Agreed.
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October 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Agreed.
I can see PS4 winning the last half of Nov to take NPD because of GTAV and BF sales. PS4 is already back on the rise at Amazon. It could go either way really. Nothing it set.
Xbox has got to win Novembere right? I mean it's pulling out every thing now. If it didn't it would be disaster for them internally would it not?
Sorry I know this is the October thread. For what it's worth I have no idea what to estimate. It just feels like November is going to be so important.
Sorry I know this is the October thread. For what it's worth I have no idea what to estimate. It just feels like November is going to be so important.
SwiftDeath
Member
So 3 days later, it's now like this
#8 - AC Unity Kinectless XB1 Bundle [+/- 0]
#13 - COD 1TB SE XB1 Bundle [-2]
#20 - PS4 Standard [+5]
#22 - Sunset Overdrive XB1 Bundle [-16]
#30 - XB1 Standard Kinectless [+4]
#40 - AC Unity Kinect XB1 Bundle [+/- 0]
#52 - Destiny PS4 Bundle [+9]
And while putting too much stock into Amazon rankings as truly indicative of market behavior can be bad, I still thought it was interesting. Specifically why the XB1 standard kinectless seemingly improved its sales ranking when the ACU kinectless bundle is the same price and contains two free games [one of which hasn't even released yet]
Still think November is going to MS unless something major changes but we'll see
Does November tracking period include black friday?
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Yes.
Damn I wouldn't be surprised at all if xbone doubled up ps4 in November.
Said it in another thread -- MS has to be kicking themselves for not making more Sunset Overdrive bundles. Many people want it but can't find it anywhere,
Anyway, based on that list, MS making multiple SKUs was very smart. Would play a big role in them beating the PS4 in sales for this month (that is, if they do).
The GTAV bundle is definitely going to do well. I just think things will be pretty evenly split between people making the transition to this gen who find that bundle more appealing and people who find the bundles that have a new entry in a popular series more appealing (e.g.: XB1 Assassin's Creed Unity).
I say that since GTA V still sold very well after it released last year. Many people making the transition to this gen more than likely played GTAV just a few months ago. So I don't see that being as appealing for that group as bundles with new entries in popular series unless they are really big GTA fans.
Either way, Black Friday is going to very good for both.
SwiftDeath
Member
November is generally the second largest month of the year, I really doubt XB1 can double the PS4 during it even with how well positioned they are.
I find the SO bundle very odd to be honest. Making a bundle with digital codes? Easy, cheap. Hell even offering special packaging isn't that expensive. But offering an entirely different color hardware? You'd have to roll out the process at the factories to make the colored plastic shell just for that bundle. I don't understand why they would make it so limited to be honest. Maybe there's a standalone white XB1 coming soon or something.
I do agree that MS has done a fantastic job of setting themselves up to win November/December. There isn't much more for them to do assuming they get the word out on the price drop but I think they will
A disaster would be selling <100k again in a quiet month.
Even if they lose, if they sell a lot of units and not be decimated like they were in September then it will be fine.
So with all the commentary on the XB1 increases due to the drop in price, and the speculation associated with that, I figured I'd let you guys know what it has looked like this week.
There was a veritable... well, explosion is a bit hyperbolic, but as soon as the price drop hit, we had a pretty drastic increase in XB1 sales. First day and forward, with the CoD launch as well, sold a bunch of the various bundles. But even just the last two days, that rush has tapered off significantly, and while still better than last month's pace, it isn't outselling the PS4 anymore. They're pretty close now, with just that rush of systems putting it ahead for the month so far.
We're getting rumors/whispers from corporate about Sony's intentions for the PS4, bundling, etc. but I honestly avoid speculating on any of that, especially since I know that Best Buy corporate does indeed allow false rumors to spread in various stores to try and pinpoint leakers. I don't really see a clear way to call this month yet, even with the MCC. This is probably the first month where I really think things will be interesting. There's too much up in the air, and I don't think you guys realize exactly how insane Black Friday and the weekend following are. Last year one store sold more consoles on BF than 3 combined months of year leading up to that point.
There was a veritable... well, explosion is a bit hyperbolic, but as soon as the price drop hit, we had a pretty drastic increase in XB1 sales. First day and forward, with the CoD launch as well, sold a bunch of the various bundles. But even just the last two days, that rush has tapered off significantly, and while still better than last month's pace, it isn't outselling the PS4 anymore. They're pretty close now, with just that rush of systems putting it ahead for the month so far.
We're getting rumors/whispers from corporate about Sony's intentions for the PS4, bundling, etc. but I honestly avoid speculating on any of that, especially since I know that Best Buy corporate does indeed allow false rumors to spread in various stores to try and pinpoint leakers. I don't really see a clear way to call this month yet, even with the MCC. This is probably the first month where I really think things will be interesting. There's too much up in the air, and I don't think you guys realize exactly how insane Black Friday and the weekend following are. Last year one store sold more consoles on BF than 3 combined months of year leading up to that point.
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
Thanks for the update.
This is why im still skeptical of an Xbox win in November. BF is far too large a percentage of the month's sales to really make any kind of prediction based just on sales so far.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
As always, thank you for your contribution; I think most of us would be flying blind without you^^ This insight fits with what has been reflected on Amazon. Xbox was over PS4 at COD bundle launch, but now PS4 is tracking higher on the hourly for all released bundles. If this holds true then we will see another big spike Tuesday with Assassin's Creed bundle. Then another slow down going into the PS4 GTAV bundle on the 18th? Even then that would put PS4 still a little behind going into Black Friday... I have no idea how all this is going to turn out, but for the first time since March things will be very very exciting^^ A lot of happy new gen gamers this Christmas^^
Orthogonal
Member
Double!?!? Not a chance, even if there weren't supply constraints, that is not happening. Xbox One is selling very well with these initial bundles and will likely be the most competitive it has ever been, but don't be too hasty. The first couple of weeks in November will pale in comparison to post black Friday sales. November is a unique month and early sales are a small fraction of what will be sold. Amazon sales rank on Nov30 will look vastly different than now.
I think the x1 will win November, but the Mcc will have nothing to do with it. The cod bundle will be the reason imo.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
It was about 300K Destiny bundles and 238K Solos, so for this shorter month (4 weeks instead of 5) I see solos dropping to about 200K and Destiny bundles pulling in another 100K. It will be a stronger than regular month, but no November^^
Yeah, I definitely know how big Black Friday is. I used to go out to stores on Black Friday 6+ years ago to grab some deals here and there. Tons of people getting video games/consoles.
Like I said in my previous post, both systems are going to do very well on Black Friday BUT I simply feel like the combo of COD + Halo MCC will attract a great portion of the group still currently playing on the 360 to the XB1 in comparison to the PS4. That combo alone is pretty much what defined multiplayer gaming on the Xbox 360. As I also said in different post (in a different thread iirc), I think the PS4 would need a $350 bundle/SKU to pull this portion of 360 gamers away from getting an XB1 and make them get a PS4. I could be wrong though (I've been wrong before haha). I will agree that November will be the most "interesting" month this year so far in terms of sales.
Also, I could see the Unity bundle picking up in sales a bit next week alongside the game's release and then going back down until Black Friday.
Appreciated x1000, Abdiel. Can always count on you to give a detailed report with as much subjectivity as possible. You're 'consistent' in that regard
Yeah, October doesn't have all those built up pre-orders like September did (for the Destiny bundle).
_______________________
I wouldn't say nothing since there are people getting the XB1 this month due to MCC. I will say though that the bundles (with COD or AC Unity) on top of MCC will push more people into getting one than if MS only had MCC to rely on and nothing more.
Nightengale
Member
One would argue that the multiplayer audience looking for the CoD + Halo combination would've leaned towards an XB1 to begin with. PS4, even with Destiny, does not have that kind of FPS MP experience to sell as its own.
Abdiel, last time we chatted you said a lot of the stores in your district didn't reach their preorder caps for the SO bundle. How did the numbers evolve reaching closer to launch and the response post launch?
I'm not saying absolutely no one is buying it because mcc. The x1 price drops and bundled free games have more impact. Without the bundles and it was just Mcc releasing, I think ps4 would win Nov easily.
I think the price-drop will do good for the Xbox One short-term. It will create interest, push price-sensitive buyers to buy the Xbox One as well as help with network effects etc. I don't think however that the Xbox One will maintain momentum if the price drop does not become a permanent price drop after the holidays are over. Definitely not going to happen vs. a $400 PS4 with games like Bloodborne and The Order 1886 shipping in February. We are obviously talking about the N.A market which is still within reach for MS, though the gap is quite substantial now.
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...king-like-a-lost-cause.aspx#commentsBoxAnchor
In unrelated news, the guys at Mfool think it's dead or in their own wording:"lost cause".
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...king-like-a-lost-cause.aspx#commentsBoxAnchor
In unrelated news, the guys at Mfool think it's dead or in their own wording:"lost cause".
I agree but I think that things would have been closer between the PS4 and Xbox One for that 360 audience if the free game bundles alongside the price drop didn't happen. I think though that the free game(s) + price drop is going help push that audience even more.
_______________
Oh okay; I agree.
IAmRandom31
Banned
November won't be September, and that is what Microsoft needs. If they can only even things out with their biggest month of the entire year, by far, then that will not spell good things for 2015.
2015 will see the PS4 selling steady with spikes throughout the year as these big titles keep hitting early on and beyond. Then 2015 will see another spike when the PS4 drops to $299 permanently. Then more spikes with Uncharted 4 and No Mans Sky and games like that during the holiday season.
So really, November is it. And something tells me the X1 may outsell the PS4 that month, but it won't be a large margin. It will be like, 800K vs. 780K or something like that. They need to put together a string of 5-6 months of beating the PS4 by a large margin but I just don't see that in the cards.
2015 will see the PS4 selling steady with spikes throughout the year as these big titles keep hitting early on and beyond. Then 2015 will see another spike when the PS4 drops to $299 permanently. Then more spikes with Uncharted 4 and No Mans Sky and games like that during the holiday season.
So really, November is it. And something tells me the X1 may outsell the PS4 that month, but it won't be a large margin. It will be like, 800K vs. 780K or something like that. They need to put together a string of 5-6 months of beating the PS4 by a large margin but I just don't see that in the cards.
It's definitely a "lost cause" in terms of the XB1 ever catching up to the PS4 worldwide. Too big of a gap right now.
I see these recent moves as MS more so wanting to take North America back and/or end up in the top spot in the territory.
And yeah, I can't imagine MS going back to $400 after January. Would be stupid for them to do so. What I think they will do in February (or possibly sooner) is introduce a 1 TB SKU for $400 and keep the standard 500 GB SKU at $350.
I don't think it is. PS4 will be the winner in North America. The only thing that Microsoft can do is set up Xbox One as a strong second place, and I believe it will succeed.
Nightengale
Member
Not necessarily. If Nov/Dec does extremely well for them, I'd say it's worth going back to $400 (as an experiment) to see if they can increase the value perception of the XB1 console.
$350 (with bundled games) is a good tactical move, but it also begs the question of the value that the hardware is perceived to be worth. Each one of this move decreases the potency of further price cuts, because the product is seen to be worth less.
It's a risky play in the long term. Last thing MS needs is for their $299 mass market price play to be seen as 'meh', whereas PS4's $299 has the masses throwing their wallets at Sony.
Chobel
Member
Why would they do that? Most people would still end up buying the cheaper 500GB SKU, and IMO it won't help them at all raising the perceived value of Xbone.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
The difference in cost for Microsoft for a 1TB upgrade is less than 50USD. If even only 10% of consumers bought the premium version it would mean a little extra return on each unit sold.
Yeah, I think it's fine for them to go back to $400 in January when the sale is over (January 3rd). That month sees a huge drop in console sales anyway (for obvious reasons). I just think it wouldn't be smart for MS to keep the price at $400 after that month and stay there until Holiday 2015. These previous few weeks showed that the Xbox One needs some type of "1up" over the PS4 to stay competitive. Same price (without any free games) for weaker hardware isn't going to cut it in my opinion. The system needs to stay cheaper than the PS4 or else they will have to bank on the Holiday season all over again but this time even more since the gap will probably be even bigger this time next year (in NA) if they don't do it.
Definitely see where you are coming from. $100 price drop is more attention grabbing than a $50 drop. Hence, why I think MS needs to continue with multiple SKUs. I feel that they should go back to hard drive size SKUs when this free game promotion is phased out. There needs to be a decent gap in between the price of (say) a 1 TB SKU and a 500 GB SKU or else very few would get the 500 GB SKU (obviously). From there, they could give the cheaper priced SKU a smaller price drop in comparison to the price drop given to the SKU that's higher in price. After that, they could phase out the cheapest SKU and introduce a new (greater hard drive space) SKU that's more expensive than the leftover SKU and keep the cycle (for lack of a better way to put it) going from there. I think it would be smart too since hard drive size is far more important this gen than it was last gen (due to installs).
Just an idea. Might not even be a good idea (just stated it in this post without spending much time thinking about it) but overall, I think MS is going to have to keep on with various SKUs to stay competitive.
That would be the correct move in my book too. No way they are going to keep momentum by bumping the price back up. The $400, 1TB bundle will be more for show(options) rather than anything else. A $350 price point is where it's at as long as Sony doesn't drop price - and that is obviously dependent on Sony's tolerance level of sales disparities and market share, as well as profitability among other things. I just gotta wonder how MS financials look right now with all those bundled games, promotions and price drops - def not good.
PhD's post goes alongside my line of thinking + the perceived value of the Xbox One is largely based on the 500 GB SKU. A 1 TB SKU isn't going to hurt them if the standard 500 GB SKU is still there at a cheaper price.
Some will also see the 1 TB SKU at the same price as the PS4 (500 GB) a good value. I know there were a few people just this past week who got the COD bundle simply due to them wanting 1 TB of space (even though they aren't really big COD fans).
I think greater hard drive space out of the box will be viewed as attractive to some people as long as news keeps coming out about how big these current gen games are (as well as their updates).
Chobel
Member
So it's about trying to maximize the profits? OK I could see MS doing that. Still, I doubt this will increase revenues by that much.
You see, I think these people represent the minority, like real minority, I doubt they would even represent 5% of people buying Xbox.
Chaostar
Member
I was wondering that too, they have to be making a loss with every console sold, how are they justifying this to the investors who wanted rid of the Xbox division? Are they promising greater long term returns from software? This is not a sure bet because of the ever increasing WW sales gap and most people buying the majority of 3rd party games on PS4.
Even with Microsofts Scrooge McDuck room of gold I can't see how this is a viable long term strategy.
OT: There's a really good chance of MS taking at least one month of NPD wins away from Playstation this holiday but I think PS4 has October. I don't want to make any predictions because I'm usually waaay off anyway
I was wondering that too, they have to be making a loss with every console sold, how are they justifying this to the investors who wanted rid of the Xbox division? Are they promising greater long term returns from software? This is not a sure bet because of the ever increasing WW sales gap and most people buying the majority of 3rd party games on PS4.
Even with Microsofts Scrooge McDuck room of gold I can't see how this is a viable long term strategy.
OT: There's a really good chance of MS taking at least one month of NPD wins away from Playstation this holiday but I think PS4 has October. I don't want to make any predictions because I'm usually waaay off anyway
Well, that's the point, you can be way off.....it's just for fun, otherwise Pach threads wouldn't stay up long on Gaf.
I don't know if it would be that small. I do agree that they would be the minority though.
I just think that it's good to have options. One group will see an Xbox One at the same price as the PS4 with far more hard drive space as a good/better value while others will just be focused on getting a game box that's better than their old one at the cheapest price possible.
Jimmyfenix
Member
Anybody got predictions for software for October NPD?
My predictions so far.
1. Destiny
2.Smash
3.Sunset
4.NBA 2K15
5.Madden
6.Evil Within
7.Borderlands The Pre-Sequel
8.Alien Isolation
9.Fifa 15
10.Minecraft
My predictions so far.
1. Destiny
2.Smash
3.Sunset
4.NBA 2K15
5.Madden
6.Evil Within
7.Borderlands The Pre-Sequel
8.Alien Isolation
9.Fifa 15
10.Minecraft
slavesnyder
Member
October is pre-season anyway.
hope we will see a good spirit enlightening us with pie charts or whatever.
i am sure pachter has already made a stealth account, if only to make up for the trouble he caused last month.
hope we will see a good spirit enlightening us with pie charts or whatever.
i am sure pachter has already made a stealth account, if only to make up for the trouble he caused last month.
TheCarrotKiller
Banned
[360] 52k
[3DS] 130K
[PS3] 33K
[PS4] 295k
[WIU] 69k
[XB1] 249k
[3DS] 130K
[PS3] 33K
[PS4] 295k
[WIU] 69k
[XB1] 249k
You and many others seem to think, that noone of the afromentioned big untapped 360 group got a PS4 instead?
What if this group isnt really untapped? They could have:
- already gotten a PS4 instead. So they count towards the 360 untapped group because they are old 360 players that has not gotten a Xboxone yet. Doesnt mean, that they dont have a PS4 now.
- they are casual Gamers, that bought into the Kinect hype and doesnt care about Halo and other AAA games. This is the same kind of Consumer, that the WiiU currently lost.
- they dont care about console gaming anymore. A long Generation is surely enough to emancipate themself from the Dudebro Genre. Anyone really think, that someone that played Madden, CoD, Halo, etc. in College as a timesink, would care about a friend ecosystem? If they continue to game, most of them wouldnt probably care on what new system their College friends (who still continue to game on console and were not lost to mobile or quit (dudebro) gaming) were, when they ended their college education and got into a job. (I am specifically mention college and Young gamers here, because they were the main Clientel that was labeled dudebro, that was apparently so successfull on the 360)
Heck I game on PC most of the time and while I even didnt switch ecosystems, i lost good Friends and Guildmates to TIME. I dont have the same circle of friends that I had 2006, we are playing fundamentally different games now. And its even easier to stay in touch with your old friends through Teamspeak on PC, than through the game specific Chatrooms on Consoles. If you dont play the same games, you naturally would drift apart.
I just cant see the friend argument as a big Impact.
So? What if. What if there is not a big untapped 360 userbase? Lost to PS4, lost to nongaming, lost to mobile.
And the gamers who could wait 1 to 2 years before they make the switch, what is keeping them to the xbox ecosystem? If they cared about the ecosystem, their friends and new shiny gaming, they would have allready made the switch. The guys and girls who can wait 1 to 2 or 3 years before the switch, they just buy whats popular.
tldr: dont get your hopes up for a horde of 360 players that are just waiting for day X to buy their new Box.
XboxOne will be doing good in November, I think. But its not clear, that they will win it.
Jimmyfenix
Member
Lol lol oh hope springs eternal.XD
slavesnyder
Member
Heh classic Phil.
I wouldn't get your hopes up about cream or even aqua
Take hope from the heart of man, and you make him a beast of prey.
(just noted i can also be used for the post just above)