Gotcha but that is best case and that puts it around 10.1 million. But no other region can justify such an increase in sales. Japan is not even 5k. China may be 50kIt doesn't work like that. 1.3 mil is the 60%, so 40% will be 0.86 mil.
Gotcha but that is best case and that puts it around 10.1 million. But no other region can justify such an increase in sales. Japan is not even 5k. China may be 50kIt doesn't work like that. 1.3 mil is the 60%, so 40% will be 0.86 mil.
It doesn't work like that. 1.3 mil is the 60%, so 40% will be 0.86 mil.
How do you buy a console and only realize after the fact that you dont want to play any games on it!?
Exactly. I was providing the best case scenario and even then it's slightly over 10m by only 100k. This would also explain why the sale was reinstated in America onlyWouldn't the 60/40 split be closer to 70/30 because of the the US only, temporary sale and bundles for the holidays? the 60/40 split I highly doubt would apply considering its success in the US during the holidays.
We are pleased with the full-year performance of the semi-custom business and the strong sell-through reported by our customers. Nearly 30 million Sony and Microsoft consoles have now shipped.
Let me just clarify. In terms of the unit shipments, those are unit shipments from our customers to end users, and most of that is publicly available data from what Sony and Microsoft have published.
So relative to historical, I think most people will say that historically, the game console shipments in this generation are higher than in the previous generation. And you can come up with all kinds of reasons for that; some of that is the price points that they've chosen. I think that certainly helped the holiday season. Some of that is its software titles that are available at a given point in time.
I think the main thing is as we look at any holiday season, we want to make sure that there's not a lot of inventory that's sitting with our customers, and we see that that's fairly well balanced. So that gives us confidence as you go into 2015 and you see new titles that are launched, and those come out, that it should be a fairly normal market.
I just bought mine today and I totally regret it. Realized I didn't want to buy any games for it... yet... please blood borne redeem my purchase.
Oh and for anyone interested.
Here is what Lisa Su from AMD said in regards to the 30 million number.
It's obvious that "customer" is referring to Sony and Microsoft. Now unit shipments to end users is what I want clarified. Does that mean unit shipments to end users, consumers. Or does that mean unit shipments to end users, retailers.
Well all we know is nearly 30m. I might be inclined to believe that when they say nearly 30m they are talking sold through to end users here rather than shipped.
"Nearly 30 million" could feasibly mean as little as 29 million (or even less?), as was discussed earlier, so not quite.I think it would be shipped and not sold to consumers. That would mean the Xbox One sold 11.5m
"Nearly 30 million" could feasibly mean as little as 29 million, as was discussed earlier, so not quite.
I think it would be shipped and not sold to consumers. That would mean the Xbox One sold 11.5m
"Nearly 30 million" could feasibly mean as little as 29 million (or even less?), as was discussed earlier, so not quite.
More like ~50%
Not for the One; it has not been. It is more heavily relying on the US so far than the 360 had been, as far as I know...
Well, 11.5M would mean Sony had 100% sell through. Can we put that one in the "possible, but not bloody likely" category? 11M would give Sony only 500k unsold, which sounds quite low. Last Christmas, Sony were at 300k, but got there through airlifting, and they were in comparatively few markets at the time, and they were hard to find even in the US. Now the channel is a good bit wider, and we didn't hear anything about airlifts or launch-like shortages. 19M shipped for Sony seems fairly unlikely. I think we'd have heard more about shortages if they were much under 750k unsold; remember, we're talking worldwide-wide channels here. Now we're getting down in to the 10.5M-10.75M range for MS. If we give them the top end of that, that puts both at 750k unsold, and given retail musings, it seems unlikely they're sitting on an equal number of units.Very hard question.
Based on the 10m number from November, and knowing that they potentially sold in that many by December (according to Satya) I would say that the sold in number could be close to around ~11m. Either higher or lower, but certainly not more than 11.5m and not less than 10.5m.
Maybe they get paid for every unit shipped to retail. Why would they tell their shareholders 30M units of their product are in the hands of retail if they actually had no idea? I gave you "nearly means equal to," but c'mon, son.Unfortunately I don't think we'll ever know 100%. AMD gives a good indication of around ~30m combined between PS4/X1. But I do have to wonder how exactly they worked that out as the data would have come from Microsoft and Sony themselves, as even though AMD supply the chips they don't ship out the units.
lol So you made a prediction, and when AMD come by and say, "Spot on, Zhuge," you say, "Hmm, then it's probably actually a bit higher than 30M"?Thankfully AMD are able to provide a good indication though. You probably won't believe me but I myself, over a year ago now, calculated and predicted that shipments would reach 29.7m cumulative units between X1 and PS4. Now I think it's higher slightly.
Oh and for anyone interested.
Here is what Lisa Su from AMD said in regards to the 30 million number.
It's obvious that "customer" is referring to Sony and Microsoft. Now unit shipments to end users is what I want clarified. Does that mean unit shipments to end users, consumers. Or does that mean unit shipments to end users, retailers.
Well all we know is nearly 30m. I might be inclined to believe that when they say nearly 30m they are talking sold through to end users here rather than shipped to retailers.
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Well, 11.5M would mean Sony had 100% sell through. Can we put that one in the "possible, but not bloody likely" category? 11M would give Sony only 500k unsold, which sounds quite low. Last Christmas, Sony were at 300k, but got there through airlifting, and they were in comparatively few markets at the time, and they were hard to find even in the US. Now the channel is a good bit wider, and we didn't hear anything about airlifts or launch-like shortages. 19M shipped for Sony seems fairly unlikely. I think we'd have heard more about shortages if they were much under 750k unsold; remember, we're talking worldwide-wide channels here. Now we're getting down in to the 10.5M-10.75M range for MS. If we give them the top end of that, that puts both at 750k unsold, and given retail musings, it seems unlikely they're sitting on an equal number of units.
Do you see where I'm coming from?
Maybe they get paid for every unit shipped to retail. Why would they tell their shareholders 30M units of their product are in the hands of retail if they actually had no idea? I gave you "nearly means equal to," but c'mon, son.
lol So you made a prediction, and when AMD come by and say, "Spot on, Zhuge," you say, "Hmm, then it's probably actually a bit higher than 30M"?
determining the number of game consoles produced. Console Sell-through or Shipped makes no difference to AMD. This is a quirk of the Just In Time system and we got the previous generation of Japanese car makers to thank, for having this indirect way to measure PS4/XB1 production volume.
Why would you say that? You stood to gain everything. You've just shown everyone our hand now. I hope you're satisfied.I care so much about I don't even have one.
You have to be more creative.
Now, I got your back!
I guess our disagreement stem from the idea that I am not sure why AMD would ever be told of the actual detailed Console sales numbers from Sony or Microsoft. As a parts suppler, sure they would be happy to hear that their product has a market, but it doesn't seem to be directly relevant to AMD's business.Disagree 100%.
If we go by number of consoles produced or number of SOC's manufactured then that number will be much much higher than 30m. I work for a telecommunications company and know exactly how many additional units can be produced or attempted to be produced compared to the actual number sold to retail/consumers.
AMD are making it very clear in the statement above that they are using "customer numbers shipped to end users". So they are talking about the number MS and Sony are reporting as sold. Now whether end users is retail or consumer is another question. But you have to remember that produced and sold is miles apart.
It won't be, but you can bet your ass that bloodborne will.
Yeah, I didn't see Lisa Shu's statement until after I posted, and it actually has me all kinds of confused. lol Was that the original statement, or a clarification?My post above does question exactly how AMD worked out the 30m number as it does seem to suggest that AMD measured this on shipments to end users from their Sony and MS using some public and some non public data. So my question is whether end users is retailers or whether end users is consumes. Because that will really change things if nearly 30m means sold in or sold through.
I'm not sure that a number "mostly based on publicly available info" is going to be particularly useful to us. I'm not sure why they thought it would be useful to their shareholders either.
"Nearly 30 million" could feasibly mean as little as 29 million (or even less?), as was discussed earlier, so not quite.
Oh and for anyone interested.
Here is what Lisa Su from AMD said in regards to the 30 million number.
It's obvious that "customer" is referring to Sony and Microsoft. Now unit shipments to end users is what I want clarified. Does that mean unit shipments to end users, consumers. Or does that mean unit shipments to end users, retailers.
Well all we know is nearly 30m. I might be inclined to believe that when they say nearly 30m they are talking sold through to end users here rather than shipped to retailers.
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
I guess our disagreement stem from the idea that I am not sure why AMD would ever be told of the actual detailed Console sales numbers from Sony or Microsoft. As a parts suppler, sure they would be happy to hear that their product has a market, but it doesn't seem to be directly relevant to AMD's business.
My assumption is that AMD obtained the 30million number from the actual hardware component quantities they sold to Sony and Microsoft, and not from what the respective companies told AMD afterwards.
Of course if that isn't true, then I would be wrong.
Yeah, I didn't see Lisa Shu's statement until after I posted, and it actually has me all kinds of confused. lol Was that the original statement, or a clarification?
First she says shipped, which would normally be sold in for Sony and MS. Then she "clarifies" by saying that shipped actually means to end users, which would seem to imply sold through. Then she says, "most of that" is from publicly available data published by MS and Sony, but the last sold-through figure we got from MS was 3M at the end of 2013. So it almost sounds like they just took Sony's "18.5M sold through" and Microsoft's "getting close to 10M shipped," and said, "Well, that's pretty close to 30M," and "most of that" was the 18.5M sold through by Sony. =/
I'm not sure that a number "mostly based on publicly available info" is going to be particularly useful to us. I'm not sure why they thought it would be useful to their shareholders either.
Let me confuse you all more. Most of you have underestimated the PS4 shipment figure for the last quarter.
Xbox One is also probably around 14 million thanks to my efforts.
I just bought mine today and I totally regret it. Realized I didn't want to buy any games for it... yet... please blood borne redeem my purchase.
It won't be, but you can bet your ass that bloodborne will.
I'll break it down.Do you represent 1% of the population of China?
I'll break it down.
I'll use this thread as an example. I've posted 9 times in this thread. This thread has 698,320 views. This means that people have potentially seen my request to consider purchasing an Xbox One 6,284,880 times. Now just because you've seen my request doesn't mean you're going to oblige, and just because you oblige to consider doesn't mean you're going to buy it.
But if there's a 25% chance of you obliging my consideration, and those odds are increased to 50% when you see my avatar with the undeniable Lincoln Osiris, and when you decide to oblige my request of consideration, there's only a 50% chance you'll actually buy something since you're not 100% decided, but as it's an Xbox One and everyone loves green due all the environmental advocacy in the world today, the odds of you purchasing once obliging me increase to 80%. So when you factor in the 80% likelihood of purchasing something, and the 75% chance of you actually going through me to Amazon, and the 100% chance of someone purchasing something from Amazon, even if 25% decide to purchase (which is impossible as you can understand by following my math so far), that'd mean roughly one million consoles from this thread alone.
Now think, even if I've only posted 50 times in Gaming since October, what does this mean for Xbox One's success?
Exactly.
Bloodborne, a system seller? Hmmmm. The Souls games never were system sellers, any reason to think bloodborne would be?
Bloodborne, a system seller? Hmmmm. The Souls games never were system sellers, any reason to think bloodborne would be?
Exactly.
Like I said, I dunno. The whole thing sounds kinda sketchy. It really sounds like she just said "18.5M + 10M = nearly 30M." I don't know where she got the idea this was all sold through, because the last sell-through figure we got from MS was 3M. Maybe MS gave AMD the scoop and told them their sell-through is 11,462,347, but if that were the case, wouldn't they be getting the scoop from Sony as well? And if they have the numbers direct from Sony and MS, then why say the nearly-30M-shipped-to-end-users figure is mostly based on publicly available data? None of it really makes much sense.So yeh, thoughts?
I'll break it down.
I'll use this thread as an example. I've posted 9 times in this thread. This thread has 698,320 views. This means that people have potentially seen my request to consider purchasing an Xbox One 6,284,880 times. Now just because you've seen my request doesn't mean you're going to oblige, and just because you oblige to consider doesn't mean you're going to buy it.
But if there's a 25% chance of you obliging my consideration, and those odds are increased to 50% when you see my avatar with the undeniable Lincoln Osiris, and when you decide to oblige my request of consideration, there's only a 50% chance you'll actually buy something since you're not 100% decided, but as it's an Xbox One and everyone loves green due all the environmental advocacy in the world today, the odds of you purchasing once obliging me increase to 80%. So when you factor in the 80% likelihood of purchasing something, and the 75% chance of you actually going through me to Amazon, and the 100% chance of someone purchasing something from Amazon, even if 25% decide to purchase (which is impossible as you can understand by following my math so far), that'd mean roughly one million consoles from this thread alone.
Now think, even if I've only posted 50 times in Gaming since October, what does this mean for Xbox One's success?
Exactly.
Like I said, I dunno. The whole thing sounds kinda sketchy. It really sounds like she just said "18.5M + 10M = nearly 30M." I don't know where she got the idea this was all sold through, because the last sell-through figure we got from MS was 3M. Maybe MS gave AMD the scoop and told them their sell-through is 11,462,347, but if that were the case, wouldn't they be getting the scoop from Sony as well? And if they have the numbers direct from Sony and MS, then why say the nearly-30M-shipped-to-end-users figure is mostly based on publicly available data? None of it really makes much sense.
So, was the "nearly 30M shipped" in the report itself, and then someone asked her to clarify and she gave the above response? Perhaps she had no idea where the 30M figure came from, and it was her explanation that was ass-sourced? =/
I'm not meaning to accuse her of making shit up, but the things she said don't even seem internally consistent. If she's the source of the "nearly 30M shipped" figure, I wouldn't put much faith in to it, but if she was merely trying to explain the number, it's possible she just didn't do a very good job.
Like I said, I dunno. The whole thing sounds kinda sketchy. It really sounds like she just said "18.5M + 10M = nearly 30M." I don't know where she got the idea this was all sold through, because the last sell-through figure we got from MS was 3M. Maybe MS gave AMD the scoop and told them their sell-through is 11,462,347, but if that were the case, wouldn't they be getting the scoop from Sony as well? And if they have the numbers direct from Sony and MS, then why say the nearly-30M-shipped-to-end-users figure is mostly based on publicly available data? None of it really makes much sense.
So, was the "nearly 30M shipped" in the report itself, and then someone asked her to clarify and she gave the above response? Perhaps she had no idea where the 30M figure came from, and it was her explanation that was ass-sourced? =/
I'm not meaning to accuse her of making shit up, but the things she said don't even seem internally consistent. If she's the source of the "nearly 30M shipped" figure, I wouldn't put much faith in to it, but if she was merely trying to explain the number, it's possible she just didn't do a very good job.
Or maybe it was a complete cock up and they shouldn't have actually said anything, so now she's trying to muddy the water a little?
We are pleased with the full-year performance of the semi-custom business and the strong sell-through reported by our customers. Nearly 30 million Sony and Microsoft consoles have now shipped.
Let me just clarify. In terms of the unit shipments, those are unit shipments from our customers to end users, and most of that is publicly available data from what Sony and Microsoft have published.
Of course they didn't lie to their shareholders nor the public. But the shareholders know best what "sold-through" means!
No... it's in the report. They don't just make stuff up during a conference call.
The line from the report is-
As you can see the report says "Strong sell through reported by our customers" customers referring to MS & Sony and sell through referring to sold to end users. So when the next line says 30m shipped we can assume shipped to end users and this is later clarified in the Q&A session as seen below.
As you can see the report says "Strong sell through reported by our customers" customers referring to MS & Sony and sell through referring to sold to end users. So when the next line says 30m shipped we can assume shipped to end users and this is later clarified in the Q&A session as seen below.
What exactly is the reported number? Is it LTD for the PS4+XB1? Year for 360+PS4+XB1? In the quote it just says "semi-custom business".
PS4 + XB1 LTD sales. (as of December 31st 2014)
Semi Custom SOC is the name of the business AMD run that supply PS4 and Xbox One chips. (CPU + GPU)
Bloodborne, a system seller? Hmmmm. The Souls games never were system sellers, any reason to think bloodborne would be?
Sure, I'll buy that. But if we assume that to be the case, then it would be equally likely they'd get similar statistics from Sony. So if they're getting numbers directly from MS and Sony, then why not say, "These figures are based on information provided by our customers"? Why say, "most of that is publicly available data"? Why even reference public statements if they get the data straight from the source?She said "Mostly" public data. Wouldn't surprise me if AMD did have access to Microsoft sell through figure or at least a close estimate.
Okay, but one would assume whoever wrote the report knows the difference between shipped and sold through, yes? It's possible that both statements are accurate as written, yes? 28M sales on 30M shipments would qualify as strong sell-through, would it not? Both companies telling AMD, "Yeah, sell-through is really good," would qualify as "strong sell-through reported by our customers," even if no sell-through figures were provided, right?As you can see the report says "Strong sell through reported by our customers" customers referring to MS & Sony and sell through referring to sold to end users. So when the next line says 30m shipped we can assume shipped to end users and this is later clarified in the Q&A session as seen below.
As I told before, "sold-throught" was a smart term for shipped.
AMD just confirmed that.
We all could read at the bottom of the sony's statement that it was SCEI estimatives.
Of course, because them have the control over factories and distribution. But nothing more.
It was never real SOLD.
Sure, I'll buy that. But if we assume that to be the case, then it would be equally likely they'd get similar statistics from Sony. So if they're getting numbers directly from MS and Sony, then why not say, "These figures are based on information provided by our customers"? Why say, "most of that is publicly available data"? Why even reference public statements if they get the data straight from the source?
Okay, but one would assume whoever wrote the report knows the difference between shipped and sold through, yes? It's possible that both statements are accurate as written, yes? 28M sales on 30M shipments would qualify as strong sell-through, would it not? Both companies telling AMD, "Yeah, sell-through is really good," would qualify as "strong sell-through reported by our customers," even if no sell-through figures were provided, right?