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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|

C

Captain Tuttle

Member
Master Yoshi said:
637


This hurricane season, so far. Best of luck to everyone. I need a fucking generator.
Click to expand...

I've thought about it, not for hurricanes specifically but for more local outages. I
m in SE Pennsylvania

You get slammed this year?
 
B

BattleMonkey

Member
perfectchaos007 said:
basically, necessities. I would argue that a generator is a necessity when its balls hot outside and you don't have a/c but I guess the government sees it differently
Click to expand...

Many Puerto Rican's do not have A/C in their houses in the first place. Most of my family is from Aguada and Aguadilla area, and none have A/C in their homes
 
B

BattleMonkey

Member
Dishwalla said:
How do y'all live? Is it humid there? If it's anything like the South A/C should be a necessity.
Click to expand...

I can't stand it, but the people are used to it, they have lived all their lives without a/c in the home so it's just what they are used too. Fans are common in most homes. More newer construction and near the capital you do have more homes with A/C. One of the factors that stops people from getting a/c is also the stupid high cost of electricity in PR. Running A/C takes alot of power and the utility bills on the island are insane, so many just can't afford to have a/c running all the time.

It's an island, it's about as hot and humid as South Florida...
 
T

TheDrizzlerJ11

Member
Is PR really as humid as South Florida (which is pretty much a swamp)? That doesn't seem right... My parents grew up in South Florida without a/c. Wasn't that common back in the 60s guess. They said they had fans and the pool to cool down.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Maria projection as of 11 PM 9/17:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 14.2N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 14.7N 59.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 15.4N 61.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 16.9N 63.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 18.5N 67.0W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
96H 22/0000Z 20.0N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 23/0000Z 22.0N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH​
 
M

MrJames

Member
11PM is out

However, all indications are that the shear should diminish
during the next 24-48 h, which should allow steady to rapid
strengthening. The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model
forecast better than a 50 percent chance of 25-30 kt of
strengthening during the next 24 h, and about a 35 percent chance
of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h. Based on this, the
intensity forecast has been increased to show Maria becoming a
major hurricane in 24 h and a category 4 hurricane in 48 h.
Click to expand...

INIT 18/0300Z 14.2N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 14.7N 59.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 15.4N 61.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 16.9N 63.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 18.5N 67.0W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
96H 22/0000Z 20.0N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 23/0000Z 22.0N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
Click to expand...

U2bKcp2.png
 
K

Kusagari

Member
A Cat 4 at landfall over PR?

Fuck...

Edit: The SHIPS model is also giving it a 33% chance of actually strengthening to a Cat 5 in that time span.
 
M

mo60

Member
Jose or it's post tropical remnants may mess with Maria's track like a week from now.I don't see jose going away for awhile if it does not make landfall anywere or a trough does not pick it up..It may even restrengthen a week from now if it dips south enough if vertical shear is not to crazy.
 
B

BattleMonkey

Member
TheDrizzlerJ11 said:
Is PR really as humid as South Florida (which is pretty much a swamp)? That doesn't seem right... My parents grew up in South Florida without a/c. Wasn't that common back in the 60s guess. They said they had fans and the pool to cool down.
Click to expand...

Lived in both for around 15 years, they are very similar climate wise
 
G

GYODX

Member
Yikes at those wind speeds...

I've noticed that it's shifted north with every forecast. 5:00PM had it exiting the island somewhere between Añasco and Aguada. 8:00PM had it between Aguada and Aguadilla, where I live. Latest forecast has it exiting through Isabela, almost Quebradillas. This seems like a big shift, maybe?
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
GYODX said:
Yikes at those wind speeds...

I've noticed that it's shifted north with every forecast. 5:00PM had it exiting the island somewhere between Añasco and Aguada. 8:00PM had it between Aguada and Aguadilla, where I live. Latest forecast has it exiting through Isabela, almost Quebradillas. This seems like a big shift, maybe?
Click to expand...

There are a couple of models, including the reliable UKMET, that now have it going north of PR now, which is positive
 
R

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
BattleMonkey said:
Many Puerto Rican's do not have A/C in their houses in the first place. Most of my family is from Aguada and Aguadilla area, and none have A/C in their homes
Click to expand...
I live in Aguadilla and everyone around me has AC. Hell, I cannot live without AC. Don't know how people stand the humidity and heat. Fun fact.. If track does verify it will exit over us or really close to me.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Jose knows he can never top his big sister, so he just wants to go down as the longest lasting storm ever.

He'll be still doing loops in October.
 
Z

zulux21

Member
Kusagari said:
Jose knows he can never top his big sister, so he just wants to go down as the longest lasting storm ever.

He'll be still doing loops in October.
Click to expand...

now you have me curious... what is the longest lasting storm ever and how close is jose to it?

a quick search seems it might be ginger which lasted 28 days.

how many days is jose at, at least 15 if I recall right.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Maria bumped to 90 (from 85) in the 2 AM.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 59.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES​
 
M

mingoguaya

Member
Relix said:
I live in Aguadilla and everyone around me has AC. Hell, I cannot live without AC. Don't know how people stand the humidity and heat. Fun fact.. If track does verify it will exit over us or really close to me.
Click to expand...
You live in Aguadilla also? Nice, where exactly? I live in Guerrero.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
This is awful. PR just got a glancing blow from Irma. Maria is forecast to be a direct hit at Cat 4 status.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 14.2N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 14.7N 59.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 15.4N 61.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 16.9N 63.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 18.5N 67.0W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
96H 22/0000Z 20.0N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 23/0000Z 22.0N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
Click to expand...
 
T

TarpitCarnivore

Member
The current Euro is pretty different from the GFS for the mid-Atlantic region. It has Jose and Maria doing a dance with Jose going back south to the Carolinas.
 
C

Culex

Banned
zulux21 said:
now you have me curious... what is the longest lasting storm ever and how close is jose to it?

a quick search seems it might be ginger which lasted 28 days.

how many days is jose at, at least 15 if I recall right.
Click to expand...

Typhoon John was 31 days, according to NOAA. Swirled in the pacific for a full damn month!
 
V

vonStirlitz

Unconfirmed Member
Maria can just fuck off and die. Caribbean just dealing with the aftermath of a Cat 5 and this comes along. Fucking awful.

There are people in the VI and elsewhere that are only just getting power and running water back. Who have covered their broken roofs with temporary tarpaulin. Who have spent the past week clearing roads and ghuts and getting their lives back in order.

And then this fucker comes along.

Sigh.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Looks like NHC in 8 am notice went on the save side at 110 mph, still a significant increase though.

FYI recon found 102 knot surface winds and 109 knot winds 1 mb above surface (i.e., not very high above ground). That is equivalent to 117 to 125 mph equivalent.
 
O

OmniGamer

Member
I'm freaking the hell out...I'm worried about my tenants in PR, as well as the potentially severe property damage this damn storm will cause, (especially the one in Arecibo)...and the long-term severe damage to the infrastructure and utilities there. I can't afford extensive repairs or tenants unable to work/get paid, and in turn pay their rent. Fuck!
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Jose is officially "dead" as a storm; it has become extra tropical and no more updates are planned per NHC.

OmniGamer said:
I'm freaking the hell out...I'm worried about my tenants in PR, as well as the potentially severe property damage this damn storm will cause, (especially the one in Arecibo)...and the long-term severe damage to the infrastructure and utilities there. I can't afford extensive repairs or tenants unable to work/get paid, and in turn pay their rent. Fuck!
Click to expand...

Do you not have insurance? Insurance on rental properties can include loss of rental income due to a disaster. May want to check.
 
M

MrJames

Member
maabus1999 said:
Jose is officially "dead" as a storm; it has become extra tropical and no more updates are planned per NHC.
Click to expand...

Not yet. 11AM still has it as a Cat 1. Expected to be post-tropical by day 3 though.

Maria dropped from 967mb to 959mb in three hours. Winds up to 120mph

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18
Location: 14.7°N 60.1°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.7N 60.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.1N 61.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 62.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 17.6N 65.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 19.5N 68.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
 
G

gdt

Member
Goddamn Maris is going to swallow PR. Then DR and Haiti are next. Fuck.

Some family in PR, lots and lots of family in DR.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
MrJames said:
Not yet. 11AM still has it as a Cat 1. Expected to be post-tropical by day 3 though.
Click to expand...

I meant to say NOAA instead of NHC earlier but for whatever reason the NHC Discussion doesn't match up with NOAA's bulletin. Something is crossed with Jose between the two agencies.

TXNT26 KNES 181203
TCSNTL

A. 12L (JOSE)

B. 18/1145Z

C. 33.4N

D. 71.1W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. EXTRATROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS JOSE BECOMES PURELY
TROPICAL AGAIN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
Click to expand...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/JOSE.html
 
G

Griss

Member
MrJames said:
Not yet. 11AM still has it as a Cat 1. Expected to be post-tropical by day 3 though.

Maria dropped from 967mb to 959mb in three hours. Winds up to 120mph

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18
Location: 14.7°N 60.1°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.7N 60.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.1N 61.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 62.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 17.6N 65.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 19.5N 68.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
Click to expand...

Hmm... this has it at 140mph when it passes us. Let's hope the northward turn holds up.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
Fuck.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 181459
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Maria is undergoing rapid intensification. The aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 115 kt in the northeastern
eyewall, along with reliable-looking surface wind estimates from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer as high as 104 kt. In
addition, the estimated central pressure inside the 10 n mi wide eye
has fallen to 959 mb. The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt,
making Maria a major category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The small eye is also apparent in radar data
from Martinique.

The initial motion is 285/9, a little to the left of the previous
motion. Other than that, there is little change in either the
forecast philosophy or the forecast track. A high pressure area to
the north of Maria should maintain a general west-northwestward
motion for the next three days or so. After that, the high weakens,
which should allow the hurricane to turn gradually northwestward and
north-northwestward. The new forecast track is changed little from
the previous one, and it calls for Maria to move through the Leeward
Islands in 12-24 h, approach the Virgin Islands in about 36 h, then
cross Puerto Rico between 48-72 h. The new track lies to the left
of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the
ECMWF.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer.
This is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for
Maria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly
conservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h. From 72-120 h,
land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected
to cause some weakening. On top of these general trends, there is
also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur
that would affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to
maintain category 3 to 4 intensity through the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane watch is in effect for that island.
A hurricane warning will likely be issued later today.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.7N 60.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.1N 61.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 62.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 17.6N 65.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 19.5N 68.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
Click to expand...
 
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