.>
House: "I want to gifs of myself on NeoGAF."
<Kaz swivels back around.>
Kaz: "I understand. Whatever it takes."

And that's how the MSRP for the PS4 is dropped to 299.

I know i said 50 because im being conservative lol

 

[googleplex]

Funnily enough, in terms of early software being built, there's a lot to parallel VR with EyeToy and the other motion platforms since. But IMO the early-adopter audiences for it are completely different - both in terms of user-longevity and expectations (the later is the biggest threat to VR if things got off to a bad start).

PS2 EyeToy sold 10 million plus units. If Morpheus, Oculus or Vive sold 10 million units it was be a huge success for VR.

 

[spatenfloot]

Why is he excluding Japan numbers anyway? They're some of the most accurate we have.

Because in Japan, the PSTV outsells the Xbone.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I'm probably being a pain in the ass, but is there any chance you could create a chart of your projections for PS4 through the generation in comparison to the actual results for the 360 and PS2 in a similar format?

I feel like it might be interesting to compare to the previous best efforts for both Sony and Microsoft.

http://i.imgur.com/FkG3n04.jpg

What were we talking about again? Oh yeah, Zhuge's pretty graphs. I'd love to see you animate some. Please?

You need to be part of GAF Gold to see the animated versions.

 

[Neuromancer]

Am I not understanding something...what is the infatuation with Sony?

Because it's the only system #forthegamers™.

 

[SupperCrunch]

Nobody is pre-stocking the stores for the holidays just yet. That will happen either in calendar Q3 or directly in Q4.

Sony is simply shipping more because they are selling more worldwide, while 3/4 of MS stock is going to US and UK where they still have notable sales ratios vs PS4.

I agree that the shipments in this quarter are primarily geared towards sales that occur in this quarter and perhaps the next quarter, which ends as the holiday season starts. If what you said was true for each quarter-- that Sony was shipping more than Microsoft worldwide simply because they were selling-through more-- than the difference between the two would be much more than 2:1, which I don't think will be true, at least in the near-term.

Take a second and think about how Sony makes money through software sales, PS+ subscriptions, movie and tv show downloads, accessory sales etc. When you buy a PS4, you're not just buying a console; you're buying into the PlayStation ecosystem. The exact same thing applies to iPhones, iPads, Apple TV, you name it. The more people you have in your ecosystem the higher the opportunity to make a lot of money.

I agree that a lot of money on potential losses can be recouped through additional game and subscription sales, but I think the analogy doesn't work completely, mainly because the sales leader of last generation -- the Wii-- remained profitable from the get-go throughout the generation. Also, most Apple devices which you alluded to remain are profitable from day-one. Also, it does seem like Sony is focusing on a profit-first mentality, rather than how they conducted themselves during the PS3 and PS2 days... just my thoughts on the matter.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Personally I try not to litter threads with "I agree"

Fair enough haha.

*Zhuge fades away slowly, walking into the distant horizon*

Noooooo!

Maybe your argument was way too ironclad for a rebuttal? Personally speaking, I think we'll see a $50 price drop for Sony.

I'm rather curious what special deals MS will pull during the holidays. Was it Walmart or BestBuy that had a gift card with every purchase?

Well the intention was to see if people agree/disagree or had the same/different thoughts.

I think there will certainly be one off and retail specific deals but in terms of an actual price cut I'm not sure.

I was just reading it as you posted this, lol.

I agree completely with what you said.

Cheers.

Dont worry, some of us didn't. And I do not agree with you.

There won't be an official price cut, neither for PS4 nor for XBOX One this CALENDAR year. This doesn't change the very high probability of global available holiday offers below 300 $/€ for both consoles, esp. for the rest of the 500 GB model.

I asume a PS4 price cut during CY Q1/2016 resp. FY Q4/2015. This is the time Uncharted 4 should turn up.

Concerning holiday, I see a higher probaility of a XBOX One price cut, most likely combined with Halo 5, which would give them their much needed holiday boost...

Interesting, thanks for taking the time to reply. I agree that there is a high chance of no price cut but I'm not too sure I agree with you that Xbox On is of a higher probability to get an official drop.

I do think that MS will want to avoid another situation where they are losing money having dropped the price yet again and I'm sure in the US at least that Halo and their holiday line up will push sales for them without the need of a price drop.

I am split on PS4 but am leaning towards a price drop this year. If not then just bundles.

Also, as a postscript, Zhuge, I'd like to thank you for the amount of information you've displayed on sales in this thread. I received posting privileges a couple days ago, but I have lurked since before you joined Sales-Age, I think all of us have been much better informed on the state of the console industry. Rest assured, I aim not to spread my opinion as fact like some other fallen members have!

Thanks mate. Appreciate the kind words.

Welcome to the forum and hope you enjoy it here.

Zhuge made an interesting comparison as well, eye toy was a slow and steady burner if memory serves me, I don't think Sony has a problem with that.

Funnily enough, in terms of early software being built, there's a lot to parallel VR with EyeToy and the other motion platforms since. But IMO the early-adopter audiences for it are completely different - both in terms of user-longevity and expectations (the later is the biggest threat to VR if things got off to a bad start).

I agree, It will be slow and steady in terms of how eyetoy was and not like how everyone wanted kinect or a wii for example. But Like I said, too early to say right now, that is just my initial thoughts.

I do agree that the audience will be different. Eyetoy was more aimed at families and social interactive experiences. Where as Morpheus is aimed at the core gamer and core social interaction.

 

[cakely]

Forza 5, Forza Horizon 2, Sunset Overdrive, Dead Rising 3, Halo Collection, Killer Instinct to name a few.

Most people agree that MS had stronger exclusives so far, as Sony's exclusives have been good but definitely not up to the standard they put out on PS3, and some have been a bit poor too.

Hoo boy.

"Most people", interesting. How scientific was your survey?

 

[Pathfinder]

Forza 5, Forza Horizon 2, Sunset Overdrive, Dead Rising 3, Halo Collection, Killer Instinct to name a few.

Most people agree that MS had stronger exclusives so far, as Sony's exclusives have been good but definitely not up to the standard they put out on PS3, and some have been a bit poor too.

Them's fighting words in a Sony thread. Watch your step...

 

[Jigorath]

Them's fighting words in a Sony thread. Watch your step...

Please, elaborate.

 

[Darth Smurf X]

Hoo boy.

"Most people", interesting. How scientific was your survey?

He went to GameFAQs and polled the Fighter Within board.

 

[spatenfloot]

Hoo boy.

"Most people", interesting. How scientific was your survey?

He probably has a bar graph showing it.

 

[Moonstone]

Forza 5, Forza Horizon 2, Sunset Overdrive, Dead Rising 3, Halo Collection, Killer Instinct to name a few.

Most people agree that MS had stronger exclusives so far, as Sony's exclusives have been good but definitely not up to the standard they put out on PS3, and some have been a bit poor too.

Shaka, when the Titans fell.

 

[Pathfinder]

Please, elaborate.

Well, generally one wouldn't really want to step into a Sony or Microsoft thread and start touting how much better they think the exclusives on the other side of the fence are.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Please, elaborate.

 

[chalex010]

http://i.imgur.com/FkG3n04.jpg

You are my hero.

Looking at the graph it looks like you are expecting a decent sized increase YOY 2015-2016 but rather modest growth thereafter. Looking at the 360 we see some acceleration from 2009 - 2011 (I'd assume kinect based?) and big jumps from the PS2 from 2001-2002 and again 2004-2005.

I would assume your projections are based on price drops maintaining a sales pace but not substantially growing the market and Morpheus being a relatively un-impactful non-starter? I'm curious what people expect the absolute top end to be for systems in the current gen and what sort of serendipitous happenstance it would take to get there.

 

[Newtype-001]

If only Sunset sold as much as the number of times people bring it up as proof Sony has no games.

He went to GameFAQs and polled the Fighter Within board.

 

[Jigorath]

Well, generally one wouldn't really want to step into a Sony or Microsoft thread and start touting how much better they think the exclusives on the other side of the fence are.

lol, ok.

 

[Death2494]

Sony just had a YOY growth for the previous quarter. If you're sitting on the board, I can't imagine you wanting to drop the price when sales have increased.

 

[thuway]

I really hope Sony takes the profit they are making and begins to expand first party studios and create new ones. They need to consider just how important first party can be going forward.

 

[ZhugeEX]

You are my hero.

Looking at the graph it looks like you are expecting a decent sized increase YOY 2015-2016 but rather modest growth thereafter. Looking at the 360 we see some acceleration from 2009 - 2011 (I'd assume kinect based?) and big jumps from the PS2 from 2001-2002 and again 2004-2005.

I would assume your projections are based on price drops maintaining a sales pace but not substantially growing the market and Morpheus being a relatively un-impactful non-starter? I'm curious what people expect the absolute top end to be for systems in the current gen and what sort of serendipitous happenstance it would take to get there.

Kinect launched in 2010 which accounts for the 360 bump.

IN 2001-2002 we saw PS2 get past production issues and really start to sell in to Western and Eastern markets.

In 2004 there was Sony's big push for the casual gamer through aggressive $149 pricing and bundles and it worked as casuals started to buy the console more/as well rather than just core gamers.

My PS4 projections are based on 2015 and 2016 being the peak years for PlayStation due to the overall contraction of the market, focus on early adoptors/core gamers buying early and lack of casual take up in later years. However please bear in mind that this forecast does not take into account Morpheus being a success, NX launch or any other external factor that can cause sales to surge/decrease.

Also it is just a projection and of course the further you go out the more inaccurate it can get. Whilst I do yearly forecasts which I believe are very accurate, these types of projections may end up completely wrong.

Ultimately the projection I've gone for in this generation is that there is going to be an install base of 150 million by end of 2019 across PS4/XB1 and Wii U. Compared to last gen which had a 280m install base LTD and gen 5 which had 210m install base LTD.

 

[googleplex]

Shaka, when the Titans fell.

Iunderstoodthatreference.gif

 

[benny_a]

I really hope Sony takes the profit they are making and begins to expand first party studios and create new ones. They need to consider just how important first party can be going forward.

If they begin to expand first party you won't see those effects until 2018 at the earliest and by then console are done.

 

[Kagoshima_Luke]

Have a look at this for an estimate of what that graph should look like through March 2016.

http://i481.photobucket.com/albums/rr180/jabbamk1/FORECAST PS4_zpse63ux0cs.jpg~original

Thanks. I hope those estimates play out. I know it's not a HUGE deal if the PS4 falls below the PS2's pace, but it's just so amazing to see it stay ahead, especially considering how well the PS2 did.

 

[anexanhume]

Kinect launched in 2010 which accounts for the 360 bump.

IN 2001-2002 we saw PS2 get past production issues and really start to sell in to Western and Eastern markets.

In 2004 there was Sony's big push for the casual gamer through aggressive $149 pricing and bundles and it worked as casuals started to buy the console more/as well rather than just core gamers.

My PS4 projections are based on 2015 and 2016 being the peak years for PlayStation due to the overall contraction of the market, focus on early adoptors/core gamers buying early and lack of casual take up in later years. However please bear in mind that this forecast does not take into account Morpheus being a success, NX launch or any other external factor that can cause sales to surge/decrease.

Also it is just a projection and of course the further you go out the more inaccurate it can get. Whilst I do yearly forecasts which I believe are very accurate, these types of projections may end up completely wrong.

Ultimately the projection I've gone for in this generation is that there is going to be an install base of 150 million by end of 2019 across PS4/XB1 and Wii U. Compared to last gen which had a 280m install base LTD and gen 5 which had 210m install base LTD.

I wonder if it would make sense to weight sales curves by ASP of hardware? Price sensitive consumers don't have an option below 300 still for this generation.

 

[thuway]

If they begin to expand first party you won't see those effects until 2018 at the earliest and by then console are done.

I don't think so. I don't think any console manufacturer right now is looking to jump this generation into the next one. Not when developers are still struggling to release a next-gen only title.

2020 at the earliest. The more we wait, the better.

 

[Y2Kev]

MOST IMPORTANTLY this means THE ORDER was a HUGE success and haters have been annihilated by the glorious power of Sony. I am looking forward--nay, I am sitting on the edge of my seat with baited breath-- for the announcement verily of a SEQUEL to THE GAME OF THE YEAR THE ORDER 1886 in which MORE HATERS will be annihilated. STEP UP to the ANNIHILATION LIGHT HATERS for it is your time to be made WRONG AND CORRECTED.

 

[DeepEnigma]

MOST IMPORTANTLY this means THE ORDER was a HUGE success and haters have been annihilated by the glorious power of Sony. I am looking forward--nay, I am sitting on the edge of my seat with baited breath-- for the announcement verily of a SEQUEL to THE GAME OF THE YEAR THE ORDER 1886 in which MORE HATERS will be annihilated. STEP UP to the ANNIHILATION LIGHT HATERS for it is your time to be made WRONG AND CORRECTED.

But, I want a sequel

 

[benny_a]

I don't think so. I don't think any console manufacturer right now is looking to jump this generation into the next one. Not when developers are still struggling to release a next-gen only title.

2020 at the earliest. The more we wait, the better.

I mean if you want them to begin expanding first party studios based on this those newly created studios will take until 2018 to even be on your radar.

The point: It's too late now to start.

First party strategy was either a long term thing from the start or it wasn't. You can't just switch it on and suddenly have a new studio.

 

[ZhugeEX]

MOST IMPORTANTLY this means THE ORDER was a HUGE success and haters have been annihilated by the glorious power of Sony. I am looking forward--nay, I am sitting on the edge of my seat with baited breath-- for the announcement verily of a SEQUEL to THE GAME OF THE YEAR THE ORDER 1886 in which MORE HATERS will be annihilated. STEP UP to the ANNIHILATION LIGHT HATERS for it is your time to be made WRONG AND CORRECTED.

How about a Prequel?

Assassin’s Creed: Syndicate, the new title is going to be set in the Industrial Revolution-era London in 1868.

 

[Shin-Ra]

Dem Ars Technica charts. Analysis: Sony pushes past 50 percent of the worldwide console market

I like Ars, but it seems kinda goofy to make it look like Xbone is one quarter behind in worldwide shipments ("excluding Japan"

Spoiler

lol

).

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I really hope Sony takes the profit they are making and begins to expand first party studios and create new ones. They need to consider just how important first party can be going forward.

I think Sony already realizes how 1st party development is to a platform. I'm not sure they need any additional ones right now although I think Quantic Dream would be a good addition.

 

[vinnygambini]

MOST IMPORTANTLY this means THE ORDER was a HUGE success and haters have been annihilated by the glorious power of Sony. I am looking forward--nay, I am sitting on the edge of my seat with baited breath-- for the announcement verily of a SEQUEL to THE GAME OF THE YEAR THE ORDER 1886 in which MORE HATERS will be annihilated. STEP UP to the ANNIHILATION LIGHT HATERS for it is your time to be made WRONG AND CORRECTED.

Step aside Y2Kev, I want a prequel to The Last Guardian.

 

[chalex010]

Kinect launched in 2010 which accounts for the 360 bump.

IN 2001-2002 we saw PS2 get past production issues and really start to sell in to Western and Eastern markets.

In 2004 there was Sony's big push for the casual gamer through aggressive $149 pricing and bundles and it worked as casuals started to buy the console more/as well rather than just core gamers.

My PS4 projections are based on 2015 and 2016 being the peak years for PlayStation due to the overall contraction of the market, focus on early adoptors/core gamers buying early and lack of casual take up in later years. However please bear in mind that this forecast does not take into account Morpheus being a success, NX launch or any other external factor that can cause sales to surge/decrease.

Also it is just a projection and of course the further you go out the more inaccurate it can get. Whilst I do yearly forecasts which I believe are very accurate, these types of projections may end up completely wrong.

Ultimately the projection I've gone for in this generation is that there is going to be an install base of 150 million by end of 2019 across PS4/XB1 and Wii U. Compared to last gen which had a 280m install base LTD and gen 5 which had 210m install base LTD.

Absolutely, I wouldn't expect any projection to be accurate past 12-18 months with the kind of uncertainties you get in the videogame market. I was only curious as I'd expect there to be two decent sized surges with larger changes to price point (down to $299, and $199) possibly enhanced by Morpheus (if received well).

I am perhaps too hopeful that the "market contraction" doomsaying is more "market correction" after the insane and unexpected success of the Wii. I'm of the impression that there are as many if not more "game playing households", but fewer who feel the need to have multiple consoles or devices. I'm doubtful that the market can support three competitors in the console market for much longer, but believe that a single large success vindicates the market segment.

 

[zeopower6]

Ultimately the projection I've gone for in this generation is that there is going to be an install base of 150 million by end of 2019 across PS4/XB1 and Wii U. Compared to last gen which had a 280m install base LTD and gen 5 which had 210m install base LTD.

Sounds about right since the Wii U is nowhere near the Wii numbers. Last gen's numbers probably won't ever happen again. D:

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

Came for sales discourse, stayed for butthurt, got some chart shenanigans and fun like the below free:

This is not the only price drop scenario. This is how it will play out.

<Andrew House enters the office of Kaz Hirai>
House: "Kaz... can I speak to you for a moment?"
<Kaz Hirai swivels around in his huge chair while smoking a cigar like Hannibal from the A-Team>
<Kaz nods and gestures to the cigar case which is adorned with the letters "Ba1" in the font of The Order 1886>
House: "No thanks. They give me diarrhea."
(This is the moment he has been practiced all pre-season.)
"As you know I've gone over the excel sheets and recently I checked insider forums with lots of gray usernames I have a plan and it will involve significant monetary sacrifice but listen to me and you'll understand."
<House takes a deep breath.>
House: "I want to gifs of myself on NeoGAF."
<Kaz swivels back around.>
Kaz: "I understand. Whatever it takes."

And that's how the MSRP for the PS4 is dropped to 299.

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

Them's fighting words in a Sony thread. Watch your step...

I'm a PS4 owner and love it but anyone saying Sony have been perfect especially with it's exclusives are looking at it with rose tinted glasses. So my point still stands. Compare those Xbox games I listed to:

Resogun (Probably best PS4 launch title)
Killzone (good but flawed)
Infamous SS (again good but flawed)
Knack (Piss poor)
The Order (Great graphics but poor gameplay)
DriveClub (Broken mess at launch)

Xbox had better quality 1st part support at the beginning.

Yes Bloodborne and DriveClub getting fixed and an excellent season pass certainly made up for it and TLoU Remaster was brilliant but it was a PS3 game. Sony definitely didn't have a great start with their normally excellent exclusives.

But despit all that, my original point was exclusives didn't matter so much because luckily Sony made the right decisions in making PS4 more powerful, which gave it an advantage in 3rd party games, which Sony have really relied on, even treating some 3rd party games like their own exclusives. Not a negative though, very smart move by Sony really and it's payed off with incredible sales.

 

[fedexpeon]

Forza 5, Forza Horizon 2, Sunset Overdrive, Dead Rising 3, Halo Collection, Killer Instinct to name a few.

Most people agree that MS had stronger exclusives so far, as Sony's exclusives have been good but definitely not up to the standard they put out on PS3, and some have been a bit poor too.

To name a few?
You literally named most if not all of them.

We can all be subjective here, but most people would agree that BB is the best exclusive game within the last 2 years.

 

[Rymuth]

How about a Prequel?

I'll settle for an Interquel.

I must know what the Marquis was doing off-screen.

 

[Felessan]

Revised forecast as of July 2015

You are forecasting 15.2 mil shipment, given that we have 16.5 mil guideline from Sony. Why? 1.3 mil is a significant difference. And Sony forecast already being conservative....
When you do an analysis being too conservative is as bad as being too optimistic.

 

[ZhugeEX]

You are forecasting 15.2 mil shipment, given that we have 16.5 mil guideline from Sony. Why? 1.3 mil is a significant difference.
When you do an analysis being too conservative is as bad as being too optimistic.

Sony's forecast is for fiscal year 2015/16 which runs from April 2015 through March 2016.

My forecast is for the calendar year which runs from January 2015 through December 2015.

The reason I adjusted the original forecast down was because I thought 36.1 million would not be reachable this year. However, upon further analysis I now believe the final total will be somewhere in between my revised and original forecast. In other words between 35.1m and 36.1m.

 

[Y2Kev]

But, I want a sequel

ME TOO

How about a Prequel?

NEVER!!! Assassin's Creed is bad!

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

To name a few?
You literally named most if not all of them.

We can all be subjective here, but most people would agree that BB is the best exclusive game within the last 2 years.

Totally agree, Bloodborne is excellent. I was talking about MS being more consistent with the quality of their exclusives, where Sony's normally excellent exclusives have been hit and miss thats all.

Hopefully their 2016 exclusive line up will return to the high quality and consistency of their PS3 days. It's certainly looking extremely good so far.

 

[DieH@rd]

EA just released their financial report for last quarter [they are OK].

As for sales, this is interesting:

During its quarterly earnings conference, Electronic Arts CEO Andrew Wilson shared the company&#8217;s outlook on the current generation console, mentioning that they predict a combined installed base of 49 million between PS4 and Xbox One by the end of the calendar year.

Compared with the previous generation in the same period, installed base hardware is up 44% and attach rate for software is slightly ahead as well. It&#8217;s 6.1 games per console against 5.1 in the PS3 and Xbox 360 generation.

Chief Financial Officer Blake Jorgensen also mentioned that Sony&#8217;s announcement today raising the forecast for PS4 sales this year is &#8220;hugely positive,&#8221; and that every time Sony and Microsoft release information it&#8217;s a positive surprise. He also added that NPD data shows the success of the one terabyte Xbox One and that the continued strength of both Sony&#8217;s and Microsoft&#8217;s product mix is &#8220;really strong.&#8221;

He then explained that at E3 the quality of software (not just by EA) was really high, and that&#8217;s great to generate interests. He feels that new consoles are going to do well over the next couple of years.

/from twinshockers

 

[ZhugeEX]

Yo,

Why'd you PM me some random message? I don't understand what you were trying to say?

EA just released their financial report for last quarter [they are OK].

As for sales, this is interesting:



/from twinshockers

EA just talk about NA and Europe IIRC

 

[DieH@rd]

EA just talk about NA and Europe IIRC

Yeah, that makes sense. Sony will take at least 36M by Dec31, which does not leave much for Xbone if 49M was WW target.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Yeah, that makes sense. Sony will take at least 36M by Dec31, which does not leave much for Xbone if 49M was WW target.

IHS say 54 million combined for PS4/XB1 by Dec 31st.

 

[Toki767]

Yeah, that makes sense. Sony will take at least 36M by Dec31, which does not leave much for Xbone if 49M was WW target.

But the Xbox One is debatably already at 13 million. If you predict Sony does 36 million, that means the Xbox One would stop selling entirely.