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July 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 11th

T

TomShoe

Banned
Back in my day, we didn't even use charts and graphs. That was some new-fangled technology no one but some yahoos in North Korea knew about. We used the moon and the stars to make predictions of our console sales. Every day I would wake up the morning and sacrifice a bit of virgin lamb's blood and pray to the console gods so my NPD points would be high, and my predictions would be just right without going over. It was a simpler life back then, me and my buddies dominated the charts. Then these damn charts came about, and the game was cheapened. Now anyone older than 10 could make a reasonable prediction nowadays. Some days, when nothing seems to work, I look back at the glittering stars, and yearn from the days I could get Xbox sales within the nearest 10,000th.

One day...
 
I

iBeleaf

Member
[PS4] 245K
[WIU] 35K
[XB1] 155K

PS4
- Batman bundle still selling well
- Rocket League bump?

XBONE
- Predicting a low month

WiiU
- disappointment
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
idlewild_ said:
well, do you see any charts and graphs in this thread? case closed
Click to expand...

Really man? Look up a few posts. I mean i know they arent as clean and professional looking as Zhuge's but they are solid and helpful

donny2112 said:
yoy_PS4_201506.png



yoy_XB1_201506.png



yoy_WIU_201506.png



June was amazing for PS4 and XB1. Will be interesting to see how it goes in July.
Click to expand...

Thanks for taking the time to post the graphs Donny. I honestly think this month is going to be really slow more because a lot of regular sales gaffers are getting smacked with the banhammer lately not just Zhuge. Its unfortunate but hopefully it won't impede discussion too much.

Zhuge if you are reading this you are here with us in spirit.

Also WE MISS YOU AQUA!
 
D

donny2112

Member
Javin98 said:
You did a good job, but personally, I prefer Zhuge's charts and graphs :p
Click to expand...

I'm more of an engineer in thinking (i.e. get the job done, even if it's not pretty on the first pass), so barebones is okay for me. Like graphs where time is taken to pretty it up, too, but at the end of the day, getting the data into a useable format is what I'm looking for. (^_^)

Blanquito said:
Donny, I really like the breakdown by average weekly sales amount. Those are useful, thanks
Click to expand...

You're welcome! Makes for a straight comparison across months (regardless of weeks in the retail month).
 
B

BrianRoyale

Member
I'll give it my first shot after lurking for a while on the NPD predictions.
[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 195K

I'm miss Zhuge on this thread.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
reposting from the thread in hopes of facilitating further sales discussion here

RexNovis said:
According to NPD and GFK the current install base for both PS4 and XB1 in North America (US and Canada) and Europe (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the UK) is 29 million.

This is up from 11 million i these markets at the same time last year.

Correction to title: as of June 30th.

Source ZhugeEX
bVa8UJA.jpg
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Worth mentioning that this does not include the Middle East, Latin America, Asia, Australia, or all countries in Europe.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Still stuck on page 3 damn. This months predictions are dead.

Let's give some life to this thread...

Seems like the Halo bundle is picking up steam at Amazon, been up in best sellers for 3 days now my question is will this bundle make people hold out until October?
Affecting August and September just like the Destiny bundle for PS4.

Also, Xbox has sooo many bundles this Holiday like jeez, what will they offer for Black Friday that they haven't already?
 
D

donny2112

Member
RexNovis said:
reposting from the thread in hopes of facilitating further sales discussion here


Worth mentioning that this does not include the Middle East, Latin America, Asia, Australia, or all countries in Europe.
Click to expand...

Didn't post these before, because they really don't help with monthly predictions. If you just want general sales discussion fodder, though ...

PS360vsPS4XB1_201506.png


LastGenx2vsCurrentGen_201506.png


LastGenx2vsCurrentGen_1-2_201506.png
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Sangetsu-II said:
Still stuck on page 3 damn. This months predictions are dead.

Let's give some life to this thread...

Seems like the Halo bundle is picking up steam at Amazon, been up in best sellers for 3 days now my question is will this bundle make people hold out until October?
Affecting August and September just like the Destiny bundle for PS4.

Also, Xbox has sooo many bundles this Holiday like jeez, what will they offer for Black Friday that they haven't already?
Click to expand...

Good luck trying to revive this thread when everyone is hyped for Gamescom. Anyway, I agree it's crazy how many bundles there are for the XB1 on Amazon. But the only one that will really count to August is the standard Halo MCC 500GB bundle. Regarding the Halo 5 bundle, I don't think it will affect sales of the XB1 in August and September significantly. It's a limited edition bundle meant for the collectors and hardcore fans which doesn't provide a good value to mainstream gamers.
 
M

Microsoft VP Hunert Smoke

Banned
Stanng243 said:
I'm curious, why do you think the xbox one will win?
Click to expand...

July:

Batman less effect.

Pre-build up to Rare Replay, Gears and Madden August.

Pre-build up to Gamescom

Certain announcement during july for this month.
Pre-orders for games this month and in september.

GS seems to have had deals in July with 3 months Xbox live card free with 1TB and 500GB bundles.
 
S

Stanng243

Member
Ricky_R said:
Do you need to ask? ;)
Click to expand...

I missed the name. I'd still like to know if there is actually logic there anyways.

Microsoft VP Hunert Smoke said:
July:

Batman less effect.

Pre-build up to Rare Replay, Gears and Madden August.

Pre-build up to Gamescom

Certain announcement during july for this month.
Pre-orders for games this month and in september.

GS seems to have had deals in July with 3 months Xbox live card free with 1TB and 500GB bundles.
Click to expand...
Given that the Batman PS4 bundle is the #1 console in Amazon rankings for July for consoles. and the bestbuy insider we have says the PS4 still had the lead, I'd be surprised for an Xbox win. What was the certain announcement you think that impacted sales?
 
J

Javin98

Banned
5Twist said:
So Microsoft Chad has turned into Microsoft VP Hunert Smoke. Interesting name choice...
Click to expand...
LOL, my thoughts exactly. I always wonder why some posters have the name of their beloved company in their username.
We all know why.
 
M

Microsoft VP Hunert Smoke

Banned
Stanng243 said:
I missed the name. I'd still like to know if there is actually logic there anyways.


Given that the Batman PS4 bundle is the #1 console in Amazon rankings for July for consoles. and the bestbuy insider we have says the PS4 still had the lead, I'd be surprised for an Xbox win. What was the certain announcement you think that impacted sales?
Click to expand...

Amazon???????????? Your not using the best seller list for real world sales right????


Then again apparently it seems by thinking Ms will win im being accused as an alt. So seems its not really a prediction threw at all?

Well regardless, elaborating my opinion, GS had a 3 month live card for free with 500gb or 1tb purchase, and looking online real quick if my Mobil loads the page properly, it seems that deal is going on this month as well.

The you had the build up and pre-orders for August games that may have moved consoles, and so on. Including no big game releasing in July.

Looking around Batman is moving what the TLOU bundle did before batman came out for this month so I don't see any advantage.

That's my prediction for this prediction thread, so disagree if you want.
 
S

sense

Member
Microsoft VP Hunert Smoke said:
Amazon???????????? Your not using the best seller list for real world sales right????


Then again apparently it seems by thinking Ms will win im being accused as an alt. So seems its not really a prediction threw at all?

Well regardless, elaborating my opinion, GS had a 3 month live card for free with 500gb or 1tb purchase, and looking online real quick if my Mobil loads the page properly, it seems that deal is going on this month as well.

The you had the build up and pre-orders for August games that may have moved consoles, and so on. Including no big game releasing in July.

Looking around Batman is moving what the TLOU bundle did before batman came out for this month so I don't see any advantage.

That's my prediction for this prediction thread, so disagree if you want.
Click to expand...

this is going well. begin phase 2 gaf :)

batman bundle seems to still be popular so I think an easy win for ps4 again this month. august with gears and rare replay may give MS an edge but personally i don't see MS winning until october.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
sense said:
this is going well. begin phase 2 gaf :)

batman bundle seems to still be popular so I think an easy win for ps4 again this month. august with gears and rare replay may give MS an edge but personally i don't see MS winning until october.
Click to expand...

Exactly, if this were August I would agree with Microsoft VP but considering that there is no free 3 month of live on GameStop (just a $10 discount) and that MS didn't release any games this month compared to the 4 console exclusive games PS4 had this month (J-Stars, Godzilla, GoW3:R, Oneechebara) I couldn't ever see MS winning July but August most definitely.
 
T

TomShoe

Banned
Has a build-up effect ever had any noticeable impact on console sales? Perhaps for heavily marketed games like Titanfall, but Gears Ultimate and Rare Replay aren't exactly huge titles. It even seemed like Batman didn't get its spike until the month the game actually released.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
LMAO at the insinuation that preorders would push consoles sales prior to release. That's not how the market works man. If they affect sales it will be on the month the game releases in unless its some uber massive game with an equally massive marketing budget that somehow breaks historical precedent. That would apply to something like Titanfall or Halo. As good of a deal as Rare Replay is I don't think anyone would consider it in the same league as the aforementioned titles. That is some truly creative logic you have concocted there.

Gamescom hype and Madden hype are just as absurd. These will impact sales the month of if at all. You really think people are going to buy an XB1 for madden the month before the madden bundle comes out? Come on. Also, I hardly think free 3 months of live will have much if any impact when compared to the boost seen with the trade in deals. Especially when discounts and deals are basically the norm for the console at this point.

edit: aaaaaaand hes gone. Must've actually been an alt. That guy sure is persistent.
 
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