Welfare
Member
My entire point is that I can't see that happening.
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June 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, July 11th
I think it was Layden that said. A lot of PS4 owners probably have a Switch right next to it. He said it was healthy co-existence. One doesn't impact the other.
Ahh, I remember all those threads about how Sony lacking holiday games will be their fall
Eh. I still think it's going to big business this Holiday. I think the reason for low sales now is because people are waiting on the X. We'll see soon enough.
Really curious for MS earnings tomorrow.
OdysseusVA
Banned
Wow
PS4 is a monster
PS4 is a monster
FinaruDensetsu
Member
The way I see it, if they can crack the PC nut, then software sales will grow much more, perhaps even more than some extra console hardware sales.
I think the biggest problem they need to solve is how to charge PC players for XBL. That's a potentially huge untapped resource.
Well I don't think we can say that for sure, but they seem to be trying at least. And come on Sony's streaming is a non-factor. Nobody knows or cares about PS Now.
MS is bringing out a new console, but I think the price tells you right there they don't really care too much about the performance of that one console in particular. It's more like "hey here's another piece of hardware you can play our games on, or you can get a PC and play our stuff there too."
DriftingSpirit
Member
I just think that price tag is going to keep it from really doing anything notable. I mean, it was always just going to be a premium option anyway but that price along with $250 base units and Switch....yeah. It is going to be tough to really explode and make up for the rest of the year. I think it will just have a decent launch, all things considered.
famfrit
Member
Wait, how good are the first four months of WiiU ?
Switch losing two months against old PS4 dont look good to me...
Yea!!!!! Actual public numbers!!!!! Woo-hoo!!!!!11!!1 (^o^)
NeoGAF Prediction Results - June 2017
Units
1. Opt1kon_ - 102,000
2. Jigorath - 109,000
3. Shin - 117,000
3. theprodigy - 117,000
5. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 127,000
5. allan-bh - 127,000
7. GAF_Agg - 127,900
8. CorporateClown - 135,000
8. archnemesis - 135,000
10. Tarrin - 137,000
10. sirronoh - 137,000
12. Anderson DL - 138,000
12. WillySJ3 - 138,000
12. mejin - 138,000
15. Kayant - 139,000
16. Primethius - 140,000
17. KillerMan91 - 142,000
18. Welfare - 143,000
18. donny2112 - 143,000
20. Elandyll - 145,000
20. noobie - 145,000
22. Kill3r7 - 147,000
23. Sangetsu-II - 148,000
23. Zok310 - 148,000
23. im_dany - 148,000
26. Hammer24 - 149,000
26. jayu26 - 149,000
28. Shock32 - 158,000
29. jjonez18 - 159,000
29. onemanasylum - 159,000
31. samar11 - 160,000
32. Fdkn - 162,000
32. pitseleh - 162,000
34. Sterok - 164,000
35. kyser73 - 165,000
36. 1993dan1 - 169,000
37. Gaspard - 170,000
37. Zedark - 170,000
37. robo - 170,000
40. hanspampel - 174,000
41. Shizza - 178,000
42. ethomaz - 180,000
43. Rymuth - 185,000
43. jroc74 - 185,000
45. noshten - 188,000
45. slavesnyder - 188,000
47. NateDrake - 197,000
47. astrogamer - 197,000
49. Darth Smurf X - 200,000
50. freefornow - 205,000
51. Polygonal_Sprite - 222,000
52. Blam - 229,000
53. Stanng243 - 235,000
54. BlackBuzzard - 236,000
55. Pachter - 245,000
56. Bitch Pudding - 264,000
Points
Congratulations, Opt1kon_!
NeoGAF Prediction Results - June 2017
Units
1. Opt1kon_ - 102,000
2. Jigorath - 109,000
3. Shin - 117,000
3. theprodigy - 117,000
5. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 127,000
5. allan-bh - 127,000
7. GAF_Agg - 127,900
8. CorporateClown - 135,000
8. archnemesis - 135,000
10. Tarrin - 137,000
10. sirronoh - 137,000
12. Anderson DL - 138,000
12. WillySJ3 - 138,000
12. mejin - 138,000
15. Kayant - 139,000
16. Primethius - 140,000
17. KillerMan91 - 142,000
18. Welfare - 143,000
18. donny2112 - 143,000
20. Elandyll - 145,000
20. noobie - 145,000
22. Kill3r7 - 147,000
23. Sangetsu-II - 148,000
23. Zok310 - 148,000
23. im_dany - 148,000
26. Hammer24 - 149,000
26. jayu26 - 149,000
28. Shock32 - 158,000
29. jjonez18 - 159,000
29. onemanasylum - 159,000
31. samar11 - 160,000
32. Fdkn - 162,000
32. pitseleh - 162,000
34. Sterok - 164,000
35. kyser73 - 165,000
36. 1993dan1 - 169,000
37. Gaspard - 170,000
37. Zedark - 170,000
37. robo - 170,000
40. hanspampel - 174,000
41. Shizza - 178,000
42. ethomaz - 180,000
43. Rymuth - 185,000
43. jroc74 - 185,000
45. noshten - 188,000
45. slavesnyder - 188,000
47. NateDrake - 197,000
47. astrogamer - 197,000
49. Darth Smurf X - 200,000
50. freefornow - 205,000
51. Polygonal_Sprite - 222,000
52. Blam - 229,000
53. Stanng243 - 235,000
54. BlackBuzzard - 236,000
55. Pachter - 245,000
56. Bitch Pudding - 264,000
Points
Code:
June 2017 Overall 2017 Top (5/6)
01. Opt1kon_ 117.03 Primethius 515.00
02. Jigorath 112.48 noobie 495.52
03. allan-bh 105.36 ethomaz 494.33
04. Shin 104.34 BlackBuzzard 487.17
05. theprodigy 104.34 allan-bh 483.90
06. Trust me, I'm a PhD 103.72 Trust me, I'm a PhD 483.17
07. archnemesis 100.60 Kayant 481.06
08. CorporateClown 100.41 jayu26 479.88
09. sirronoh 98.82 theprodigy 479.65
10. Anderson DL 97.27 CorporateClown 478.95
11. mejin 97.27 Fdkn 477.83
12. WillySJ3 96.93 Sterok 477.68
13. donny2112 96.50 Sangetsu-II 476.85
14. KillerMan91 96.05 donny2112 476.54
15. Primethius 95.99 archnemesis 473.32
16. Tarrin 95.89 Welfare 472.70
17. Sangetsu-II 95.72 mejin 472.63
18. Kayant 95.54 jroc74 472.46
19. Elandyll 94.88 Hammer24 472.03
20. jayu26 94.66 kyser73 462.87
21. Sterok 94.34 Elandyll 462.11
22. Shock32 94.20 pitseleh 461.65
23. onemanasylum 93.98 freefornow 458.21
24. pitseleh 93.98 Shizza 457.61
25. noobie 93.84 jjonez18 453.25
26. kyser73 93.77 Opt1kon_ 452.74
27. 1993dan1 93.57 Darth Smurf X 451.61
28. Welfare 92.91 KillerMan91 449.93
29. jjonez18 92.82 Rymuth 449.68
30. samar11 92.57 robo 449.50
31. im_dany 92.48 1993dan1 443.82
32. Zok310 92.48 noshten 442.80
33. Hammer24 92.43 Stanng243 440.89
34. Kill3r7 92.37 Kill3r7 435.86
35. Zedark 91.41 Bitch Pudding 434.51
36. jroc74 91.03 astrogamer 431.63
37. Gaspard 90.39 Pachter 430.08
38. ethomaz 90.18 slavesnyder 425.17
39. Shizza 90.17 Cow Goes Moo 415.53
40. robo 89.68 sirronoh 364.92
41. hanspampel 89.55 vivekTO 361.39
42. Rymuth 89.09 Shock32 361.09
43. freefornow 88.65 Chobel 351.85
44. Fdkn 88.65 Zedark 350.11
45. Darth Smurf X 87.13 skedar897 333.78
46. astrogamer 86.35 Raylan 304.08
47. slavesnyder 86.34 Jigorath 287.86
48. Pachter 82.19 Ravage_Hydra 285.10
49. BlackBuzzard 81.66 Bruno MB 279.33
50. Stanng243 80.47 hanspampel 277.06Congratulations, Opt1kon_!
El-Pistolero
Member
The Xbox One is aimed primarily towards the tech-oriented existing user-base, that much is certain. The average Joe will be looking at the shelves and seeing two consoles, one offered for $500, the second one for $200 to $249 during the Holidays, both running the same acclaimed 3rd party games...Guess which one 90% of the buyers will opt for...
Humdinger
Member
Right. They also seem to fall within the range of the estimates, which adds further credibility. Plus, the lack of any disputing by any insiders.
Welfare
Member
Congratulations, Opt1kon_!
Switch First 4 Months (March 2017 - June 2017): 1,572,062
3DS First 4 Months (March 2011 - June 2011): 832,000
3DS First 8 Months (March 2011 - October 2011): 1,685,000
Wii U First 4 Months (November 2012 - February 2013): 1,008,000
Wii U First 13 Months (November 2012 - November 2013): 1,615,000
Wii First 4 Months (November 2006 - February 2007): 1,851,000
DS First 4 Months (November 2004 - February 2005): 1,516,000
Switch is severely supply constrained, only having just above 40K a week available in May and June.
Switch First 4 Months (March 2017 - June 2017): 1,572,062
3DS First 4 Months (March 2011 - June 2011): 832,000
3DS First 8 Months (March 2011 - October 2011): 1,685,000
Wii U First 4 Months (November 2012 - February 2013): 1,008,000
Wii U First 13 Months (November 2012 - November 2013): 1,615,000
Wii First 4 Months (November 2006 - February 2007): 1,851,000
DS First 4 Months (November 2004 - February 2005): 1,516,000
Switch is severely supply constrained, only having just above 40K a week available in May and June.
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
Switch's success is definitely hurting Xbone. Beating PS4 was always a pipe dream but now even second place isn't guaranteed and Xbox is now fighting against two successful consoles. They are in a very bad spot and 1X won't change their fortunes since it caters to a niche enthusiast crowd.
I never underestimate Xbox users spending money on nice things. We'll see.
Humdinger
Member
Why would Switch be hurting Xbox sales but not PS4 sales? I'm genuinely asking, not trying to be contentious.
I recall Layden saying PS4 sales weren't being impacted by Switch sales. Now maybe that was just talk. But assuming he is right, why would Switch have a negative impact on Xbox but not PS4?
Primethius
Banned
Damn, only #15 for the month. Think my short-lived run at #1 for the year will come to a screeching halt next month.
Congrats Opt1kon_!
If Switch sales are impacting XB1, it will likely be due to the perception of both the Switch and XB1 as secondary consoles to the primary PS4, with consumers opting for the Switch rather than the XB1.
Congrats Opt1kon_!
If Switch sales are impacting XB1, it will likely be due to the perception of both the Switch and XB1 as secondary consoles to the primary PS4, with consumers opting for the Switch rather than the XB1.
FinaruDensetsu
Member
I don't think XBOX will sell huge numbers due to the $500 price point, but at the same time the suggestion that anyone actually in the market for an XBOX would consider a Switch as an alternative is laughable.
Yeah, the Switch thing is bizarre. I mean did Wii hurt either Sony or MS? I don't think so.
Switch is suffering from low supply right now almost everywhere except Australia and some EU countries.
Same as the Wii. The Wii was hard to find for two years. If I remember right?
CheapyD will be crushed.
He's been (the only person on the internet?) trying to maintain that the Switch wasn't selling much better than the WiiU.
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
Due to MS' lack of first party output the Xbox and PS4 virtually share the same library in 3rd party games. Making the PS4 have a reasonable advantage in total library when both 1st party and 3rd party are considered.
Gamers who are interested in the Switch for Nintendo's games don't want to abandon the big 3rd party games like COD and GTA and when faced with the decision of picking a PS4 or an Xbone the Ps4's better 1st party offering makes such decision easier.
You're more likely to see PS4 owners who also happen to have the Switch as their side console than Xbox gamers with Switch's for this reason. It's really tough position for MS and the only way they can fix this is to fix their 1st party problem.
So who did the Wii hurt? Xbox or Sony because I'm not seeing it either, just like I don't see it here.
I think you are doing mental gymnastics.
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
Neither. People didn't have to make such decisions last gen because Xbox was relatively strong with 1st party and paying to play online was still only an Xbox thing since PSN was free. Now with people owning vast libraries of digital games and having to pay to play online, a lot of people don't find owning multiple consoles as attractive as it was last gen. People prefer to stick to one console for most of their 1st party and third party gaming. That console seems to be the PS4 at this point in time, leaving Xbox and Switch as the secondary console. Due to similarity in libraries between PS4 and X1, Switch seems to be more attractive to the masses as a secondary console.
Humdinger
Member
Well, I understand that if faced with a choice of PS4 vs. Xbox as their other console (aside from a Switch), people are more likely to choose a PS4. That's true across the board -- people are more likely to choose PS4, 2 to 1.
But that would mean Switch sales are hurting PS4 sales. Just not as much as they're hurting Xbox sales. Maybe half as much.
My question, though, was predicated on the idea that Switch sales weren't hurting PS4, but they were hurting Xbox. I couldn't see why that would be.
Hellsing321
Member
Little Monser;243936124 said:
🤔 Is 🤔 it 🤔 Really 🤔 NPD 🤔 if 🤔 it 🤔 doesn't 🤔 have 🤔 ARMS?
No one said the PS4 isn't hurting Xbox sales. Being the main competitor, it's been hurting their sales for 4 years.
The original question was talking recent history. The effect of PS4 is assumed at this point. Another way to phrase it would be "Is the Switch additionally hurting Xbox sales "?
My personal opinion is that I'm not sure yet of Switch's impact. I don't think it is hurting MS. The xbox just isn't very attractive at the moment.
ARMS Saga is here.
Deputy Moonman
Member
I don't think anything changes personally. It comes down to whether you're a fan of xbox exclusives versus Playstation exclusives. After that the switch is the clear 2nd console of choice for both parties. This isn't new and it won't be different this fourth quarter. So again I don't think the switch changes anything. Personally I'm not interested in most sony offerings. Doesn't matter that there are a lot more games that im not interested in... I'm still not interested in playing them. As such Im sticking toward an xbox/switch combo. And it still boggles my mind that I still have to listen to people continue to use the xbox is only gear/halo/Forza narrative when it isn't lol. Whatever.
Shin
Banned
I did well for my very first prediction!, also thanks a lot Donny for putting in the work with these threads, much appreciated and keep it up!
Even if it's very premature it's safe to say that PS4 will enter the "hall of fame" and most likely end up being the 2nd best console sold (excluding handhelds).
When consoles were supposed to be dying and all that it is rather impressive by itself how this might play out, PlayStation played their cards right.
I'm saying maybe and might because nothing is certain until it actually happens, though even if there is a drop off in 2018/2019 it should still put it over 100m.
Even if it's very premature it's safe to say that PS4 will enter the "hall of fame" and most likely end up being the 2nd best console sold (excluding handhelds).
When consoles were supposed to be dying and all that it is rather impressive by itself how this might play out, PlayStation played their cards right.
I'm saying maybe and might because nothing is certain until it actually happens, though even if there is a drop off in 2018/2019 it should still put it over 100m.
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
I see what you mean. I don't agree with Layden in his assessment. I think Switch's success definitely impacts PS4's sales although it seems the impact is almost negligible looking at this month's NPD. It's gonna be tough to gauge just how much sales the Switch is taking from both the Xbox and PS4 but if I was to bet money on it I'd say the Xbox is definitely being impacted more due to the reasons I mentioned.
I think it's based on the thinking that the Switch, due to lacking third party offerings and coming out so late in the gen, is going to be a secondary console for a majority of people.
If we assume this is correct, then the more attractive the Switch is the less likely PS4 owners are going to pick up an Xbox as a secondary console instead of a Switch.
Technically this is true the other way around as well (i.e. the less likely Xbox owners are going to pick up a PS4 as a secondary console over a Switch), but seeing as there are less Xbox owners to begin with this point is less relevant.
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
I understand your point of view and I'm not trying to discuss which console is better from personal viewpoints. I know all too well that all this is subjective and at the end of the day it's all a matter of preference. I'm speaking in terms of the general consumer base and how most people in the market to buy a new secondary console might view things.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
lol, I mean, this is obviously kind of disingenuous considering the Switch is still supply constrained (can't buy one online for less than a $100 premium on MSRP) and a new, lower-priced PS4 SKU launched in June. But yes, great month for the PS4, I just don't think you can draw the conclusion you drew from these numbers.
These numbers are not too surprising. It was always about games, price, and social (i.e., friends) and the PS4 has a significant advantage over Xbox in each of these categories (except price, which it is typically tied in).
When PS4 is nearly 2 to 1 against Xbox in Microsoft's primary market for the first half of year 4, the race for market leader this gen is effectively over, if that wasn't clear already.
Now that's not to say it's all doom and gloom for Xbox, they can still follow their emerging strategy of generating higher revenue per user by satisfying their existing base. There are certainly opportunities there and if they're generating profits, that's what matters most at the end of the day. (Though it's always nice to increase the number of users they can potentially monetize.)
On the subject of Xbox One X turning things around for Microsoft relative to PS4, I'm highly skeptical of that. As I mentioned, it's about games, price, and social, with power being much less relevant to the average consumer. The vast majority of Xbox One X buyers will be people who already own an Xbox One console, not new users -- especially at (a) $500, (b) during the holidays, and (c) playing the exact same games the other, twice as cheap Xbox One can play.
Once that initial wave settles down come January, Xbox will start to look like they have so far this year, perhaps with a slight sustained bump, but still poor relative to PS4 and quite possibly the Switch as well (assuming stock issues can be resolved). Power is not going to help them keep up with PS4, particularly when the first half of 2018 is looking somewhat similar to 2017 on the games front.
I'll simply re-post what I shared earlier in the thread:
Again, that does not mean Xbox is doomed or anything close to that. Please do not misunderstand me. Microsoft is going to make a shit ton of money this holiday season, as they always do. They need to focus on keeping their existing base happy and increasing revenue per user. That's a win that they can use to sustain themselves until the next gen where they have a chance to figure things out.
On another note, the numbers do make me wonder about another suspicion I've had about the Xbox One S. The 4 month bump last fall was interesting but I had a feeling that was due, at least in part, to existing users upgrading from the OG system to the S. At the time, I don't remember anyone suggesting that because the conventional thinking was that existing users would not upgrade to the S knowing Scorpio was coming a year later. However, Xbox has a very loyal core userbase that's also affluent so I just wonder if at least part of the Xbox success last fall was due to existing owners upgrading to the S (and they did this knowing Scorpio was coming), and not simply because the S made the Xbox One a more attractive product to new users (though I'm certain that happened too).
Anywho, that's my two cents for now.
When PS4 is nearly 2 to 1 against Xbox in Microsoft's primary market for the first half of year 4, the race for market leader this gen is effectively over, if that wasn't clear already.
Now that's not to say it's all doom and gloom for Xbox, they can still follow their emerging strategy of generating higher revenue per user by satisfying their existing base. There are certainly opportunities there and if they're generating profits, that's what matters most at the end of the day. (Though it's always nice to increase the number of users they can potentially monetize.)
On the subject of Xbox One X turning things around for Microsoft relative to PS4, I'm highly skeptical of that. As I mentioned, it's about games, price, and social, with power being much less relevant to the average consumer. The vast majority of Xbox One X buyers will be people who already own an Xbox One console, not new users -- especially at (a) $500, (b) during the holidays, and (c) playing the exact same games the other, twice as cheap Xbox One can play.
Once that initial wave settles down come January, Xbox will start to look like they have so far this year, perhaps with a slight sustained bump, but still poor relative to PS4 and quite possibly the Switch as well (assuming stock issues can be resolved). Power is not going to help them keep up with PS4, particularly when the first half of 2018 is looking somewhat similar to 2017 on the games front.
I'll simply re-post what I shared earlier in the thread:
Again, that does not mean Xbox is doomed or anything close to that. Please do not misunderstand me. Microsoft is going to make a shit ton of money this holiday season, as they always do. They need to focus on keeping their existing base happy and increasing revenue per user. That's a win that they can use to sustain themselves until the next gen where they have a chance to figure things out.
On another note, the numbers do make me wonder about another suspicion I've had about the Xbox One S. The 4 month bump last fall was interesting but I had a feeling that was due, at least in part, to existing users upgrading from the OG system to the S. At the time, I don't remember anyone suggesting that because the conventional thinking was that existing users would not upgrade to the S knowing Scorpio was coming a year later. However, Xbox has a very loyal core userbase that's also affluent so I just wonder if at least part of the Xbox success last fall was due to existing owners upgrading to the S (and they did this knowing Scorpio was coming), and not simply because the S made the Xbox One a more attractive product to new users (though I'm certain that happened too).
Anywho, that's my two cents for now.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I'd imagine that there are people who only game enough to justify one console and would "settle" for a PS4/XB1 if the option of owning a Switch didn't exist. So I'm sure the Switch impacts the potential sales of both, but isn't terribly significant because the amount of people who fit under this umbrella is probably around the number of people who owned a Wii U (13 million). So in this scenario, both MS and Sony can probably expect to miss out on 5-8 million sales LTD thanks to the Switch's existence.
That's just some hypotheticals and napkin math, though.
MisterR
Member
They are not close to conquering the pc market.
Of course they care. It's incredibly important to them. Don't confuse their PR talk with reality.
The Switch's performance for the rest of the year is much more interesting and important than the XBOne X. Its very hard to read how much being supply-constrained means when the quantities are low. Anecdotally its becoming more readily available, so Splatoons timing couldn't be better. But what happens when the systems shipments rivals the Wii that its often compared to? That system was sold out for a couple years and was selling a lot more month to month.
Wii suffered from low supply compared to demand. Compared to other consoles/history, it was historically high shipment numbers, though. Switch is suffering due to demand, too, but its raw shipment numbers are not that big overall.
unknownstranger
Member
I have trouble thinking Xbox One X will be a massive seller this holiday, mainly because of the price. I'm guessing that for November/Black Friday, Sony will have a $349 PS Pro Bundle with Horizon: Zero Dawn and Destiny 2, which I think could outsell Xbox One X.
Unknown?
Member
Considering how they broke their silence when the S sold better for a few months and wouldn't stop sounding so pathetic, yes.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I was thinking the same thing. Bundle Horizon with all of the major third party titles (Destiny 2, CoD, Battlefront 2) and cut the price to $350 for extra oomph. There should be some sort of Crash/Ratchet and Clank/etc... type bundle and a Horizon/OG PS4 bundle for $250. $199 for Black Friday and two weeks in December. CoD/OG PS4 as main SKU following the holidays leading into newer releases like God of War.
Shin
Banned
Holidays seem to hold up and are rather close I believe for both companies, it's all the other months were Xbox sales is lagging behind.
To further expand upon not confusing PR talk with reality. Microsoft not caring about hardware numbers is very much The Fox and the Grapes.
Having a more engaging (read: spends more money) audience is nice, but if you're not expanding your hardware base you have to worry about the audience shrinking. It is looking like the XB1 will not reach the same numbers as the 360 and the 360 had help with Sony's hubris.
Will the new xbox turn it around? At $500, I'm going with no. A temporary increase from new users and those replacing a current XB1 is probably the best they can hope for.
Just in case anyone is taking this as a Xbox is doomed post; it isn't, but just because Microsoft has a large war chest does not mean it is open to the xbox division.
1st Course
Member
lol wat
AcademicSaucer
Member
Man, Nintendo is really fucking this one up
ThisIsMyDogKyle
Banned
whoa beating the DS, which also had a holiday launch.
Welfare
Member
DS started slow and PSP launched March 2005. It got a bump after the $20 price cut in August 2005 but DS didn't really get big until the $129 DS Lite in June 2006. With that, the system went from a slow and tepid sales pace to instant hit explosion.
The holiday launch of DS was great though, so Switch production staying ahead of it is a good sign. I'd bet that Switch could be closer to Wii if supply was much more available.
Papacheeks
Banned
I wouldn't say they are fucking it up. But they made some bizarre decisions when launching switch. Mainly in doing a global launch and having production issues during a non holiday.
They could have planned better instead of playing it too safe. I mean the switch launched with like 5 games.
Had barebones connectivity, and no third party functionality out side of the unit itself.
But it was vastly better than Wii U and seems to be a hit non the less.