phosphor112
Banned
The 45nm runs less than 20w, less heat and power than the ram would. The additional parts would run even less than that since it would be smaller than the 45nm. You make it sound like it's running the 90nm Cell.
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VGLeaks: Details multiple devkits evolution of Orbis
- Thread starter shinobi602
- Start date
The 45nm runs less than 20w, less heat and power than the ram would. The additional parts would run even less than that since it would be smaller than the 45nm. You make it sound like it's running the 90nm Cell.
R10Neymarfan
Member
They would never do that they're making so much money off of the HD remasters. I would expect them to continue making PS2 HD remasters well into next gen.
Also isn't Sony gonna get the 35nm Cell?
It would absolutely make sense for Sony to include BC so they can do PS1, PS2, and PSN sales throughout the lifetime of the PS4. For example, they can do something like, "for a limited time only, select three of your favorite PS1, PS2, and one out of a selection of these PSN titles for a special price of $14.99!"
Brand loyalty is also critical. Many PSN users won't be happy when they realize all of the content they purchased over the PSN store is incompatible with the PS4. Why would they want to purchase more content off of PSN if they feel like Sony will steal it back at the end of the gen? I emphasize steal because the bad press Sony would receive would be shitacular and hurt the PlayStation brand. If what that patent says it can do works and is available Sony will absolutely use it, and I guarantee it.
Brand loyalty is also critical. Many PSN users won't be happy when they realize all of the content they purchased over the PSN store is incompatible with the PS4. Why would they want to purchase more content off of PSN if they feel like Sony will steal it back at the end of the gen? I emphasize steal because the bad press Sony would receive would be shitacular and hurt the PlayStation brand. If what that patent says it can do works and is available Sony will absolutely use it, and I guarantee it.
Evolution_1ne
Banned
wouldn't a super cell be better than cell+whatever CPU they are going with though?
last slim breakdown had Cell at $50... And as to 200W, i mean it is not far off 150w which is probably their target right now.
It makes little sense to me, those are gigantic costs.
Is there any newer BoM for PS3 slim (than isuppli 2009?)
Wasn't the PS2 BC component dirt cheap when it was cut from PS3? I understand the case for PS3 BC components being used to support PS4 games (DSP/zlib decompressor/whatever) but that math still has to be done in the context of cost over what the cheapest solution would be. There's a very narrow window there.
phosphor112
Banned
2009 prices.
Does that look like 50 bucks?
It's 45nm but the super slims run at 190W.
They run full games at 70w.
You're over blowing this.
googleplex
Member
Does that look like 50 bucks?
It's 45nm but the super slims run at 190W.
They run full games at 70w.
You're over blowing this.
How old is that list? BTW I would have figured that the Blue Ray drive would be cheaper.
phosphor112
Banned
2009. He's saying "50 dollars" on a 45nm process on 2009 prices.
How much do you speculate the cost of the chip in that patent to be for a launch PS4?
googleplex
Member
Just pulling a number out of my ass, I would say it'd cost about 25-30 dollars on a 22 nanometer process. And that high balling it.
LabouredSubterfuge
Member
2009 prices.
Does that look like 50 bucks?
It's 45nm but the super slims run at 190W.
They run full games at 70w.
You're over blowing this.
R&D = $0
So efficient.
googleplex
Member
Why would you add R&D to a BOM break down?
phosphor112
Banned
No idea, less than a full cell though. Even if it's technically half a cell and they'd need two, the yields would increase because they are made smaller.
phosphor112
Banned
They already have a PLANNED compute chip.
I personally think the odds of this "gpu-like compute chip" this thing they patented very high. They can use it in the PS4 and they can use it in the PS3, reducing their costs overall.
Because R&D is an OH cost and OH costs are allocated based on activity-based-costing.
Giant Panda
Member
If Sony had managed to shrink Cell to 28 or 32 nm then this shit would be a lock. Unfortunately they didn't and so Cell is probably still a little large at 45nm. Hype deflating 
R10Neymarfan
Member
If Sony had managed to shrink Cell to 28 or 32 nm then this shit would be a lock. Unfortunately they didn't and so Cell is probably still a little large at 45nm. Hype deflating
I remember reading somewhere that a 32nm Cell processor would be made this year. anyone confirm?
I'm seeing reports of a 22nm being available some time in the future.
EDIT: I found a map plan
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=61851
I thought 64-bit ISA and addressing were linked more closely in the AMD64 instruction set than with other architectures, but now that you mention it, I do seem to recall something a 32-bit pointer mode. Not that it matters, there's so many legacy horrors (mainly to do with addressing) in the 32-bit x86 realm that a 64-bit OS is pretty much a given.
I read a while back that Sony was going to skip 32nm because it required too much engineering for too little cost reduction. Something to do with the bizarre XDR connections not scaling down very well, iirc.
Sony at some point needs to do the engineering for a 20-something nm Cell and RSX just for the required cost reduction on the PS3. They'd stopped making the PS2; now they don't have a console for sale for under $250, and they're getting ready to launch a more expensive system? Sony knows how big the market is for systems in the $99 - $179 range, they have to have something very cheap very soon.
phosphor112
Banned
Bingo, those PE's they patented could be what they use. Connect two together. I don't think they'll bother doing a SOC like MS did. That'd be super costly. The thing with those PE's, they can use it in ANYTHING that needs a celll.
R10Neymarfan
Member
Maybe they're going for the Dual RSX+Cell in one like I posted above. If so and if it's 22nm then I think we will have hardware BC next gen, but it depends on the costs of course, bu tit seems like Sony is perusing because they have tried finding 35nm and below since the PS3 first launched.
2009 prices.
Does that look like 50 bucks?
It's 45nm but the super slims run at 190W.
They run full games at 70w.
You're over blowing this.
i posted that shot few pages ago
.does it need RSX as well? it needs some cooling... it needs some connections to rest of the board. it is not that simple.
and nobody is working on Cell anymore, IBM stopped in 2010 or so. There is no 32nm Cell coming.
Even if it ends up being $30, its $30 x 70 million, 2.1 billion. But all together it wont be $30, it will be more.
i posted that shot few pages ago
does it need RSX as well? it needs some cooling... it needs some connections to rest of the board. it is not that simple.
and nobody is working on Cell anymore, IBM stopped in 2010 or so. There is no 32nm Cell coming.
Even if it ends up being $30, its $30 x 70 million, 2.1 billion. But all together it wont be $30, it will be more.
Notice how it says "Cost Drivers" in the top left hand corner? That means costs for R&D, motherboard connections, and general assembly procedures have already been allocated. Cost drivers indicates activity-based-costing which is the unit of activity that drives an activity cost. R&D, motherboard connections, and general assembly procedures are cost drivers to a particular activity cost, i.e. Cell, RSX, or the Blu-Ray driver.
phosphor112
Banned
i posted that shot few pages ago
does it need RSX as well? it needs some cooling... it needs some connections to rest of the board. it is not that simple.
and nobody is working on Cell anymore, IBM stopped in 2010 or so. There is no 32nm Cell coming.
Even if it ends up being $30, its $30 x 70 million, 2.1 billion. But all together it wont be $30, it will be more.
The HD 7970 is more than capable of brute forcing the RSX emulation.
Also, there is a whole Bravia line of TV's that uses Cells in them. That's why their scaling engine is extremely good.
They are going to continue to make those.
you do realize they are listing prices for various things there including assembly, right?
Main part of the question is if it requires RSX. Then you need to improve PSU and Cooling, all of them listed separately. If it needs RSX, it wont be done.
Going back to what you are saying as to ABC, are you sure they are not pointing major parts of console and not ABC? I also doubt R&D has been calculated into BoM.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
I like phosphor's idea, and it would be a huge shame if it does not come to pass and we don't get backwards compatability.
I suppose I don't see the point in having a special "compute unit" for physics/gpgpu functions when CELL is pretty much already that chip. Why not just put in CELL and also have backwards compatability? That is, if ALL it takes is CELL and GDDR5 sufficies for memory, and the 7970M emulates RSX...there's no point NOT TO.
The current PS3 digital marketplace is too much content for them to simply have to start over with, especially when PS4 users may be playstation owners for the first time.
I'm still doubtful they'll do it, but I feel they'd be crazy not to if they opt for some other GPGPU chip instead.
I suppose I don't see the point in having a special "compute unit" for physics/gpgpu functions when CELL is pretty much already that chip. Why not just put in CELL and also have backwards compatability? That is, if ALL it takes is CELL and GDDR5 sufficies for memory, and the 7970M emulates RSX...there's no point NOT TO.
The current PS3 digital marketplace is too much content for them to simply have to start over with, especially when PS4 users may be playstation owners for the first time.
I'm still doubtful they'll do it, but I feel they'd be crazy not to if they opt for some other GPGPU chip instead.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
Wasn't there a patent recently with a stripped down CELL, too? Like 1 PPU + 4 SPEs?
Perhaps 3 of the SPEs could even be emulated by the 8 jaguar cores...
Perhaps 3 of the SPEs could even be emulated by the 8 jaguar cores...
I think you are assuming way too much - on how easy it is to emulate things, especially since they coded to the metal, and not high level api like directx. And there were some Toshiba units that used Cell too... but I dont think there are any left.
Sony will rather issue Ultra HD versions of PS3 titles and sell them to you for profit, than increase the cost of their console for everyone, which i think is the correct solution. But thats just my opinion, nothing else.
Probably doesn't need the RSX, the architectures of modern GPUs are reasonably close. It won't be great, but it'll be a lot better than something like trying to run the GS from the PS2 on the RSX.i posted that shot few pages ago
does it need RSX as well? it needs some cooling... it needs some connections to rest of the board. it is not that simple.
IBM clarified that they were open to working on the Cell again later. Also, rumor has it Sony and AMD have engineers that could probably work on it too.
Depends on how Sony integrates it and how they view it in the budget. If it's purely for BC, then it'll be launch systems only and that's if we're lucky. If they planned to have a standard CPU, beefy GPU, and physics/stuff coprocessor from the beginning, then it makes more sense. The Cell could be better for non-graphics workloads than a tiny GPU anyway.
I should point out that I'm not exactly convinced that we're getting PS3 BC. Sony's not been too reliable in providing BC lately even when there's evidence they could. I'm just saying that the methods we're looking at do make sense, more so than stuffing nearly an entire PS2 in launch PS3 systems.
phosphor112
Banned
That's the patent I've been referring to.
http://www.google.com/patents/US20100312969
All the information of the shared memory pool, not needing a custom bus and the like is from the patent.
I literally read the WHOLE patent today.
Each number under "Total Cost" would include all OH, labor, and material costs for that particular component but allocated on a per unit basis. If it requires RSX or an RSX equivalent, the improvements to PSU and cooling would still be there, but the increase in cost isn't as simple as looking at the costs of a bunch of major parts without looking into the operations that add to those costs as well. Because TC is listed in this bill of materials, it means OH is included.
ABC is for complex technologies using parts from many different companies. Consoles use ABC because a lot of R&D dollars are spent to get parts from Samsung, Nvidia, IBM, etc. all working on a single piece of silicone. Since Sony is in charge of making these parts work together, they will allocate R&D OH across all components evenly. However, costs specific to the individual component will be allocated to that particular activity.
Therefore, the questions are, how much R&D is required to figure out what types of Cooling and PSU methods are needed to accommodate the added complexities? What companies are making these types of Cooling and PSU components? At what price can we order these components at economies of scale?
The R&D will be spread across the entire range of components in the PS4 so your adding maybe .20 cents onto each component. The better Cooling and PSU components may cost an additional $20-40 in comparison to alternatives.
I'm hoping this analysis can help you guys understand how these decisions are made as these are internal cost control processes that aids decision-making. Somebody then needs to figure out the opportunity costs of not including BC for even deeper analysis. Unfortunately, these numbers are speculative and therefore, most likely inaccurate. But, I'm hoping this can spark further debate on what can possibly be added and what can't from a cost-benefit POV.
EDIT: This post is in Layman's terms! For anyone who knows accounting and wants to contribute to this discussion, please understand that I'm trying to give a simple explanation for everyone to grasp the concepts of how ABC affects decision-making. Further details on this process are certainly welcome for elevating the discussion. My knowledge of ABC is slightly above intermediate so anyone with more knowledge on the subject is encouraged to contribute!
phosphor112
Banned
Lol, wait wait wait.
So, you're trying to convince me, they won't emulate PS3 games on completely capable hardware, but they'll COMPLETELY REWRITE the code for a CELL based game and make it "Ultra HD"?
Lol.
Reading this now, thanks for the info.
$40 is "shit expensive" now? Good to know.
Brad Grenz
Member
Obviously, that's why you integrate it on to the APU itself and not as an extra chip on the mobo. APUs are designed to be modular, the Jaguar modules used in Orbis should have two unused crossbar connections for attaching additional components. The patented Processing Elements are designed to connect to a crossbar. I don't know they'll use those exact designs, if only because it would seem like 2 PPUs would be a waste of transistor budget, but a similar module that was SPEs only, or had a 1x6 configuration would be pretty small and generate very little heat. And in fact, the way SPEs use local storage means they are far less sensitive to changes in the overall memory topology in terms of external timings and latency.
One could argue that while the initial investment for UHD games would be higher, the sales and potential profit would be more than worth it to the publishers. Except I don't think we're going to get a PS2 HD revolution again. PS3 games already support wireless controllers, have trophies, support friendlists, support 16:9 widescreen, and are in general much more modern even today from a features standpoint than any PS2 game was when the PS3 launched. Of course I say that before we've heard what the next generation brings, but there hasn't been much rumored in the way of new ways to play old games, it's just new input methods for new games.
However, nearly all PS3 games can be patched, so devs wanting to sell a PS4 patch could easily do so. I don't think some Sony first-party games would be easily patched, but multi-platform games could be ported to the PS4 relatively easily (compared to PS2 -> PS3) by simply starting with a PC or 360 version and porting that instead of the version with the Cell SPU code. I still don't think it'd be worth it even in those cases, the PS2 HD collections were a perfect storm of nostalgia and major upgrades.
pharmboy044
Member
If they are going with the cell, wouldn't we have heard or read about it by now? Wouldn't the dev kits have them or is that something that's added to the final version?
Zoramon089
Banned
Question. How do they estimate the price of a customized chip? I mean, you can kind of guess based on what it's based on but that's not really accurate is it?
JohnnySasaki86
Member
Maybe its that 1PPU4SPU chip that Jeff_Rigby was always talking about! Does that thing actually stand a chance at being the compute chip? He said they patented back in 2009/2010 I think.
edit: oops I guess this was already brought up.
R10Neymarfan
Member
So they can add the 35 or 22nm cell to the APU?
Death Dealer
Member
I think it's almost totally based on the wafer cost, die area determining how many fit on each wafer, and yield.
It's really tough to estimate, especially since we don't have a lot of concrete details. If we knew for sure what the actual base GPU was and the specific customizations we could start to venture a guess but we don't have those details, at least not for sure.
Brad Grenz
Member
It wouldn't be Cell, per se, and it would be 28nm like the rest of the chip.
There's a rumor floating around that there's a mystery processor in the Orbis other than the CPU or GPU that's useful for physics, video, and compression.
phosphor112
Banned
"gpu like compute module" is the "secret sauce" (god I hate that phrase) that is rumored in the Orbis. Describes Cell perfectly.
pharmboy044
Member
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