CaviarMeths
Member
T5 will make 2-3x more in China than in the US.
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Wkd BO 0609-1117 - Wonder Woman deflects competition, Cruise cries for his Mummy
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
T5 will make 2-3x more in China than in the US.
Well...good luck to Valerian I guess.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
I'm expecting a surprisingly higher gross (than tracking) for that one. The sheer amount of gaffers who know about it and are saying 'it will bomb' is a bit too high for it to straight up crater.
It's Dunkirk where I'm asking myself what the selling pitch is. I mean, I know studios now think we can get back to WWII stuff (movies, games), but that genre was so overcrowded it had to die for a while, so I'm not convinced it will work on its own. Apes is solid, and should be fine, but they are surprisingly small movies in terms of BO gross, so that's not really direct competition to big sci-fi schlock like Valerian and Homecoming.
I don't think it will be "Mummyfied" right off the bat. For one, it's strategically placed near August, which I believe people here said is typically rather barren, so that should help.
What is more curious is that it doesn't have a China release, which seems like self-sabotage with where we are now, but then their censorship is still there, so we really shouldn't pretend like China is 'just another market'. There is a heavy price to pay for putting a movie out there, and it's one where you can ask yourself whether it's worth paying.
boxoffice.com updated their long range forecast yesterday.
Two months from now is basically the end of summer, so there isn't much interesting to talk about among the new predictions. If The Nut Job 2 is your most anticipated film of the year, BO Pro has it at $12M opening weekend.
Among the other films, they have Transformers 5 opening to $50M over the 3 day weekend (it opens next Wednesday), and have decreased the domestic total to $180M.
They bumped Despicable Me 3 up a bit to $86M OW and $280M total.
Baby driver's opening weekend is still $15M (it opens on a Wednesday as well, so Wed-Thurs are not part of that), but they bumped its projected total up to $82M. An increase of 82%. They really think that it will break out over the July 4th week.
On the other hand, their Spider-Man: Homecoming prediction has been downgraded to $125M opening weekend and $301M total.
We know nothing about that film, but probably not. At least domestically. Wonder Woman won't be all that far removed from Doctor Strange worldwide, so I guess it is possible that Captain Marvel matches Wonder Woman worldwide. Especially if foreign currencies recover in the next 2.5 years. Doctor Strange would have been close to $800M using 2014 exchange rates for instance.
Two months from now is basically the end of summer, so there isn't much interesting to talk about among the new predictions. If The Nut Job 2 is your most anticipated film of the year, BO Pro has it at $12M opening weekend.
Among the other films, they have Transformers 5 opening to $50M over the 3 day weekend (it opens next Wednesday), and have decreased the domestic total to $180M.
They bumped Despicable Me 3 up a bit to $86M OW and $280M total.
Baby driver's opening weekend is still $15M (it opens on a Wednesday as well, so Wed-Thurs are not part of that), but they bumped its projected total up to $82M. An increase of 82%. They really think that it will break out over the July 4th week.
On the other hand, their Spider-Man: Homecoming prediction has been downgraded to $125M opening weekend and $301M total.
We know nothing about that film, but probably not. At least domestically. Wonder Woman won't be all that far removed from Doctor Strange worldwide, so I guess it is possible that Captain Marvel matches Wonder Woman worldwide. Especially if foreign currencies recover in the next 2.5 years. Doctor Strange would have been close to $800M using 2014 exchange rates for instance.
CaviarMeths
Member
Highly doubt it. It won't have the timing or cultural significance. I also doubt it'll be as good.
igordennis
Member
Still insane when you think how Deadpool had a 30m higher opening and as far as i recall some pretty damn good legs (WoM was great) and WW will still finish higher (if kswis is correct, which he usually is). I'm so happy WW is doing so well.
Obliterator
Member
I doubt it. For one I like Marvel a hell of a lot but I find it highly unlikely that Captain Marvel will be the quality of a film Wonder Woman is.
Global is a possibility, but Domestic is where I really think CM doesn't have much a chance of matching WW box office.
hodayathink
Member
My niece actually fell asleep when we took her to see it (that's what we get for trying to take her to a 9:45 showing), so there's a good chance I'll end up seeing it again in theaters.
Lights and Waves
Member
So is Dunkirk going to flop to? The trailers are loud. That's all I have to say about them.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
More than any other director Nolan has a pretty large and devoted following. I think there's a fair amount of people interested in seeing Harry Styles's acting debut too, and I honestly expect it to be good and carry good WoM. It'll definitely make less than any of Nolan's last 4 films, but I certainly don't expect a flop outright either.
My daughter and I got out from it an hour ago. It's still early, but it's a contender for comedy of the year. We laughed our asses off, along with the rest of the theater. I also called the exact moment the "twist" began.
broncobuster
Banned
This is a first, at least that I've seen.
Well, Marvel has had years to prepare the movie. If it sucks or doesn't do well, they have no one else to blame.
Z
ZombieFred
Unconfirmed Member
I think it can. WW's numbers aren't astronomically high and Disney knows how to market a film. Seeing as how Marvel hasn't released a bad movie in a long time, I feel they have enough trust built into their audience that they will show up for something new like Doctor Strange and Guardians.
Marvel just has to find a way to make the character appealing. I have no idea how they're going to pull this off, but they've been in this situation so many times before, I imagine they have a good idea for her. They wouldn't be making the movie otherwise.
If it hits Ant Man numbers, they'll be giddy.
CM doesn't have Wonder Woman's name value. Expecting that film to top 700 million guaranteed is overzealous. It might, but there's no guarantee.
PHOENIXZERO
Member
Thankfully Perlmutter's opinion is no longer relevant to the film side.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Honestly Captain Marvel seems to have a very boring power set and what I've heard of the character isn't all too great either. The writing and direction will likely have to all the heavy lifting to make the movie appealing enough for large numbers of people to show up. Comparitively Wonder Woman had a far famous history an ability set that sets her apart from other superheroes (which is also well known) and likely would have done alright in a mediocre to poor movie.
The power set is similar to that of many other superheroes. As for her character, I strongly disagree.
As with most Marvel movies.
Is her ability set all that special? Last I checked you didn't need an incredibly famous history to do well at the box office either.
That's really fantastic.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
That's the point, audiences aren't in a rush to see another superhero that's super strong, fast and can fly. The marvel characters that do that have a gimmick have another defining gimmick, pretty much none of the characters introduced in phrase 3 have that power set.
It's extremely boring, even superman the quintesential origin hasn't been all that popular in decades. The most interesting thing about those powers are the origins.
Walk to a random person in the street and ask them if they've heard of the lasso of truth, combine that with the greek spartan aesthetic already proven to be popular and you have her inherent appeal to audiences. There is a reason why she's the most famous and probably distinct solo female superhero.
No one looks at Black Panther and goes "Super strength and invulnerable due to a suit? Lame". Powers are not what sets Wonder Woman apart from many other superheroes either. Last I checked Superman movies also did well at the box office, despite not being "popular in decades". I don't think powers are really the important part here.
Let us be honest for once, that also says a lot about the comic book industry and its history though.
Never forget we talk about an industry where something like Avengers #200 was possible.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Provided it gets a decent critical reception, Captain Marvel will probably end up in the 500 / 600 million range, as usual. The character doesn't matter, the Marvel logo is enough. It probably won't match Wonder Woman in the US but it will catch up overseas to an extent.
I imagine Marvel is inevitably going to release a movie that disappoints at the box-office at some point, but I really wonder which one it will be.
I imagine Marvel is inevitably going to release a movie that disappoints at the box-office at some point, but I really wonder which one it will be.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Black Panther has gadgets and resources and shit. If he was some random dude with that suit he wouldn't be as interesting. It's not how inherently versatile a ability set is though that does help but how it separates itself from the competition. Wolverine has his claws and healing, not amazingly interesting abilities but they comparitively do stand out and you can recognise those as his. Carols abilities are far too similar to way to many superheroes, well known at that.
Your completely right, there really isn't much competition to wonder woman and a lot of the more standalon characters aren't that important in the first place or started off as fetish bait rather than compelling characters. There really isn't much there.
crazy monkey
Banned
I am more excited about valerian out of all those movies.
Do people really care about the trailers or plot of Nolan films at this point?
I haven't watched a single Dunkirk trailer or care much about WWII and I'll be there day one.
Great hold for #WonderWoman w/ $40.8M, off only 30% in 3rd wknd. Cume $274.6M, shd smash $300M on SAT. Upping my forecast to $370M+ final.
https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/876441773760970752
$40.8M 3rd wknd for #WonderWoman ranks #4 all-time for all comic book movies behind only #Avengers, #SpiderMan & #DarkKnight.
https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/876442942436782082
https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/876441773760970752
$40.8M 3rd wknd for #WonderWoman ranks #4 all-time for all comic book movies behind only #Avengers, #SpiderMan & #DarkKnight.
https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/876442942436782082
Obliterator
Member
What are those?
Z
ZombieFred
Unconfirmed Member
HOLY FUCK!!!! WW go!!!!!!!!!!!
There were like 10 people in my late night screening on the first weekend. Usually, when I go watch a Marvel or a Batman movie at this time, the cinema is still packed.
Guess I was not wrong with the public awareness of WW here.
Anecdotal of course in this case, but El Topos post makes me thing that this is the usual thing that happened.
Guess I was not wrong with the public awareness of WW here.
Anecdotal of course in this case, but El Topos post makes me thing that this is the usual thing that happened.
b&jy77VjiKn$#F
Member
patty slays
Holy crap! DC REALLLLLYYYYY needed this one and bodes well for the SH genre going forward. Hell, I wouldn't doubt if they add some more scenes in JL.
Can't wait to see the WW once they get released.
Estimates (for the numbers of viewers), I only briefly checked the archives, seem comparable to the first Captain America movie. About half compared the other DCEU movies. Not sure how reliable of course.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
WW first week is estimated 250k in Germany, For comparison, other DCEU movies double that number.
Avengers OW: $207,438,708|3rd weekend: $55,644,102
Spider-Man OW: $114,844,116|3rd weekend: $45,036,912
The Dark Knight OW: $158,411,483|3rd weekend: $42,664,219
Wonder Woman OW: $103,251,471|3rd weekend: $40,800,000
AOU OW: $191,271,109|3rd weekend: $38,859,900
Iron Man 3 OW: $174,144,585|3rd weekend: $35,770,094
TDKR OW: $160,887,295| 3rd weekend: $35,737,330
Civil War: $179,139,142|3rd weekend: $32,939,739
Deadpool OW: $132,434,639| 3rd weekend: $31,115,195
Spider-Man 3 OW: $151,116,516| 3rd weekend: $29,022,026
WW and Spider-Man the real champs. If those WW numbers are accurate and my numbers are not wrong.
Spider-Man OW: $114,844,116|3rd weekend: $45,036,912
The Dark Knight OW: $158,411,483|3rd weekend: $42,664,219
Wonder Woman OW: $103,251,471|3rd weekend: $40,800,000
AOU OW: $191,271,109|3rd weekend: $38,859,900
Iron Man 3 OW: $174,144,585|3rd weekend: $35,770,094
TDKR OW: $160,887,295| 3rd weekend: $35,737,330
Civil War: $179,139,142|3rd weekend: $32,939,739
Deadpool OW: $132,434,639| 3rd weekend: $31,115,195
Spider-Man 3 OW: $151,116,516| 3rd weekend: $29,022,026
WW and Spider-Man the real champs. If those WW numbers are accurate and my numbers are not wrong.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Same in France for the first week. Half of BvS and Suicide Squad, slightly above First Avenger. And way below Pirates so far. It was predictable but as I've said numerous times, now that the character has been established, the sequel could very well blow up internationally like Winter Soldier did.
Lord Frieza
Member
That feels about what I would expect to be honest. DC hasn't built the worldwide brand Marvel has, BvS was front-loaded as hell due to the event nature, and Man of Steel was the first Superman movie since Returns and was marketed a lot more than WW. That feels about right all things considered.
Suicide Squad, to me, is really the outliner. It's crazy how much that movie did.
Gal gonna be front and center in the marketing for JL, no doubt.