I went through most of the characters today so I can better understand my options against other characters. Characters with advanced movement options just have such a huge advantage, and I don't know if I see that changing.
I played quite a few matches as Master Mummy and Byte/Barq and you have to work so much harder to win. I was still winning (against press/Nintendo Treehouse), but the lack of movement options makes it considerably more difficult to win, especially when fighting against a Twintelle or Ribbon Girl.
Just food for thought, here's my super early, won't matter in two weeks, will probably change completely, why am I even bothering tier list.
S-Tier: Twintelle, Ribbon Girl
A-Tier: Spring Man
B-Tier: Kid Cobra, Mechanica
C-Tier: Master Mummy, Min Min, Ninjara
D-Tier: Byte & Barq
Helix isn't listed because I feel as though I need more time to really look into his movement and evasion options. If it works how I think it works, I would probably put him at B-Tier.
Also, this is assuming all Arms are equal since you can mix and match Arms as much as you like.
Quick Explanations:
Twintelle and Ribbon Girl - Best movement options in the game hands down. Twintelle can charge in the air, while Ribbon Girl can evade in the air better than any other character.
Spring Man - You can keep the deflect up 90% of the time, leaving very little room for opponents to get in an attack. Add to this the fact that he gets free charge at low health meaning he can focus even more on deflection instead of worrying about keeping a charge.
Kid Cobra - Best ground evasion, but you lose charge when used and attacking out of the added evasion isn't as instant as Twintelle and Ribbon Girl.
Mechanica - Super armor plus decent evasive options. She has really bad matchups against Twintelle and Spring Man because they're charged basically all the time.
Master Mummy - Super armor is nice, but he's way too slow with ground evasion. This forces you into the air where you're vulnerable or you have to turtle up. If you turtle you really need to use heavy Arms to just plow through attacks, but the heavier Arms are easier to evade forcing you to play even more defensively. You can heal, but it's extremely difficult to evade a throw at close range and just as hard keeping an opponent away.
Min Min - I should probably play with her more, but I don't feel as uninformed as I do when it comes to Helix. Deflect is nice, but it's only an aerial option. As soon as you hit the air, you have to deflect accurately or you're left vulnerable. On the ground she's average at best.
Ninjara - Same issues as Min Min. You need to be in the air to use the teleport effectively. This makes it very easy to punish once you know how the ability works. On the ground he's just a normal character unless you're blocking, but even then the teleport option is limited.
Byte & Barq - Very poor ground movement. Barq is difficult to position well. He always tries to move if you're directly behind him. Jumping on Barq is good, but can be difficult to use effectively because Barq doesn't move well enough for you to quickly jump on top of him. While Barq's punches can save you or add damage to a combo, Barq is also very easy to knock out. Short jump deflection is decent, but again, not easy to setup in a real match and the advantage isn't significant unless you have a life lead already, plus a well-timed punch will knock Barq out even with short hops in play.
I'm not sure how "high level" it was but during the last Test Punch session I was getting paired with really good players, and I'm starting to understand what you've been talking about. Even throwing just one punch limits your movement so much while dashes can be used so frequently with practically no drawback. I didn't start getting wins against them again until I focused on dashing and evading while only punching when they got impatient and threw a punch making themselves vulnerable. At least at mid to close range, that was the case.
There may be the Punch > Grab > Block chain, but Punch vs Dash is something else entirely. First thing I'm doing is checking Vs. CPU with evasive setting. I just hope there isn't a hard-counter ARM since that would mean everyone would need to use it. I don't think it's a "problem" per se so far, but I wouldn't be surprised if this interaction isn't one of the first things that patches considers. Even a slight increase to cooldown after a dash before you can do another action would go a long way.
If Nintendo nerfed the dash in some way, it would be interesting to see how the game evolves. At that point I'd have to think blocking becomes the go-to for defense, but you can only block so much. I think you block and watch for a throw to interrupt.