This would be difficult since range plays a big role in what you can and can't punish. You also have to factor in the Arms your opponent's using and the Arms you're using. A lot of variables go into the punishment system in this game.
We were dicking around and, at certain ranges and closer, it actually is pretty possible to punish stuff if you make the appropriate counter movement even after the punch travel time consideration (assuming the person doesn't push buttons, which is another factor since there will be the durability stuff to consider at this point).
I was mostly surprised that we could even punish Ninjara counter move consistently at one point (like, this is from holding block and then mashing dash), but the windows is pretty tight and it seems like counter move back dash is the safest option... but this involves giving up some positioning, which you may or may not be able to afford at certain points.
That's the point I'm making though. You can't base your offensive and defensive options on what the average player does. I'm talking about how the game will be played at the highest level. Saying most people don't block on wakeup and basing high level play on that is like saying most Ken players use wakeup DP and basing your strats on that.
I get what you're saying, but I'm only trying to look at this from the highest level of play to know what works and what doesn't, instead of what works against common players and or may not work against good players.
To be honest, we're both kinda veering off into theory land since the game isn't even out yet.
Once they start rolling out competitive footage in a few months, we'll see for sure, but I highly doubt the best players are gonna be people who, by default, never throw something out first.
(actually, can you whiff punches in this game to build meter? I didn't check, but having super, which can be brought into subsequent rounds, is really powerful and you can put people on notice once you have it)
Someone eventually has to do something at some point in the match. Their guess may or may not be rewarded depending on how in the head of the opponent they are.
My concern with your line of thought is the idea that whoever attacks second and gets the first hit is always guaranteed to win at high level because they'll play solid enough for 99 seconds to keep the life lead, but this actually makes no sense since this also implies that people can actually turtle up and somehow get out of the throw/punch mixup 100% of the time to keep that life lead.
(do regular arms do chip damage? I haven't really looked at the zoning stuff yet)
I guess what I'm saying is that it feels like you're associating high level play with absolutes, but people aren't robots even if they're top tier players lol
But then, I'm implying that the community around the game will actually grow enough to see high level and god knows if it will if it has a lot of baggage going in lol
I'm not saying that defensive will not be viable and all people are doing will be rushdown, but offense isn't too bad of a playstyle to reach into if you figure your opponent out. Having a fluid playstyle is pretty important in any game, I think.
If the opponent guesses or reacts to your throw, they can punish you for 200-300 damage without a super. That's a hefty risk.
I guess I wasn't clear. Throw isn't the only movement punishment option. Of course I'm gonna go with a punch here and there depending on how risky it feels. Throw is only if you really really know and want the mental advantage of having punished a movement option with it.
Even at close range I'd guess the fastest throw in the game is probably at least 20 frames. In Tekken most competitive players think you can react to anything that's greater than 17 frames. If you narrow that down to only one option to look out for then you can react much faster.
Here's the thing: movement options and even the orientation is pretty different in this game. I feel that there's sufficient randomization to cause people to flinch and choose the wrong option on defense (also, steering... I was still kind of surprised at how much one player I played with was able to steer their throw, though their problem is that they leaned too much into the one option), but I guess we won't know for sure until tournaments get played.
Attacking first is always more detrimental to playing defensively.
- From a distance you can attack first and I'm probably too far away to punish, but I'll still evade.
- From the mid-range you can attack first and more often than not I will punish you for it or we'll break even, trading punches with no damage dealt.
- From close range if you guess right and catch a dash, you get a hit by attacking first. If you guess wrong, I don't dash until I see you punch, or I evade in any other manner, you lose 200-300 health.
Assuming a player goes in with charged punch (which is another reason why getting knocked down is sort of a blowup: it gives the person standing enough time to get a charge going), there shouldn't be a huge damage differential since they can choose to forego throw and tag you with the electric – throw combo or whatever too.
But, really, all this discussion does hinge on whether or not throw/punch mixup will be strong enough to overcome someone who chooses to take their turn second. We don't really know yet, but I don't want to assume something isn't viable unless people have played long enough to prove otherwise.
You're always at a disadvantage when attacking first.
Like I said, you can say that about any FG. It's theoretically possible to punish Robert's whiffed st B/lk/whatever with super (I've seen the AI do it lol), but it's not what always ends up happening.
Someone has to throw something out at some point in the match and it's entirely possible that they guess correctly and will do so the entire match, regardless if the match is played at "low" or "high" level. We'd like to assume that Arms isn't too strenuous on reactions and whatever, but we're at like -2 to -3 weeks in the meta that may or may not go anywhere depending on how much people play.
If you're using motion controls, it's the top button on the left joycon "dpad". But I think it switches if someone hits you or something. It's odd and annoying. Not to mention, your only indication of who you're facing is which way the character's head is tilted, which is useless when both opponents are close to one another
I think I remember testing it and it seems like, coming out of the recovery of an animation, you can put up a guard input faster than the time it takes to change targets, which is really fucking stupid.
EDIT: Actually, this might not be accurate and I might just be derping... regardless, waiting for recovery to change targets is pretty awful when you should be able to just do this on the fly.
I also don't like how the lockon deprioritizes when your target gets knocked down.
They honestly need to fix how targeting works and just make it something independent of animations/states or whatever since it might be what fucks up the pretty interesting 2v2 mode >_>
