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July 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 11th

S

SupperCrunch

Member
First time predicting, so I hope that I won't be too off, especially in a slow month like July! Here are my (tentative) predictions:

[3DS] 90K
[PS4] 250K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 220K


My Wii U and 3DS predictions are primarily based off MoM and YoY sales for the two consoles. I was originally going to peg both the PS4 and XB1 at 30K lower, but June's surprisingly positive results have turned me more optimistic!
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Chobel said:
Not really sure about it. Xbox One lower price could give it the win this month.
Click to expand...
But it's been the same price since last year's holiday season. Besides, IIRC, there weren't any significant deals for the XB1 in July. On the other hand, the PS4 is still likely getting a decent boost from the Batman AK bundle. Just my two cents by the way.
 
S

SupperCrunch

Member
Conduit said:
According to Amazon, PS4 Batman bundle sold well and still selling well and it is highly positioned on Amazon for whole July.
Click to expand...

While I think Amazon is (mostly) good at indicating sales rank, I don't think we should take any meaning from sales position in Amazon monthly charts. We don't even know if the PS4 bundle sitting in 6th is greater than the two Xbox One bundles sitting at 22nd and 24th! In February 2014, despite the PS4 sitting at 3rd in the monthly charts and the Xbox One having only one SKU in 23rd, the difference was a minuscule 11K between the two consoles.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
[PS4] 230k
[XB1] 160k
[WIU] 50k
[3DS] 90k

No big promos or significant releases this month on XB1, and the end of the ACU bundle, should take its toll.
PS4 had some decent software, and the Batman bundle looks like it cleaned house.

Amazon monthly:

#6: PS4 AK bundle
#22: XB1 1Tb bundle
#24: XB1 MCC bundle
#74: WiiU Super Mario bundle

Edit for Suppercrunch

In late February 2014, Gamestop had a special promo on XB1s in preparation for the launch of TitanFall.
The situations are hardly comparable, but we'll see.
 
S

SupperCrunch

Member
Elandyll said:
Edit for Suppercrunch

In late February 2014, Gamestop had a special promo on XB1s in preparation for the launch of TitanFall.
The situations are hardly comparable, but we'll see.
Click to expand...

Ah, that would make a difference. Do you know if it was a trade-in promotion or just promotional pricing? That month has just been the month I think of first whenever someone uses Amazon sales data to extrapolate sales numbers. I still do think that we can't say whether #6 is meaningfully greater than #22+24 on Amazon, though, especially considering how the PS4 AK bundle has essentially replaced the regular PS4 with TLOU download code at Amazon (as the XB1 did with the AC bundle for a few months).
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
SupperCrunch said:
Ah, that would make a difference. Do you know if it was a trade-in promotion or just promotional pricing? That month has just been the month I think of first whenever someone uses Amazon sales data to extrapolate sales numbers. I still do think that we can't say whether #6 is meaningfully greater than #22+24 on Amazon, though, especially considering how the PS4 AK bundle has essentially replaced the regular PS4 with TLOU download code at Amazon (as the XB1 did with the AC bundle for a few months).
Click to expand...
I could find this, but I imagine there were other promos too. Titanfall was going to be the big thing of March in 2014...

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/xb...extra-50-percent-trade-in-offer/1100-6417948/
 
J

jjonez18

Member
Fat4all said:
Yeah, Rare Replay/Gears Ultimate vs. Until Dawn.

Should be fun ;)
Click to expand...

Is there not a Madden Bundle this year? I'm fairly comfortable giving XB1 August if that the case.

As for this month, it's gonna be a pretty boring. Whoever wins, it probably won't be by much. 4weeks of nothing but Baman Bundles, a remaster, and Golf.
 
F

Fat4all

Banned
jjonez18 said:
Is there not a Madden Bundle this year? I'm fairly comfortable giving XB1 August if that the case.

As for this month, it's gonna be a pretty boring. Whoever wins, it probably won't be by much. 4weeks of nothing but Baman Bundles, a remaster, and Golf.
Click to expand...

Ah, yes! Completely forgot the Madden bundle. Terabyte console and the game for $400, should do well!
 
M

Mezoly

Member
I think the Destiny bundle will lower the sales of PS4 this month just like the Batman bundle did when it went on sale(Pre-Order).
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Mezoly said:
I think the Destiny bundle will lower the sales of PS4 this month just like the Batman bundle did when it went on sale(Pre-Order).
Click to expand...

2 days of pre-orders won't affect a whole month of Arkham Bundles what are you talking about?

Edit: Oh you meant August? Disregard my post then lol
 
M

Mezoly

Member
Sangetsu-II said:
2 days of pre-orders won't affect a whole month of Arkham Bundles what are you talking about?

Edit: Oh you meant August? Disregard my post then lol
Click to expand...

Actually your first thought was right, I didn't realize that the bundle was on sale for two days only in July. So the Destiny bundle would affect August more than July.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Hey all.

Not a lot to say for this month. In our stores, we saw the ps4 continue to hold a lead in sales, the Batman bundle continues to do well for them. Nothing too crazy. It wasn't a tremendous lead for us, but it was definitely comfortable.
 
S

Shin-chan

Member
Hmm this will be my first month. I'll wait on my predictions for a while but I think the PS4 will have won by about as much as an ordinary month.

As for next month, I wonder if people will try to pin any X1 hardware bump on Rare Replay (which I feel will have a negligible impact) or Gears (which I feel will be the genuine cause). I'm definitely interested in the sales of the former, though. It's the most interesting thing on the Xbox until Scalebound comes out, for me.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Shin-chan said:
Hmm this will be my first month. I'll wait on my predictions for a while but I think the PS4 will have won by about as much as an ordinary month.

As for next month, I wonder if people will try to pin any X1 hardware bump on Rare Replay (which I feel will have a negligible impact) or Gears (which I feel will be the genuine cause). I'm definitely interested in the sales of the former, though. It's the most interesting thing on the Xbox until Scalebound comes out, for me.
Click to expand...

In August, the Xbox One will have a Madden and a Gears bundle.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Abdiel said:
Hey all.

Not a lot to say for this month. In our stores, we saw the ps4 continue to hold a lead in sales, the Batman bundle continues to do well for them. Nothing too crazy. It wasn't a tremendous lead for us, but it was definitely comfortable.
Click to expand...

As always thank you for your input, have you seen how the new Destiny Bundle pre-orders are doing. Are the pre-orders lower or equal to the original bundle?

Are they affecting Arkham Bundle sales?

Please and thank you :p
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
[3DS] 90K
[PS4] 250K
[WIU] 48K
[XB1] 210K


I don't think I will be able to pull an "Optimism for the win" kind of victory this month, but I do think things will drop only a little from their weekly average as word of mouth on Batman moves some more hardware and hype for Rare Replay/Until Dawn/Gears of War keep things relatively stable, but not too impressive until next month proper. Nintendo not doing too well for themselves, but they already kind of hit their "bottom line," so no reason to think it will move to far from there either direction.

Again, thanks to our retail team (of one now?ㅠㅠ) and Donny for making this possible^^
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Abdiel said:
Hey all.

Not a lot to say for this month. In our stores, we saw the ps4 continue to hold a lead in sales, the Batman bundle continues to do well for them. Nothing too crazy. It wasn't a tremendous lead for us, but it was definitely comfortable.
Click to expand...

Yup figured the batman bundle would help them this month too. I don't expect the sales to be as big as last month but definitely over 200k.

I think August will be a slow month overall. September should be a boost for PS4 with MGSV and the Taken King bundle.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
[3DS] 70k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 35k
[XB1] 200k
 
D

donny2112

Member
Stanng243 said:
We've lost our charts and graphs to give meaning and fuel debate.
Click to expand...

yoy_PS4_201506.png



yoy_XB1_201506.png



yoy_WIU_201506.png



June was amazing for PS4 and XB1. Will be interesting to see how it goes in July.
 
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