Despite everything I've said in this thread about Microsoft focusing less on singleplayer exclusives and more on online services, I think the exclusives it got during the early 360 years were a big factor in how MS got ahead back then.
MS was getting a lot of multiplatform games on 360 months before they came to PS3 (Oblivion, BioShock, GRAW I believe) in combination with Gears, plus the Japanese exclusives Sony usually relied upon weren't there. By the time Sony caught up in the later years of that generation MS could just coast on having the "default" platform for multiplatform games while continuing to improve XBL. This problem with MS only having Halo, Gears, and Forza has been a problem since then. MS is using the same strategy now but PlayStation is the "default" platform now because MS messed up its marketing message starting out. Plus the Japanese exclusives have returned to PlayStation.
MS is pushing ahead though with Scorpio, BC, Game Pass, and I guess you could also count EA Pass. I think you could have even counted Xbox Game Preview before Sony started doing basically the same thing (or has that not started yet?). Actually, another thing MS is probably betting big on is its plan to make every Xbox One effectively a dev kit and allow a much wider swath of indies into the XBL/Windows 10 ecosystem. ID@Xbox has kind of backfired because of the exclusivity clause but it seems MS is counting on the new XBL/W10 dev system having a lower barrier of entry to get more indies on. At this moment I'm thinking that could turn into another Xbox Live Indie Games, just extended onto Windows and MS's other devices.
Though, I still think MS's weakness in continental Europe and Asia is potentially a bigger problem. If MS is so focused on online services, why isn't it trying harder to push those services in China, Korea, Southeast Asia, and maybe Russia and Brazil?
Looking back at MS's current IPs, I really don't see any that could be turned into big online-oriented things, because that's what MS is all about right now. A Fable MMO? I imagine MS is looking at what the most popular console genres are, and in North America they are shooters and sports games. MS has Halo and Gears, and "sports" includes cars which it has with Forza. EA wouldn't like MS competing with it in football (Gridiron or Association), hockey, golf, or UFC. I guess MS could try to compete with Sony and 2K in baseball and basketball respectively. Baseball might be the more valuable once since you have to own a PlayStation to play a new baseball game right now, so making one available on Xbox and PC might mean more to some people. Don't know how the MLB feels about licensing though. Same goes for the NBA actually.
TLR: I could see MS investing in a first party MMO or a sports game, most likely baseball, but not a singleplayer open-world RPG.
The question isn't "where is Microsoft's answer to Horizon and Zelda" but "where is Microsoft's new IP that knocks everyone's socks off this gen". With the OG Xbox they had Halo, 360 they had Gears of War. Weather you like these series or not they both have inked their place in gaming history and more importantly, got people to buy and Xbox. Microsoft still hasn't had a new IP this generation that has really been big beyond the core Xbox fanbase.
Right now you see both Microsoft and Sony moving their first (and second) party efforts to meet their strengths, single-player story driven games for Sony and multi-player focused service games for Microsoft, because their efforts in dabbling in each other's strength's just haven't resulted in much success (Killzone/Resistance for Sony, Remedy partnership for Microsoft). The issue is that while there are a decent number of big third party single player games, a lot of the big third party publishers are also moving towards games-as-a-service model.
Halo and Gears were at peak popularity around the same time that Call of Duty and Battlefield initially started their explosions into popularity. There were fewer options in the multiplayer field, making the Xbox 360 the go-to console for people who wanted to get great multi-player experiences. While COD and Battlefield were big, there were far fewer games in that field that Halo and Gears had to compete with.
COD and Battlefield's immense popularity carried over to this gen, and this gen has brought new IP's like Destiny, Overwatch, The Division, and For Honor. All hugely successful multiplayer games. Even Titanfall, despite not finding as much success, still exists as another option for people looking for multi-player games. Combine this with Battlefront, Rainbow Six, and Ghost Recon all coming out with hugely successful new entires and there's now way more options for multi-player fans than there were 10 years ago when Halo and Gears were the talk of the town, and all these are available on PS4 also.
Because of this, multi-player fans no longer feel the need to buy an Xbox to get these experiences, there's plenty of them on PS4. Coupled with Sony's marketing deals/bundles with games like Destiny, Battlefront, and COD and Xbox is no longer the "go-to" console for multiplayer games. This benefits Sony because they no longer feel compelled to try to find the next big multi-player hit, hence they are free to build on their strengths. It hurts Microsoft because their games have to compete for players with all these other multi-player games, and they're just never going to.
As a result of all this Microsoft is in a tough spot. We all want them to create these new IP's that are awesome, and in a way they have. Ori is fantastic, and Sunset Overdrive and Quantum Break are cool games, but none of them were these mindblowing experiences that resulted in any boost in console sales. Hence they chose to focus on their strengths. We're still waiting for their Halo/Gears of this generation, but given the rise in popularity in the same genre that MS' strengths are, we very well may not see a new IP that reaches that level at all
Great post. There's a much higher amount of competition on the online shooter realm this gen compared to last gen -- a whole bunch of them that are actually solid and stable. Meanwhile Sony is benefiting a bit from an increase in Japanese story-driven singleplayer games, which were somewhat rarer last gen so people miss them.
This is also why I arrived at the suggestion of an MMO or a sports game for the next new MS IP. RPGs are getting to be the next biggest genre on consoles below action games and sports games, and there isn't a gigantic amount of MMO competition on consoles right now. Destiny, Diablo 3, and The Division are more co-op RPGs whereas the only big console MMO I can think of off the top of my head right now is Final Fantasy XIV. Oh and Elder Scrolls Online. A MOBA maybe? Nobody has really gotten one to fully work on a console yet, and it would be an even bigger challenge for MS to get one working on both Xbox and Windows 10.