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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

Bgamer90

Banned
Well good thing they had more options than multiplats am i right?

There's stuff to play from during previous months definitely. Smaller digital titles release all months during the year too. I don't think a person has to care about sales to want a lineup that has "big" titles outside of just the usual multiplats though (which was my point).
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
That criticism doesn't seem too genuine. The PS4 has had a large number of exclusive games this year. I don't see why it matters when they're released. PS4 owners or prospective buyers still get to play them. The complaint about Xbox was that Microsoft completely coasted on a few core franchises and stopped innovating, not that they didn't release core, exclusive games during a three month window and then everything was peachy outside of that. Is that really true of Sony?
 
There's stuff to play from during previous months definitely. Smaller digital titles release all months during the year too. I don't think a person has to care about sales to want a lineup that has "big" titles outside of just the usual multiplats though (which was my point).
I guess we are talking first party exclusives, which in that case guess you're sort of right because sony only had three this holiday season.
That criticism doesn't seem too genuine. The PS4 has had a large number of exclusive games this year. I don't see why it matters when they're released. PS4 owners or prospective buyers still get to play them. The complaint about Xbox was that Microsoft completely coasted on a few core franchises and stopped innovating, not that they didn't release core, exclusive games during a three month window and then everything was peachy outside of that. Is that really true of Sony?
So much this
 
All signs point to October being a coin toss.

Uncharted bundle ahead of Halo bundle on Amazon for the month of October. Abdiel weighing in that PS4 was selling more in Oct. MS PR silent on hardware sales other than some deceptive spin. This all points to possible/likely PS4 win by a small margin
 

Bgamer90

Banned
I thought Xbox 360 received criticism for a weak 1st party lineup all year long rather than just the holiday seasons.

"All year long" would include the Holiday season right (haha)?

My point though was that people criticize lineups when companies heavily push third party titles regardless of what was already released during the year and regardless of if those third party games are the best games during the year they release. The 360 had great smaller and/or digital titles after 2010, similar to what we're seeing with the PS4 now but some people ignore that due to them wanting "big" titles outside of just the AAA multiplats. The criticism that came from this was very rarely about sales considering the 360 was doing better than the PS3 anyway.

Once Mattrick's Kinect vision took over, the exclusives on 360 dried up. Or am I not remembering last gen correctly?

The Kinect vision consisted of Kinect titles (that were only on 360) so that couldn't be true. It IS true though that many weren't interested in those games.
 

IvanJ

Banned
All signs point to October being a coin toss.

Uncharted bundle ahead of Halo bundle on Amazon for the month of October. Abdiel weighing in that PS4 was selling more in Oct. MS PR silent on hardware sales other than some deceptive spin. This all points to possible/likely PS4 win by a small margin

I agree that it will be very very close. I do think that XOne will edge it out by a narrow margin.
But even if that were to happen, it will be a bittersweet victory, because the entire year leading to this everybody was certain that XOne will handily and easily bag October.
 
There's stuff to play from during previous months definitely. Smaller digital titles release all months during the year too. I don't think a person has to care about sales to want a lineup that has "big" titles outside of just the usual multiplats though (which was my point).
Dragon Quest Heroes came out last month. The Uncharted Collection came out last month as well. It isn't just smaller digital titles.
 
Dragon Quest Heroes came out last month. The Uncharted Collection came out last month as well. It isn't just smaller digital titles.
I was going to avoid a list but it's much more than that even and if we go buy what greenburg did and started this holiday off in august(just to include gears remaster amd rare replay) u get a while bunch more
 

Bgamer90

Banned
That criticism doesn't seem too genuine. The PS4 has had a large number of exclusive games this year. I don't see why it matters when they're released. PS4 owners or prospective buyers still get to play them. The complaint about Xbox was that Microsoft completely coasted on a few core franchises and stopped innovating, not that they didn't release core, exclusive games during a three month window and then everything was peachy outside of that. Is that really true of Sony?

Again, I fully agree that it shouldn't matter when titles release during a year (as long as they're good). I'm simply saying that when a company focuses heavily in third party titles then the criticism will be stated by people regardless of what was already released.

The 360 had a ton of games that couldn't be found on any other console that gen after Kinect's launch, it's just that many that made these complaints about heavily focusing on third party didn't care about those titles due to them being Kinect titles, "cheap digital titles", or entries in series that already had titles during the gen (Forza, Halo, Gears, Fable as you alluded to).

What I'm trying to say is that I'm not surprised the PS4 is getting similar (sort of shortsighted) criticism. A huge number of third party deals and advertising is all it takes for some people to feel this way.


_____________

Dragon Quest Heroes came out last month. The Uncharted Collection came out last month as well. It isn't just smaller digital titles.

I never said it was. I mentioned digital titles releasing all year because them alone makes the complaint not true. Again, I'm not the one criticizing PS4's 2015 lineup. I'm just saying that third party game deals and advertising will make complaints of this nature come up from people who couldn't care less about console sales.
 

Abdiel

Member
Dragon Quest Heroes came out last month. The Uncharted Collection came out last month as well. It isn't just smaller digital titles.

Tales of Zestiria, Sword Art Online Lost Song, and others get lost in the big releases, but still appeal to folks (like me)

And as for people asking about the system split:

PS4 was leading in the CoD sales for the 5 districts I checked. But it wasn't like it totally dwarfed the XB1 numbers. That was still tight runnings.
 

mejin

Member
If halo is not the flagship game it once was, what will be the new one?

I think Kinect is what put Microsoft in this situation. I feel they started to focus on fewer ips, their biggest ones only. New ip be damned, let's milk like there is no tomorrow, something like that. What we saw this year is that they killed Forza and Halo brand is damaged.

And now it almost seems they don't have any cards left. They bought Gears to help their lineup, but I don't believe it will be bigger than Halo. They are pretty much fucked since almost all multis are selling better on PS4. Maybe I'm just being pessimistic, but I remember N64 situation. It had great games, but people just prefered psone.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
The 360 had a ton of games that couldn't be found on any other console that gen after Kinect's launch, it's just that many that made these complaints about heavily focusing on third party didn't care about those titles due to them being Kinect titles, "cheap digital titles", or entries in series that already had titles during the gen (Forza, Halo, Gears, Fable as you alluded to).

I don't think the criticism was necessarily warranted, but still the difference in this case vs. that case, I think some would argue, is that Microsoft started playing it very safe as a first party when Sony did anything but. Through the end of the gen, Microsoft's output became extremely conservative whereas Sony was putting out games like Puppeteer, Beyond: Two Souls, Starhawk, etc. These aren't even necessarily good games, but they're most likely not super cheap or safe games.

I personally don't give a crap. And honestly the market does not either, obviously. But I don't think the knock on Sony this gen (or the KNACK ON SONY LOL) is that comparable.

edit: Also you people are crazy. Halo is still a flagship. It's massive. Gears will be very big, at least on par with Uncharted (well maybe not as much due to a smaller userbase). Microsoft IS diversifying their lineup too, so who knows, maybe Recore will be the next big thing.
 
At the time of Halo 3, it was THE GAME to play. There was no fierce competition from COD and whatever Battlefield reskin was in vogue back then. Then MW came out and COD moved to modern setting, Halo started losing relevancy. After MW2, it was obvious that no Halo (or no other FPS really) could hope to match COD juggernaught from that point on.

Nowadays Halo for Xbox is at the same popularity level as Uncharted for Playstation. A great selling exclusive, but not the COD-beater Halo 3 was at the time.

I don't predict numbers but I still think October is a win for MS, but waning Halo popularity most likely means PS4 has November and December on lock.
 
I don't think the criticism was necessarily warranted, but still the difference in this case vs. that case, I think some would argue, is that Microsoft started playing it very safe as a first party when Sony did anything but. Through the end of the gen, Microsoft's output became extremely conservative whereas Sony was putting out games like Puppeteer, Beyond: Two Souls, Starhawk, etc. These aren't even good games, but they're most likely not super cheap or safe games.

I personally don't give a crap. And honestly the market does not either, obviously. But I don't think the knock on Sony this gen (or the KNACK ON SONY LOL) is that comparable.

edit: Also you people are crazy. Halo is still a flagship. It's massive. Gears will be very big, at least on par with Uncharted (well maybe not as much due to a smaller userbase). Microsoft IS diversifying their lineup too, so who knows, maybe Recore will be the next big thing.
I'll be damned.

I fully agree with everything else though.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Sorry, I edited to add "necessarily." I forgot that word. I meant not necessarily good, as I didn't want to get into a mud slinging contest with the shithead DAVID CAGE SUX contingent.
 
I don't think the criticism was necessarily warranted, but still the difference in this case vs. that case, I think some would argue, is that Microsoft started playing it very safe as a first party when Sony did anything but. Through the end of the gen, Microsoft's output became extremely conservative whereas Sony was putting out games like Puppeteer, Beyond: Two Souls, Starhawk, etc. These aren't even necessarily good games, but they're most likely not super cheap or safe games.

I personally don't give a crap. And honestly the market does not either, obviously. But I don't think the knock on Sony this gen (or the KNACK ON SONY LOL) is that comparable.

edit: Also you people are crazy. Halo is still a flagship. It's massive. Gears will be very big, at least on par with Uncharted (well maybe not as much due to a smaller userbase). Microsoft IS diversifying their lineup too, so who knows, maybe Recore will be the next big thing.
You take that back right now! Sony i need a puppeteer ps4 remaster
 

bud23

Member
1´4-1´5 million is really disappointing.

Sony will win October, November and December NPDs.

That's not even a question anymore.
 
I don't think the criticism was necessarily warranted, but still the difference in this case vs. that case, I think some would argue, is that Microsoft started playing it very safe as a first party when Sony did anything but. Through the end of the gen, Microsoft's output became extremely conservative whereas Sony was putting out games like Puppeteer, Beyond: Two Souls, Starhawk, etc. These aren't even necessarily good games, but they're most likely not super cheap or safe games.

I personally don't give a crap. And honestly the market does not either, obviously. But I don't think the knock on Sony this gen (or the KNACK ON SONY LOL) is that comparable.

edit: Also you people are crazy. Halo is still a flagship. It's massive. Gears will be very big, at least on par with Uncharted (well maybe not as much due to a smaller userbase). Microsoft IS diversifying their lineup too, so who knows, maybe Recore will be the next big thing.

S9Am5.gif
 

Kyoufu

Member
I'd still be very shocked/surprised if Xbone didn't win October with Halo 5.

Then again I thought the GTAV bundle last year would keep MS at bay, and I was horribly wrong.

October NPD should be interesting.
 

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Even TLoU was taking a chance, a new IP when they had Uncharted was ballsy. I didn't see Bungie or Turn 10 try anything new last gen.

MS will edge out in Oct, it will be a technical win and not a very satisfying one. Who would ever think a Halo month would be close?
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
And now a user review on Amazon of Wasteland PS4

4 of 177 people found the following review helpful
1.0 out of 5 starsNot a big enough title
ByConnor333on October 13, 2015
Platform: PlayStation 4
This is October and I'm mad that games like this are filling up store shelves what a corrupt industry Where's my call of duty or something go Patriots NFL.
 

Conduit

Banned
I think ms is aware that Halo is no longer a cultural phenomenon. It is still a top tier fps franchise though and one of the crown jewels of their gaming IP. Sony has nothing in that vital space, absolutely nothing; so it is very important and will play a big role in getting next gen off to a good start. As such, I believe Spence when he says they are 'happy'.

How about Gran Turismo? It was cultural phenomenon ( especially GT3 ). What is Halo for FPS on consoles, that's a Gran Turismo for racing on consoles. Well, both franchise now have decline in sales.
 
I never said it was. I mentioned digital titles releasing all year because them alone makes the complaint not true. Again, I'm not the one criticizing PS4's lineup. I'm just saying that third party game deals and advertising will make complaints of this nature come up from people who couldn't care less about console sales.

I doubt the majority of those people care about sales and simply want more than just mostly yearly third party games (that I'm guessing they don't care much about) to play.

The Xbox 360 got criticism for doing the same during previous Holiday seasons last gen so PS fans (as well as people who moved over to PS4 after owning a 360) probably want to have more than just a lineup of multiplats this time of year.
I am essentially disputing the bold. There is more than multiplats. If the far bigger focus on third party titles masks that, then so be it. However, it is disingenuous to make the claim the PS4 is only getting multiplats or that the situation with the X360 and PS4 is the same.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
I don't think the criticism was necessarily warranted, but still the difference in this case vs. that case, I think some would argue, is that Microsoft started playing it very safe as a first party when Sony did anything but. Through the end of the gen, Microsoft's output became extremely conservative whereas Sony was putting out games like Puppeteer, Beyond: Two Souls, Starhawk, etc. These aren't even necessarily good games, but they're most likely not super cheap or safe games.

I definitely agree that the PS3's 2012-2013 lineup was better and more diverse than the 360's during that period.

I personally don't give a crap. And honestly the market does not either, obviously.

I don't either and I 100% agree. Sales of the 360 last gen and (now) PS4 show that the market simply cares about game support period. They don't see things by "1st party, 2nd party, 3rd party".

edit: Also you people are crazy. Halo is still a flagship. It's massive. Gears will be very big, at least on par with Uncharted (well maybe not as much due to a smaller userbase). Microsoft IS diversifying their lineup too, so who knows, maybe Recore will be the next big thing.

I agree with this too. The Original Xbox had Halo as it "big, new exclusive". The 360 had Gears. Recore could very well be the same for the Xbox One though I feel more safe/confident in saying that Quantum Break has a higher chance due to me actually seeing gameplay (and being impressed by the footage).

______________________

I am essentially disputing the bold. There is more than multiplats. If the far bigger focus on third party titles masks that, then so be it. However, it is disingenuous to make the claim the PS4 is only getting multiplats or that the situation with the X360 and PS4 is the same.

You put me saying "this time of year" in bold. The 360 had Halos, Forzas, and Gears, during Holdiays seasons where they got that criticism. You mentioned the Uncharted collection that was just released a few weeks ago but it still didn't stop some people from wanting more on their PS4.

My point was simply that third party deals during the Holiday season seem to always cause these feelings regardless.
 

Kyoufu

Member
Even TLoU was taking a chance, a new IP when they had Uncharted was ballsy. I didn't see Bungie or Turn 10 try anything new last gen.

MS will edge out in Oct, it will be a technical win and not a very satisfying one. Who would ever think a Halo month would be close?

Bungie had to buy their independence to do anything new.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I don't think it's fair to complain that Turn 10 only got to make Forza. That's basically what they do. It is an extremely specialized studio.
 

Shin-chan

Member
Yeah there aren't exactly a ton of big budget racing sim studios out there. I think Turn 10 is one of MS best in their portfolio for that reason. Probably their most consistent developer really. You can't really fault a dev for wanting to make stuff they've been tuning for over a decade.
 

Kyoufu

Member
I don't think it's fair to complain that Turn 10 only got to make Forza. That's basically what they do. It is an extremely specialized studio.

Is that really true though? Kazunori Yamauchi wants to make an RPG, but he keeps making Gran Turismo games. Is that because of how important GT is to SCE's business or is that just because they're a specialised studio? I mean, PD have made non-GT games in the past too, but ever since Gran Turismo became huge, have they done anything new?
 
You put me saying "this time of year" in bold. The 360 had Halos, Forzas, and Gears, during Holdiays seasons where they got that criticism. You mentioned the Uncharted collection that was just released a few weeks ago but it still didn't stop some people from wanting more on their PS4.

My point was simply that third party deals during the Holiday season seem to always cause these feelings regardless.
Well, I don't think it was about having big games in general for the X360. It was about not having diverse franchises beyond those core titles.

Sure, and I was just pointing out how those feelings are wrong despite the insistence.
 

Conduit

Banned
Cmon now.

Square agreed to the deal, Square ran the numbers, Square got the check.

On the bright side, Uncharted 5 (or a spin off) is not shipping any time soon AND Sony finding an adequate developer will be a monumental task. Still think it will be SSM in the end. No one else to trust.

But also MS will lose some money too. They funded the development - low sales = money loss. Square got the money, they will also lose some money, but bigger problem is - they jeopardized fan base trust.
 

HeWhoWalks

Gold Member
How about Gran Turismo? It was cultural phenomenon ( especially GT3 ). What is Halo for FPS on consoles, that's a Gran Turismo for racing on consoles. Well, both franchise now have decline in sales.

In Gran Turismo's case, that won't be known until a proper PS4 sequel releases. GT5 sold in line with previous releases (and its launch numbers were even higher than any predecessor before it). GT6 launched at a rather peculiar time, the dropping of a new PlayStation that it would not be on. Yet, it still managed to shell out 5 million copies.

A PS4 release is sure to top that without a hitch, and I'm willing to bet, will sell like GT's 4 & 5 (GT3 was bundled in a way that all other GTs were not, hence its LTD numbers).
 

Bgamer90

Banned
In Gran Turismo's case, that won't be known until a proper PS4 sequel releases. GT6 launched at a rather peculiar time, a releasse of a new PlayStation that it would not be on. Yet, it still managed to shell out 5 million copies. A PS4 release is sure to top that without a hitch.

Gran Turismo not having much competition in its genre (like Halo does) will definitely help it too.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
I'm still thinking MS somehow sold 500k XboxOne.

We'll find out in 5 more days!

As I said in my previous post, it's possible if the Halo 5 bundle sales are covering up a lower Halo game launch. I'm still not sure what to predict yet for number of consoles sold in October (was far more confident before Microsoft's statement).
 

N.Domixis

Banned
As I said in my previous post, it's possible if the Halo 5 bundle sales are covering up a lower Halo game launch. I'm still not sure what to predict yet for number of consoles sold in October (was far more confident before Microsoft's statement).
That number was world wide, so a few thousand per country adds up to certain part of that revenue. And who knows what they count when they say hardware.
 

Osahi

Member
There's stuff to play from during previous months definitely. Smaller digital titles release all months during the year too. I don't think a person has to care about sales to want a lineup that has "big" titles outside of just the usual multiplats though (which was my point).

What are you talking about? With uncharted, dragon quest, until,dawn, tearaway,... were as many or more exclusives on ps4 then xbox one this year. Not all first party, but that doesn't matter.
 

Shin-chan

Member
Gran Turismo not having much competition in its genre (like Halo does) will definitely help it too.

I mean, let's not be disingenuous. There's a reason there is less competition for GT than Halo. The sales potential for an FPS with a heavy multiplayer focus is far far far greater than that of a sim racer.

Gran Turismo gets its sales with little competition but it also manages to achieve ridiculous numbers in a market where no other game can even compare at all (in terms of sales).

Halo gets good numbers but in a market where the yearly sales capacity is reaching into dozens of millions.

The racing genre would probably struggle to provide any publisher a million sales at launch unless the game is called GT or Need for Speed. That's a testament to the strength of the brands of those games - it's not because of a lack of competition but because the whole genre is insignificant outside of these two names, and even more so when you limit this to sim racers.
 

Ricky_R

Member
Gran Turismo not having much competition in its genre (like Halo does) will definitely help it too.

That doesn't help Forza though. The brand is just big (bigger than Halo in sales btw, which is rather impressive considering we're talking about a sim racer), and it would sell well regardless.
 
What are you talking about? With uncharted, dragon quest, until,dawn, tearaway,... were as many or more exclusives on ps4 then xbox one this year. Not all first party, but that doesn't matter.

Personally, I think Bloodborne, Until Dawn, Uncharted, and Tearaway make this an entirely respectable year for exclusives. Very surprised by some of the hate. Bloodborne alone is the highest rated exclusive of this Gen.
 
Personally, I think Bloodborne, Until Dawn, Uncharted, and Tearaway make this an entirely respectable year for exclusives. Very surprised by some of the hate. Bloodborne alone is the highest rated exclusive of this Gen.
Actually, it is second. Super Mario 3D World edges it out ever so slightly.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
That doesn't help Forza though. The brand is just big (bigger than Halo in sales btw, which is rather impressive considering we're talking about a sim racer), and it would sell well regardless.

Agreed. I was simply saying that it not having much competition (e.g.: yearly multiplatform entries in the genre) will help GT out even more.

And speaking of Forza, I don't know if GT will chart on NPD either whenever it releases. It's safe to say though that GT will do well worldwide.

Forza would be in a much better position if the Xbox brand was more popular worldwide.

____________________

What are you talking about? With uncharted, dragon quest, until,dawn, tearaway,... were as many or more exclusives on ps4 then xbox one this year. Not all first party, but that doesn't matter.

Heh, again -- I'm not saying the PS4 had a weak year. I'm pointing out the fact that some people seem to dismiss exclusives when a console brand heavily pushes/focuses on multiplats.
 
I still don't think it is a 1:1 comparison with what occurred to the X360...

Either way, I don't understand the complaints when we know titles like UC4, R&C, SFV, Gravity Rush, etc... are coming early next year. It would be different if there was a drought early next year and they were just riding on third party titles for the foreseeable future. That isn't the case though.

As such, it makes me question what it is about the holidays and needing to play big games? What difference does it really make playing UC4 just a few months later?
 
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