These numbers are not too surprising. It was always about games, price, and social (i.e., friends) and the PS4 has a significant advantage over Xbox in each of these categories (except price, which it is typically tied in).
When PS4 is nearly 2 to 1 against Xbox in Microsoft's primary market for the first half of year 4, the race for market leader this gen is effectively over, if that wasn't clear already.
Now that's not to say it's all doom and gloom for Xbox, they can still follow their emerging strategy of generating higher revenue per user by satisfying their existing base. There are certainly opportunities there and if they're generating profits, that's what matters most at the end of the day. (Though it's always nice to increase the number of users they can potentially monetize.)
On the subject of Xbox One X turning things around for Microsoft relative to PS4, I'm highly skeptical of that. As I mentioned, it's about games, price, and social, with power being much less relevant to the average consumer. The vast majority of Xbox One X buyers will be people who already own an Xbox One console, not new users -- especially at (a) $500, (b) during the holidays, and (c) playing the exact same games the other, twice as cheap Xbox One can play.
Once that initial wave settles down come January, Xbox will start to look like they have so far this year, perhaps with a slight sustained bump, but still poor relative to PS4 and quite possibly the Switch as well (assuming stock issues can be resolved). Power is not going to help them keep up with PS4, particularly when the first half of 2018 is looking somewhat similar to 2017 on the games front.
I'll simply re-post what I shared earlier in the thread:
Thank you Abdiel!
Not surprised by the bolded at all. We're in the 4th calendar year of PS4 and Xbox. For the average consumer just now looking to purchase an Xbox One, a consumer who didn't purchase an Xbox One for any of the notable releases this year or in any of the prior years, if they're just now deciding to purchase an Xbox One, why wait for several months to pay $250 to $300 more for an Xbox One that plays the same games they can play now?
No, Xbox One sales between now and November, as they have been throughout 2017, will be low due to lack of compelling content, not because there's a wave of new customers waiting to purchase the high-end model. The consumers in the market for the Xbox One X will largely be existing Xbox One owners.
Again,
that does not mean Xbox is doomed or anything close to that. Please do not misunderstand me. Microsoft is going to make a shit ton of money this holiday season, as they always do. They need to focus on keeping their existing base happy and increasing revenue per user. That's a win that they can use to sustain themselves until the next gen where they have a chance to figure things out.
On another note, the numbers do make me wonder about another suspicion I've had about the Xbox One S. The 4 month bump last fall was interesting but I had a feeling that was due, at least in part, to existing users upgrading from the OG system to the S. At the time, I don't remember anyone suggesting that because the conventional thinking was that existing users would not upgrade to the S knowing Scorpio was coming a year later. However, Xbox has a very loyal core userbase that's also affluent so I just wonder if at least part of the Xbox success last fall was due to existing owners upgrading to the S (and they did this knowing Scorpio was coming), and not simply because the S made the Xbox One a more attractive product to new users (though I'm certain that happened too).
Anywho, that's my two cents for now.