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December 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13th

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Not too surprising. The first 2 weeks of the price drop in November for MS were massive.

I know, but it's still December, a month with usually higer sales (also because there's one more week counted). Plus, it's not like December was deprived of great deals for the console: the insanest one (One AC bundle + Destiny + 50$ gift card for 349.99$) was for December, after all. Certainly, it's still a pretty good result, no question about it, but.
 

cakely

Member
The Xbox One deals were quite popular and have inspired a new promotion starting January 16 where fans in the U.S. can buy an Xbox One for $349 at their preferred retailer.

But ... I thought I was supposed to be eating crow because clearly, that Xbox One price drop was only temporary?
 
Nov + Dec 2006 for 360 was 1.641m

50% more than that is 821k + 1.641m = 2.462m

Minus the 1.23m it did in Nov and you get 1.23m for Dec?

close. it's 1.643 million.


Can someone check that Nov and Dec 2006 had the same amount of reporting weeks as Nov and Dec 2013 - seems weird to have that 'weekly sales' qualifier if it means nothing at all. Doubt it affects those quick and dirty numbers mentioned above...

ps3ud0 8)

november 2006 npd tracked sales from october 29th, 2006 through november 25th, 2006.

december 2006 npd tracked sales from november 26th, 2006 through december 30th, 2006.




and i'm not saying or implying anything about whether or not this xbox one calculation is accurate, so don't read into this post.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
If XBox One sold ~1.2m and win big, PS4 sales are kinda disappointing

If PS4 is at 1 million, it would still be decent enough. Under 1 million in December, after selling around 830,000 units in November...eck.
 

Javin98

Banned
LOL @ Microsoft dropping the price back to $349 already in less than two weeks. They must have seen the Amazon charts. ;)

Back on topic, so the X1 won December, huh? Question is by how much. I'd say ~100K
 

allan-bh

Member
If PS4 is at 1 million, it would still be decent enough. Under 1 million in December, after selling around 830,000 units in November...eck.

Under 1 milliom for the market leader is bad. Xbox One really hurt PS4 sales if that happened.
 

catmincer

Member
LOL @ Microsoft dropping the price back to $349 already in less than two weeks. They must have seen the Amazon charts. ;)

Back on topic, so the X1 won December, huh? Question is by how much. I'd say ~100K

I'd assume it'd be much, much more thn that. Thinking 300k at least.
 

Jonboy

Member
I gotta say, I truly didn't think price mattered this much. I mean, of course it's important and a huge part of the success/failure of a product. But it's just insane to me that being $50 cheaper would result in that big a swing.

It's impressive for sure. Anxious to see how Sony counters this. In the previous months, it wasn't really necessary because they were so far ahead. They built a big lead and sat on it for a while. With the race now essentially a dead heat, I believe it's time for a counter-move.
 
close. it's 1.643 million.




november 2006 npd tracked sales from october 29th, 2006 through november 25th, 2006.

december 2006 npd tracked sales from november 26th, 2006 through december 30th, 2006.




and i'm not saying or implying anything about whether or not this xbox one calculation is accurate, so don't read into this post.

IF they hit around 1.6 million truly an incredible holiday performance to Xbone. Who would have known after how rough of a year it had how awesome of a performance it would close the end of they year out with.
 
I feel like Sony probably doesn't care that much about the "race" in the US. They are boatracing WW and realistically don't have as much price flexibility as MS does. Take the profit on the consoles you are still selling loads of and worry about dropping it if you see a drop in demand.

The US is quickly becoming MS's only market so they were obviously smart to double down on it this holiday.

this would be keeping the line that Sony has not reacted to anything MS has done since launch. going to keep their head down and focus on themselves
 

Jigorath

Banned
Wow. Microsoft is really aggressive with their pricing this gen.

Maybe too early, but seems it might look the same as last gen, only closer in the US than usual:

US: MSFT
EU: SNE
JP: NTDOY



Price-protection.

I don't see why WiiU will come out ahead in Japan with all the major 3rd party games PS4 is getting.
 
Wait, so they're going back down again? :/ #figureoutyourprice
Price-protection.
Is there such for end-consumers? How long does it extend?

Also a drop on both a per week basis and absolute basis from November, relatively rare historically, but I think it will probably become more common.

I'm glad I ended up lowering my prediction.
 

donny2112

Member
With that estimate, it also looks like December was "just" on par with November. I don't know how to take that.

Typical for Microsoft in the last few years?

360:
2010 - 35% increase in December
2011 - 2%
2012 - 11%
2013 - -1%

XB1:
2013 - 0% increase in December
2014 - ~0%

Edit:
PS3 dropped in Nov -> Dec in 2011-2013, and PS4 did last year (but due to shortages). PS4 should go up this year to break the trend, though.
 
Why would Sony drop the price? That company is bleeding money and the PS4 already sells great with margins that will only increase at 399$. They don't give a damn whether Microsoft "wins" as long as the continue to sell and make money. They'll drop when sales start to majorly slide.
 

Ty4on

Member
IF they hit around 1.6 million truly an incredible holiday performance to Xbone. Who would have known after how rough of a year it had how awesome of a performance it would close the end of they year out with.

1.6 million would be an increase of 70%.
 

Loris146

Member
close. it's 1.643 million.




november 2006 npd tracked sales from october 29th, 2006 through november 25th, 2006.

december 2006 npd tracked sales from november 26th, 2006 through december 30th, 2006.




and i'm not saying or implying anything about whether or not this xbox one calculation is accurate, so don't read into this post.

So both 4 weeks of tracking ?
 
Yeah, would be good for Sony to drop to 350$ in the near future.

March would be the perfect time, I think.

They just packed in TLOUR at $399, I don't see them making a move for a while now otherwise it looks kind of reactionary.

They'd probably be alright just adding The Order and Bloodborne (not in the same bundle obviously) to the offer at $399 if they wanted to adjust again.
 

donny2112

Member
So both 4 weeks of tracking ?

November and December do not change their # of tracking weeks year to year. January does every 6 years or so (from 4 to 5 to make up for non-even weeks in a year), but February through December are the same # of weeks every year.
 

Dante316

Member
Sony is going to price match in Fall 2015, they do not have to do it earlier. $350 during the next holiday season will be massive.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Typical for Microsoft in the last few years?

360:
2010 - 35% increase in December
2011 - 2%
2012 - 11%
2013 - -1%

XB1:
2013 - 0% increase in December
2014 - ~0%

Edit:
PS3 dropped in Nov -> Dec in 2011-2013, and PS4 did last year (but due to shortages). PS4 should go up this year to break the trend, though.

Didn't remember it happened on 360 as well in the past few years. Mmmh. Thanks, donny.

@theprodigy: shhh you /s
 
If PS4 is at 1 million, it would still be decent enough. Under 1 million in December, after selling around 830,000 units in November...eck.
Under 1 milliom for the market leader is bad. Xbox One really hurt PS4 sales if that happened.
Eh... that 830K November number was by no means a bad one for an early life system at $400.

The Xbox One was the market leader these last two months, they're selling largely to the same market of buyers. Particularly so early in the cycle.
 

ps3ud0

Member
close. it's 1.643 million.




november 2006 npd tracked sales from october 29th, 2006 through november 25th, 2006.

december 2006 npd tracked sales from november 26th, 2006 through december 30th, 2006.




and i'm not saying or implying anything about whether or not this xbox one calculation is accurate, so don't read into this post.
Ah so a 9 week period (Dec 2006 was a 5 week one)

1.643m/9 = 182.6k per week in that 2006 reporting period

182.6*1.5= 273.8k per week in 2014 reporting period

Can anyone confirm Nov and Dec 2014 was an 8 week preporting period? Im not that clued up

IGNORE ME- didnt realise NPD reporting periods were constant - red herring!

ps3ud0 8)
 
So how much ground did Sony lose in November and December? Not trying to be douchey, genuinely curious what the current gap is.
It's great to see them both do well though!
 
Ah so a 9 week period (Dec 2006 was a 5 week one)

1.643m/9 = 182.6k per week in that 2006 reporting period

182.6*1.5= 273.8k per week in 2014 reporting period

Can anyone confirm Nov and Dec 2014 was an 8 week preporting period? Im not that clued up - if it was XO sales in Nov and Dec 2014 were 2.191m

So Dec 2014 XO sales were 960.6k

ps3ud0 8)

9 week for 2014 as well.
 
Ah so a 9 week period (Dec 2006 was a 5 week one)

1.643m/9 = 182.6k per week in that 2006 reporting period

182.6*1.5= 273.8k per week in 2014 reporting period

Can anyone confirm Nov and Dec 2014 was an 8 week preporting period? Im not that clued up - if it was XO sales in Nov and Dec 2014 were 2.191m

So Dec 2014 XO sales were 960.6k

ps3ud0 8)

nov 2014 + dec 2014 was also a 9 week reporting period.

npd tries to stay as consistent as possible unless there's a leap year.
 

Welfare

Member
Ah so a 9 week period (Dec 2006 was a 5 week one)

1.643m/9 = 182.6k per week in that 2006 reporting period

182.6*1.5= 273.8k per week in 2014 reporting period

Can anyone confirm Nov and Dec 2014 was an 8 week preporting period? Im not that clued up - if it was XO sales in Nov and Dec 2014 were 2.191m

So Dec 2014 XO sales were 960.6k

ps3ud0 8)

9 weeks
 

Miles X

Member

Judging by LTD's 7.4 - 7.7m in US, it's hard to imagine PS4 did much above another 800k in December surely? US marketshare is around 40% and if they only did 4.1m WW over those 2 months that works out about 1.6m.

I guess US becomes more prominent? This is all just number crunching on my part.
 
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