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December 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13th

D

donny2112

Member
AniHawk said:
[WIU] 550k

one of these months, an insane guess for the wii u has gotta pay off.
Click to expand...

Before realizing Reggie may have been talking about just through November, calculated a 40% YOY increase for Wii U translated to December sales. 650-700K. And 550K is considered an insane guess. ;P
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Actually, I wonder if Smash releasing in November might've moved potential sales from December. I want to put the Wii U lower, but that would also go against the YoY performance it has been doing this year, but I also don't really see it doing close to doubling November.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
donny2112 said:
Before realizing Reggie may have been talking about just through November, calculated a 40% YOY increase for Wii U translated to December sales. 650-700K. And 550K is considered an insane guess. ;P
Click to expand...

i considered that.

also, i think he wouldn't have said 40% if it really wasn't 40%.

990k is for jan-nov 2014. 736 is jan-nov 2013. that's a 34.5% increase. if anything i feel like he would have said 35% instead of giving it another 5%. numbers in higher amounts could be very well possible, however unlikely. but just to keep in line with 35%, they would have to have sold 650k for december. i'm just going to stick with november's 10% yoy growth instead and add a small amount.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
AniHawk said:
i considered that.

also, i think he wouldn't have said 40% if it really wasn't 40%.

990k is for jan-nov 2014. 736 is jan-nov 2013. that's a 34.5% increase. if anything i feel like he would have said 35% instead of giving it another 5%. numbers in higher amounts could be very well possible, however unlikely. but just to keep in line with 35%, they would have to have sold 650k for december. i'm just going to stick with november's 10% yoy growth instead and add a small amount.
Click to expand...

I have it at a 35.8% (992k vs 730k) increase. He also did say "about 40%", so he is giving himself some leeway with the statement.

Also that article was released on the 21st, so Reggie wouldn't all of decembers sales.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Wii U's YoY stint is fading, if anything this is the month it drops below last year's, although the deals this month (and the lack of them last month) might save that from happening

[XB1] 1400k
[PS4] 1200k
[3DS] 700k
[WIU] 475k
[360] 400k
[PS3] 111k
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
AniHawk said:
i considered that.

also, i think he wouldn't have said 40% if it really wasn't 40%.

990k is for jan-nov 2014. 736 is jan-nov 2013. that's a 34.5% increase. if anything i feel like he would have said 35% instead of giving it another 5%. numbers in higher amounts could be very well possible, however unlikely. but just to keep in line with 35%, they would have to have sold 650k for december. i'm just going to stick with november's 10% yoy growth instead and add a small amount.
Click to expand...

Welfare said:
I have it at a 35.8% (992k vs 730k) increase. He also did say "about 40%", so he is giving himself some leeway with the statement.

Also that article was released on the 21st, so Reggie wouldn't all of decembers sales.
Click to expand...


i really think reggie is speaking to general trends.

npd numbers generally line up with ~35%, and "about 40%" is a good ballpark estimate when you don't have hard numbers in front of you.



if cumulative yoy increases declined throughout december (if that ~35% dropped down to <25%), it would be prudent of reggie to brag about data through november only.

and besides, november npd just came out a week before that interview, so hard sell-through numbers for november were fresh in reggie's mind.
 
E

emrober5

Member
[XB1] 950k
[PS4] 870k
[3DS] 400k
[WIU] 490k
[360] 200k
[PS3] 150k

Microsoft wins again due to temporary price cut, but not as big of a win this month.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
theprodigy said:
Wii U's YoY stint is fading, if anything this is the month it drops below last year's, although the deals this month (and the lack of them last month) might save that from happening

[XB1] 1357k
[PS4] 1111k
[3DS] 777k
[WIU] 468k
[360] 444k
[PS3] 111k
Click to expand...

I am sorry to ask, but since I do not live in North America, could you tell me what deals were available? It would help my predictions quite a bit^^
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Wow, this thread is moving much slower than I thought. Is no one interested in making predictions anymore after what happened in the November NPD thread? Anyway, December is even harder to predict than November if you ask me. The PS4 had far more competitive deals last month than back in November. The AC Unity X1 bundle is still ahead in Amazon but I have no idea how other stores are doing. Insiders, any info?
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Aquamarine said:
the bombastic hype and speculation isn't there. this december isn't as exciting.

is it necessarily a bad thing for npd prediction threads to regress into sensible predictions and calm discussions?

hmm...
Click to expand...
Hey, I'm not saying that at all. I'm all in for sensible predictions and calm discussions if it keeps away the fanboys but I expected a lot more predictions and insider information in this thread.

And BTW, some predictions are way too low for a regular December. I'd expect at least 1.2M from each console.
 
B

biglittleps

Member
[PS4] 1020k
[XB1] 950k
[3DS] 500k
[WIU] 300k
[360] 250k
[PS3] 120k
[PSV] 50k

I got PS4 above XB1 as i feel for some reason PS4 did better for christmas.
 
P

Putty

Member
henhowc said:
there were definitely better deals for ps4 in december.
Click to expand...

US aside, here in the UK there's bee some very cheap PS4 bundles throughout December and Jan. As low as £279.00 in Argos. WW I'm pretty sure the overall gap continues to increase.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Javin98 said:
Hey, I'm not saying that at all. I'm all in for sensible predictions and calm discussions if it keeps away the fanboys but I expected a lot more predictions and insider information in this thread.
Click to expand...

yeah, don't mind me. i was being stupid.







the whole "microsoft is seriously going to raise the xbox one msrp back up to $399" fiasco is going to tank xbox one's january sales.

consumers do not react positively to price increases, especially post-holiday + given the xbox one's unique situation in the retail market. they're sensitive to this kind of thing.

i'm expecting sub-january 2014 numbers (<141k) for xbox one's january 2015.

it's a good thing that it was confirmed after the conclusion of the december 2014 npd retail period so december 2014 npd wasn't affected.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
theprodigy said:
Wii U's YoY stint is fading, if anything this is the month it drops below last year's, although the deals this month (and the lack of them last month) might save that from happening
Click to expand...

wii u was up 10% even before mario kart. perhaps people really bought into the recently dropped price last year, but i have to assume that big software made more of an impact this holiday season. i expect sales to be down yoy starting in january though.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Aquamarine said:
yeah, don't mind me. i was being stupid.







the whole "microsoft is seriously going to raise the xbox one msrp back up to $399" fiasco is going to tank xbox one's january sales.

consumers do not react positively to price increases, especially post-holiday + given the xbox one's unique situation in the retail market.

i'm expecting sub-january 2014 numbers (<141k) for xbox one's january 2015.

it's a good thing that it was confirmed after the conclusion of the december 2014 npd retail period so december 2014 npd wasn't affected.
Click to expand...

Considering how they've heavily anticipated demand thanks to the Holidays cut, and how they're reverting back to "pre-season" prices + One's whole story of prices so far (in just one year in the market), I wonder if, this January, One and Wii U could see simi-

...

Naaaaaah.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Aquamarine said:
yeah, don't mind me. i was being stupid.







the whole "microsoft is seriously going to raise the xbox one msrp back up to $399" fiasco is going to tank xbox one's january sales.

consumers do not react positively to price increases, especially post-holiday + given the xbox one's unique situation in the retail market. they're sensitive to this kind of thing.

i'm expecting sub-january 2014 numbers (<141k) for xbox one's january 2015.

it's a good thing that it was confirmed after the conclusion of the december 2014 npd retail period so december 2014 npd wasn't affected.
Click to expand...
Hey, no problem, dude. I took it as a joke anyway.

I'm actually not surprised at all Microsoft raised the price of the XBox One back to $400. No doubt sales will tank but there was no way Microsoft could continue taking up those losses like they were nothing
(no, not even with their "infinite" war chest)
despite being one of the biggest companies in the world. So will we see a 2:1 sales ratio for the PS4 and XBox One? Sounds highly optimistic but it depends on how consumers react.
 
S

Steverulez

Member
Aquamarine said:
the whole "microsoft is seriously going to raise the xbox one msrp back up to $399" fiasco is going to tank xbox one's january sales.

consumers do not react positively to price increases, especially post-holiday + given the xbox one's unique situation in the retail market. they're sensitive to this kind of thing.

i'm expecting sub-january 2014 numbers (<141k) for xbox one's january 2015.

it's a good thing that it was confirmed after the conclusion of the december 2014 npd retail period so december 2014 npd wasn't affected.
Click to expand...

They surely won't stay at $399 for long... perhaps they will wait until Evolve comes out then do a $349 bundle with the game for that. I know they have financials to consider but really... putting the price back is a bit of a stupid one and seems like their some poor short-term planning or wanting to scoop a bit of money back before a proper drop
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Steverulez said:
They surely won't stay at $399 for long... perhaps they will wait until Evolve comes out then do a $349 bundle with the game for that. I know they have financials to consider but really... putting the price back is a bit of a stupid one and seems like their some poor short-term planning or wanting to scoop a bit of money back before a proper drop
Click to expand...
I doubt Evolve would be commercially successful so bundling it might not have much of an impact. I expect a price drop at E3
 
S

Steverulez

Member
Javin98 said:
I doubt Evolve would be commercially successful so bundling it might not have much of an impact. I expect a price drop at E3
Click to expand...

No-one drops the price at E3, it precedes the worse selling months of the year, if they will do it it'll be for March/April which have a bit better sales iirc or they will wait until just before the holidays in August/September which they did on 360.

MS have no AAA exclusives in the first half of the year and are marketing Evolve and The Witcher 3 which is why I think they will go big on them, it makes sense.
 
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