No it is not. I am all for extrapolating but only where it makes sense. # of units sitting on retailer shelves is not at all a percentage function of numbers shipped. It just isn't, not at all, not even close.
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Xbox One: 5 million units shipped to retailers
- Thread starter Chezzymann
- Start date
No it is not. I am all for extrapolating but only where it makes sense. # of units sitting on retailer shelves is not at all a percentage function of numbers shipped. It just isn't, not at all, not even close.
Sure, but then the Verge right underneath states that the XBO is only 2 million units behind PS4, signifying that they think the XBO and PS4 numbers that have been released are all "sold to consumers".
SwiftDeath
Member
Hmm but the 3M number is sold to consumers so I don't get your point
Starting to think I'm being dense and it's going over my head
Liabe Brave
Member
It seems very likely that reorders are already not meeting production supply. We've previously heard that electronics production lines must typically be leased for long periods, with a fixed monthly unit quota. Since Microsoft was able to sell-in almost 4m units during 2013, their production quota must've been somewhere just above 1m per month. If they truly can't vary that number, and can't get out of it for a long time, then they've actually produced about 3.5m Xbox Ones in 2014.
So in addition to filling the distribution channels and retailers with about 1m units that customers aren't buying, they'll also be filling warehouses with about 2m more units that retailers aren't buying. If so, just like Nintendo with the Wii U they're having to pay stocking fees on this backlog. Unlike Wii U, the slowdown is new, so the backlog is still growing (until they can adjust production capacity downward, or encourage sales demand to rise and meet it).
My point is that at some time MS might have shipped 1.9M and only sold through 1.2M. Now if we take those percentages they would still be at some 3M sold through right now. It makes no sense, overshipped numbers are in no reproducable way correlated to shipped numbers so using a random percentage in time for extrapolating is just wrong.
There might be a function describing the correlation, but obviously it is not linear. So assuming it is linear actually makes the result WORSE than a good guess.
Pricefall did occur in March alongside TitanFall.
andromeduck
Member
I wonder how long it'll take Sony to boost production capacity.
I expected it to have hit by now.
I expected it to have hit by now.
Mafia Films
Neo Member
I read this article and its no different than the DRM-Phase of terminology and catch phrases they use.
All I can say is look at the facts
Initial: Launch Edition $500
Shortly there after - Xbox one with Game $500
Recently - Xbox one with T-Fall digital $450
More recently - Xbox one system only $450 "temporarily" price drop.
Pretty much don't need to read propaganda pieces to understand their situation. Hasn't even been what barely 6 months and theres a $50 price drop already?
All I can say is look at the facts
Initial: Launch Edition $500
Shortly there after - Xbox one with Game $500
Recently - Xbox one with T-Fall digital $450
More recently - Xbox one system only $450 "temporarily" price drop.
Pretty much don't need to read propaganda pieces to understand their situation. Hasn't even been what barely 6 months and theres a $50 price drop already?
SwiftDeath
Member
I think I'm starting to understand what you mean. I'm going to bed though. Maybe a more awake mind will make me see it correctly
SRTtoZ
Member
Lets not forget the day the MS store had the TF bundle for $399 by mistake.
Mendax
Member
because they want to "win" in their home territory/largest markets before going abroad and feel they need the stock for that i guess.
Liabe Brave
Member
His point is that no matter how many units you try to ship, there's a physical limit to what warehouses and retail stores will hold, not sold to customers. Let's say that limit is 1m units.
When you've sold 4m, you can ship a maximum of 5m.
When you've sold 10m, you can ship a maximum of 11m.
When you've sold 50m, you can ship a maximum of 51m.
The ratio between the two must increase over time, because the amount you can sell can expand greatly, but the amount shipped above that can't. Therefore, the percentage difference will change. So using a set percentage to calculate one number from the other isn't logical.
Yeah I think Sony is launched in 3x+ more countries than Xbox at this point. I think the issue with the launch delays is getting the voice stuff to work correctly and maybe the TV stuff. Still you'd think they'd want to get the consoles out there and add the features later, not like the xbone is unusable without either.
kinoki
Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
In Sweden most electronic retailers are over-stocked with Xbox Ones and we've yet to see a release. It's pretty unnecessary to have an official release at this point. I think most european countries have the same situation. It hasn't launched but it's readily available.
Pancakes R Us
Member
Miscrosoft better have a proper price cut soon, perhaps some bundling as well as matching the PS4's price.
Also, as nice as things are for Sony right now, they'd better not rest on their laurels. Release a few blockbusters to make more people want the console...the gap isn't big enough that it couldn't be closed by a few blockbusters and some price-cutting.
Looking forward to see this battle play out over the next few years. I don't want a PS2-like situation again. The more competition, the better for us.
Also, as nice as things are for Sony right now, they'd better not rest on their laurels. Release a few blockbusters to make more people want the console...the gap isn't big enough that it couldn't be closed by a few blockbusters and some price-cutting.
Looking forward to see this battle play out over the next few years. I don't want a PS2-like situation again. The more competition, the better for us.
Unknown One
Member
I don't know about that. It took years for the PS3 to close a similar gap. Unless MS can blow out the PS4 in EU, there is no way the gap would close.
Of course, we have had CNET and The Verge out out articles muddying the waters sourcing that PR release.
Most will see through it and it hurts MS perception further with core base.
They have a huge image perception problem with the X1, I would hate to put a figure on what MS spent the last two months and altogether in regards to TF, advertising and price cuts but they just sank at the very least 10's of millions of dollars and still lost.
Big setback and one that damages the perception of the console, success it seems evades it and people don't like to back a losing product ........ success is what people want to be attached with.
PS4 is a success.
Dre_G_Writer
Member
pretty much what they're saying.
Huggers
Member
This makes me feel better
That major Nelson Reddit is interesting. Expecting something big from them at E3. I wonder how a kinectless sku will be handled
geordiemp
Member
no it is not a decent number. Ps4 is shipping over 1 million per month...
Lecker_Duplo
Neo Member
7 million ps4 sold and its still sold out almost everywhere. Would be a ratio like 5:1 in the past 3 month if ps4 was available, i guess.
SolidusDave
Member
That's clear, but in our case we only talk about a small increase.
Also, we know for a fact that directly after Christmas there were still 0.9 million units on the shelves. So 1.1-1.2 million unsold units in a month like April after flooding shops with additional Titanfall bundles doesn't seem far fetched to me, hence me bringing up the percentage calculation.
But anyway, we are only arguing here if they managed to go over the 4 million mark, if they managed 4.5 or whatever, they would have announced that imo (actually, even for 4 million).
You can't really say that anymore for North America, especially canada. It's not hard to find anymore.
What makes you think that? They might as well have produced 6-7 million already.
Ivory Samoan
Gold Member
Both consoles are doing just fine.. 5 million and getting doomsday predictions left right and centre... what's the world coming to?
Why would they tell us when then are close to 4M sold through? And why would they spoil that nice 5M numbers by telling us sell through is 4.1 or 4.2?
Acrylic7
Member
As soon as I see one in stock its gone the next day. Its pretty cool to finally see them though, lol.
They shipped ww what they sold in the us.
Think about what that means for sales outside the us.
1) That's 5 million shipped. No one knows how many are actually sold to consumers.
2) Microsoft basically cut the price of the Xbone and gave discounts to their console. If you wanted Titanfall, it was actually quite a bit cheaper than the PS4. It still got outsold despite this and actually sold less than the month previously.
That's why people are seeing the Xbone results pessimistically.
Droopaloop
Banned
In my opinion I feel the xbone has better games... Consoles are the new fashion statements. Who care's if their comfortable, as long as it looks good.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
Nah, mate. Some people just think PS or Nintendo have the better games, nothing to do with fashion.
panda-zebra
Member
Once you start with the shipped figures and sales aren't exactly stellar, it's difficult to then begin using sold through to customers numbers.
January was the tough one, it wasn't hard to imagine a lot of failed eBay profiteering resulting in significant returns to retail on top of the usual and obvious slump at that time of year. Once the tiny January numbers were glossed over with the stuffed sold-through figures, it meant slow future sales were going to be hard to disguise and the real sales figures no chance of appearing.
It's going to be 2015 before they're realistically going to get the opportunity to begin issuing sales to consumers numbers.
January was the tough one, it wasn't hard to imagine a lot of failed eBay profiteering resulting in significant returns to retail on top of the usual and obvious slump at that time of year. Once the tiny January numbers were glossed over with the stuffed sold-through figures, it meant slow future sales were going to be hard to disguise and the real sales figures no chance of appearing.
It's going to be 2015 before they're realistically going to get the opportunity to begin issuing sales to consumers numbers.
If I'm at Microsoft, I'm not interested in selling the most consoles anymore. I'm now interested in being profitable. It will cost a tremendous amount of money to make a comeback like Sony did with the Ps3 and imo, it's just not worth it. Their most important goal was to be profitable from day 1 and they need to stick to that. Drop Kinect, it's useless for games and price the box at $399. Throw in a free year of xbl gold with a purchase. They need to adopt sony's ps plus idea. I know they have free games they give away for you to keep but that's just a stupid idea. Ps plus is a brilliant idea because it keeps you on the hook. You have to subscribe to keep your games so people do it. It generates a lot of money and it enables you to give out better games because it's essentially a rental. The final thing Microsoft has to do is change their corporate culture. They need to be a customer centric company. I remember when Microsoft was giving xbox gold subscribers 25 cents for their birthday? Really? That's how you repay a loyal customer. They seriously have a lot to learn. They have no good will at all. I don't hate Microsoft and i would actually purchase an xbox if it offered great value. This gen, there is no point. Sony has better first party studios and most games are multiplatform. Microsoft should begin prepping for next gen. They need the have the best first party studios by the end of this gen and the most powerful console at the start of next gen. Then, they'll have everyone's attention.
AnthonypUK
Member
For what its worth he who shall not be named is claming Microsoft source telling him.
between "4.4m and 4.55m" as of last week.
So your gap is north of 2.5million
It's closer to 4.2 million that 4.4 - 4.5 is inflated and has no basis in the numbers.
Gap is closer to 3 million, especially since PS4 surpassed 7 million and is not 7 million exactly.
I know, I have always maintained that the ratio and sales gap will just widen.
AnthonypUK
Member
But they cant be profitable buy dropping the kinect right now, manufacturing amounts are set months and months in advance and already brought and paid for, they probably brought a years worth of manufacturing XOnes and Kinects, dropping the kinect now would be a huge money sink since they'd have millions of unsold kinects sitting in a warehouse.
They're going to have to just knuckle down TRY to get some apps and games that show the value it can bring, until the time when they can dial back the manufacturing of kinect, i think 2015 could be a kinectless XOne.
ZackieChan
Member
AnthonypUK
Member
Basis in numbers? Its what an "insider" is claiming are the sold numbers as of last week,
Yeah.... I think they are fine on that front.
Chobel
Member
What insider?
True but you can sell it as an add-on like the ps4 camera for $100 while you scale back manufacturing. There is also a market for kinect on PC so they should explore that as well. It just can't be in the box. There is no app on earth that you can release that will make it useful or fun. Why? There is nothing for you to hold. Pretending to hit a ball in 3d space while looking at the tv is just stupid. It's cool if you have a great imagination but most people don't. It's also not immersive and this is the biggest problem with kinect.