StealthPandemic
Banned
Nice results!
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Microsoft FY2015 Q2: 6.6M 360+XBO Shipped
- Thread starter 1st Course
- Start date
StrongBlackVine
Banned
PS4 is eating heavily into the market share that Xbox 360 owned last generation though. 90 million is probably a given at 100 million definitely attainable.
With PS360 accountin for over 160 sales there is room for a 100 million seller unless. You think the core gamer crowd had left and joined PC too. Before this generation stareTed I doubt any one thought PS4 would reach 20 million so quickly.
Welfare
Member
Wait, just starting to get the LoU bundle? It's almost February.
StealthGoblin
Banned
I think Microsoft did well. They really need to focus on non-US and UK markets or Sony will run away with the market massively.
Sell through =/= shipped.
It sorta is, which is what I've been saying. One of the biggest markets in those 38 is Spain, where they probably sold less than 35k over 12 months. 28 of those countries only had access to it for less than four months. So if you figure 10 Spains at 35k each and a very generous 15k to cover four months of sales in each of the remaining 28, that only adds up to 770k. Add that to your 8.7M, and you only get 9.5M. And again, that seems a fairly generous estimate for those 38 countries. It's highly unlikely Tier 2 countries have averaged 15k each Sep-Dec. So to be clear, it seems like 9.5M would be the maximum, not the minimum.
Nope, you're forgetting that the 8.7m number excludes December for Germany and the UK (which is the busiest month) so using an estimate we can probably bump that number up to 8.8m or even 8.9m if you want to be optimistic.
In 2013, the other 9 tier 1 countries sold around ~610k alone. And from the trends we've seen, the USA, the UK, Germany and France have all pretty much tripled the amount they sold in 2014 (12 months) compared to 2013 (2 months). And whilst I'm not saying we'll see tripling of sales in other countries, we will certainly see increases over 2013 in just these 9 tier 1 countries. After all, If a product is on the market for 12 months in one year and 2 month in the year before it's obvious sales will be higher or at least match the previous year.
So even if we take the baseline as 610k for tier 1 in 2014 then you're looking at.... 9.5m as a minimum. Then you need to factor in tier 2 launch in an additional 29 or so markets with 4 months worth of sales.
Yes they're not going to be massive but they're going to be something.
And that's why I can easily see over 10 million sold through.
I'm not sure I follow you. How does phasing out Xbox 360 make it likely that its US to ROW ratio would increase?
The way I see it that while Xbox has always been a very US centered brand, Xbox One takes it to a whole new level. Its games, services and even UI are optimized for use by Americans and secondarily by native English speakers. It is not at all surprising, that US sales comprise > 60% of global figures.
Xbox 360, on the other hand, was somewhat attractive outside of US. In my opinion, its sales outside of US are increasing in relation to US sales, simply because US is already moving to the newer model while rest of the world is still happy with the old one.
Also, the super aggressive Xbox One sales in holiday season only applied to US and UK. Elsewhere the offers were much more in line with those of Xbox 360's. The incentive to buy an Xbox One over alternatives was much stronger in US. Anywhere else, it was just one console that was available for Christmas.
I would say it is highly likely that while US/ROW ratio for Xbox One tilted US way, for Xbox 360 it remained steady. Maybe even lowered a bit.
StealthGoblin
Banned
Oh I'd definitely say they are over 10 million sold through.
That does mean however that they have a significant number of consoles in warehouses or on shelves. More than a million. I would imagine they'd be in countries where the Xbox did well as Microsoft will have moved stock. It feels like they've given up on everywhere other than NA countries and the UK.
That does mean however that they have a significant number of consoles in warehouses or on shelves. More than a million. I would imagine they'd be in countries where the Xbox did well as Microsoft will have moved stock. It feels like they've given up on everywhere other than NA countries and the UK.
Doctor_Thomas
Member
I don't think they were ever truly targeting other countries anyway.
RespectThySole
Member
shadowsdarknes
Member
Nice. This is a helpful way to visualize it.
RespectThySole
Member
I've included black friday in the 8.7m
Ah okay. It should be around 9 million(maybe slightly less)
I think they probably did atleast 200k in the UK in December and around 60k in Germany.
That would be 8.96m
I don't think they can do anything about that.
The Artisan
Member
I thought the common belief nowadays was that the Ps4 has already won worldwide.
StealthGoblin
Banned
There is 'won' and then there is 'destroyed the competition'. Microsoft making a bit of effort could make the 'war' look a little bit competitive.
The Xbox One was built to monetize a lot of things. That was their business model. They were going to use your biometric data to sell targeted ads, they were going to be the No. 1 console for all the media apps and subscriptions etc. The more people who buy a PS4 instead of an XB1 means that the PS+/XBL money would be in Sony's pocket and not Microsofts.
If they don't try harder in other territories Sony will effectively 'lock in' all of that cash to their ecosystem and I assume, take a small cut of it all.
Nightengale
Member
Just putting in the effort to reduce... say... a 5:1 ratio to a 4:1 ratio is still an effort.
MS won't win WW, but there's a difference between handing it over to Sony or struggling to ensure Sony don't win too drastically.
IamSuperman
Banned
I agree, nice results
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
It's too late for that. The best MS can hope for is that they give a good account of themselves in the US.
TheHellsLord
Member
The 20% drop yoy in Xbox revenue seems to make sense given that the Xbox One had it's price cut from $ 500 to $ 349 for the revisions sold the most (without Kinect).
Not just that but they likely sold less games since people could get a few for "free".
Well it's mentioned in the OP anyway.
What I'm curious about is how many standalone Kinect they've sold.
airmangataosenai
Member
The logic would go like this: There is a certain point in sales where it stops being worth it to continue ordering new hardware, especially in territories where the system never did particularly well in the first place. Because America was so far and away their biggest market, it makes perfect sense that it would last longer here, and therefore as time goes on even as sales drop, US sales would account for more and more of the shrinking pie up until discontinuation. It's a bit like this with the Vita, it will probably continue selling in Japan much longer than it will anywhere else.
Except it didn't work out that way, at least in December. With only one exception the XBO SKU outsold the PS4 versions of every top charting multiplatform release at retail. If their software sales are poor due to that promotion, what does it say about PS4 with the larger user base and fewer free games being offered but still getting beaten?
This.
The only question they're concerned with whether they end up in close 2nd, 2nd place, distant 2nd, waaaaaaaay distant 2nd.
On paper, there doesn't seem to be much difference between each term but in context, there's a lot.
Look at the top 10 software of games on December's NPD.
Most of them sold more on Xbox 360.
I think it's too late for that. They've already ceded those markets to Sony while putting most of their focus on the US.
Another way to look at your proposed number is that this would mean they shipped 5.5-6M XB1 in Oct-Dec. Which would mean:
- They only shipped 0.6-1.1M 360 (down from 3.5 last year).
- They did at least as well as Sony on that Q, although the XB1 is only available in ~1/3 of the countries, and doesn't perform anywhere near as well as the PS4 in most of these.
IIRC NPD doesn't count games in official bundles but if retailers throw in additional games, these are tracked.
airmangataosenai
Member
You're thinking of this wrong. To get the 13 million or close to it, I am saying that the GAF estimates from previous months would be drastically wrong, with the XBO shipments going into October closer to 8 million than 7 million. Think of it as an alternate theory rather than a firm prediction, we reall don't have enough information currently to say one way or the other, but I feel like it's close to 12 than 13. XBO obviously did better than .6 million when it sold .7 in the US alone. 5:1.6 sounds like a good split to me. This would give the XBO and 360 a similar WW shipment ratio relative to their confirmed US sales (Although still giving the 360 the better ratio).
Well if retailers are the ones who are doing it themselves without it being an official promotion from Microsoft, then Microsoft still receives royalties. for the sale of the new game to the store, so it wouldn't affect their software revenue. I don't really know all of the officials promotions they did. Which of the games in the top 10 from last month did they give away for free but didn't include in a hardware bundle?
1st Course
Member
Today is Apple and EA earnings
Really excited to see how Apple did in China
Really excited to see how Apple did in China
Easier said than done though. The Xbox One isn't even ahead in US yet and for many of those territories MS probably doesn't even have a solid view on tactics that would even work whereas Sony as a brand is fully established and knows the market.
TBH while strategically MS should of course fight globally I think you'll find they're operating more on a tactical, fire fighting level right now. All the evidence points to this from chipping away at changing the offer (dropping Kinect, huge BF and holiday deals US and UK, etc) to their public comments which remain reactive.
You're right in principle but I think its a tough challenge. MS has to give most of their attention to US and UK, their hand is forced by the market and the likely result is allowing Sony to take WW comfortably and in most cases by a dominant margin.
There's honestly little MS can do I think.
If you're trying to explain it that way, you run into the same problem, because this would mean that in Apr-Sep MS shipped 2.9M XB1 and 0.6M 360. Down from 2.2M YoY, makes no sense either.
And we know that precisely at that time MS slowed down production of the XB1.
Wait so you think MS still gets money for the extra games retailers gave with consoles?
So essentially retailers are losing money? Sure.
Isn't the fact the Unity bundle which was suppose to last until Jan 3 is still result available indicative that they shipped too many last quarter then the rush to redrop the price.
These results are still better than expected for X1. They were probably able to ship near 4.5 million X1s while Sony will barely managed to ship a little over 6 million. Add to that some countries are being told they won't get supply till February and March. Sony is bungling their supply and distribution. Bungling is a string word but a year out and they are still having problems.
These results are still better than expected for X1. They were probably able to ship near 4.5 million X1s while Sony will barely managed to ship a little over 6 million. Add to that some countries are being told they won't get supply till February and March. Sony is bungling their supply and distribution. Bungling is a string word but a year out and they are still having problems.
Do you really think their is only 300k PS4's sitting around on shelves/distribution channels across the entire planet?
Even 1.2m might be low.
I'm buying the Surface Pro 4 whenever that hits alternatively if the high-end Surface pro 3 has a big sale then I may pick that one. Nonetheless a Surface pro is going to be bought this year for me
lifeexpectancy
Member
Fading faster than expected? Didn't the 360 sell 660,000 consoles during December? It was in its 9th year on the market and sold over 600k in December. For reference, the PS2 (aka The King) sold around half that (300k ish) in December of its 9th year.
I don't think it's fading. The 360 has some serious legs, much to current gen's detriment (more cross-gen games ahoy!). And with further price drops it will continue to see demand spikes. I could see hit hitting 90 million sold this year.
I'm not saying it will reach total LTD sales that PS2 did before it's retired, but I also don't think the 360 has even remotely 'died a death' as one user said.
Damn, this thread is going much slower than I thought. I was expecting at least 30 pages but was surprised (and disappointed) to see only 9 pages. Doesn't anyone care about the X1 sales?
Considering that Microsoft overstocked markets again, especially in the US, I'd expect the shipment numbers to be ~11.25 million. As for sold through numbers, I stand by my prediction that it is ~9.75 million unless Microsoft releases their sales figures.
LOL, I know, right? There should be at least 1.5 million X1's sitting in warehouses WW IMO. Yet when I made this statement, The Shogun called it out as ridiculous.
Yeah 10.5 million is their best case scenario for sold through but this is all speculation. Nothing is confirmed. We are going off a leak, PR, conference calls, and trends. If they overshipped 900k to 13 markets, how much did they overship to 39 markets?
We don't know the split of Xbox One and 360 and we don't know the shipped numbers for Xbox One. According to some all the major markets add up 8.7M as of Dec. 31st 2014. 1.8M are suppose to come from these really small markets that has been selling the console for 4 MONTHS! (which I just don't believe). My guess is 9.7M-10.5M. 9.7M would be in line with the 2:1 trend throughout 2014. 10.5M suggest that it sold nearly as well as PS4 worldwide in Q4. (Lol)
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
Birgitte2004
Member
If "Australia is up there" then there is very little chance the Xbox One sold a million in the ROTW. Australia broke records on the 360 by selling 100k in 7 months which included the launch period.
Brazil, Japan, and China have all apparently bombed.
Other than Canada, the remainder of the One markets are tiny. Tiny tiny.
If it got to 1 million in the ROTW for 2014 it squeaked there from what I can see with my (admittedly) very little knowledge.
Yeah, your prediction is in line with mine. Though I think 10.5 million would be the absolute highest estimation.
Pretty sure I was clear when I said 1.5 million in warehouses WW. And LOL at the picture.
That's probably because he forgot aboutDrethe RotW.
And here is The Shogun's reply to my predictions:
LOL, really? Thanks, edited.
Im at work at the moment and cant make a long post so i'll break down the sell through numbers I have for X1 a bit later today.
Well there aren't many are there?
In M units, sales up to indicates date:
USA 6.2 (Dec 2014)
France 0.42 (Dec 2014)
Germany 0.27 (Nov 2014)
Japan 0.045 (Week 3 2015)
Spain 0.051 (Sept 2014)
UK 1M (Mid-Nov2014)
I think that's it?
In Italy the PS4 was supposedly going to reach 500k sold at the end of 2014, with a market share of 75%, meaning XB1+WiiU are ~200k.