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Jefferies Equity Analyst: Mario Kart 8D a "mega-hit on a different scale altogether"

Eliseo

Member
MK is a beast.
Zelda returned to be a beast.
Smash will come and will be a beast
Splatoon is a new kind of beast
Xenoblade 2 will be a beast

And the old beasts just waiting :

Mario
Metroid
DK

But for me the most important signal will be the sales of Skyrim.

If Bethesda feels fine about them this could mean Fallout 4 on Switch or Dishonored 2 ports. Skyrim could be the flagship for the return of AAA games from external developers.

Meanwhile good numbers for MK, and glad the Switch has had a good beginning

I doubt we will ever see a new metroid game.
 

Kyzer

Banned
MK is a beast.
Zelda returned to be a beast.
Smash will come and will be a beast
Splatoon is a new kind of beast
Xenoblade 2 will be a beast

And the old beasts just waiting :

Mario
Metroid
DK

But for me the most important signal will be the sales of Skyrim.

If Bethesda feels fine about them this could mean Fallout 4 on Switch or Dishonored 2 ports. Skyrim could be the flagship for the return of AAA games from external developers.

Meanwhile good numbers for MK, and glad the Switch has had a good beginning
Third party support hinging on late ports is part of the problem
 

RRockman

Banned
What I find weird about the perception that Switch users are starved for games is that this is the first time in the last five years that I feel like I'm not starved for games on my Nintendo system.

I've got great content coming basically every month for the rest of the year.

Reggie isn't the only spin master yknow...
 
It's perhaps the second meaningful release on a console that's starved for games - I don't think its success is all that surprising with that context.

giphy.gif
 

gafneo

Banned
Amazing how a thinner form factor in device gets a zillion more attention. Humanity and their obsession with thin.
 

DMONKUMA

Junior Member
MK is a beast.
Zelda returned to be a beast.
Smash will come and will be a beast
Splatoon is a new kind of beast
Xenoblade 2 will be a beast

And the old beasts just waiting :

Mario
Metroid
DK

But for me the most important signal will be the sales of Skyrim.

If Bethesda feels fine about them this could mean Fallout 4 on Switch or Dishonored 2 ports. Skyrim could be the flagship for the return of AAA games from external developers.

Meanwhile good numbers for MK, and glad the Switch has had a good beginning

Maybe simultaneous ports instead of late ones.

A new Metroid is in the works. President of Nintendo said it himself.

Uhhh.....I don't remember that.

There probably is a new Metroid in production but whether it sees the light of day is the question.
 
Mario Kart is an established franchise. It's been around for 25 years now. Folks don't see it as a racing game, they see it as Mario Kart, it's almost in a genre to itself. It's practically a party game at this point, bolstered by the Switch's "out of the box" multiplayer functionality.

Tons of people will be buying Minecraft because it's Minecraft. It again will be bolstered by less competition and more word of mouth because it's on that new Switch thing everyone is talking about.

It's literally the Wii/Wii Sports situation all over again where a console is selling well because of it's software and the software is selling well because the console is popular.
Mario Kart is definitely a sub-genre within itself, seeing how it has inspired several clones.
 

kswiston

Member
Smash 4 Switch is going to do insane numbers.

Smash 4 already was pretty insane. The 3DS version is going to eventually crack 9M on its own. And Smash U had a 40% attach rate.

I could see the entire collection cracking 20M combined. Maybe 25M.
 

maxcriden

Member
I doubt we will ever see a new metroid game.

Earlier this year Reggie alluded to a Metroid announcement. He said something to the effect of, check in with me in a year about Metroid and see if we don't have something to talk hour by then. I expect a Metroid announcement of some stripe by the end of the year. I think a 2D Metroidvania is entirely possible but a 3D Metroid wouldn't surprise me and would have a lot of appeal for Western audiences.

Not really, no. It did alright in the west given the genre and the limitations on the first game's distribution by NoA. Both were sort of lacklustre in Japan.

Thanks for the info! I'll reply to you about 3DW here as well. I agree it may not see a port for a long time if ever. One thing I think we could see down the line though as an effort for further evergreen monetization of software is a Wii U port line for games like Tropical Freeze and 3DW, perhaps digital only, or perhaps in bundles like 3DL+3DW or DKCR+TF or WWHD+TPHD in one game apiece.
 

Anteo

Member
Something something dead on arrival.

Something something weak launch.

Something something only zelda.

Something something b-but Wii U

Something something droughts

Something something third party

We need the wiiu chalkboard back. But reversed for the switch : X will doom the switch.
 
Mario Kart is an established franchise. It's been around for 25 years now. Folks don't see it as a racing game, they see it as Mario Kart, it's almost in a genre to itself. It's practically a party game at this point, bolstered by the Switch's "out of the box" multiplayer functionality.

Tons of people will be buying Minecraft because it's Minecraft. It again will be bolstered by less competition and more word of mouth because it's on that new Switch thing everyone is talking about.

It's literally the Wii/Wii Sports situation all over again where a console is selling well because of it's software and the software is selling well because the console is popular.

I guess I just disagree then, because never in my life have I met anyone, even here on GAF, who has bought a game they didn't want, or in a genre they didn't like, just because of either the name of the game, or because there was nothing else to play.

Minecraft sells a lot because it's a fun game to play that's boundaries are like literally that of the player's imagination. Like Mario Kart, Minecraft is almost a genre of it's own, and there are a LOT of people who don't like that genre. Even if there's overlap, like people who like adventure games, not every person who likes adventure games is gonna buy Minecraft. Either they "don't get it" or the visuals are ugly or any number of reasons. Those people exist. They aren't going to buy Minecraft just because it's Minecraft or because there's nothing else to play on their system of choice.

Likewise, not every person who likes racing games likes cart racers like Mario Kart. If someone has a Switch, and they want a racing game, they're not necessarily gonna buy Mario Kart just because it's Mario Kart. They'll buy NEO or whatever the two other futuristic racing games are out for it are called (or is only one of them out? I can't keep track because there are so many games in such a short period of time). I own an Xbox One, and I like certain racing games but not racing sims. If there was a lull in releases and just a Froza game coming out during it I wouldn't waste $60 on Froza just because it's Froza, or just because it's a new game during a month or two of no other releases.

That sounds like total madness to me. Are there really people who will spend money on a game they otherwise wouldn't really want to play just because of its name or because there's nothing else to play during that month?

Earlier this year Reggie alluded to a Metroid announcement. He said something to the effect of, check in with me in a year about Metroid and see if we don't have something to talk hour by then. I expect a Metroid announcement of some stripe by the end of the year. I think a 2D Metroidvania is entirely possible but a 3D Metroid wouldn't surprise me and would have a lot of appeal for Western audiences.

How would a 2D Metroid be "Metroidvania" and not just... Metroid? Like... Metroid is part of (the first part even) the word "Metroidvania" hahahaha are there other kids of 2D Metroid games? (genuine question, I've only ever played Prime ;__; )
 

NOLA_Gaffer

Banned
Something something dead on arrival.

Something something weak launch.

Something something only zelda.

Something something b-but Wii U

Something something droughts

Something something third party

It's just like the Wii days and I fucking love it. Haters getting pissy about Nintendo's releases selling well. Remember when Wii Play topped the charts for months? Good times.
 

kswiston

Member
Thanks for the info! I'll reply to you about 3DW here as well. I agree it may not see a port for a long time if ever. One thing I think we could see down the line though as an effort for further evergreen monetization of software is a Wii U port line for games like Tropical Freeze and 3DW, perhaps digital only, or perhaps in bundles like 3DL+3DW or DKCR+TF or WWHD+TPHD in one game apiece.


I guess I could see a Switch version of the gamecube port line we had on Wii at some point in 2018/2019. They could sell some of the Wii U ports for $30 as low risk line-up fillers.

I do think that the focus will transition to completely new stuff next year though.

EDIT: And by new stuff, I mean non ports. Either new IPs, or new entries in classic series.
 
Not really, you could take that Wii U everywhere and plug that thing in airports and have a screen


You mean also take the box it comes with? That's like me taking a ps4 slim with a monitor with you. Lol, most of my buddies bought a Switch even though they were wii u owners because of the full portability of it. It being fully portable was a huge deal and it's also the MAIN reason I bought my first Nintendo console since the N64.

There are also many people on this forum who owned MK8 for wii u and bought it for the Switch because MK8D in portable mode is amazing just as Zelda is.
 

NOLA_Gaffer

Banned
I guess I just disagree then, because never in my life have I met anyone, even here on GAF, who has bought a game they didn't want, or in a genre they didn't like, just because of either the name of the game, or because there was nothing else to play.

Minecraft sells a lot because it's a fun game to play that's boundaries are like literally that of the player's imagination. Like Mario Kart, Minecraft is almost a genre of it's own, and there are a LOT of people who don't like that genre. Even if there's overlap, like people who like adventure games, not every person who likes adventure games is gonna buy Minecraft. Either they "don't get it" or the visuals are ugly or any number of reasons. Those people exist. They aren't going to buy Minecraft just because it's Minecraft or because there's nothing else to play on their system of choice.

Likewise, not every person who likes racing games likes cart racers like Mario Kart. If someone has a Switch, and they want a racing game, they're not necessarily gonna buy Mario Kart just because it's Mario Kart. They'll buy NEO or whatever the two other futuristic racing games are out for it are called (or is only one of them out? I can't keep track because there are so many games in such a short period of time). I own an Xbox One, and I like certain racing games but not racing sims. If there was a lull in releases and just a Froza game coming out during it I wouldn't waste $60 on Froza just because it's Froza, or just because it's a new game during a month or two of no other releases.

That sounds like total madness to me. Are there really people who will spend money on a game they otherwise wouldn't really want to play just because of its name or because there's nothing else to play during that month?

Man you are totally misunderstanding me.
 

gafneo

Banned
Not exactly. He did strongly allude to it though. See my reply just above.



I agree. I didn't think of that before. Money left at the starting line.
Metroid is being made. Nintendo couldn't do it for Wii U because of sales. 3DS is probably going to get one in 2018 as a swan song. Wii 1 sold so hardcore that we got a trilogy and a sequel to Super Metriod.
 

SomTervo

Member
It's perhaps the second meaningful release on a console that's starved for games - I don't think its success is all that surprising with that context.

1. It's only starved for games if you consider 'games' as 'first party games' - even then, the few first party games we have are excellent.

2. It's not starved for games. There are a bunch of great indies already on there with tons more incoming.
 

D.Lo

Member
It's perhaps the second meaningful release on a console that's starved for games - I don't think its success is all that surprising with that context.
"Pft, Wii Sports isn't that popular. People are only playing Wii Sports a lot because it's the only major game on the console they bought to play Wii Sports."
 

maxcriden

Member
I guess I could see a Switch version of the gamecube port line we had on Wii at some point in 2018/2019. They could sell some of the Wii U ports for $30 as low risk line-up fillers.

I do think that the focus will transition to completely new stuff next year though.

The issue to me for selling them individually for more than $20 is that many of them are individually formally marked down to $20 at present by Nintendo. That's where I was thinking the multipack idea could come in. Especially with how platformers in particular have been devalued by gamers over the past 10 or so years. I agree we will see few ports beginning next year, with the exception of Smash and Pokémon of they haven't hit by the end of this year. In with the new, for sure - but despite that I do see some way for certain 3DS and Wii U games to make it to Switch in some fashion or another, however long it takes. Next year is the 20th anniversary of OOT for example and I've heard it suggested we could see a port of the 3DS version (and maybe MM3D could be bundled in). With Switch fans hungry for Zelda that makes sense to me. But, I digress. I agree the focus will very much be on new games next year.
 
Please tell me people were saying this back in 2008. Please.

People were convinced that GTAIV (and MKWii) release month would be the month the 360 and PS3 finally outsell the Wii in NPD.

What actually happened is both of those consoles sold worse than the previous month while the Wii shot up to a ridiculous record number for a non-launch/holiday month thanks to Mario Kart.
 

gafneo

Banned
You mean also take the box it comes with? That's like me taking a ps4 slim with a monitor with you. Lol, most of my buddies bought a Switch even though they were wii u owners because of the full portability of it. It being fully portable was a huge deal and it's also the MAIN reason I bought my first Nintendo console since the N64.

There are also many people on this forum who owned MK8 for wii u and bought it for the Switch because MK8D in portable mode is amazing just as Zelda is.
The Switch is huge. You need a bag for it. The Wii U is a tiny console that requires outlets. Both suck up battery that it's barely portable to begin with anyway.
 

maxcriden

Member
Metroid is being made. Nintendo couldn't do it for Wii U because of sales. 3DS is probably going to get one in 2018 as a swan song. Wii 1 sold so hardcore that we got a trilogy and a sequel to Super Metriod.

I don't disagree one is coming, though I'm less convinced of a 3DS entry than I once was. But I wasn't disagreeing that Metroid is being made, only that Reggie said this, since he hasn't formally said so. He's only alluded to it, albeit significantly so.
 
Come on guys, people are only buying it in droves because it's an amazing game on the hottest console ATM, it really doesn't mean much. Nintendo stays losing after this fluke.
 
It's just like the Wii days and I fucking love it. Haters getting pissy about Nintendo's releases selling well. Remember when Wii Play topped the charts for months? Good times.
No one is getting pissy about these games selling well.
People are having issues with delusional fanboys acting like Switch is the second coming two months into its launch.
I'm sure people are happy it's selling well. It's fantastic for the industry.
 

DMONKUMA

Junior Member
I don't disagree one is coming, though I'm less convinced of a 3DS entry than I once was. But I wasn't disagreeing that Metroid is being made, only that Reggie said this, since he hasn't formally said so. He's only alluded to it, albeit significantly so.

I mean if anything by the end of this year we should see something if he was truly alluding to one.
 

MisterHero

Super Member
Come on guys, people are only buying it in droves because it's an amazing game on the hottest console ATM, it really doesn't mean much. Nintendo stays losing after this fluke.
Also Nintendo is promoting Mario with McDonald's. They can't do Mario Kart because they did that last year :p
 

Cipherr

Member
IT'S SELLING WELL BECAUSE IT'S MARIO KART.

Mario Kart 8 managed 8 million units sold on a userbase that barely broke 11 million. If there's a safe bet for a game selling well, it's Mario Kart for sure.

The next one's gonna be Minecraft. Minecraft's gonna sell like goddamn crack cocaine because it's Minecraft.

Why hasn't Minecraft on WiiU sold gangbusters if its the IP that determines the sales potential and not the console install base or other factors?

Or is that one of those 'exceptions' you get to make because it shoots holes in your point?
 
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